• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.61-76
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• 2009

We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price, also transportation fare for iron ore. Iron ore is very important mineral resource for industrial production. The structure for this system dynamics shows non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear reality better than the regression analysis. Our model is calibrated and tested for the past 6 year monthly data (2003-2008) and used for next 6 year monthly data(2008-2013) forecasting. The test results show that our system dynamics approach fits the real data with higher accuracy than the regression one. And we have run the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply and fare related variables. This simulations imply some meaningful price and fare change patterns.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.155-162
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• 2009

The recent increase of light rail construction by the private sector in Korea has caused a new issue in forecasting rail demand. Integrated fare systems between several rail operators is convenient and brings cost savings to users, and therefore is also very effective in increasing demand. However, it causes some short-term revenue loss to operators so that the private sector often suggests a non-integrated fare system. The current rail demand forecasting model is based upon an integrated fare system. Thus this model cannot be used to forecast the demand with a non-integrated fare system. Some value of transfer fare should be estimated and applied to forecast the demand in a non-integrated fare system. This study conducted a stated preference (SP) survey on urban railway passengers and estimated the value of transfer fare. The estimated value is 2,609 Won/hr, which is about 52% of in-vehicle time. This shows railway users have a tendency to pay more for transfer fares to save time or distance. This value has some limitations since it is derived from the SP survey. If some non-integrated fare system is applied in the future and a RP survey is conducted and compared with these study results, a more clear value of the transfer fare will be derived.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.171-181
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• 2010

The integrated transit fare system of Seoul metropolitan area has given positively evaluated with reduction of user cost and activating the transfer behavior from its opening year, July 2007. However, there were only few research about railway demand forecasting methodology, especially mode share, has conducted under the integrated fare system. This study focuses on the utility estimation by each mode under the integrated fare system, and on the coefficient actualization relates on travel time and travel cost estimation with Household Travel Survey Data 2006. Also the railway demand analysis methodology under various fare systems is presented. The methodology from this study is expected to improve accuracy and usefulness in railway demand analysis.

• Transportation Technology and Policy
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.111-114
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• 2010

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1447-1457
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• 2008

The operation of the Seat-type Express Electric railway (SEE) has been watched for an alternative plan according to the increase of competition among the vehicle in metropolitan city. The purpose of this study was to examine a feasibility for the adoption of the SEE by analysis of various condition in the double tracked Souel-Chuncheon line. Fare estimate, station selection for SEE, managerial plan, demanding forecasting and analysis were performed to compute financial efficiency. The results showed financial validity on Revenue Cost Ratio (R/C), Financial Net Present Value (FNPV), Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR). This results indicate the evidence that SEE is a new means which is able to complement for finance, transportation capacity in metropolitan city.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.1 s.87
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• pp.109-120
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• 2006

Since the 1st of July, 2004, the public transport system of the Seoul metropolitan area has been rearranged. In the new system, bus lines are divided into 4 classes-wide area, arterial road, branch, and rotation lines with renewed fare system based on the total distance travelled. Since central control center known as the Bus Management System (BMS) integrates the entire system operation. it now becomes feasible to collect travel information and provide it to the users scientifically and systematically. The Purpose of this study is to forecast transit travel time using real-time traffic data coming from both buses and subway. This is significant contribution since provision of real-time transit information and easy access to it would most likely boost the use of mass transit system, alleviating roadway congestion in the metropolitan area.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.5D
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• pp.671-677
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• 2011

A diversity of railway network function enhancement projects such as the double tracking, electrification, and direct operation have been actively executed to improve the railway service. When the new rapid transit is provided, how many people will use it instead of other transports? How will the railway choice behavior be changed? Accordingly, in this paper, the applicability of diverted travel demand forecast methods, by Revealed Preference(RP) and Stated Preference(SP) data was reviewed for Daegu metropolitan rail rapid transit service. As the result of combining RP and SP data, including the sequential and simultaneous approach, the total travel time and travel cost parameters are of the right sign and are highly significant. The simultaneous approach is more efficient in terms of the estimation of coefficients. In particular, methods to improve validity of the Mixed RP/SP models, when RP data is used proportionally, the diverted travel demand can be easily identified by railway fare and travel time service level. Therefore, it is considered that this will practically apply even in other regions as well as Daegu metropolitan railway.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.433-442
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• 2014

This paper evaluates the performance of transit assignment algorithms for urban rail networks. The accuracy of the algorithms is essential not just for travel forecasting but also for the area of applications such as the assessment of road vulnerability and the fare adjustments between train operating companies. Nonetheless, the suitability and caveats for the series of computational steps have not yet been much discussed. This study thus considers the characteristics that are appropriate for investigating Seoul rail travelers using three representative transit assignment algorithms: the optimal strategy algorithm, route choice algorithms, and the Dial's algorithm. Both the theoretical foundation and the empirical performance are examined. The results demonstrate that the Dial's algorithm is superior in terms of the theoretical soundness and the computational efficiency.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.146-164
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• 2022

Recently, the Korean government promoted the construction of metropolitan express subway to connect major transportation hub in the metropolitan area within 30 minutes. Most stations of the metropolitan express subway are connected to existing subway stations, so the importance of transfer increased. Although many studies have been conducted on the effect of transfer penalty on route choice, there are few studies on the transfer behavior of the metropolitan express subway. Therefore, in this study, a transfer behavior analysis was conducted on the Shinbundang Line, a representative metropolitan express subway. To analyze the transfer behavior according to the degree of traffic congestion and the presence of fare payment, route choice models were made using transport card data divided according to week, time, and user characteristics. As a result of the analysis, users of the metropolitan express subway had greater disutility to the transfer waiting time compared to the transfer moving time. Furthermore, especially during the peak time, EIVM(Equivalent in-vehicle minutes) of the transfer waiting time was 3.51. In this study, EIVM for metropolitan express subway users were analyzed to be 2.6 minutes, which is significantly lower than the results of previous studies on subways. This suggests that there is a difference in the transfer penalty between subways and metropolitan express subway, and that it is necessary to apply the transfer penalty between subways and express subway differently when forecasting subway traffic demand.