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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Prediction of commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvements according to the styles of loving using a datamining technique (데이터마이닝을 활용한 사랑의 형태에 따른 연인관계 몰입수준 및 관계 지속여부 예측)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2016
  • Successful relationship with loving partners is one of the most important factors in life. In psychology, there have been some previous researches studying the factors influencing romantic relationships. However, most of these researches were performed based on statistical analysis; thus they have limitations in analyzing complex non-linear relationships or rules based reasoning. This research analyzes commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvement according to styles of loving using a datamining technique as well as statistical methods. In this research, we consider six different styles of loving - 'eros', 'ludus', 'stroge', 'pragma', 'mania' and 'agape' which influence romantic relationships between lovers, besides the factors suggested by the previous researches. These six types of love are defined by Lee (1977) as follows: 'eros' is romantic, passionate love; 'ludus' is a game-playing or uncommitted love; 'storge' is a slow developing, friendship-based love; 'pragma' is a pragmatic, practical, mutually beneficial relationship; 'mania' is an obsessive or possessive love and, lastly, 'agape' is a gentle, caring, giving type of love, brotherly love, not concerned with the self. In order to do this research, data from 105 heterosexual couples were collected. Using the data, a linear regression method was first performed to find out the important factors associated with a commitment to partners. The result shows that 'satisfaction', 'eros' and 'agape' are significant factors associated with the commitment level for both male and female. Interestingly, in male cases, 'agape' has a greater effect on commitment than 'eros'. On the other hand, in female cases, 'eros' is a more significant factor than 'agape' to commitment. In addition to that, 'investment' of the male is also crucial factor for male commitment. Next, decision tree analysis was performed to find out the characteristics of high commitment couples and low commitment couples. In order to build decision tree models in this experiment, 'decision tree' operator in the datamining tool, Rapid Miner was used. The experimental result shows that males having a high satisfaction level in relationship show a high commitment level. However, even though a male may not have a high satisfaction level, if he has made a lot of financial or mental investment in relationship, and his partner shows him a certain amount of 'agape', then he also shows a high commitment level to the female. In the case of female, a women having a high 'eros' and 'satisfaction' level shows a high commitment level. Otherwise, even though a female may not have a high satisfaction level, if her partner shows a certain amount of 'mania' then the female also shows a high commitment level. Finally, this research built a prediction model to establish whether the relationship will persist or break up using a decision tree. The result shows that the most important factor influencing to the break up is a 'narcissistic tendency' of the male. In addition to that, 'satisfaction', 'investment' and 'mania' of both male and female also affect a break up. Interestingly, while the 'mania' level of a male works positively to maintain the relationship, that of a female has a negative influence. The contribution of this research is adopting a new technique of analysis using a datamining method for psychology. In addition, the results of this research can provide useful advice to couples for building a harmonious relationship with each other. This research has several limitations. First, the experimental data was sampled based on oversampling technique to balance the size of each classes. Thus, it has a limitation of evaluating performances of the predictive models objectively. Second, the result data, whether the relationship persists of not, was collected relatively in short periods - 6 months after the initial data collection. Lastly, most of the respondents of the survey is in their 20's. In order to get more general results, we would like to extend this research to general populations.

