• 제목/요약/키워드: Failure Rate Model

검색결과 639건 처리시간 0.025초

예방정비를 고려한 복수 부품 시스템의 신뢰성 분석: 마코프 체인 모형의 응용 (Reliability Analysis of Multi-Component System Considering Preventive Maintenance: Application of Markov Chain Model)

  • 김헌길;김우성
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: We introduce ways to employ Markov chain model to evaluate the effect of preventive maintenance process. While the preventive maintenance process decreases the failure rate of each subsystems, it increases the downtime of the system because the system can not work during the maintenance process. The goal of this paper is to introduce ways to analyze this trade-off. Methods: Markov chain models are employed. We derive the availability of the system consisting of N repairable subsystems by the methods under various maintenance policies. Results: To validate our methods, we apply our models to the real maintenance data reports of military truck. The error between the model and the data was about 1%. Conclusion: The models developed in this paper fit real data well. These techniques can be applied to calculate the availability under various preventive maintenance policies.

혼합균열모델을 적응한 콘크리트 파괴의 유한요소해석 (Finite Element Analysis on Concrete Fracture using Homogenized Crack Model)

  • 송하원;방춘석
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2003
  • Since quasi-brittle material like concrete shows strain localization behavior accompanied by strain softening, a numerical drawback such as mesh sensitivity is appeared in the finite element analysis. In this study, a homogenized crack model which overcomes the drawback and considers rate discontinuity in the constitutive equation is proposed for modeling of cracking in concrete and its propagation in strain softening regime. Then, a series of finite element analysis of the concrete under various loading conditions has been performed. From comparison of analysis results with experimental data, it is shown that failure behavior due to localized cracking of concrete under both compressive loading condition and tensile loading condition is well predicted by the homogenized crack model.

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Bayesian Method on Sequential Preventive Maintenance Problem

  • Kim Hee-Soo;Kwon Young-Sub;Park Dong-Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2006
  • This paper develops a Bayesian method to derive the optimal sequential preventive maintenance(PM) policy by determining the PM schedules which minimize the mean cost rate. Such PM schedules are derived based on a general sequential imperfect PM model proposed by Lin, Zuo and Yam(2000) and may have unequal length of PM intervals. To apply the Bayesian approach in this problem, we assume that the failure times follow a Weibull distribution and consider some appropriate prior distributions for the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull model. The solution is proved to be finite and unique under some mild conditions. Numerical examples for the proposed optimal sequential PM policy are presented for illustrative purposes.

Behavior of composite box bridge girders under localized fire exposure conditions

  • Zhang, Gang;Kodur, Venkatesh;Yao, Weifa;Huang, Qiao
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제69권2호
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    • pp.193-204
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents results from experimental and numerical studies on the response of steel-concrete composite box bridge girders under certain localized fire exposure conditions. Two composite box bridge girders, a simply supported girder and a continuous girder respectively, were tested under simultaneous loading and fire exposure. The simply supported girder was exposed to fire over 40% of its span length in the middle zone, and the two-span continuous girder was exposed to fire over 38% of its length of the first span and full length of the second span. A measurement method based on comparative rate of deflection was provided to predict the failure time in the hogging moment zone of continuous composite box bridge girders under certain localized fire exposure condition. Parameters including transverse and longitudinal stiffeners and fire scenarios were introduced to investigate fire resistance of the composite box bridge girders. Test results show that failure of the simply supported girder is governed by the deflection limit state, whereas failure of the continuous girder occurs through bending buckling of the web and bottom slab in the hogging moment zone. Deflection based criterion may not be reliable in evaluating failure of continuous composite box bridge girder under certain fire exposure condition. The fire resistance (failure time) of the continuous girder is higher than that of the simply supported girder. Data from fire tests is successfully utilized to validate a finite element based numerical model for further investigating the response of composite box bridge girders exposed to localized fire. Results from numerical analysis show that fire resistance of composite box bridge girders can be highly influenced by the spacing of longitudinal stiffeners and fire severity. The continuous composite box bridge girder with closer longitudinal stiffeners has better fire resistance than the simply composite box bridge girder. It is concluded that the fire resistance of continuous composite box bridge girders can be significantly enhanced by preventing the hogging moment zone from exposure to fire. Longitudinal stiffeners with closer spacing can enhance fire resistance of composite box bridge girders. The increase of transverse stiffeners has no significant effect on fire resistance of composite box bridge girders.

