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Research on rapid source term estimation in nuclear accident emergency decision for pressurized water reactor based on Bayesian network

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Zhang, Liguo;Yuan, Diping;Xiao, Yiqing
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2534-2546
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.

A Groundwater Potential Map for the Nakdonggang River Basin (낙동강권역의 지하수 산출 유망도 평가)

  • Soonyoung Yu;Jaehoon Jung;Jize Piao;Hee Sun Moon;Heejun Suk;Yongcheol Kim;Dong-Chan Koh;Kyung-Seok Ko;Hyoung-Chan Kim;Sang-Ho Moon;Jehyun Shin;Byoung Ohan Shim;Hanna Choi;Kyoochul Ha
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.71-89
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    • 2023
  • A groundwater potential map (GPM) was built for the Nakdonggang River Basin based on ten variables, including hydrogeologic unit, fault-line density, depth to groundwater, distance to surface water, lineament density, slope, stream drainage density, soil drainage, land cover, and annual rainfall. To integrate the thematic layers for GPM, the criteria were first weighted using the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and then overlaid using the Technique for Ordering Preferences by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model. Finally, the groundwater potential was categorized into five classes (very high (VH), high (H), moderate (M), low (L), very low (VL)) and verified by examining the specific capacity of individual wells on each class. The wells in the area categorized as VH showed the highest median specific capacity (5.2 m3/day/m), while the wells with specific capacity < 1.39 m3/day/m were distributed in the areas categorized as L or VL. The accuracy of GPM generated in the work looked acceptable, although the specific capacity data were not enough to verify GPM in the studied large watershed. To create GPMs for the determination of high-yield well locations, the resolution and reliability of thematic maps should be improved. Criterion values for groundwater potential should be established when machine learning or statistical models are used in the GPM evaluation process.

Case study on the lake-land combined seismic survey for underground LPG storage construction (LPG 지하저장기지 건설을 위한 수륙혼합 탄성파탐사 사례)

  • Cha Seong-Soo;Park Keun-Pil;Lee Ho-Young;Lee Hee-Il;Kim Ho-Young
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.101-125
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    • 2002
  • A lake seismic survey was carried out to investigate possible geohazards for construction of the underground LPG storage at Namyang Lake. The proposed survey site has a land-lake combined geography and furthermore water depth of the lake is shallow. Therefore, various seismic methods such as marine single channel high resolution seismic reflection survey, sonobuoy refraction survey, land refraction survey and land-lake combined refraction survey were applied. Total survey amounts are 34 line-km of high resolution lake seismic survey, 14 lines of sonobuoy refraction survey, 890 m of land refraction survey and 8 lines of land-lake combined refraction survey. During the reflection survey, there were severe water reverberations from the lake bottom obscured subsurface profiling. These strong multiple events appeared in most of the survey area except the northern and southern area near the embankment where seems to be accumulated mainly mud dominated depositions. The sonobuoy refraction profiles also showed the same Phenomena as those of reflection survey. Meanwhile the results of the land-lake combined refraction survey showed relatively better qualities. However, the land refraction survey did not so due to low velocity soil layer and electrical noise. Summarized results from the lake seismic survey are that acoustic basement with relatively flat pattern appeared 30m below water level and showed three types of bedrock such as fresh, moderately weathered and weathered type. According to the results of the combined refraction survey, a velocity distribution pattern of the lake bottom shows three types of seismic velocity zone such as >4.5 km/s, 4.5-4.0km/s and <4.0km/s. The major fault lineament in the area showed NW-SE trend which was different from the Landsat image interpretation. A drilling was confirmed estimated faults by seismic survey.