A Study on Analysis of Investment Effects of Farm Mechanization, Korea -Mainly on the Case Study of Saemaeul Farm Mechanization Groups in Nonsan Area, Chungnam Province- (농업기계화(農業機械化)의 투자효과분석(投資效果分析)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -충남논산지역(忠南論山地域) 새마을 기계화영농단(機械化營農團)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Gwan Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.164-185
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    • 1987
  • The Korean economy has been developed rapidly in the course of implementing the five year economic development plans since 1962. Accordingly the industrial and employment structure have been changed from the traditional agriculture to modem industrial economy. In the course of implementing export oriented industrialization policies, rural farm economy has been encountered labour shortage owing to rural farm population drain to urban areas, rural wage hike and pressure on farm operation costs, and possibility of farm productivity decrease. To cope with the above problems the Korean government has supplied farm machinery such as power tillers, tractors, transplanters, binders, combines, dryers and etc. by means of the favorable credit support and subsidies. The main objectives of this study are to identify the investment effects of farm mechanization such as B/C and Internal Rate of Return by machinery and operation patterns, changes of labour requirement per 10a for rice culture since 1965, partial farm budget of rice with and without mechanization, and estimation labour input with full mechanization. To achieve the objectives Saemaeul farm mechanization groups, common ownership and operation, and farms with private ownership and operation were surveyed mainly in Nonsan granary area, Chungnam province. The results of this study are as follows 1. The national average of labor input per 10a of paddy has decreased from 150.1Hr in 1965 to 87.2Hr in 1985 which showes 42% decrease of labour inputs. On the other hand the hours of labour input in Nonsan area have also decreased from 150.1Hr to 92.8Hr, 38% of that in 1965, during the same periods. 2. The possible labor saving hours per 10a of Paddy was estimated at 60 hours by substituting machine power for labor forces in the works of plowing, puddling, transplanting, harvesting and threshing, transporting and drying The labor savings were derived from 92.8 hours in 1986 deducting 30 hours of labor input with full mechanization in Nonsan area. 3. Social benefits of farm mechanization were estimated at 124,734won/10a including increment of rice (10%): 34,064won,labour saving: 65,800won,savings of conventional farm implements: 18,000 won and savings of animal power: 6,870won. 4. Rental charges by works prevailing in the area were 12,000won for land preparation, 15,000won for transplanting with seedlings, 19,500won for combine works and 6,000won for drying paddy. 5. Farm income per 10a of paddy with and without mechanization were amounted to 247,278won and 224,768won respectively. 6. Social rate of return of the machinery were estimated at more than 50% in all operation patterns. On the other hand internal rate of return of the machinery except tractors were also more than 50% but IRR of tractors by operation patterns were equivalent to 0 to 9%. From the view point of farmers financial status, private owner-operation of tractors is considered uneconomical. Tractor operation by Saemaeul mechanization groups would be economical considering the government subsidy, 40% of tractor price. 7. Farmers recommendations for the government that gained through field operation of farm machinery are to train maintenance technology for rural youth, to standardize the necessary parts of machinery, to implement price tag system, to intercede spare parts and provide marketing information to farmers by rural institutions as RDA,NACF,GUN office and FLIA.

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Policy Change and Innovation of Textile Industry in Daegu·Kyungbuk Region (대구·경북지역 섬유산업의 정책변화와 혁신과제)

  • Shin, Jin-Kyo;Kim, Yo-Han
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.223-248
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    • 2012
  • This study analyses support policy and structural change of textile industry in Daegu Kyungbuk region, and suggests major issues for textile industry's innovation. In Daegu Kyungbuk, it was 1999 that a policy, so called Milano Project, in order to promote a textile industry was devised. In 2004, the Regional Industrial Promotion Plan was devised. The plan was born from a view point of establishing a regional innovation system and of promoting the innovative clusters under a knowledge based economy. After then, the Regional Industry Promotion Project or Regional Strategic Industry Promotion Project became a core of regional textile industrial policy. Research results indicated that the first stage Milano project (1999-2003) showed both positive and negative effects. There were no long-term development plan, clear vision and strategy. But, core industrial infrastructure for differentiated product development, such as New product Development Support Center and Dyeing Design Practical Application Center, was constructed. The second stage Daegu Textile Industry Promotion Plan (2004-2008) displayed a significant technological performance and new product sales with the assistance of Kyungbuk province. Also, textile industry revealed positive fruits such as financial structure, productivity, and profitability as a result of strong restructuring. In industrial structure, there was a important change from clothe textile material to industry textile material. Most of textile companies did not showed high capability in CEO's technology innovation intention, entrepreneurship, R&D and human resource competency in compare with other industry. We suggested that Daegu Kyungbuk has to select and concentrate on the high-tech textile material and living textile for sustainable development and competitiveness. We also proposed a confidence and cooperation based innovation network and company oriented innovation cluster.

