• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Area Index

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Optimal valve installation of water distribution network considering abnormal water supply scenarios (비정상 물공급 시나리오를 고려한 상수도관망 최적 밸브위치 결정)

  • Lee, Seungyub;Jung, Donghwi
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.10
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    • pp.719-728
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    • 2019
  • Valve in water distribution network (WDN), that controls the flow in pipes, is used to isolate a segment (a part of WDN) under abnormal water supply conditions (e.g., pipe breakage, water quality failure event). The segment isolation degrades pressure and water serviceability in neighboring area during the water service outage of the segment. Recent hydraulic and water quality failure events reported encouraging WDN valve installation based on various abnormal water supply scenarios. This study introduces a scenario-based optimal valve installation approach to optimize the number of valves, the amount of undelivered water, and a shortest water supply path indicator (i.e., Hydraulic Geodesic Index). The proposed approach is demonstrated in the valve installation of Pescara network, and the optimal valve sets are obtained under multiple scenarios and compared to the existing valve set. Pressure-driven analysis (PDA) scheme is used for a network hydraulic simulation. The optimal valve set derived from the proposed method has 19 fewer valves than the existing valve set in the network and the amount of undelivered water was also lower for the optimal valve set. Reducing the reservoir head requires a greater number of valves to achieve the similar functionality of the WDN with the optimal valve set of the original reservoir head. This study also compared the results of demand-driven analysis (DDA) and the PDA and confirmed that the latter is required for optimal valve installation.

Anti-Müllerian hormone as a predictor of polycystic ovary syndrome treated with clomiphene citrate

  • Hestiantoro, Andon;Negoro, Yuwono Sri;Afrita, Yohana;Wiweko, Budi;Sumapradja, Kanadi;Natadisastra, Muharam
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.207-214
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    • 2016
  • Objective: This study aimed to determine the threshold of $anti-M{\ddot{u}}llerian$ hormone (AMH) as predictor of follicular growth failure in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients treated with clomiphene citrate (CC). Methods: Fifty female subjects with PCOS were recruited and divided into two groups based on successful and unsuccessful follicular growth. Related variables such as age, infertility duration, cigarette smoking, use of Moslem hijab, sunlight exposure, fiber intake, body mass index, waist circumference, AMH level, 25-hydroxy vitamin D level, and growth of dominant follicles were obtained, assessed, and statistically analyzed. Results: The AMH levels of patients with successful follicular growth were significantly lower (p= 0.001) than those with unsuccessful follicular growth ($6.10{\pm}3.52$ vs. $10.43{\pm}4.78ng/mL$). A higher volume of fiber intake was also observed in the successful follicular growth group compared to unsuccessful follicular growth group (p= 0.001). Our study found the probability of successful follicle growth was a function of AMH level and the amount of fiber intake, expressed as Y =-2.35+($-0.312{\times}AMH\;level$)+($0.464{\times}fiber\;intake$) (area under the curve, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.98; p< 0.001). Conclusion: The optimal threshold of AMH level in predicting the failure of follicle growth in patients with PCOS treated with CC was 8.58 ng/mL.

Probabilistic Analysis for Stability Evaluation of Landslides Using Geo-spatial Information (지형공간 정보를 활용한 산사태 안정평가의 확률론적 해석)

  • Park, Byung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.3 s.37
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of the current research is to evaluate the possibility of landslides by using geo-spatial information system. Geological information has been summarized and stability analysis for infinite slopes has been conducted based on the force equilibrium. In addition, the analysis of landslides was performed based on probabilistic approach by using probabilistic variables which can include uncertainty of input parameters. For the purpose of testifing the applicability of the analysis method actual geological data from a construction site was obtained, thereby performing both a preliminary analysis for a large area and detailed analysis for a better result. As a result of the current analysis several issues such as the possibility of development of landslides, detailed analysis of where landslides are most likely to be developed were analysed by using two concepts of safety and index of failure probability.

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Charlson comorbidity index as a predictor of periodontal disease in elderly participants

  • Lee, Jae-Hong;Choi, Jung-Kyu;Jeong, Seong-Nyum;Choi, Seong-Ho
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study investigated the validity of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) as a predictor of periodontal disease (PD) over a 12-year period. Methods: Nationwide representative samples of 149,785 adults aged ${\geq}60$ years with PD (International Classification of Disease, 10th revision [ICD-10], K052-K056) were derived from the National Health Insurance Service-Elderly Cohort during 2002-2013. The degree of comorbidity was measured using the CCI (grade 0-6), including 17 diseases weighted on the basis of their association with mortality, and data were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression in order to investigate the associations of comorbid diseases (CDs) with PD. Results: The multivariate Cox regression analysis with adjustment for sociodemographic factors (sex, age, household income, insurance status, residence area, and health status) and CDs (acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, cerebral vascular accident, dementia, pulmonary disease, connective tissue disorders, peptic ulcer, liver disease, diabetes, diabetes complications, paraplegia, renal disease, cancer, metastatic cancer, severe liver disease, and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]) showed that the CCI in elderly comorbid participants was significantly and positively correlated with the presence of PD (grade 1: hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; P<0.001; grade ${\geq}2$: HR, 1.12, P<0.001). Conclusions: We demonstrated that a higher CCI was a significant predictor of greater risk for PD in the South Korean elderly population.

