• Title/Summary/Keyword: Extreme Values

검색결과 413건 처리시간 0.03초

Development on Classification Standard of Drought Severity (가뭄심도 분류기준의 개선방안 제시)

  • Kwon, Jinjoo;Ahn, Jaehyun;Kim, Taewoong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2013
  • As drought is phenomenon of nature with unavoidability and repeated characteristic, it is necessary to plan to respond to it in advance and construct drought management system to minimize its damage. This study suggested standard for classification of drought, which is appropriate for our nation to respond to drought by assessing drought severity in the regions for this study. For data collection, 61 locations were selected - the locations keep precipitation data over 30 years of observation. And data for monthly precipitation for 37 years from 1973 were used. Based on this, this study classified unified drought interval into four levels using drought situation phases which are used in government. For standard for classification of drought severity fit to our nation, status of main drought was referred and these are classified based on accumulated probability of drought - 98~100% Exceptional Drought, 94~98% Extreme Drought, 90~94% Severe Drought, 86~90% Moderate Drought. Drought index (SPI, PDSI) was made in descending order and quantitative value of drought index fit to standard of classification for drought severity was calculated. To compare classification results of drought severity of SPI and PDSI with actual drought, comparison by year and month unit were analyzed. As a result, in comparison by year and comparison by month unit of SPI, drought index of each location was mostly identical each other between actual records and analyzed value. But in comparison by month unit of PDSI for same period, actual records did not correspond to analyzed values. This means that further study about mutual supplement for these indexes is necessary.

A Sensitivity Study on Nuclide Release from the Near-field of the Pyroprocessed Waste Repository System: Part 1. A Probabilistic Approach (파이로처리 폐기물 처분 시스템 근계 영역 내 핵종 유출 민감도: 제 1 부 확률론적 접근)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Jeong, Jongtae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2014
  • A parametric sensitivity to the annual exposure dose rate to the farming exposure group has been probabilistically carried out for three principal elements associated with the nuclide transport behavior in the near-field of the pyroprocessed waste repository system. Credit time for both metal and ceramic containers, annual nuclide release rete, and the degree of loss of bentonite buffer around the container are selected as the elements and investigated for important nuclides. All the elements are shown to be sensitive to the results. Methodology studied through this study and the results are expected to make a good feedback to the repository design. As a follow-up study, separated in Part 2, the A-KRS will be deterministically assessed and then compared among each other with the normal, the worst, and the best case scenarios associated with their extreme values these elements could have.

The Determination of Probability Distributions of Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Precipitation in Korea (우리나라의 연 강수량, 계절 강수량 및 월 강수량의 확률분포형 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Yeob;Lee, Sang-Ho;Hong, Young-Joo;Lee, Eun-Jai;Im, Sang-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to determine the best probability distributions of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in Korea. Data observed at 32 stations in Korea were analyzed using the L-moment ratio diagram and the average weighted distance (AWD) to identify the best probability distributions of each precipitation. The probability distribution was best represented by 3-parameter Weibull distribution (W3) for the annual precipitation, 3-parameter lognormal distribution (LN3) for spring and autumn seasons, and generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) for summer and winter seasons. The best probability distribution models for monthly precipitation were LN3 for January, W3 for February and July, 2-parameter Weibull distribution (W2) for March, generalized Pareto distribution (GPA) for April, September, October and November, GEV for May and June, and log-Pearson type III (LP3) for August and December. However, from the goodness-of-fit test for the best probability distributions of the best fit, GPA for April, September, October and November, and LN3 for January showed considerably high reject rates due to computational errors in estimation of the probability distribution parameters and relatively higher AWD values. Meanwhile, analyses using data from 55 stations including additional 23 stations indicated insignificant differences to those using original data. Further studies using more long-term data are needed to identify more optimal probability distributions for each precipitation.

On the Effective Shear Rigidity in Ship Vibration Analysis (선체진동해석(船體振動解析)에 있어서의 유효전단강성도(有效剪斷剛性度))