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A Case Study on Mechanism Factors for Result Creation of Informatization of IT Service Company (IT서비스 기업의 정보화 성과 창출을 위한 메커니즘 요인 사례 연구)

  • Choi, Hae-Lyong;Gu, Ja-Won
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2017
  • In the meantime, research on corporate informatization focuses on the completeness of information technology itself and its financial effects, so there is insufficient research on whether information technology can support business strategy. It is necessary to verify whether the management strategy implementation of the company can be led through the informatization of the enterprise and the relation between the main mechanism factors and the informatization performance. In this study, what a mechanism factor is applied in the process of result creation of informatization from three mechanism perspectives such as selecting mechanism, learning mechanism and coordinating mechanism with cases of representative domestic IT company and what an importance mechanism factors have been ascertained. This study results in 8 propositions. For a main agent of companies, securement of information capability of organizations has been selected to realize informatization results and investment of informatization has been selected to solve organizational decentralization problems as the most important factor. Additionally, as competition in the industry gets fierce, investment on informatization has been changed to a utility way of implementation of strategies and decision on investment has been made through the official process and information technology. Differentiated company capability has been made based on acquisition of technical knowledge and company information has been expanded to its whole employees through the information system. Also, informatization change management and outside subcontractor management have been acknowledged as an important adjustment factor of company. The first implication of this study is that since case studies on mechanism factors that preceding studies on informatization results did not empirically cover have directly been dealt with based on experiences of executives in charge of business and in charge of informatization, this study can provide practical views about factors that should be mainly managed for informatization results of IT companies. Secondly, since ser-M framework has been applied for IT companies for the first time, this study can academically contribute to companies in other fields about main mechanism factors for result creation of informatization based on deeper understanding and empirical cases.

The Excluded from Public Pension : Problem, Cause and Policy Measures (공적연금의 사각지대 : 실태, 원인과 정책방안)

  • Seok, Jae-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.53
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    • pp.285-310
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    • 2003
  • As National Pension Scheme for all nation complete in 1999 through expanding application in cities, the public pension including Public Occupational Pension became main axis of old-age income maintenance. After 4years since then, now, it is only half of total National Pension insured persons who have been qualified to receive pension through participate and contribution. The other half of National Pension insured is left the excluded from public pension. This paper is intended to identify scale and characteristics of the excluded from public pension and to analysis its cause, and to explore policy measures for solving the excluded's problem. for current recipients over 60 years old generation, the its excluded's scale is no less than 86% of the old over 60 years. The probability of getting in the excluded is high in case of old elderly and female for current elderly generation. For future recipients 18-59 years working generation, the its excluded's scale is no less than 61% of the 18-59 years total population. The probability of getting in the excluded is high in case of 18-29 years and female for current working generation. As logistic regression analysis determinant factor of paying or not pension contribution for future recipients, it appear that probability of getting in the excluded for current working generation is high in case of younger old, lower education attainment, irregular employee, working at agriculture forestry fishery sector, construction sector, wholesale retail trade restaurants hotels sector, financial institution and insurance real estate renting and leasing sector in comparison with manufacturing sector, occpaying at elementary occupation, professionals technicians and associate professionals, sale and service workers, plant machine operators and assemblers, legislators senior officials and managers in comparison with clerks. The Policy measures for the current recipient old generation have need to reinforce supplemental role of Senior's pension(non-contribution pension) until maturing of public pension, because of no having chance of public pension participants for them. And the Policy measures for the future recipient working generation have need to restructure social security fundamentally corresponding with social-economic change as labour market and family structure etc. The pension system has need to change from one earner one pension to one citizen one pension with citizenship rights. At this point, public pension have need to manage with combining insurance's contribution principle and citizenship principle financing by taxes. Then public pension will become substantially universal social network for old-age income maintenance and we can find real solution for the excluded from.

