• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Analysis and Modeling

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Disentangling Trade Effects of the Korea - China FTA: Trade Liberalization or Political Conflicts?

  • HuiHui Yin;Juyoung Cheong
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.21-42
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the trade effect of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement (KCFTA) which coincides with political conflicts between the two countries due to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in Korea. The two events occurred in the same year and both are likely to affect trade between two countries but in opposite directions. Therefore, it is crucial to distinguish between the trade effects from the KCFTA event and those from the THAAD event to evaluate the true FTA effects. However, this would be difficult when using only annual data. Accordingly, ex post studies to examine the trade effects of KCFTA are lacking in trustworthiness while many ex ante studies that conjecture the positive trade effects neglect the THAAD deployment impact. This paper aims to fill that gap. Design/methodology - Given that the KCFTA and THAAD events occurred in the same year but in different months, we use the monthly data from 2000 to 2019 of Korea's exports to bracket this period. We employ the difference-in-difference (DID) method within a gravity equation specification that uses hi-dimensional fixed effects to address various endogeneity issues and seasonal effects. We identify the net impact of KCFTA ratification from these two near-simultaneous events to quantify the effects of trade liberalization between these two countries. Findings - After isolating the THAAD effects on trade, the analysis creates a positive and statistically significant coefficient estimate of the KCFTA impact. In contrast, failing to isolate the THAAD effect produced a negative and statistically significant coefficient estimate of the KCFTA impact. Our results indicate that KCFTA independently increased Korea's exports to China by 10.2%, but that this increase was fully mitigated by the THAAD event. Further, our results verify that unobserved heterogeneity and multilateral resistance are technically difficult to account for in those estimations as that rely solely upon annual data, as this type of data are inadequate to control for the potential for endogeneity. Originality/value - This paper is one of the first studies to carefully evaluate the net trade effects of the KCFTA on Korea's largest trading partner while isolating the impact of simultaneously occurred political events that may influence trade in opposing directions. Our findings indicate that the lack of prior evidence of positive trade effects of the KCFTA when using annual data may be attributed to a failure to identify the impact of each event separately. This analysis supports using the correct modeling specification to avoid misleading conclusions when evaluating any important international trade policy.

Factors Affecting Intention of Youth Entrepreneurship : A Comparative Study of Mentored vs. Non-Mentored Groups (청년 창업의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 : 창업 멘토링 유무의 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Joon-byeong;Lee, Sang-jik
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.201-223
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    • 2024
  • This study undertook an empirical analysis to examine the impact of various factors on entrepreneurial intention among young people, with a particular focus on the role of startup mentoring. Employing a survey distributed nationwide, data from 250 valid respondents were subjected to structural equation modeling to investigate these dynamics. The analysis uncovered that workplace stress, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control positively influence the entrepreneurial intentions of youth. Meanwhile, technological constraints negatively affected these intentions. The study did not explore the potential effects of future uncertainty and the burden of failure. Significantly, it was found that startup mentoring plays a crucial role in mitigating the negative impacts that may deter young individuals from pursuing entrepreneurship. Mentoring was instrumental in reducing negative influences, thereby fostering a more conducive environment for entrepreneurial ambition. By integrating the Push-Pull-Mooring (PPM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) models, this research not only validates these frameworks within the context of youth entrepreneurship but also underscores the essential function of startup mentoring in enhancing entrepreneurial intentions. The insights from this study highlight the importance of mentoring programs in nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit among the youth, suggesting that targeted mentoring support can play a pivotal role in overcoming barriers to entrepreneurship.

A Numerical Analysis to Estimate Disposal Spacing and Rock Mass Condition for High Efficiency Repository Based on Temperature Criteria of Bentonite Buffer (벤토나이트 완충재 설계 기준 온도에 따른 고효율 처분시스템 처분 간격 및 암반 조건 산정을 위한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Il;Lee, Changsoo;Kim, Jin-Seop;Cho, Dongkeun
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.289-308
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    • 2021
  • This study conducts coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical modeling to investigate the maximum temperature and conditions for securing mechanical stability of the high-level radioactive waste repository when temperature criteria of bentonite buffer are 100℃ and 125℃, respectively. In case of temperature criterion of buffer as 100℃, the maximum temperatures at the interface between canister and buffer are calculated to be 99.4℃ and 99.8℃, respectively for a case with disposal tunnel spacing of 40 m and deposition hole spacing of 5.5 m and for the other case with disposal tunnel spacing of 30 m and deposition hole spacing of 6.5 m. In case of temperature criterion of buffer as 125℃, spacings of disposal tunnel and deposition hole could be decreased to 30 m and 4.5 m, respectively, which reduces the disposal area up to 55% compared to the disposal area of KRS+. According to analysis of mechanical stability for various disposal spacings, RMR of rock mass for KRS+ should be larger than 72.4 which belongs to good rock in RMR classification to prevent failure of rock mass. As disposal spacing is decreased, required RMR of rock mass is increased. In order to prevent failure of rock mass for a case with disposal tunnel spacing of 30 m and deposition hole spacing of 4.5 m, RMR larger than 87.3 is needed. However, mechanical stability of the repository is secured for all cases with RMR over 75 considering the enhancement of rock strength due to confining stress induced by swelling of the bentonite buffer and backfill.

