• Title/Summary/Keyword: Financial market

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Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Nexus in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation Using MGARCH-DCC Model

  • RASHID, Tabassam;BASHIR, Malik Fahim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • The study examines stock prices (LOGKSE) and exchange rate (LOGPK)-Pakistani Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar- interactions in Pakistan. This study employs a multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2012 to October 2020. The results of the Johansen cointegration test show that there is no relationship between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market in the long run. In the short-run, stock exchange returns are affected slightly negatively by the changes in the foreign exchange market, but the foreign exchange market does not seem to be affected by the ups and downs of the stock exchange. The VAR model and Granger Causality show that both markets are strongly influenced by their own lagged values rather than by the lagged values of one another and show weak or no correlation between the two markets. Volatility persistence is observed in both the stock and foreign exchange markets, implying that shocks and past period volatility are major drivers of future volatility in both markets. Thus greater uncertainties today will induce panic and consequently generate higher volatility in the future period. This phenomenon has been observed many times on Pakistan Stock Exchange especially. The results have important implications for local international investors in portfolio diversification decisions and risk hedging strategies.

Effect of Capital Market Return On Insurance Coverage : A Financial Economic Approach (투자수익(投資收益)이 보험수요(保險需要)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관한 이론적(理論的) 고찰(考察))

  • Hong, Soon-Koo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.249-280
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    • 1993
  • Recent financial theory views insurance policies as financial instruments that are traded in markets and whose prices reflect the forces of supply and demand. This article analyzes individual's insurance purchasing behavior along with capital market investment activities, which will provide a more realistic look at the tradeoff between insurance and investment in the individual's budget constraint. It is shown that the financial economic concept of insurance cost should reflect the opportunity cost of insurance premium. The author demonstrates the importance of riskless and risky financial assets in reaching an equilibrium insurance premium. In addition, the paper also investigates how the investment income could affect the four established theorems on traditional insurance literature. At the present time in Korea, the price deregulation is being debated as the most important current issue in insurance industry. In view of the results of this paper, insurance companies should recognize investment income in pricing their coverage if insurance prices are deregulated. Otherwise. price competition may force insurance companies to restrict coverage or to leave the market.

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The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

A Study on the financial condition analysis of domestic construction companies (국내 건설기업들의 자금실태 분석)

  • Kim, Min-Hyung;Shim, Hyung-Seok;Jung, Yong-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2012
  • This study is conducted so as to understand actual condition of financial difficulties confronted by construction companies in the recession of real estate market which has been continued since the financial crisis started from USA in the second half of 2008, and provide fundamental data for the establishment of policy direction. Compared with this actual condition survey with a 2008 investigation, it seems that the practice of financial institutions or credit evaluation relating parts among sections, which were pointed as problems in such investigation, are resolved to some extent. It seems that there are many causes to aggravate financial conditions as pointed at this time and such causes are related to self-problems, which are inherent to the construction business, such as the smooth settlement of construction payment, the securement of new construction projects, the limitation according to the risk inherent to the construction business, and the industry vision, etc.

A Study on Exporting Small & Medium Enterprises Based on Accident Types of Derivatives Transactions: Focus on Exporting Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises with KIKO Currency Option (파생상품의 투자 리스크 요인 분석을 통한 중소수출 기업의 환리스크 관리 방안 - KIKO를 통해 살펴본 국내 중소제조업체를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Young-Hun
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.89-105
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    • 2016
  • 2008 began with the American financial crisis which gave way to the liquidity crisis (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) situation in which 'the withdrawal of investment initiated from the insufficiency of the U.S. subprime mortgage loan companies', 'the large size loss situation of the financial company (Bear Stearns) due to the American structured bond insufficiency' and the second half opening part national debt mortgage company. Within the American financial crisis was propagated the crisis of international derivatives. Due to this, the withdrawal of foreign investment progressed in the interior of a country with the considerable. By the end of 2007, the exchange rate fluctuation was absorbed in the domestic financial circle on the belief the potentiality of the domestic financial market had been growing drastically through the expansion of the foreign currency debt according to this and it came to the defence but while the exchange rate jumped up to the dollar shortage according to the international crisis, the small and medium companies making the banks and exchange rate-related derivatives contract were going bankrupt due to the derivatives loss. The small and medium factories establish the bank exchange rate-related derivatives has nose (KIKO), pivot (PIVOT), and snowball (Snowball) etc. at that time and the damage which it is the KIKO grasped at 6 end of the months in 2008 caused by reaches to 1 thousand billion 4 thousand hundred million dollars. Small and medium companies in which the dollar which it has to denounce among small and medium companies bearing the KIKO contract in fact with the Knock-In generation city bank exceeds the amount of sales were known to be 68 enterprises among 480 enterprises. This paper departs in this awareness of a problem and tries to look into the risk factor of the derivatives, including nose and study the essential ring risk management plan of small and medium manufacturer.

The Strategic Financial Reporting: Evidence from Directors' and Officers' Liability Insurance (전략적 재무보고: 임원배상책임보험제도를 이용한 연구)

  • Choi, Jeong-mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the association between financial reporting strategy and the directors' and officers' liability insurance. Since D&O insurance protects officers and directors against the risks of shareholder litigation, it is possible that, because of moral hazard, managers will be more willing to participate in opportunistic financial reporting such as earnings manipulation when they are covered by a generous D&O insurance policy. This paper examines the association between D&O insurance and financial reporting, specifically whether the purchase of D&O insurance affects earnings manipulation. On the other side, the firms engage earnings management are willing to purchase D&O insurance, this study tests whether earnings manipulation affects D&O purchases using listed firms in Korean stock market from 2006 to 2008. This paper finds that firms with higher discretionary accruals are less likely to purchase D&O insurance implies that managers who are participating in earnings manipulation are not willing to purchase D&O insurance. The relation between discretionary accruals and D&O is significantly negative which indicate D&O insurance purchase does not trigger earnings manipulation rather it alleviates opportunistic reporting behavior.