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Public Attitudes Toward Dying with Dignity and Hospice.Palliative Care (품위 있는 죽음과 호스피스.완화의료에 대한 일반 국민들의 태도)

  • Yun, Young-Ho;Rhee, Young-Sun;Nm, So-Young;Chae, Yu-Mie;Heo, Dae-Seuk;Lee, So-Woo;Hong, Young-Seon;Kim, Si-Young;Lee, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: Even though there have been various efforts for the dying with dignity of terminal patients, no researches focused on the public attitudes. Methods: In February 2004, we sampled 1,055 persons over 20 years of age from the sixteen cities and local districts of Korea through the quota sampling method according to their gender, age, and location. We conducted a telephone survey with a structured questionnaire on the attitudes toward dying with dignity and hospice palliative care. Results: The most important conditions for the dying with dignity on the patients' views were 'removing burdens for other people' (27.8%). Over the half of the samples chose their home as a preference for place of death (54.8%). 82.3% of the respondents agreed to the idea of withdrawing the medically futile life-sustaining treatment. Fifty seven percents of the answered public said that they intended to use the hospice service in case of terminal illness. Eighty percents thought that health care insurance should cover hospice service, and 80.9% gave positive response to the necessity of advance directives. Respondents emphasized 'the financial support for the terminal patients' (29.8%), 'covering hospice service with health insurance' (16.5%), and 'the education and public relation for settlement of desirable dying culture and hospice service' (15.9%) as the roles and responsibilities of the government for the dying with dignity. Conclusion: This study shows that there is a possibility of significant consensus on hospice and palliative care system for the dying with dignity of patients and reduction of the suffering for their families among the general public.

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A Study on the New Branding and Customer Integration of the M&A Process : Focused on the Brand Name and Membership System of Two Companies (인수합병 과정의 브랜드 및 고객 통합에 관한 연구 : 백화점의 브랜드 네임 및 회원 통합을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Gyu-Bae
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2012
  • Many studies have focused on the importance of organizational integration when companies try to achieve growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). However, there has been little research that focuses on the new branding or customer base integration of the M&A process, despite the fact that this integration is very important for achieving M&A goals and business performance in industries such as retail. The purpose of this study is to provide an M&A case study of the retail industry, focused especially on the new branding and customer integration of two department stores. This study examined key integration processes in terms of brand name and membership systems of both companies by examining how the merged company achieved its new branding and the integration of its membership systems. The methodology of this research is the case study, which is used in both normative and empirical studies for distribution research in Korea. This research analyzes the case of both new branding and customer membership systems of the two companies. The new branding initiatives of this case centered on decision making including brand extension and brand naming. The customer membership integration of the two companies is analyzed on the basis of the customer reward programs that include both financial and service rewards. This study shows the success factors of new branding and customer integration in the M&A process in terms of achieving marketing goals and business performance as follows: First, companies should identify the integration areas by analyzing the brand and membership of both companies and make a balanced decision for both the customer and company. Second, the goals of new branding and membership integration in the M&A process should not emphasize business efficiency from a short-term perspective but rather should consider brand power and business synergy from a long-term perspective. Third, the post-merger integration process of the brand or customer areas requires not only the organized execution of integration tasks but also follow-up programs for changes in business strategy and marketing-related programs to realize the synergy effects of integrated organization. Although this study provides a detailed review and analysis of the new branding and customer integration processes in post-merger integration and in identifying the primary decision-making areas of these processes, there are some limitations requiring further research that may overcome or compensate for these limitations. The suggested future research areas are as follows: First, since this research is a case study of only one M&A, it makes few theoretical contributions such as new propositions or theories or possibilities for generalization. This limitation can be overcome through further research using multiple cases, which may lead to new propositions. Second, the methodology of this study lacks sufficient rigor in terms of its analytic approach because this case study was developed and analyzed descriptively. Further research is needed to compensate for these limitations, such as using a theory-based approach or comparative analysis approach that makes case analysis more systematic.