머신러닝 기반 외식업 프랜차이즈 가맹점 성패 예측 (Prediction of Food Franchise Success and Failure Based on Machine Learning)

  • 안예린;유성민;이현희;박민서
    • 문화기술의 융합
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.347-353
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    • 2022
  • 외식업은 소비자의 수요가 많고 진입장벽이 낮아 창업이 활발하게 일어난다. 하지만 외식업은 폐업률이 높고, 프랜차이즈의 경우 동일 브랜드 내에서도 매출 편차가 크게 나타난다. 따라서 외식업 프랜차이즈의 폐업을 방지하기 위한 연구가 필요하다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 프랜차이즈 가맹점 매출에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 살펴보고, 도출된 요인들에 머신러닝 기법을 활용하여 프랜차이즈의 성패를 예측하고자 한다. 강남구 프랜차이즈 매장의 PoS(Point of Sale) 데이터와 공공데이터를 활용하여 가맹점 매출에 영향을 미치는 여러 요인들을 추출하고, VIF(Variance Inflation Factor)를 활용하여 다중공산성을 제거하여 타당성 있는 변수 선택을 진행한 뒤, 머신러닝 기법 중 분류모델을 활용하여 프랜차이즈 매장의 성패 예측을 진행한다. 이를 통해 최고 정확도 0.92를 가진 프랜차이즈 성패 예측 모델을 제안한다.

Moderate Aortic Stenosis in Patients With Heart Failure

  • Vien T. Truong;John Ernst;Akhil Pallerla;Amitesh Verma;Cheryl Bartone;Cassady Palmer;Eugene S. Chung
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • 제52권12호
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    • pp.878-886
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    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives: Moderate aortic stenosis (AS) confers a surprisingly adverse prognosis, approaching that of severe AS. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical course of patients with moderate AS with evidence of concomitant heart failure manifesting as elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels. Methods: This is a single-center, retrospective cohort study of 332 patients with elevated BNP. 165 patients with moderate AS were compared with 167 controls with none-mild AS. The Median follow-up duration was 3.85 years. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause hospitalizations and all-cause mortality. Results: BNP levels were 530 and 515 pg/mL in the study and the control groups, respectively. Moderate AS had significantly higher rates of primary composite endpoint in both univariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.97; p=0.004) and adjusted analysis (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.05-2.01; p=0.02). Moderate AS had 1.41 (95% CI, 1.18-1.69; p<0.001) times more all-cause hospitalization per patient-year of follow-up compared to controls in the univariate model. After adjustment for significant covariates, moderate AS remained an independent predictor of all-cause hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.18-1.79; p=0.005). Furthermore, moderate AS was significantly associated with higher all-cause hospitalization rates in both heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (IRR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.02-1.75; p=0.038) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction [IRR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67; p=0.026). Conclusions: Moderate AS in conjunction with elevated BNP portends a significantly worse prognosis than those without moderate AS and should be followed closely.

제동 액츄에이터 손상을 고려한 2차 충돌 예방에 관한 연구 (A Study on Prevention of Secondary Collision considering Failure of Brake Actuator)

  • 양희철;김두용;강태완;소민우;권재준;박기홍
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.553-563
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    • 2015
  • Reportedly the fatality rate from secondary collision is six times higher than the average fatality rate from all traffic accidents. So prevention of the secondary collision is attracting significant attention from automotive industries. However, the secondary collision prevention systems that have been developed are not considering possibility of brake actuator failure that can occur by the impact during the initial collision. In this paper, a new system has been developed that could prevent secondary collision even in case of brake actuator failure by taking advantage of still operating actuators. In this system, a steering control is performed for maintaining a lane by using linear quadratic regulator. Additionally, the system attempts differential brake control with the remaining braking capability to stop the vehicle in the shortest distance. Through simulation in various collision scenarios, the system has demonstrated significant potential of preventing secondary collision that could otherwise have resulted in severe fatality.