Effects of the Instability of International Financial Market on Port Import from China in Korea (국제금융시장의 불안정성이 한국의 대중국 항만 수입에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom;Lee, Min-Hui
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the relationship between port import from China and macroeconomic variables such as international financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production during the period 2000-2009. I employ GPH cointegration methodology since the model must be stationary to avoid the spurious results. The empirical results show that our model is stationary as well as mean-reverting. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information regarding the responses of the port import to the shocks economic variables such as financial crisis, exchange rate, and industrial production. The results show that the response of port import to exchange rate and financial crisis declines at the first and dies out slowly.

How can we narrow the digital divide among SMEs in APEC member economies? (중소기업 정보화 수준 격차 해소방안에 관한 국가 간 비교연구)

  • Kwon, Sun-Dong;Yang, Hee-Dong;Sohn, Yong-Yeop;Lee, Seong-Bong;Sirh, Jin-Young;Cho, Taek-Hee
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.79-106
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    • 2005
  • This study, by adopting case study methodology, is focused on examining the present state and analyzing the cause of the digital divide, and suggesting policies for bridging the divide, specifically in view of SMEs. We have taken cases of manufacturing companies, visiting and interviewing 18 SMEs in 10 APEC member economies which show sharp difference in usage of ICT. In order to analyze the digital gap among SMEs, we used 5 variables that are composed of computer hardware, computer software, Internet, readiness of ICT, and performance of ICT adoption, while categorizing the cases into low and high tier based on the national ICT index. From a computer hardware perspective, the high tier (0.66) has almost double the number of PC’s per employee, compared with the low tiers (0.34). This gap can be explained by financial availability of low income and high tariff in the developing economies. In the computer software perspective, the SMEs in the low tier had some restrictive use of computer applications such as financial and accounting management and document management, while those in the high tier enjoyed more diversity in the use of applications such as inventory management, sales management, financial and accounting management, procurement management, CRM, and ERP. In view of the readiness of ICT, the difference in ICT infrastructure and financial status between the low and high tier was far wider than any other variables. As a result of ICT adoption, SMEs benefited in view of learning and growth, internal business processes, customer service, and financial affairs. To effectively bridge the digital divide between the low and high tier, actions such as setting up a secondary market of used computers among cooperating developed and developing countries, developing and diffusing good business applications, and building speedy, low-cost telecommunication infrastructures should be taken.

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Determining Personal Credit Rating through Voice Analysis: Case of P2P loan borrowers

  • Lee, Sangmin
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.3627-3641
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    • 2021
  • Fintech, which stands for financial technology, is growing fast globally since the economic crisis hit the United States in 2008. Fintech companies are striving to secure a competitive advantage over existing financial services by providing efficient financial services utilizing the latest technologies. Fintech companies can be classified into several areas according to their business solutions. Among the Fintech sector, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending companies are leading the domestic Fintech industry. P2P lending is a method of lending funds directly to individuals or businesses without an official financial institution participating as an intermediary in the transaction. The rapid growth of P2P lending companies has now reached a level that threatens secondary financial markets. However, as the growth rate increases, so does the potential risk factor. In addition to government laws to protect and regulate P2P lending, further measures to reduce the risk of P2P lending accidents have yet to keep up with the pace of market growth. Since most P2P lenders do not implement their own credit rating system, they rely on personal credit scores provided by credit rating agencies such as the NICE credit information service in Korea. However, it is hard for P2P lending companies to figure out the intentional loan default of the borrower since most borrowers' credit scores are not excellent. This study analyzed the voices of telephone conversation between the loan consultant and the borrower in order to verify if it is applicable to determine the personal credit score. Experimental results show that the change in pitch frequency and change in voice pitch frequency can be reliably identified, and this difference can be used to predict the loan defaults or use it to determine the underlying default risk. It has also been shown that parameters extracted from sample voice data can be used as a determinant for classifying the level of personal credit ratings.

The Prominence of Financial Considerations on Housing Investors' Purchase Decisions

  • DANANJOYO, Radyan;CAHAYA, Fitra Roman;RIYADH, Hosam Alden
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.869-875
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    • 2020
  • As a basic element for sustainable development, the residential housing industry is vital and fundamental for every country in the world. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of financial considerations on house purchase decisions by housing investors in Auckland, New Zealand. 110 completed questionnaires were statistically analyzed. For testing the proposed hypotheses, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was used. The results show that house prices, income, and credit accessibility significantly influence housing investors' purchase decisions in a positive direction. It appears that more expensive houses offer more promising returns such that housing investors having higher levels of income and access to loans are brave enough to invest in such houses. This study aims to present the key factors influencing house purchase decisions from the viewpoint of housing investors as fundamental groups of stakeholders in the property market, which is rarely examined in previous studies. The implication of this study is to provide guidelines for housing regulators in New Zealand to develop affordable housing prices through the availability of land banks. This study also offers practical contributions to housing investors, particularly by providing key guidelines to make effective investment decisions.