• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.38 no.11
• /
• pp.19-30
• /
• 2022

Developing a fragility curve for the levee requires calculating the probability of failure according to the water level for each failure mode. Since probabilistic analysis requires iterative analysis to account for variability in geotechnical parameters, the fragility curve development inevitably requires many iterative calculations. Therefore, approximate probabilistic analysis techniques are usually applied to reduce the amount of calculation in developing the levee fragility curve. However, their accuracy has not been determined clearly. This study calculated the failure probability of slope and piping failure mode for an actual levee through probabilistic methods, such as FOSM, PEM, and MCS. Then, the fragility curve of the levee according to the water level was developed. The results of the approximate methods: FOSM and PEM, were compared with those of MCS to evaluate the applicability to the fragility curve for slope and piping failure mode.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.20 no.9
• /
• pp.77-89
• /
• 2004

While limit states design (LSD) is currently the standard structural design practice, it is relatively new in the geotechnical design. Adoption of LSD far geotechnical design is an international trend. In the present study, various LSD codes from the United States, Canada, and Europe were reviewed. A simple first-order-second-moment (FOSM) reliability analysis was performed to determine theoretically the ranges of load and resistance factor values for representative loads and foundation bearing capacity, respectively. In order for foundation design to be consistent with current structural design practice, it would be desirable to use the same loads, load factors and load combinations. The values of load factor, obtained from the FOSM analysis, were found to be generally consistent with those given in the codes, whereas the values of resistance factor indicated overall lower ranges due to high values of coefficient of variation used in the analysis. Since the degree of uncertainties included in bearing capacity of foundations varies with the methods used to estimate the bearing capacity, different values of resistance factor should be used fur different methods. For the purpose, continuous efforts are needed to be made first to accurately identify and quantify the uncertainties in the methods.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.17-35
• /
• 2012

Simplified equations for fundamental period of vibration of skeletal structures provided by most seismic design provisions suffer from the absence of any associated confidence levels and of any reference to their empirical basis. Therefore, such equations may typically give a sector of designers the false impression of yielding a fairly accurate value of the period of vibration. This paper, although not addressing simplified codes equations, introduces a set of mathematical equations utilizing the theory of error propagation and First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) techniques to determine bounds on the relative error in theoretically calculated fundamental period of vibration of skeletal structures. In a complementary step, and for verification purposes, Monte Carlo simulation technique has been also applied. The latter, despite involving larger computational effort, is expected to provide more precise estimates than FOSM methods. Studies of parametric uncertainties applied to reinforced concrete frame bents - potentially idealized as SDOF systems - are conducted demonstrating the effect of randomness and uncertainty of various relevant properties, shaping both mass and stiffness, on the variance (i.e. relative error) in the estimated period of vibration. Correlation between mass and stiffness parameters - regarded as random variables - is also thoroughly discussed. According to achieved results, a relative error in the period of vibration in the order of 19% for new designs/constructions and of about 25% for existing structures for assessment purposes - and even climbing up to about 36% in some special applications and/or circumstances - is acknowledged when adopting estimates gathered from the literature for relative errors in the relevant random input variables.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.59 no.4
• /
• pp.739-759
• /
• 2016

The failure of civil engineering systems is a consequence of decision making under uncertain conditions. Generally, buried flexible pipes are designed for their transversal behavior to prevent from the important failure mode of buckling. However, the interaction effects between soil and pipe are neglected and the uncertainties in their properties are usually not considered in pipe design. In this regard, the present research paper evaluates the effects of these uncertainties on the uncertainty of the critical buckling hoop force of flexible pipes shallowly buried using the subgrade reaction theory (Winkler model) and First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. The results show that the structural uncertainties of the studied pipes and those of the soil properties have a significant effect on the uncertainty of the critical buckling hoop force, and therefore taking into account these latter in the design of the shallowly flexible pipes for their buckling behavior is required.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.391-398
• /
• 2011

After a concrete is poured, reinforced concrete structures were distressed by physical and chemical factor over time. It is in need to define important variables related to structural behavior for effectively conducting seismic analysis of structures with age-related degradation. In this study, a sensibility analysis using the first-order second moment method was performed to analyze an important variables for the reinforced concrete shear wall with age-related degradation. Because the seismic capacity of aging structures without a concrete hardening effect can be underestimated, the sensibility of analysis variables was analyzed according to the concrete hardening. Important variables for RC shear wall with age-related degradation was presented by using the tornado diagram.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.54 no.3
• /
• pp.926-939
• /
• 2022