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Features of International Marriage of Vietnamese Immigrant Women and Plans for Institutional Improvement (베트남결혼이주여성의 혼인의 특징과 국제결혼의 제도적 개선 방안)

  • Moon, Heung-Ahn
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.44
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    • pp.757-799
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    • 2013
  • Ever since Korea and Vietnam reestablished diplomatic relations, the two countries'bond has become stronger than ever, augmenting the range of exchange between them in almost every possible field including politics, economy, society, and culture at such a high speed. Among many, an increase in number of Vietnamese immigrant women in international marriage is worthy of close attention. Since 2010, Vietnamese has topped the proportion of total foreign women married to Korean men, having surpassed Chinese. Nonetheless, the quick international marriage between Korean men and Vietnamese women, which usually happens without sufficient time to get to know about different cultures and languages, has not only raised problems for people concerned, but numerous social issues as well. Recognizing these problems, a number of government departments have provided various support on policies and legal issues toprotect multicultural families as a means of social integration and settlement support. Nevertheless, the support policies until now have been generalizing all of the immigrant women in international marriage as people subject to protection. Thus, considering every immigrant women as people in need, and trying to help them with various social issues have caused the government a high cost and low efficiency. This thesis emphasizes the point that through the cases of Vietnamese immigrant women in international marriage, there should be a specific support plan for specific people in need, reflecting various traits of different cultures and societies, in order to ease their settlement in Korea. Moreover, it suggests detailed plans for improvements on legal and institutional problems. Although the Vietnamese government forbids commercial agents for international marriage, many of agencies are still active and to help the immigrant women, who desire to return and resettle in Vietnam in case of divorce, this thesis suggests legal and institutional remedies for Korean and Vietnamese government. The composition of the thesis follows below: Part II on social and cultural traits of international marriage between Korean men and Vietnamese women. Part III on institutional problems and plans for improvements regarding settlement of immigrant women in international marriage. Part IV on legal and institutional problems and plans for improvements regarding divorced immigrant women and their return to Vietnam. Part V on conclusion. Divorce is not a flaw anymore nowadays, but in case of Vietnamese immigrant women ininternational marriage, an inadequate legal system hampers their resettlement process. Cases of not being ableto remove their own names from the family register due to poor financial and legal abilities are often identified and it is both the Vietnamese and Korean governments'duty to acquit their ethical responsibilities by seeking ways to institutionally and financially support them.

A Study on the Restructuration of Norm System in the Field of ICT for the Smart Media (Smart미디어시대 정보통신·미디어(ICT) 분야 규범체계의 재구조화에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.44
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    • pp.33-62
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, the consolidation of ICT basic legislation and ICT special legislation concerning "Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning" and "Korea Communications Commission" which came on the back of governmental reorganization in recent years is discussed in the theoretical and practical aspect. Development of "data communication technology" innovatively changed the method of livelihood of mankind, the emergence of network under global dimension provided financial social benefit and posed a challenge and a threat at the same time. Form digital revolution human kind can expect to receive many important blessings. Nevertheless, there are many advantages of development of technology by digital revolution, cyberspace like online media, internet etc. has realistically many problems that must be solved. To maximum positive aspects like the expansion of freedom of expression and creating plan of economy by the advance of transmission technology is needed. And to minimize side effects of informatization is required more. The First, Special Act on ICT has an adaptation in normative standardization to be fit in media convergence beyond convergence of broadcasting and telecommunications. Henceforth, there must be established a legal basis for the achievement of protection of economic evolution and freedom of speech in digital media, information, communication technology and content development. The second, the government action is to accomplish economic development and freedom of information in structural aspect of norm. Therefore minimizing normative problem by reorganization of organization remains clearly unresolved in politics. The third, Special Act on ICT must be basic law covering info-communications field, pay telecommunication and media contents field. The forth, from a technical point of view, net neutrality, conflict of interest for digital content and so on can be fixed easily. Special Act on ICT must not only pursuit of development of industry. Special Act on ICT and pursuit of enhancing quality of life of people and preparing program to promote democratization. From now on, we need to make powerful nation of information& communications technology and in information human rights protection field got to be one step ahead of others with reference to appear all the various aspects must be brought together in the discussion of legislation process of Special Act on ICT.