Case Study on Functional Bike Design for Elderly and Disabled (고령자.장애인을 위한 기능성 자전거디자인 사례연구)

  • Hong, Jung-Pyo;Hyoung, Sung-Eun;Jin, Hye-Ryeon;Seo, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Se-Hee;Yu, Mi;Kwon, Tae-Kyu
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2011
  • Health care service's added value and sustainability has been formed, through the product developing about sports equipment and special equipment for disabled in order to improve the life quality, with the increasing population of elderly and the attention about health care. This research's design and 3 testing sections has been done according to design process for design development of functional bike. 1st test is done through researching from 4 aspects: structure, aesthetic, function and using. In the 2nd testing, 10 universal design items were used to evaluate 10 modeling samples, and sample F which has high evaluation overall was chosen. In 3rd test, evaluation was done from the user service scene about the mock-up with 1/4 scale size. PPP (product performance program) which is constructed with 60 evaluation items about functional bike's service was tested, and these items were fixed through discussing with experts. Through the result we knew the aesthetic elements had relationship with proportion, unity and typicality. In 10 items (55 survey items), the scores of items with physical exposure's minimization, simple and intuitively usage showed high, on the contrary, the other items' scores was very low, such as information delivery's consideration and thought, failure preventing. The evaluation will be done once more by health care experts, designers and elderly together if the physical model could be made for getting accurate measurement about above test result in the future.

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The Influence of Authentic Leadership on Intention to Share Knowledge Through Organization Identification and Organization Commitment: Analysis of the Moderating Effect of Reciprocal Feedback and Task Interdependence (진성 리더십이 조직 동일시와 조직 몰입을 통해 지식공유 의도에 미치는 영향: 상호피드백과 업무 상호의존성 조절효과 분석)

  • Hwang, Inho
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.269-285
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    • 2021
  • As the systematic management of knowledge within an organization is recognized as a core factor for the continuous growth of an organization, organizations are increasing their interest in knowledge management. Knowledge management requires the active sharing of knowledge by insiders of the organization, but there are cases of failure due to the lack of participation of leaders and employees of the organization. The purpose of this study is to suggest a mechanism by which the authentic leadership of leaders in small and medium-sized enterprises(SME), which are relatively lacking in knowledge production capacity, leads to intention to share knowledge of employees. In addition, the study confirms that reciprocal feedback and task interdependence moderate the relationship between antecedent factors and intention to share knowledge. In this study, a research model was derived based on precedent research, and 272 samples were obtained by conducting a questionnaire survey on employees of SME that introduced a knowledge management policy. And, the study verified the hypothesis by applying structural equation modeling based on AMOS 22.0. The results of the study proved that authentic leadership has a positive effect on the intention to share knowledge through organization identification and organization commitment, and confirmed that reciprocal feedback and work interdependence moderate the relationship between knowledge sharing intentions and antecedent factors. This study suggests the mechanism by which the authentic behavior of the leaders of SMEs affects the knowledge sharing behavior of employees, and suggests that work cooperation strengthens the influence of the mechanism.

Measurement of Joint-Orientation and Monitoring of Displacement in Tunnel using 3D Laser Scanning System (3차원 레이저 스캐닝 시스템을 이용한 불연속면의 방향성 측정과 터널 변위 모니터링)

  • Shon, Ho-Woong;Oh, Seok-Hoon;Kim, Young-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.47-62
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    • 2006
  • More than 70% of Korean Peninsula is consisted of mountains, so that lots of roads, rail-roads and tunnel,which play a pivotal role in the industry activity, are existed along the rock-slope and in the rock-mass. Thus,it is urgent that tegration of management system through the optimum survey and design of rock-slope excavation, proper stabilization method and database of rock-slope. However, conventional methods have shortcoming with the economy of survey time and human resources, and the overcome of difficulties of approach to the in-situ rock-slope. To overcome the limitation of conventional method, this paper proposed the development of remote measurement system using Terrestrial Laser Scanning System. The method using Terrestrial 3D Laser Scanning System, which can get 3D spatial information on the rock-slope and2)Dept. Geosystem Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea tunnel, has an advantage of reduction of measurement time and the overcome of difficulties of approach to the in-situ rock-slope/dam/tunnel. In the case of rock-slope, through the analysis of 3D modeling of point-cloud by Terrestrial Laser Scanning System, orientation of discontinuity, roughness of joint surface, failure shape and volume were successively achieved. in the case of tunnel face, through reverse-engineering, monitoring of displacement was possible.