The area of this study will cover the location-wise seismic response variation of an electrical cabinet in nuclear power point (NPP) based on classical reliability analysis. The location-based seismic ground motion (GM) selection is carried out with the help of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using PSHRisktool, where the variation of reliability analysis can be understood from the relation between the reliability index and intensity measure. Two different approaches such as the first-order second moment method (FOSM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are helped to evaluate and compare the reliability assessment of the cabinet. The cabinet is modeled with material uncertainty utilizing Steel01 as the material model and the fiber section modeling approach is considered to characterize the section's nonlinear reaction behavior. To verify the modal frequency, this study compares the FEM result with recorded data using Least-Squares Complex Exponential (LSCE) method from the impact hammer test. In spite of a few investigations, the main novelty of this study is to introduce the reader to check and compare the seismic reliability assessment variation in different seismic locations and for different earthquake levels. Alongside, the betterment can be found by comparing the result between two considered reliability estimation methods.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.165-175
• /
• 2017

This paper studies soil properties uncertainty and its implementation in the seismic response evaluation of structures. For this, response sensitivity of two 4- and 12-story RC shear walls to the soil properties uncertainty by considering soil structure interaction (SSI) effects is investigated. Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) model is used for shallow foundation modeling and the uncertainty of soil properties is expanded to the foundation stiffness and strength parameters variability. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is employed for probabilistic evaluations. By investigating the probabilistic evaluation results it's observed that as the soil and foundation become stiffer, the soil uncertainty is found to be less important in influencing the response variability. On the other hand, the soil uncertainty becomes more important as the foundation-structure system is expected to experience nonlinear behavior to more sever degree. Since full This paper studies soil properties uncertainty and its implementation in the seismic response evaluation of structures. For this, response sensitivity of two 4- and 12-story RC shear walls to the soil properties uncertainty by considering soil structure interaction (SSI) effects is investigated. Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) model is used for shallow foundation modeling and the uncertainty of soil properties is expanded to the foundation stiffness and strength parameters variability. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation technique is employed for probabilistic evaluations. By investigating the probabilistic evaluation results it's observed that as the soil and foundation become stiffer, the soil uncertainty is found to be less important in influencing the response variability. On the other hand, the soil uncertainty becomes more important as the foundation-structure system is expected to experience nonlinear behavior to more sever degree. Since full probabilistic analysis methods like MC commonly are very time consuming, the feasibility of simple approximate methods' application including First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and ASCE41 proposed approach for the soil uncertainty considerations is investigated. By comparing the results of the approximate methods with the results obtained from MC, it's observed that the results of both FOSM and ASCE41 methods are in good agreement with the results of MC simulation technique and they show acceptable accuracy in predicting the response variability.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.211-216
• /
• 2008

Recently a lot of researches have been conducted on the progressive collapse of structures which is the total collapse of structures initiated by localized damage. Most of the previous studies on the field of progressive collapse have followed deterministic approach without considering uncertainty involved in design variables, which results in unknown reliability of the analysis results. In this study the sensitivity analyses are carried out with design variables such as yield strength, live load, damping ratio, and elastic modulus on the vertical deflection of the joint from which a column is suddenly removed. The Monte Calro simulation, tornado diagram method, and the first order second moment method(FOSM) are applied for the sensitivity study. According to the nonlinear static analysis results, the vertical deflection is most affected by the variation of yield strength of beams. The nonlinear dynamic analyses show that the behaviour of model structures is highly sensitive to variation of the yield strength of beams and the structural damping ratio.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.360-373
• /
• 2021

Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.447-453
• /
• 2010

Response-based approach is getting more preferred in determining the design sea-state for offshore structures because traditional environment-based approach is known to yield a much conservative design condition. This paper introduces the inverse first-order second-moment (IFOSM) method as a response-based approach, which is expected to give a more feasible design condition at the cost of reasonable number of motion analyses. The IFOSM method is based on the theory of probability and adopts an optimization scheme to determine the design point. Both the design maximum response and design sea state can be obtained straightforwardly from the optimum. The IFOSM method has been applied to a turret-moored FPSO's design problem and showed its effectiveness in practical use.