• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.155-155
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• 2018

Uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled meteorological and hydrological model is arisen from various sources, especially the uncertainty comes from the inaccuracy of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). In order to improve the capability of flood forecast, the uncertainty estimation and mitigation are required to perform. This study is conducted to investigate and reduce such uncertainty. First, ensemble QPFs are generated by using Monte - Carlo simulation, then each ensemble member is forced as input for a hydrological model to obtain ensemble streamflow prediction. Likelihood measures are evaluated to identify feasible member. These members are retained to define upper and lower limits of the uncertainty interval and assess the uncertainty. To mitigate the uncertainty for very short lead time, a blending method, which merges the ensemble QPFs with radar-based rainfall prediction considering both qualitative and quantitative skills, is proposed. Finally, blending bias ratios, which are estimated from previous time step, are used to update the members over total lead time. The proposed method is verified for the two flood events in 2013 and 2016 in the Yeonguol and Soyang watersheds that are located in the Han River basin, South Korea. The uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) and Sejong University Rainfall - Runoff (SURR) model is investigated and then mitigated by blending the generated ensemble LDAPS members with radar-based rainfall prediction that uses McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE). The results show that the uncertainty of flood forecasting using the coupled model increases when the lead time is longer. The mitigation method indicates its effectiveness for mitigating the uncertainty with the increases of the percentage of feasible member (POFM) and the ratio of the number of observations that fall into the uncertainty interval (p-factor).

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.99 no.2
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• pp.163-171
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• 2010

Forest fires have potentials to change the structure and function of forest ecosystems and significantly influence on atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. Forest fire also affects the quality of public benefits such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, or tourism. The prediction of fire occurrence and its spread is critical to the forest managers for allocating resources and developing the forest fire danger rating system. Most of fires were human-caused fires in Korea, but meteorological factors are also big contributors to fire behaviors and its spread. Thus, meteorological factors as well as social factors were considered in the fire danger rating systems. A total of 298 forest fires occurred during the fall season from 2002 to 2006 in South Korea were considered for developing a logistic model of forest fire occurrence. The results of statistical analysis show that only effective humidity and temperature significantly affected the logistic models (p<0.05). The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.739 to 0.876, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings would be necessary for the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.31-45
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• 1996

This paper presents the results from a hydrodynamic model study to predict the impacts of coastal reclamation in Pusan harbor system using RMA2 which is a tidal flow model of the US Army Corps of Engineers' TABS-2 system. A finite element mesh was constructed and refined to cover the complicated geometry of Pusan harbor system and the proposed reclamation area. The model was calibrated to tidal elevations and currents measured during spring fall syzygys. Under the three different tidal conditions including summer winter syzygys, spring fall quarters, and summer winter quarters, the model predictions were compared with the field measurements both in tidal elevation and current. In all cases, there were excellent agreements between the model predictions and the field measurements. The validated model was then used to predict the changes in tidal current and elevation that might occur due to the coastal reclamation. It was predicted that there would be no change in tidal elevation of this system after the reclamation. In tidal current, however, discernible changes were predicted near the proposed reclamation area both in magnitude and direction.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.72 no.2
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• pp.191-201
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• 2019

Finite element analysis is one of the most used tools for studying femoral neck fracture. Nerveless, consensus concerning either the choice of material characteristics, damage law and /or geometric models (linear on nonlinear) remains unreached. In this work, we propose a numerical quasi-brittle damage model to describe the behavior of the proximal femur associated with two methods to evaluate the Young modulus. Eight proximal femur finite elements models were constructed from CT scan data (4 donors: 3 women; 1 man). The numerical computations showed a good agreement between the numerical curves (load - displacement) and the experimental ones. A very encouraging result is obtained when a comparison is made between the computed fracture loads and the experimental ones ($R^2=0.825$, Relative error =6.49%). All specific numerical computation provided very fair qualitative matches with the fracture patterns for the sideway fall simulation. Finally, the comparative study based on 32 simulations adopting linear and nonlinear meshing led to the conclusion that the quantitatively results are improved when a nonlinear mesh is used.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.484-492
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• 2011

Purpose: The aims of study were; (1) to evaluate the validity and sensitivity of a fall-risk assessment tool, and (2) to establish continuous quality improvement (CQI) methods to monitor the effective use of the risk assessment tool. Methods: A retrospective case-control cohort design was used. Analysis was conducted for 90 admissions as cases and 3,716 as controls during the 2006 and 2007 calendar years was conducted. Fallers were identified from the hospital’s Accident Reporting System, and non-fallers were selected by randomized selection. Accuracy estimates, sensitivity analysis and logistic regression were used. Results: At the lower cutoff score of one, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 82.2%, 19.3%, 0.03%, and 96.9%, respectively. The area under the ROC was 0.60 implying poor prediction. Logistic regression analysis showed that five out of nine constitutional items; age, history of falls, gait problems, and confusion were significantly associated with falls. Based on these results, we suggested a tailored falls CQI process with specific indexes. Conclusion: The fall-risk assessment tool was found to need considerable reviews for its validity and usage problems in practice. It is also necessary to develop protocols for use and identify strategies that reflect changes in patient conditions during hospital stay.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.37-47
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• 2014

