• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fault Prediction System

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Reinforcement Data Mining Method for Anomaly&Misuse Detection (침입탐지시스템의 정확도 향상을 위한 개선된 데이터마이닝 방법론)

  • Choi, Yun Jeong
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2010
  • Recently, large amount of information in IDS(Intrusion Detection System) can be un manageable and also be mixed with false prediction error. In this paper, we propose a data mining methodology for IDS, which contains uncertainty based on training process and post-processing analysis additionally. Our system is trained to classify the existing attack for misuse detection, to detect the new attack pattern for anomaly detection, and to define border patter between attack and normal pattern. In experimental results show that our approach improve the performance against existing attacks and new attacks,from 0.62 to 0.84 about 35%.

Establishing the Method of Risk Assessment Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Based on Human Factors: Application to Safe Evacuation System

  • Fukuchi, Nobuyoshi;Shinoda, Takeshi
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2000
  • For the prevention of marine accidents based on human factor, the risk assessment analysis procedure is proposed which consists of (1) the structural analysis of marine accident, (2) the estimation of incidence probability based on the Fault Tree analysis, (3) the prediction of ef-fectiveness to reduced the accident risk by suitable countermeasures in the specified functional system, and (4) the risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation and the background risk. As a practical example, the risk assessment analysis for preventing is investigated using the proposed method.

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A Study on Power Supply Method Design for Hot Standby Sparing System via Reliability Modeling (신뢰도모델링에 의한 이중계제어기 전원공급방식 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Duck-O;Lee, Kang-Mi;Lee, Jae-Ho;Kim, Yong-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.527-532
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we suggest those two design plans for power supply method of Hot Standby Sparing System; one is the plan using MTBF based on Constant Failure Rate, and the plan using Reliability Function is the other. Traditionally, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram) is used for reliability prediction which is required to meet any requirements before system operation. However, the system that has redundancy, such as Hot Standby Sparing System, Is not suitable for system reliability modeling using combination model, such as RBD. In this paper, therefore, we demonstrate that for redundancy controller, redundancy modeling design toward fault occurrence design is more effective to build up a system with higher reliability and achieve the effectiveness of loss cost due to maintenance and failure occurred in operation, rather than combinational modeling design.

Data-driven approach to machine condition prognosis using least square regression trees

  • Tran, Van Tung;Yang, Bo-Suk;Oh, Myung-Suck
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.886-890
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    • 2007
  • Machine fault prognosis techniques have been considered profoundly in the recent time due to their profit for reducing unexpected faults or unscheduled maintenance. With those techniques, the working conditions of components, the trending of fault propagation, and the time-to-failure are forecasted precisely before they reach the failure thresholds. In this work, we propose an approach of Least Square Regression Tree (LSRT), which is an extension of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART), in association with one-step-ahead prediction of time-series forecasting technique to predict the future conditions of machines. In this technique, the number of available observations is firstly determined by using Cao's method and LSRT is employed as prognosis system in the next step. The proposed approach is evaluated by real data of low methane compressor. Furthermore, the comparison between the predicted results of CART and LSRT are carried out to prove the accuracy. The predicted results show that LSRT offers a potential for machine condition prognosis.

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Development of Thermal Error Model with Minimum Number of Variables Using Fuzzy Logic Strategy

  • Lee, Jin-Hyeon;Lee, Jae-Ha;Yang, Seong-Han
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.1482-1489
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    • 2001
  • Thermally-induced errors originating from machine tool errors have received significant attention recently because high speed and precise machining is now the principal trend in manufacturing proce sses using CNC machine tools. Since the thermal error model is generally a function of temperature, the thermal error compensation system contains temperature sensors with the same number of temperature variables. The minimization of the number of variables in the thermal error model can affect the economical efficiency and the possibility of unexpected sensor fault in a error compensation system. This paper presents a thermal error model with minimum number of variables using a fuzzy logic strategy. The proposed method using a fuzzy logic strategy does not require any information about the characteristics of the plant contrary to numerical analysis techniques, but the developed thermal error model guarantees good prediction performance. The proposed modeling method can also be applied to any type of CNC machine tool if a combination of the possible input variables is determined because the error model parameters are only calculated mathematically-based on the number of temperature variables.

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A review on prognostics and health management and its applications (건전성예측 및 관리기술 연구동향 및 응용사례)

  • Choi, Joo-ho
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2014
  • Objective of this paper is to introduce a new technology known as prognostics and health management (PHM) which enables a real-time life prediction for safety critical systems under extreme loading conditions. In the PHM, Bayesian framework is employed to account for uncertainties and probabilities arising in the overall process including condition monitoring, fault severity estimation and failure predictions. Three applications - aircraft fuselage crack, gearbox spall and battery capacity degradation are taken to illustrate the approach, in which the life is predicted and validated by end-of-life results. The PHM technology may allow new maintenance strategy that achieves higher degree of safety while reducing the cost in effective manner.