Performance Evaluation and Forecasting Model for Retail Institutions (유통업체의 부실예측모형 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Uk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

Analysis of prognostic factors affecting poor outcomes in 41 cases of Fournier gangrene

  • Hahn, Hyung Min;Jeong, Kwang Sik;Park, Dong Ha;Park, Myong Chul;Lee, Il Jae
    • Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research
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    • v.95 no.6
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    • pp.324-332
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: We present our experience involving the management of this disease, identifying prognostic factors affecting treatment outcomes. Methods: The patients treated for Fournier gangrene at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. Data collected included demographics, extent of soft tissue necrosis, predisposing factors, etiological factors, laboratory values, and treatment outcomes. The severity index and score were calculated. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the association between potential predictors and clinical outcomes. Results: A total of 41 patients (male:female = 33:8) were studied. The mean age was 54.4 years (range, 24-79 years). The most common predisposing factor was diabetes mellitus (n = 19, 46.3%). Sixteen patients (39.0%) were current smokers. Seven patients had chronic kidney disease. The most frequent etiology was urogenital lesion (41.5%). The mortality rate was 22.0% (n = 9). Multivariate regression analyses showed that extension of necrosis beyond perineal/inguinal area and pre-existing chronic kidney disease were significant and independent predictors of mortality. Extension of necrosis beyond perineal/inguinal area was a significant predictor of increased duration in the intensive care unit and hospital stay. In addition, pre-existing chronic kidney disease was a significant predictor of flap reconstruction in the wound. Conclusion: Fournier gangrene with extensive soft tissue necrosis and pre-existing chronic kidney disease was associated with poor prognosis and complexity of patient management. Early recognition of dissemination and premorbid renal function is essential to reduce mortality and establish a management plan for this disease.

Types and Characteristics of Landslides in Danyang Geopark (단양 지질공원 내의 산사태 유형과 특징)

  • Seong-Woo Moon;Ho-Geun Kim;Yong-Seok Seo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.427-438
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    • 2023
  • We carried out a geological survey to classify the types of mass movement in Danyang Geopark (where various rock types are distributed) and analyzed the mechanical and hydraulic characteristics of landslide materials using a series of laboratory tests. Debris flows occurred in areas of limestone/marble, shale, and porphyroblastic gneiss, and limestone/marble landslides were distinguished from the others through the presence of karren topography. Soil tests showed that soil derived from weathered gneiss, which has a higher proportion of coarse grains, has a higher friction angle, lower cohesion, and larger hydraulic conductivity than soils from areas of limestone/marble, and shale. Rock failure mass movements occurred in areas of phyllite, sandstone, and conglomerate and were subdivided into plane failure, block-fall, and boulder-fall types in areas of phyllite, sandstone, and conglomerate, respectively. The shear strength of phyllite is much lower than that of the other types of rock, which have similar rock quality. The slake durability index of the conglomerate is similar to that of the other rock types, which have similar degrees of weathering, but differential weathering of the matrix and clasts was clearly observed when comparing the samples before and after the test. This study can help establish appropriate reinforcement and disaster prevention measures, which depend on the type of mass movement expected given the geological characteristics of an area.

Clinical Analysis on Cancer of the Hypopharynx (하인두암의 임상적 고찰)