Denoising Auto Encoder 기법을 활용한 진동 데이터 전처리 및 성능비교 (Vibration Data Denoising and Performance Comparison Using Denoising Auto Encoder Method)

  • 장준교;노천명;김성수;이순섭;이재철
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제27권7호
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    • pp.1088-1097
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    • 2021
  • 기계 장비의 진동 데이터는 필연적으로 노이즈를 포함하고 있다. 이러한 노이즈는 기계 장비의 유지보수를 진행하는데 악영향을 끼친다. 그에 따라 데이터의 노이즈를 얼마나 효과적으로 제거해주냐에 따라 학습 모델의 성능을 좌우한다. 본 논문에서는 시계열 데이터를 전처리 함에 있어 특성추출 과정을 포함하지 않는 Denoising Auto Encoder 기법을 활용하여 데이터의 노이즈를 제거했다. 또한 기계 신호 처리에 널리 사용되는 Wavelet Transform과 성능 비교를 진행했다. 성능비교는 고장 탐지율을 계산하여 진행했으며 보다 정확한 비교를 위해 분류 성능 평가기준 중 하나인 F-1 Score를 계산하여 성능 비교를 진행했다. 고장을 탐지하는 과정에서는 One-Class SVM 기법을 활용하여 고장 데이터를 탐지했다. 성능 비교 결과 고장 진단율과 오차율 측면에서 Denoising Auto Encoder 기법이 Wavelet Transform 기법에 비해 보다 좋은 성능을 나타냈다.

연약지반 굴착에 따른 지반파괴 억지대책 실내모형 실험 (Model Test of Stabilizing Measures for Ground Failure Due to Soft Ground Excavation)

  • 김재홍
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권3호
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    • pp.907-917
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    • 2014
  • 연약지반을 매립후 굴착을 시행할 경우 흙막이벽체를 설치하더라도 배면지반에 지반파괴가 발생한다. 이를 최소화하기 위해 억지말뚝을 적용 후 실내모형 실험을 시행하여 억지효과를 규명하였다. 모형토조내 점토를 충진하고 계측시스템을 이용하여, 무보강일 경우와 억지말뚝으로 보강한 경우를 설정하여 굴착에 따른 배면지반의 침하, 간극수압, 토압을 측정하였다. 모형실험 결과 억지말뚝으로 보강할 경우 무보강시와 비교할 때 굴착 단계의 증가와 배면지반의 침하가 감소된 것으로 평가되었다. 간극수압은 보강여부와는 크게 상관없었고, 침하율은 적게 나타났다. 또한, 굴착깊이가 배면지반에 매우 큰 영향을 미치고, 굴착지점과 가까울수록 최대 침하가 발생되는 것으로 평가되었다.

패치로딩을 받는 알루미늄 합금 플레이트 거더의 강도 예측에 대한 기초 연구 (Basic Research for Resistance Prediction of Aluminium Alloy Plate Girders Subjected to Patch Loading)

  • 오영철;배동균;고재용
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.218-227
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 실험 모형을 이용한 탄소성 대변형 시리즈 해석을 수행하여 플레이트 거더의 파손모드와 최종하중을 예측하였다. 수치해석 모형의 붕괴모드는 재하 시 플랜지에서 소성 힌지가 형성되었으며 실험모형의 붕괴모드와 일치하였다. 또한, 웹에서 항복선이 형성되어 크리플링 붕괴모드가 발생하는 것을 관찰할 수 있었으며 각각의 실험모형과 수치모형 최종하중의 평균값 1.07, 표준편차 0.04, 변동계수 0.04로 선형성을 유지하였으며 전체 최종하중 결과도 대략 8 % 오차를 나타내었다. 이는 수치모형 결과가 실험 및 적용 기준에 매우 만족하고 양호한 결과를 도출하였다고 생각한다. 따라서 알루미늄합금 플레이트 거더의 최종하중 예측 시 실험 및 적용 기준과 함께 병행하여 적용을 한다면 이에 대한 합리적 안전수준을 유지한다면 더 효율적이고 경제적 알루미늄 합금 플레이트 거더의 파손모드 및 최종하중에 대해 예측할 수 있을 거라고 생각한다.