A Study on Fault Prediction Algorithm and Failure Instance Analysis of Electric Power Relay (전력릴레이 고장사고 사례분석 및 고장예측 알고리즘 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Kyu;Kwak, Dong-Kurl;Lee, Seung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.15-16
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    • 2015
  • According to 2014 fire statistical yearbook in the National Fire Data System, a main cause of fire is electrical fire except carelessness fire. Joint/contact badness is the one of the main cause of electrical fire. Furthermore, power relays which are used in electric panel board, motor control center and automation controller, are main element of automation system in the industry field. Overload, voltage unbalance and open-phase due to joint/contact badness of terminal make electric accidents or electrical fires. In order to prevent joint/contact badness of terminal, this paper proposes a sensing circuit of chattering, tracking, arc current, voltage unbalance and open-phase etc. Some experimental tests of the proposed apparatus confirm practicality and validity of the theoretical results.

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Seismic fragility curves for a concrete bridge using structural health monitoring and digital twins

  • Rojas-Mercedes, Norberto;Erazo, Kalil;Di Sarno, Luigi
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents the development of seismic fragility curves for a precast reinforced concrete bridge instrumented with a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. The bridge is located near an active seismic fault in the Dominican Republic (DR) and provides the only access to several local communities in the aftermath of a potential damaging earthquake; moreover, the sample bridge was designed with outdated building codes and uses structural detailing not adequate for structures in seismic regions. The bridge was instrumented with an SHM system to extract information about its state of structural integrity and estimate its seismic performance. The data obtained from the SHM system is integrated with structural models to develop a set of fragility curves to be used as a quantitative measure of the expected damage; the fragility curves provide an estimate of the probability that the structure will exceed different damage limit states as a function of an earthquake intensity measure. To obtain the fragility curves a digital twin of the bridge is developed combining a computational finite element model and the information extracted from the SHM system. The digital twin is used as a response prediction tool that minimizes modeling uncertainty, significantly improving the predicting capability of the model and the accuracy of the fragility curves. The digital twin was used to perform a nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) with selected ground motions that are consistent with the seismic fault and site characteristics. The fragility curves show that for the maximum expected acceleration (with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) the structure has a 62% probability of undergoing extensive damage. This is the first study presenting fragility curves for civil infrastructure in the DR and the proposed methodology can be extended to other structures to support disaster mitigation and post-disaster decision-making strategies.

A Prediction Model for Software Change using Object-oriented Metrics (객체지향 메트릭을 이용한 변경 발생에 대한 예측 모형)

  • Lee, Mi-Jung;Chae, Heung-Seok;Kim, Tae-Yeon
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.603-615
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    • 2007
  • Software changes for various kinds of reasons and they increase maintenance cost. Software metrics, as quantitative values about attributes of software, have been adopted for predicting maintenance cost and fault-proneness. This paper proposes relationship between some typical object-oriented metrics and software changes in industrial settings. We used seven metrics which are concerned with size, complexity coupling, inheritance and polymorphism, and collected data about the number of changes during the development of an Information system on .NET platform. Based on them, this paper proposes a model for predicting the number of changes from the object-oriented metrics using multiple regression analysis technique.

The Development of Infrared Thermal Imaging Safety Diagnosis System Using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (피어슨 상관계수를 이용한 적외선 열화상 안전 진단 시스템 개발)

  • Jung, Jong-Moon;Park, Sung-Hun;Lee, Yong-Sik;Gim, Jae-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2019
  • With the rapid development of the national industry, the importance of electrical safety was recognized because of a lot of new electrical equipment are installing and the electrical accidents have been occurring annually. Today, the electrical equipments is inspect by using the portable Infrared thermal imaging camera. but the most negative element of using the camera is inspected for only state of heating, the reliable diagnosis is depended with inspector's knowledge, and real-time monitoring is impossible. This paper present the infrared thermal imaging safety diagnosis system. This system is able to monitor in real time, predict the state of fault, and diagnose the state with analysis of thermal and power data. The system consists of a main processor, an infrared camera module, the power data acquisition board, and a server. The diagnostic algorithm is based on a mathematical model designed by analyzing the Pearson's Correlation Coefficient between temperature and power data. To test the prediction algorithm, the simulations were performed by damaging the terminals or cables on the switchboard to generate a large amount of heat. Utilizing these simulations, the developed prediction algorithm was verified.