  • K.C.,Kim;S.H.,Choi
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 1985
  • For the analysis of vertical vibrations of a ship's hull, the Timoshenko beam analogy is accepted up to seven or eight-node modes provided that the system parameters are properly calculated. As to the shear coefficient, it has been a common practice to apply the strain energy method or the projected area method. The theoretical objection to the former is that it ignores lateral contraction due to Poisson's ratio, and the latter is of extreme simplifications. Recently, Cowper's and Stephen's shear coefficient formulas have drawn ship vibration analysts' attentions because these formulas, derivation of which are based on an integrations of the equations of three-dimensional elasticity, take Poisson's ratio into account. Providing computer programs for calculation of the shear coefficient of ship sections modeled as thin-walked multicell sections by each of the forementioned methods, the authors calculated natural vibration characteristics of a bulk carrier and of a container ship by the transfer matrix method using shear coefficients obtained by each of the methods, and discussed the results in comparision. The major conclusions resulted from this investigation are as follows: (1) The shear coefficients taking account of the effects of Poisson's ratio, Cowper's $K_c$ and Stephen's $K_s$, result in higher values of about 10% in maximum as compared with the shear coefficient $K_o$ based on the conventional strain energy methods; (a) $K_c/K_o{\cong}1.05\;and\;K_s/K_o{\cong}1.10$ for ships having single skin side-shell such as a bulk carrier. (b) $K_c/K_o{\cong}1.02\;and\;K_s/K_o{\cong}1.05$ for ships having longitudinally through bulkheads and/or double side-shells in the portion of the cargo hod such as a container carrier. (2) The distributions of the effective shear area along the ship's hull based on each of $K_o,\;K_c\;and\;K_s$ are similar each another except the both end portions. (3) Natural frequencies and mode shapes of the hull based on each of $K_c\;and\;K_s$ are of small differences as compared each other. (4) In cases of using $K_c\;or\;K_s$ in ship vibration analysis, it is also desirable to have the bending rigidity be corrected according to the effective breadth concept. And then, natural frequencies and mode shapes calculated with the bending rigidity corrected in the above and with each of $K_o,\;K_c\;and\;K_s$ result in small differences as compared each another. (5) Referring to those mentioned in the above (3) and (4) and to the full-scale experimental results reported by Asmussen et al.[17], and considering laboursome to prepare the computer input data, the following suggestions can safely be made; (a) Use of $K_o$ in ship vibration analysis is appropriate in practical senses. (b) Use of $K_c$ is appropriate even for detailed vibration analysis of a ship's hull. (6) The effective shear area based on the projected area method is acceptable for the two-node mode.

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Forest Damage Detection Using Daily Normal Vegetation Index Based on Time Series LANDSAT Images (시계열 위성영상 기반 평년 식생지수 추정을 통한 산림생태계 피해 탐지 기법)

  • Kim, Eun-sook;Lee, Bora;Lim, Jong-hwan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • 제35권6_2호
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    • pp.1133-1148
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    • 2019
  • Tree growth and vitality in forest shows seasonal changes. So, in order to detect forest damage accurately, we have to use satellite images before and after damages taken at the same season. However, temporal resolution of high or medium resolution images is very low,so it is not easy to acquire satellite images of the same seasons. Therefore, in this study, we estimated spectral information of the same DOY using time-series Landsat images and used the estimates as reference values to assess forest damages. The study site is Hwasun, Jeollanam-do, where forest damage occurred due to hail and drought in 2017. Time-series vegetation index (NDVI, EVI, NDMI) maps were produced using all Landsat 8 images taken in the past 3 years. Daily normal vegetation index maps were produced through cloud removal and data interpolation processes. We analyzed the difference of daily normal vegetation index value before damage event and vegetation index value after event at the same DOY, and applied the criteria of forest damage. Finally, forest damage map based on daily normal vegetation index was produced. Forest damage map based on Landsat images could detect better subtle changes of vegetation vitality than the existing map based on UAV images. In the extreme damage areas, forest damage map based on NDMI using the SWIR band showed similar results to the existing forest damage map. The daily normal vegetation index map can used to detect forest damage more rapidly and accurately.

Hydrological homogeneous region delineation for bivariate frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls in Korea (다변량 L-moment를 이용한 이변량 강우빈도해석에서 수문학적 동질지역 선정)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Jeong, Changsam;Joo, Kyungwon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2018
  • The multivariate regional frequency analysis has many advantages such as an adaption of regional parameters and consideration of a correlated structure of the data. The multivariate regional frequency analysis can provide the broader and more detailed information for the hydrological variables. The multivariate regional frequency analysis has not been attempted to model hydrological variables in South Korea yet. Therefore, it is required to investigate the applicability of the multivariate regional frequency analysis in the modeling of the hydrological variables. The current study investigated the applicability of the homogeneous region delineation and their characteristics in bivariate regional frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall depth-duration data. The K-medoid method was employed as a clustering method. The discordancy and heterogeneous measures were used to assess the appropriateness of the delineation results. According to the results of the clustering analysis, the employed stations could be grouped into five regions. All stations at three of the five regions led to acceptable values of discordancy measures than the threshold. The stations where have short record length led to the large discordancy measures. All grouped regions were identified as a homogeneous region based on heterogeneous measure estimates. It was observed that there are strong cross-correlations among the stations in the same region.

Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (Ⅰ): Principle and Procedure (다차원 홍수피해산정방법(Ⅰ): 원리 및 절차)

  • Choi, Seung-An;Yi, Choong-Sung;Shim, Myung-Pil;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Recently, the flood damages including losses of human lifes and property have been rapidly increased according to extreme floods. And we know that the flood control project is needed for diminishing flood damages. However, we have had the lacks in a reasonable methodology for the economic analysis of food control project. This study aims to improve the existing economic analysis method for flood control project. So, first of all, we understand the problems of existing economic analysis and investigate the methodologies of foreign countries. Based on that, the Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis(MD-FDA) is developed in this study. The survey of properties on the floodplain is conducted, then the damage rate obtained by evaluating the monetary values of surveyed property is applied, and the expected flood damage is calculated. Also by considering damage area in the floodplain as well as spatial distribution of inundated depth using GIS, the flood damages are evaluated more accurately than existing method. From the study, we know that the MD-FDA can improve the problems of existing method and evaluate the reasonable flood damages by using updated nation리 statistics.