  • Kim Young-Ho;Choi Eun-Chang;Hong Won-Pyo;Kim Moon-Suk;Lee Sei-Young;Hong Jung-Pyoe;Chung Hyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Head & Neck Oncology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.46-53
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    • 1998
  • Background: Hypopharyngeal cancer represents about one-third the incidence of laryngeal cancer which is the most common cancer in head and neck area. Although there have been numerous reports regarding its clinical and statistical characteristics, more precise and ample data should be collected and analyzed in this country. Objectives: This study was designed to evaluate the pattern and patient's profile of the hypopharyngeal cancer, and we reviewed the treatment outcomes to search for an index of treatment modalities. Materials and Methods: The authors retrospectively analyzed 73 cases of hypopharyngeal cancer treated at Yonsei Medical Center during the 10-year period from 1985 to 1994. Five-year survival rate was calculated according to the primary site, clinical stage and treatment modality. Results: The incidence was predominated in male by 9 to 1 and peak incidence was 6th and 7th decades. Pyriform sinus was the main primary site(80.8%) followed by posterior hypopharyngeal wall(13.7%) and postcricoid area(5.5%). Advanced stage cancers(87.7%) were more common than early stage cancers. Radiotherapy(60.3%) was the most commonly used as primary treatment modality. Neck node metastasis was early occurred even in early stage cancers(61.5%), and overall rate of neck node metastasis was 69.9%. All surgical cases received procedures more than total laryngectomy and partial pharyngectomy. The most common cause of death was primary failure(81.5%) and it was highest in radiotherapy group. Five-year survival rate was significantly high in surgery group(90.9%). The overall 5-year survival rate of hypopharyngeal cancer was 30.3%. Conclusion: High index of suspicion should be required for early diagnosis. Also, surgery may be recommended for the primary treatment modality in advanced stage cancers.

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Double-Chambered Right Ventricle in an Old Standard Poodle Dog

  • Yunho Jeong;Yoonhwan Kim;Eunchan Lee;Ju-Hyun An;Sooyoung Choi;Jin-Young Chung;Jin-Ok Ahn
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.130-134
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    • 2023
  • A 12-year-old Standard Poodle presented with intermittent weakness and occasional dyspnea at the Veterinary Medicine Teaching Hospital of Kangwon National University. A grade of 4 out of 6 systolic murmur with an irregular tachycardic rhythm was auscultated on both sides of the chest. Systolic blood pressure was 140 mmHg. Panting was noticed in the hospital, but there was no crackle sound. Blood analysis revealed mild increases in liver panel levels (alanine aminotransferase 149 [reference interval, 19-70] U/L; and alkaline phosphatase, 185 [reference interval, 15-127] U/L) and severe increases in cardiac biomarker levels (n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, 4169 [reference interval, 50-900] pmol/L; and cardiac troponin I, 0.22 [reference interval, 0.03-0.12] ng/mL). On electrocardiography, irregularly irregular supraventricular tachycardic rhythm with an f-wave and no distinct p-wave was observed. Generalized cardiomegaly with an enlarged right atrium and left ventricle was confirmed on thoracic radiography. Moreover, hepatomegaly and an enlarged caudal vena cava were observed. Echocardiographic evaluation revealed a fibromuscular diaphragm in the right ventricle. Because of the obstructive lesion in the right ventricle, the right atrium and ventricle were enlarged (right atrial area index, 38.82 cm2/m2 [reference interval, 4.2-10.2 cm2/m2]; right ventricle end-diastolic area index, 14.152 cm2/m2 [reference interval, 4.9-10.92 cm2/m2]). Accordingly, the patient was diagnosed with double-chambered right ventricle (DCRV). Pimobendan, furosemide, enalapril, diltiazem, and S-adenosylmethionine (SAMe) were prescribed, and all symptoms were relieved. DCRV is a right-sided congenital heart defect resembling pulmonic valve stenosis. If symptoms are not severe, medical therapy can be facilitated without surgery or the balloon dilation.

Flexural performance of cold-formed square CFST beams strengthened with internal stiffeners

  • Zand, Ahmed W. Al;Badaruzzaman, W.H. Wan;Ali, Mustafa M.;Hasan, Qahtan A.;Al-Shaikhli, Marwan S.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2020
  • The tube outward local buckling of Concrete-Filled Steel Tube (CFST) beam under high compression stress is still considered a critical problem, especially for steel tubes with a slender section compared to semi-compact and compact sections. In this study, the flexural performance of stiffened slender cold-formed square tube beams filled with normal concrete was investigated. Fourteen (14) simply supported CFST specimens were tested under static bending loads, stiffened with different shapes and numbers of steel stiffeners that were provided at the inner sides of the tubes. Additional finite element (FE) CFST models were developed to further investigate the influence of using internal stiffeners with varied thickness. The results of tests and FE analyses indicated that the onset of local buckling, that occurs at the top half of the stiffened CFST beam's cross-section at mid-span was substantially restricted to a smaller region. Generally, it was also observed that, due to increased steel area provided by the stiffeners, the bending capacity, flexural stiffness and energy absorption index of the stiffened beams were significantly improved. The average bending capacity and the initial flexural stiffness of the stiffened specimens for the various shapes, single stiffener situations have increased of about 25% and 39%, respectively. These improvements went up to 45% and 60%, for the double stiffeners situations. Moreover, the bending capacity and the flexural stiffness values obtained from the experimental tests and FE analyses validated well with the values computed from equations of the existing standards.