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An Intelligence Support System Research on KTX Rolling Stock Failure Using Case-based Reasoning and Text Mining (사례기반추론과 텍스트마이닝 기법을 활용한 KTX 차량고장 지능형 조치지원시스템 연구)

  • Lee, Hyung Il;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-73
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    • 2020
  • KTX rolling stocks are a system consisting of several machines, electrical devices, and components. The maintenance of the rolling stocks requires considerable expertise and experience of maintenance workers. In the event of a rolling stock failure, the knowledge and experience of the maintainer will result in a difference in the quality of the time and work to solve the problem. So, the resulting availability of the vehicle will vary. Although problem solving is generally based on fault manuals, experienced and skilled professionals can quickly diagnose and take actions by applying personal know-how. Since this knowledge exists in a tacit form, it is difficult to pass it on completely to a successor, and there have been studies that have developed a case-based rolling stock expert system to turn it into a data-driven one. Nonetheless, research on the most commonly used KTX rolling stock on the main-line or the development of a system that extracts text meanings and searches for similar cases is still lacking. Therefore, this study proposes an intelligence supporting system that provides an action guide for emerging failures by using the know-how of these rolling stocks maintenance experts as an example of problem solving. For this purpose, the case base was constructed by collecting the rolling stocks failure data generated from 2015 to 2017, and the integrated dictionary was constructed separately through the case base to include the essential terminology and failure codes in consideration of the specialty of the railway rolling stock sector. Based on a deployed case base, a new failure was retrieved from past cases and the top three most similar failure cases were extracted to propose the actual actions of these cases as a diagnostic guide. In this study, various dimensionality reduction measures were applied to calculate similarity by taking into account the meaningful relationship of failure details in order to compensate for the limitations of the method of searching cases by keyword matching in rolling stock failure expert system studies using case-based reasoning in the precedent case-based expert system studies, and their usefulness was verified through experiments. Among the various dimensionality reduction techniques, similar cases were retrieved by applying three algorithms: Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF), Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA), and Doc2Vec to extract the characteristics of the failure and measure the cosine distance between the vectors. The precision, recall, and F-measure methods were used to assess the performance of the proposed actions. To compare the performance of dimensionality reduction techniques, the analysis of variance confirmed that the performance differences of the five algorithms were statistically significant, with a comparison between the algorithm that randomly extracts failure cases with identical failure codes and the algorithm that applies cosine similarity directly based on words. In addition, optimal techniques were derived for practical application by verifying differences in performance depending on the number of dimensions for dimensionality reduction. The analysis showed that the performance of the cosine similarity was higher than that of the dimension using Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF) and Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA) and the performance of algorithm using Doc2Vec was the highest. Furthermore, in terms of dimensionality reduction techniques, the larger the number of dimensions at the appropriate level, the better the performance was found. Through this study, we confirmed the usefulness of effective methods of extracting characteristics of data and converting unstructured data when applying case-based reasoning based on which most of the attributes are texted in the special field of KTX rolling stock. Text mining is a trend where studies are being conducted for use in many areas, but studies using such text data are still lacking in an environment where there are a number of specialized terms and limited access to data, such as the one we want to use in this study. In this regard, it is significant that the study first presented an intelligent diagnostic system that suggested action by searching for a case by applying text mining techniques to extract the characteristics of the failure to complement keyword-based case searches. It is expected that this will provide implications as basic study for developing diagnostic systems that can be used immediately on the site.

Structural Evolution of the Eastern Margin of Korea: Implications for the Opening of the East Sea (Japan Sea) (한국 동쪽 대륙주변부의 구조적 진화와 동해의 형성)