Falls are common after stroke and most frequently related to loss of balance while walking. Consequently, preventing falls is one of the goals of acute, rehabilitative, and chronic stroke care. The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors of falls and to determine how well the Falls Efficacy Scale (FES), Timed Up and Go test (TUG), and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) could distinguish between fallers and non-fallers among stroke patients during inpatient rehabilitation. One hundred and fifteen participants with at least 3 months post-stroke and able to walk at least 3 m with or without a mono cane participated in this study. Fifty-four (47%) participants reported falling, and 15 (27.8%) had a recurrent fall. Logistic regression analysis for predicting falls showed that left hemiplegia [odds ratio (OR)=4.68] and fear of falling (OR=5.99) were strong risk factors for falls. Fallers performed worse than non-fallers on the FES, TUG, and BBS (p<.05, p<.01, respectively). In the receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, the TUG demonstrated the best discriminating ability among the three assessment tools. The cut-off score was 22 seconds on the TUG for discriminating fallers from non-fallers (sensitivity=88.9%, specificity=45.9%) and 27 seconds for discriminating recurrent fallers from single fallers and non-fallers (sensitivity=71.4%, specificity=40.2%). Results suggest that there is a need for providing fall prevention and injury minimization programs for stroke patients who record over 22 seconds on the TUG.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.137-148
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• 2011

In this paper, we systematically investigate regional differences of the dead due to injuries in cities, towns and counties about transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents, which have recently been an important issue of health problems in Korea, The data are from the Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics in Korea in 2008. They include the deaths over the age 19 from transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents with the criterion of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases. Poisson HGLM is applied to estimate the mortality rate under the assumption that the number of deaths follow a Poisson distribution, by considering regions as random effects and by adjusting age, sex and standardized residence tax as fixed effects. Using the results of random effects prediction, the regional differences in cities, counties and towns are marked in disease mapping. The results showed that there were significant regional differences of mortality rates for transportation accidents and suicides, but no significant differences for fall accidents.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-33
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• 2004

This paper investigates the effects of inflation on real estate prices, particularly the discrepancy between the sales and chonsei prices of housing, in an economy in which real interest rates are secularly declining due to the fall in capital productivity. When real interest rates fall, real estate prices rise relative to chonsei prices, and thus the well-known adverse effect of inflation, or the discrepancy between the value of financial assets (or chonsei principal) and the value of real assets (or real estate), is aggravated although the monetary authority maintains the same rate of inflation. This theoretical prediction can help explain the trend of the ratio of apartment sales prices to chonsei prices. That is, the stabilization of inflation relative to real interest rates appears to have contributed to the secular stabilization of this ratio in the 1990s, while the fall in real interest rates appears to have led to the rise of this ratio since 2001.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-141
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• 2013

Many studies have related the recent variations of wildfire regime such as the increasing number of occurrances, their patterns and timing changes, and the severity of their extreme cases with global warming. However, there are only a few numbers of wildfire studies to assess how the future wildfire regime will change in the interactions between land and atmosphere with climate change especially over East Asia. This study was performed to estimate the future changing aspect of wildfire danger with global warming, using Haines Index (HI). Calculated from atmospheric instability and dryness, HI is the potential of an existing fire to become a dangerous wildfire. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two separated 5-year simulations of current (1995~1999) and far future (2095~2099) were performed and analyzed. Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) model outputs were utilized for the model inputs for the past and future over East Asia; future prediction was driven under the IPCC A1B scenario. The results indicate changes of the wildfire danger regime, showing overall decreasing the wildfire danger in the future but intensified regional deviations between north and south. The overall changes of the wildfire regime seems to stem from atmospheric dryness which is sensitive to soil moisture variation. In some locations, the future wildfire danger overall decreases in summer but increases in winter or fall when the actual fire occurrence are generally peaked especially in South China.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.237-242
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• 2014

Recently, wind energy is expanding to combination of computing to forecast of wind power generation as well as intelligent of wind powerturbine. Wind power is rise and fall depending on weather conditions and difficult to predict the output for efficient power production. Wind power is need to reliably linked technology in order to efficient power generation. In this paper, distributed power generation forecasts to enhance the predicted and actual power generation in order to minimize the difference between the power of distributed power short-term prediction model is designed. The proposed model for prediction of short-term combining the physical models and statistical models were produced in a physical model of the predicted value predicted by the lattice points within the branch prediction to extract the value of a physical model by applying the estimated value of a statistical model for estimating power generation final gas phase produces a predicted value. Also, the proposed model in real-time National Weather Service forecast for medium-term and real-time observations used as input data to perform the short-term prediction models.