• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제16권5호
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• pp.871-880
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• 2009

Recently, there has been much development on burn-in models in reliability area. Especially, the previous burn-in models have been extended to more general cases. For example, (i) burn-in procedures for repairable systems have been developed (ii) an extended assumption on the failure rate of the system has been proposed and (iii) a stochastic model for burn-in procedure in accelerated environment has been developed. In this paper, recent extensions and advances in burn-in models are introduced and some issues to be considered in the future study are discussed.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.167-176
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• 2011

This paper introduces models for preventive maintenance policies and considers periodic preventive maintenance policy with minimal repair when the failure of system occurs. It is assumed that minimal repairs do not change the failure rate of the system. The failure rate under prevention maintenance received an effect by a previously prevention maintenance and the slope of failure rate increases the model where it considered. Also the start point of failure rate under prevention maintenance considers the degradation of system and that it increases quotient, it assumed. Per unit time it bought an expectation cost from under this prevention maintenance policy. We obtain the optimal periodic time and the number for the periodic preventive maintenance by using Nakagawa's Algorithm, which minimizes the expected cost per unit time.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제6권6호
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• pp.760-768
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• 2011

The performance of transmission lines and its shielding design during a lightning phenomenon are quite essential in the maintenance of a reliable power supply to consumers. The leader progression model, as an advanced approach, has been recently developed to calculate the shielding failure rate (SFR) of transmission lines using geometrical data and physical behavior of upward and downward lightning leaders. However, such method is quite time consuming. In the present paper, an effective method that utilizes artificial neural networks (ANNs) to create a metamodel for calculating the SFR of a transmission line based on shielding angle and height is introduced. The results of investigations on a real case study reveal that, through proper selection of an ANN structure and good training, the ANN prediction is very close to the result of the detailed simulation, whereas the Processing time is by far lower than that of the detailed model.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.14-21
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• 2003

도시가스 배관에서 위험을 유발할 수 있는 사건의 발생빈도를 구하기 위하여 주요 사고원인인 굴착공사, 외부부식, 지반침하 및 장치손상 등에 의한 사고발생빈도를 구하는 방법을 제시하였다. 굴착공사로 인한 손상은 FTA에 의해 기본사상(Basic event)을 도출하고, 부식에 의한 손상확률은 시간변화에 따른 부식결함의 잔존강도를 평가하는 평가식을 제시하였다. 지반침하로 인한 손상은 기준손상율을 구하고 여기에 손상모드인자 및 보정인자를 고려한 모델을 이용하여 구하였다. 장치원인에 의한 손상확률은 고유고장율과 특정고장율 자료를 모두 반영할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였으며 그 계산 예도 제시하였다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.873-876
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2002년도 정기학술대회
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• pp.403-410
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• 2002

This paper presents the effect of internal corrosion, external corrosion, material properties, operation condition, earthquake, traffic load and design thickness in pipeline on the failure prediction using a failure probability model. A nonlinear corrosion is used to represent the loss of pipe wall thickness with time. The effects of environmental, operational, and design random variables such as a pipe diameter, earthquake, fluid pressure, a corrosion rate, a material yield stress and a pipe thickness on the failure probability are systematically investigated using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권1호
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• pp.304-313
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• 2021

Nickel base Alloy X-750, which is used as fastener parts in light-water reactor (LWR), has experienced many failures by environmentally assisted cracking (EAC). In order to improve the reliability of passive components for nuclear power plants (NPP's), it is necessary to study the failure mechanism and to predict crack growth behavior by developing a probabilistic failure model. In this study, The Bayesian inference was employed to reduce the uncertainties contained in EAC modeling parameters that have been established from experiments with Alloy X-750. Corrosion fatigue crack growth rate model (FCGR) was developed by fitting into Paris' Law of measured data from the several fatigue tests conducted either in constant load or constant ΔK mode. These parameters characterizing the corrosion fatigue crack growth behavior of X-750 were successfully updated to reduce the uncertainty in the model by using the Bayesian inference method. It is demonstrated that probabilistic failure models for passive components can be developed by updating a laboratory model with field-inspection data, when crack growth rates (CGRs) are low and multiple inspections can be made prior to the component failure.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.145-149
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• 2003

We consider the estimation of failure rate and acceleration factor under type-I censoring without using acceleration model when testing is conducted in only one highly accelerated condition. Failure times of an item are assumed to be exponentially distributed. It is also assumed that the uncertainty about the acceleration factor, the failure time contraction ratio between accelerated condition and use condition, can be modeled by the uniform or gamma prior distribution of appropriate parameters. We respectively use Bayes and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate acceleration factor and failure rate in the use condition. An example is given to show how the method can be applied.

• 산업공학
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.176-181
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• 2010

Warranty claim data analysis is a useful tool for the manufacturer because it contains many useful informations regarding reliability of the product in the real-world environments. Because of the nature of uncertainty and the incompleteness of data, some bias patterns are observed on warranty claim rate known as 'spikes'. Two types of spikes are considered. One is due to manufacturing-related failures. The other is caused by customer's behavior. This paper proposes a model by considering two types of spikes. Warranty claim data is analyzed with the proposed model. To represent spikes observed on the early warranty period, we classify failures into manufacturing-related failures and usage-related failures. Uniform distribution is assumed for the time delayed to diagnose and report by customers. By reducing maximum value of the delayed time by customers, the proposed model characterizes customer's rush in the vicinity of the warranty expiration limit. Experimental results by using the real warranty claim data show that the proposed model is better than the existing one in respect to MSE(Mean Squared Error). Moreover it is expected to estimate the failure rate more realistically with proposed model because it considers the delayed time to diagnose and report by customers.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.1169-1175
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• 2009

In this paper, the inferences of data obtained from periodic inspection and type I censoring for the step-stress accelerated life test are studied. The exponential distribution with a failure rate function that a log-linear function of stress and the tampered failure rate model are considered. The maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are estimated and also the optimal stress change time which minimize the asymptotic variance of maximum likelihood estimators of parameters is determined. A numerical example will be given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedures and the sensitivity of the asymptotic variance of the estimated mean by the guessed parameters is investigated.