  • Kim Han-Joon;Jou Hyeong-Tae;Lee Gwang-Hoon;Yoo Hai-Soo;Park Gun-Tae
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.3 s.178
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    • pp.235-253
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    • 2006
  • We interpreted marine seismic profiles in conjunction with swath bathymetric and magnetic data to investigate rifting to breakup processes at the Korean margin leading to the separation of the Japan Arc. The Korean margin is rimmed by fundamental elements of rift architecture comprizing a seaward succession of a rift basin and an uplifted rift flank passing into the slope, typical of a passive continental margin. In the northern part, rifting occurred in the Korea Plateau, a continental fragment extended and partially segmented from the Korean Peninsula, that provided a relatively broader zone of extension resulting in a number of rifts. Two distinguished rift basins (Onnuri and Bandal Basins) in the Korea Plateau we bounded by major synthetic and smaller antithetic faults, creating wide and symmetric profiles. The large-offset border fault zones of these basins have convex dip slopes and demonstrate a zig-zag arrangement along strike. In contrast, the southern margin is engraved along its length with a single narrow rift basin (Hupo Basin) that is an elongated asymmetric half-graben. Rifting at the Korean margin was primarily controlled by normal faulting resulting from extension in the west and southeast directions orthogonal to the inferred line of breakup along the base of the slope rather than strike-slip deformation. Although rifting involved no significant volcanism, the inception of sea floor spreading documents a pronounced volcanic phase which seems to reflect slab-induced asthenospheric upwelling as well as rift-induced convection particularly in the narrow southern margin. We suggest that structural and igneous evolution of the Korean margin can be explained by the processes occurring at the passive continental margin with magmatism intensified by asthenospheric upwelling in a back-arc setting.

Mineralogy and Geochemistry of Ultramafic Rocks from the Singok Area, Western Part of Chungnam (충남 서부 신곡 지역에 분포하는 초염기성암의 광물조성 및 지구화학)

  • 송석환;송윤섭
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.395-415
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    • 2001
  • In the Singok area, western part of Chungcheongnam-Do, two ultramafic ma~ses, Singok mass and Kaewol mass, occur as isolated lenticular bodies in the Precambrian Kyeonggi gneiss complex. The masses extend for several hundred meter to NNE direction, parallel to the main fault line of this area. The rocks are dunite and harzburgite, but partially and absolutely serpentinized. They dominantly show porphyroclastic and recrystallized textures with equigranular-mosaic and protogranular textures. In spite of differences among the alteration and metamorphism, the ultramafic masses are characterized by varying amounts of high fosteritic olivine ($Fo_{0.88-0.93}$), magnesian pyroxene ($En_{0.93-0.97}$), and tremolitic to tschermakitic hornblende with minor spinel, serpentine, chlorite, calcite, magnetite, phlogopite and talc. It is compared with adjacent gneiss complex containing amphibole, biotite, plagioclase, alkali-feldspar and quartz. Geochemically, these rocks show high magnesium number (Mg>90.38), and transitional element (Ni=595-2480, Cr==IOlO-4400, Co=36-120 ppm), low alkali element ($Na_{2}O$<0.3, $K_{2}O$<0.11, $Al_{2}O_3$<2.95 wt%) and depleted incompatible element contents, which is compared with adjacent rocks (Mg < 83.69, $Na_{2}O$=1.02-3.42 wt%, $K_{2}O$=O.67-5.65 wt%, $Al_{2}O_3$=9.15-16.86 wt%, Ni < 435 ppm, Cr < 1440 ppm, Co<59 ppm, enriched incompatible element contents). Overall characteristics of ultramafic rocks from the Singok and Kaewol masses are similar to the those of adjacent ultramafic bodies in Chungnam with worldwide orogenic related Alpine type ultramalic rocks. Calculated geothermometries suggest that the ultramafic rocks have experienced metamorphism in the condition ranging from the greenschist facies to granulite facies.

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Geomorphic Features of Bing-gye Valley Area(Kyongbuk Province, South Korea) -Mainly about Talus- (의성 빙계계곡 일대의 지형적 특성 -테일러스를 중심으로-)