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Stability Analysis of the Excavation Slope on Soft Ground using Sheet Pile (널말뚝을 이용한 연약지반 굴착사면의 안정해석)

  • Kang, Yea Mook;Cho, Seong Seop;Lee, Dal Won
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 1996
  • The following results were obtained by analyzing the displacement, strain and stability of ground at the soft ground excavation using sheet pile. 1. Before setting the strut, the horizontal displacement was large on the upper part of excavated side, but after setting the strut, it showed concentrated phenomenon while being moved to go down to the excavated side. 2. After setting the strut, the displacement of sheet pile was rapidly decreased about a half compared with before setting the strut. The limitation of excavation depth was shown approximately GL-8m after setting double stair strut. 3. Maximum shear strain was gradually increased with depth of excavation, and local failure possibility due to shear deformation at the bottom of excavation was decreased by reinforcement of strut. 4. Maximum horizontal displacement of sheet pile at GL-7.5m was shown 0.2% of excavation depth in elasto-plastic method, and 0.6% in finite-element methods, and the maximum displacement was occurred around the bottom of excavation. 5. To secure the safety factor about penetration depth in the ground of modeling, D/H should be more than 0.89 in the case of one stair strut, and more than 0.77 in the case of double stair strut. 6. The relation of safety factor and D/H about the penetration depth was appeared, Fs=0.736(D/H) + 0.54 in the case of one stair strut, and Fs=0.750(D/H) + 0.62 in the case of double stair strut.

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Development of intranet-based Program Management Information System of multi-complex project with application of BIM (BIM을 활용한 다중복합 프로젝트의 인트라넷 기반 통합사업관리체계 구축 방안)

  • Song, Il-Bab;Hur, Young-Ran;Seo, Jong-Won
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2012
  • Public construction projects need complex and multi-functional management skill, since the most of public construction projects are comprised of multi-project and mega-projects. In order to effectively manage construction projects, PMIS is widely used. However the majority of the current PMIS have been developed as a single project-oriented business management system. Thus compatibility problems are encountered during the process of integrating the entire systems to manage the multi-complex projects. In addition, the form of orders applying BIM are increased recently, but the research and development of BIM based PMIS are still lacking. In this study, therefore, the functions of PMIS main objectives based on the analysis of PMIS As-Is and To-Be of PMIS, the dual management system utilizing Internet and Intranet will be proposed to integrate the individual PMIS with Integrated Program Management System. Rather than combining commercial BIM tool and PMIS directly, which is the common method of failure, the sequential process model to adopt BIM based PMIS is also explained. Step-by-step development method of BIM based PMIS is suggested to prepare for the activation of BIM technology in the nearest future.

Heat Transfer Characteristics of the Asphalt pavement by Solar Energy accumulation (열에너지 누적에 따른 아스팔트 포장의 열전달 특성 변화)

  • Lee, Kwan-Ho;Kim, Seong-Kyum;Oh, Seung-Sig
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2020
  • Asphalt pavement accounts for more than 90% of the total pavement in Korea. Pavement is most widely constructed among construction structures. The heat transfer characteristics (Thermophysical Properties) of the asphalt pavement cause the heat island effect in downtown areas. An increasing asphalt surface temperature is one of the major causes of damage to asphalt pavement. This study examined the heat transfer characteristic factors according to solar energy accumulation in an asphalt mixture. The specimens (WC-2 & PA-13, Recycled aggregate used WC-2) used in the experiment were compacted with a Gyratory Compactor. The thermo-physical properties (thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal emissivity) and solar energy accumulation were evaluated. The thermal accumulation and HFM tests revealed a 1.2- to 2.0-fold difference. This indicates that the thermal conductivity of the asphalt mixture pavement changes with the accumulation of solar energy. An analysis of the correlation of thermal conductivity according to the surface temperature of the asphalt mixture showed that WC-2 was logarithmic, and PA-13 was linear. Experiments on the heat transfer characteristics of asphalt pavement that can be used for thermal failure modeling of asphalt were conducted.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.