Enhancement of Thermoelectric Properties in Cold Pressed Nickel Doped Bismuth Sulfide Compounds

  • Fitriani, Fitriani;Said, Suhana Mohd;Rozali, Shaifulazuar;Salleh, Mohd Faiz Mohd;Sabri, Mohd Faizul Mohd;Bui, Duc Long;Nakayama, Tadachika;Raihan, Ovik;Hasnan, Megat Muhammad Ikhsan Megat;Bashir, Mohamed Bashir Ali;Kamal, Farhan
    • Electronic Materials Letters
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.689-699
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    • 2018
  • Nanostructured Ni doped $Bi_2S_3$ ($Bi_{2-x}Ni_xS_3$, $0{\leq}x{\leq}0.07$) is explored as a candidate for telluride free thermoelectric material, through a combination process of mechanical alloying with subsequent consolidation by cold pressing followed with a sintering process. The cold pressing method was found to impact the thermoelectric properties in two ways: (1) introduction of the dopant atom in the interstitial sites of the crystal lattice which results in an increase in carrier concentration, and (2) introduction of a porous structure which reduces the thermal conductivity. The electrical resistivity of $Bi_2S_3$ was decreased by adding Ni atoms, which shows a minimum value of $2.35{\times}10^{-3}{\Omega}m$ at $300^{\circ}C$ for $Bi_{1.99}Ni_{0.01}S_3$ sample. The presence of porous structures gives a significant effect on reduction of thermal conductivity, by a reduction of ~ 59.6% compared to a high density $Bi_2S_3$. The thermal conductivity of $Bi_{2-x}Ni_xS_3$ ranges from 0.31 to 0.52 W/m K in the temperature range of $27^{\circ}C$ (RT) to $300^{\circ}C$ with the lowest ${\kappa}$ values of $Bi_2S_3$ compared to the previous works. A maximum ZT value of 0.13 at $300^{\circ}C$ was achieved for $Bi_{1.99}Ni_{0.01}S_3$ sample, which is about 2.6 times higher than (0.05) of $Bi_2S_3$ sample. This work show an optimization pathway to improve thermoelectric performance of $Bi_2S_3$ through Ni doping and introduction of porosity.

Effect of Magnesium Oxide on Physical and Chemical Properties of FKM Elastomer (FKM Elastomer의 물리적 및 화학적 성질에 미치는 산화마그네슘의 영향)

  • Lee, Chang-Seop;Choi, Gi-Tae;Choi, Han-Hwal
    • Elastomers and Composites
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2003
  • Metal oxide(MgO) was added to FKM rubber in order to develop automotive fuel hose which ran show elastic characteristics under extreme condition. Cure characteristics, physical properties, thermal resistance and fuel resistance of FKM compounded rubber with MgO were investigated. MgO was mixed to FKM rubber materials within the range of $0{\sim}20phr$. From the test results of rheological properties and Mooney viscosity, the $t_{s2}$, $T_{c90}$ values increased as the MgO contents increased in FKM rubber compounding. Hardness and 100% modulus of FKM compounded rubber slightly increased, but tensile strength and elongations at break slightly decreased. From the test results of thermal resistance of rubber specimens at 130, 150, and $170^{\circ}C$ for 70 hrs, the changing rate of physical properties was found to be relatively small. Fuel resistance tests were carried out for fuel A, B, C and D at $40^{\circ}C$ for 70hrs, and the results showed that the changing rate in physical properties was found to increase from Fuel A to D, Furthermore thermal properties of FKM compounded rubber containing MgO were also investigated by using TGA/DSC. The optimum mixing ratio of additive to FKM rubber to get the maximum effect on thermal resistance and fuel resistance, within the range of desirable specification for rubber material, was determined to be 6 phr for MgO.

Development of a Simulation Model for Supply Chain Management of Precast Concrete (프리캐스트 콘크리트 공급사슬 관리를 위한 시뮬레이션 모형 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyeonju;Jeon, Sangwon;Lee, Jaeil;Jeong, Keunchae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.86-98
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we developed a simulation model for supply chain management of Precast Concrete (PC) based construction. To this end, information on the Factory Production/Site Construction system was collected through literature review and field research, and based on this information, a simulation model was defined by describing the supply chain, entities, resources, and processes. Next, using the Arena simulation software, a simulation model for the PC supply chain was developed by setting model frameworks, data modules, flowchart modules, and animation modules. Finally, verification and validation were performed using five review methodologies such as model check, animation check, extreme value test, average value test, and actual case test to the developed model. As a result, it was found that the model adequately represented the flows and characteristics of the PC supply chain without any logical errors and provided accurate performance evaluation values for the target supply chains. It is expected that the proposed simulation model will faithfully play a role as a performance evaluation platform in the future for developing management techniques in order to optimally operate the PC supply chain.