  • Jeon, Young-Gweon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.49-64
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    • 1998
  • Bing-gye valley(Kyongbuk Province, South Korea) is well known as a tourist attraction because of its meteorologic characteristics that show subzero temperature during midsummer. Also, there are some interesting geomorphic features in the valley area. Therefore, the valley is worth researching in geomorphology field. The aim of this paper is to achieve two purposes. These are to clarify geomorphic features on talus within Bing-gye valley area, and to infer the origin of Bing-gye valley. The main results are summarized as follows. 1) The formation of Bing-gye valley It would be possible to infer the following two ideas regarding the formation of Bing-gye valley. One is that the valley was formed by differential erosion of stream along fault line, and the other is that the rate of upheaval comparatively exceeded the rate of stream erosion. Especially, the latter may be associated with the fact that the width of the valley is much narrow. Judging that the fact the width of the valley is much narrow, compared with one of its upper or lower valley, it is inferred that Bing-gye valley is transverse valley. 2) The geomorphic features of talus (1) Pattern It seems to be true that the removal of matrix(finer materials) by the running water beneath the surface can result in partly collapse hollows. Taluses are tongue-shaped or cone-shaped in appearance. They are $120{\sim}200m$ in length, $30{\sim}40m$ in maximum width. and $32{\sim}33^{\circ}$ in mean slope gradient. The component blocks are mostly homogeneous in size and shape(angular), which reflect highly jointed free face produced by frost action under periglacial environment. (2) Origin On the basis of previous studies, the type of the talus is classified into rock fall talus. When considered in conjunction with the degrees of both weathering of blocks and hardness of blocks, it can be explained that the talus was formed under periglacial environment in pleistocene time. (3) The inner structure of block accumulation I recognize a three-layered structure in the talus as follows: (a) superficial layer; debris with openwork texture at the surface, 1.3m thick. (b) intermediate layer: small debris(about 5cm in diameter) with fine matrix(including humic soil), 70cm thick. (c) basal layer: over 2m beneath surface, almost pure soil horizon without debris (4) The stage of landform development Most of the blocks are now covered with lichen, and/or a mantle of weathering. It is believed that downslope movement by talus creep well explains the formation of concave slope of the talus. There is no evidence of present motion in the deposit. Judging from above-mentioned facts, the talus of this study area appears to be inactive and fossil landform.

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A Study on the System of Aircraft Investigation (항공기(航空機) 사고조사제도(事故調査制度)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.9
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    • pp.85-143
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    • 1997
  • The main purpose of the investigation of an accident caused by aircraft is to be prevented the sudden and casual accidents caused by wilful misconduct and fault from pilots, air traffic controllers, hijack, trouble of engine and machinery of aircraft, turbulence during the bad weather, collision between birds and aircraft, near miss flight by aircrafts etc. It is not the purpose of this activity to apportion blame or liability for offender of aircraft accidents. Accidents to aircraft, especially those involving the general public and their property, are a matter of great concern to the aviation community. The system of international regulation exists to improve safety and minimize, as far as possible, the risk of accidents but when they do occur there is a web of systems and procedures to investigate and respond to them. I would like to trace the general line of regulation from an international source in the Chicago Convention of 1944. Article 26 of the Convention lays down the basic principle for the investigation of the aircraft accident. Where there has been an accident to an aircraft of a contracting state which occurs in the territory of another contracting state and which involves death or serious injury or indicates serious technical defect in the aircraft or air navigation facilities, the state in which the accident occurs must institute an inquiry into the circumstances of the accident. That inquiry will be in accordance, in so far as its law permits, with the procedure which may be recommended from time to time by the International Civil Aviation Organization ICAO). There are very general provisions but they state two essential principles: first, in certain circumstances there must be an investigation, and second, who is to be responsible for undertaking that investigation. The latter is an important point to establish otherwise there could be at least two states claiming jurisdiction on the inquiry. The Chicago Convention also provides that the state where the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint observers to be present at the inquiry and the state holding the inquiry must communicate the report and findings in the matter to that other state. It is worth noting that the Chicago Convention (Article 25) also makes provision for assisting aircraft in distress. Each contracting state undertakes to provide such measures of assistance to aircraft in distress in its territory as it may find practicable and to permit (subject to control by its own authorities) the owner of the aircraft or authorities of the state in which the aircraft is registered, to provide such measures of assistance as may be necessitated by circumstances. Significantly, the undertaking can only be given by contracting state but the duty to provide assistance is not limited to aircraft registered in another contracting state, but presumably any aircraft in distress in the territory of the contracting state. Finally, the Convention envisages further regulations (normally to be produced under the auspices of ICAO). In this case the Convention provides that each contracting state, when undertaking a search for missing aircraft, will collaborate in co-ordinated measures which may be recommended from time to time pursuant to the Convention. Since 1944 further international regulations relating to safety and investigation of accidents have been made, both pursuant to Chicago Convention and, in particular, through the vehicle of the ICAO which has, for example, set up an accident and reporting system. By requiring the reporting of certain accidents and incidents it is building up an information service for the benefit of member states. However, Chicago Convention provides that each contracting state undertakes collaborate in securing the highest practicable degree of uniformity in regulations, standards, procedures and organization in relation to aircraft, personnel, airways and auxiliary services in all matters in which such uniformity will facilitate and improve air navigation. To this end, ICAO is to adopt and amend from time to time, as may be necessary, international standards and recommended practices and procedures dealing with, among other things, aircraft in distress and investigation of accidents. Standards and Recommended Practices for Aircraft Accident Injuries were first adopted by the ICAO Council on 11 April 1951 pursuant to Article 37 of the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation and were designated as Annex 13 to the Convention. The Standards Recommended Practices were based on Recommendations of the Accident Investigation Division at its first Session in February 1946 which were further developed at the Second Session of the Division in February 1947. The 2nd Edition (1966), 3rd Edition, (1973), 4th Edition (1976), 5th Edition (1979), 6th Edition (1981), 7th Edition (1988), 8th Edition (1992) of the Annex 13 (Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation) of the Chicago Convention was amended eight times by the ICAO Council since 1966. Annex 13 sets out in detail the international standards and recommended practices to be adopted by contracting states in dealing with a serious accident to an aircraft of a contracting state occurring in the territory of another contracting state, known as the state of occurrence. It provides, principally, that the state in which the aircraft is registered is to be given the opportunity to appoint an accredited representative to be present at the inquiry conducted by the state in which the serious aircraft accident occurs. Article 26 of the Chicago Convention does not indicate what the accredited representative is to do but Annex 13 amplifies his rights and duties. In particular, the accredited representative participates in the inquiry by visiting the scene of the accident, examining the wreckage, questioning witnesses, having full access to all relevant evidence, receiving copies of all pertinent documents and making submissions in respect of the various elements of the inquiry. The main shortcomings of the present system for aircraft accident investigation are that some contracting sates are not applying Annex 13 within its express terms, although they are contracting states. Further, and much more important in practice, there are many countries which apply the letter of Annex 13 in such a way as to sterilise its spirit. This appears to be due to a number of causes often found in combination. Firstly, the requirements of the local law and of the local procedures are interpreted and applied so as preclude a more efficient investigation under Annex 13 in favour of a legalistic and sterile interpretation of its terms. Sometimes this results from a distrust of the motives of persons and bodies wishing to participate or from commercial or related to matters of liability and bodies. These may be political, commercial or related to matters of liability and insurance. Secondly, there is said to be a conscious desire to conduct the investigation in some contracting states in such a way as to absolve from any possibility of blame the authorities or nationals, whether manufacturers, operators or air traffic controllers, of the country in which the inquiry is held. The EEC has also had an input into accidents and investigations. In particular, a directive was issued in December 1980 encouraging the uniformity of standards within the EEC by means of joint co-operation of accident investigation. The sharing of and assisting with technical facilities and information was considered an important means of achieving these goals. It has since been proposed that a European accident investigation committee should be set up by the EEC (Council Directive 80/1266 of 1 December 1980). After I would like to introduce the summary of the legislation examples and system for aircraft accidents investigation of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, Swiss, New Zealand and Japan, and I am going to mention the present system, regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation in Korea. Furthermore I would like to point out the shortcomings of the present system and regulations and aviation act for the aircraft accident investigation and then I will suggest my personal opinion on the new and dramatic innovation on the system for aircraft accident investigation in Korea. I propose that it is necessary and desirable for us to make a new legislation or to revise the existing aviation act in order to establish the standing and independent Committee of Aircraft Accident Investigation under the Korean Government.

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