Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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v.30
no.2
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pp.119-133
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2023
With the rapid growth of the economy and fossil fuel consumption, the concentration of air pollutants has increased significantly and the air pollution problem is no longer limited to small areas. We conduct statistical analysis with the actual data related to air quality that covers the entire of South Korea using R and Python. Some factors such as SO2, CO, O3, NO2, PM10, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, vapor pressure, local pressure, sea level pressure, temperature, humidity, and others are used as covariates. The main goal of this paper is to predict air quality index (AQI) spatio-temporal data. The observations of spatio-temporal big datasets like AQI data are correlated both spatially and temporally, and computation of the prediction or forecasting with dependence structure is often infeasible. As such, the likelihood function based on the spatio-temporal model may be complicated and some special modelings are useful for statistically reliable predictions. In this paper, we propose several methods for this big spatio-temporal AQI data. First, random effects with spatio-temporal basis functions model, a classical statistical analysis, is proposed. Next, neural networks model, a deep learning method based on artificial neural networks, is applied. Finally, random forest model, a machine learning method that is closer to computational science, will be introduced. Then we compare the forecasting performance of each other in terms of predictive diagnostics. As a result of the analysis, all three methods predicted the normal level of PM2.5 well, but the performance seems to be poor at the extreme value.
Azimi, Parisa;Yazdanian, Taravat;Shahzadi, Sohrab;Benzel, Edward C.;Azhari, Shirzad;Aghaei, Hossein Nayeb;Montazeri, Ali
Asian Spine Journal
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v.12
no.6
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pp.1085-1091
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2018
Study Design: Case-control. Purpose: To determine optimal cut-off value for body mass index (BMI) in predicting surgical success in patients with lumbar spinal canal stenosis (LSCS). Overview of Literature: BMI is an essential variable in the assessment of patients with LSCS. Methods: We conducted a prospective study with obese and non-obese LSCS surgical patients and analyzed data on age, sex, duration of symptoms, walking distance, morphologic grade of stenosis, BMI, postoperative complications, and functional disability. Obesity was defined as BMI of ${\geq}30kg/m^2$. Patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaire before surgery and 2 years after surgery. Surgical success was defined as ${\geq}30%$ improvement from the baseline ODI score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to estimate the optimal cut-off values of BMI to predict surgical success. In addition, correlation was assessed between BMI and stenosis grade based on morphology as defined by Schizas and colleague in total, 189 patients were eligible to enter the study. Results: Mean age of patients was $61.5{\pm}9.6years$. Mean follow-up was $36{\pm}12months$. Most patients (88.4%) were classified with grades C (severe stenosis) and D (extreme stenosis). Post-surgical success was 85.7% at the 2-year follow-up. A weak correlation was observed between morphologic grade of stenosis and BMI. Rates of postoperative complications were similar between patients who were obese and those who were non-obese. Both cohorts had similar degree of improvement in the ODI at the 2-year followup. However, patients who were non-obese presented significantly higher surgical success than those who were obese. In ROC curve analysis, a cut-off value of ${\leq}29.1kg/m^2$ for BMI in patients with LSCS was suggestive of surgical success, with 81.1% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity (area under the curve, 0.857; 95% confidence interval, 0.788-0.927). Conclusion: This study showed that the BMI can be considered a parameter for predicting surgical success in patients with LSCS and can be useful in clinical practice.
A real-time quality control system for meteorological data (air temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation) measured by an integrated meteorological sensor has been developed based on comparison of quality control procedures for meteorological data that were developed by the World Meteorological Organization and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), using time series and statistical analysis of a 12-year meteorological data set observed from 2000 to 2011 at the Incheon site in Korea. The quality control system includes missing value, physical limit, step, internal consistency, persistence, and climate range tests. Flags indicating good, doubtful, erroneous, not checked, or missing values were added to the raw data after the quality control procedure. The climate range test was applied to the monthly data for air temperature and pressure, and its threshold values were modified from ${\pm}2{\sigma}$ and ${\pm}3{\sigma}$ to ${\pm}3{\sigma}$ and ${\pm}6{\sigma}$, respectively, in order to consider extreme phenomena such as heat waves and typhoons. In addition, the threshold values of the step test for air temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed were modified to $0.7^{\circ}C$, 0.4 hPa, 5.9%, and $4.6m\;s^{-1}$, respectively, through standard deviation analysis of step difference according to their averaging period. The modified quality control system was applied to the meteorological data observed by the Weather Information Service Engine in March 2014 and exhibited improved performance compared to the KMA procedures.
Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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v.40
no.4
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pp.45-57
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1998
This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was established by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. L-coefficient of variation, L-skewness and L-kurtosis were calculated by L-moment ratio respectively. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in GEV distribution were compared by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data was acknowledged by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2. GEV distribution used in this study was found to be more suitable one than Pearson type 3 distribution by the goodness of fit test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and L-Moment ratios diagram in the applied watersheds. 3. Parameters for GEV distribution were estimated using Methods of Moments and L-Moments. 4. Design floods were calculated by Methods of Moments and L-Moments in GEV distribution. 5. It was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments using Weibull plotting position formula in GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors.
As the prediction of geomagnetic storms is becoming an important and practical problem, conditions in the Earth's magnetosphere have been studied rigorously in terms of those in the interplanetary space. Another approach to space weather forecast is to deal with it as a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecasting problem. In this study, we carry out detailed statistical analysis of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices examining the dependence of the distribution on the solar cycle and annual variations. Our main findings are as follows: (1) The distribution of parameters obtained via the superimposed epoch method follows the Gaussian distribution. (2) When solar activity is at its maximum the mean value of the distribution is shifted to the direction indicating the intense environment. Furthermore, the width of the distribution becomes wider at its maximum than at its minimum so that more extreme case can be expected. (3) The distribution of some certain heliospheric parameters is less sensitive to the phase of the solar cycle and annual variations. (4) The distribution of the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field BV and the solar wind driving function BV2, however, appears to be all dependent on the solar maximum/minimum, the descending/ascending phases of the solar cycle and the equinoxes/solstices. (5) The distribution of the AE index and the Dst index shares statistical features closely with BV and $BV^2$ compared with other heliospheric parameters. In this sense, BV and $BV^2$ are more robust proxies of the geomagnetic storm. We conclude by pointing out that our results allow us to step forward in providing the occurrence probability of geomagnetic storms for space weather and physical modeling.
Song, Cheol Ho;Eom, Jin Yong;Jang, Ik Hoon;Choe, Young Chan
Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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v.24
no.4
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pp.249-264
/
2017
Modeling the consumer demand of fresh meat requires its distinct feature which other types of food product does not have. Most of the fresh meat products are likely to be unbranded, bought on a weight basis and affected by macro shocks such as seasonality, holiday effect and the disease incidence. Furthermore, consumers tend to purchase multiple categories of fresh meat in a week. Therefore, we apply a multiple discrete/continuous model on fresh meat consumption data to study the effect of macro shocks on fresh meat sales as well as of price change. As a result shows, Each fresh meat is relatively more likely to be bought in peak season of each fresh meat compared with imported pork which is set as a 'reference category' in this analysis. For clarity of the effect of disease incidence, we perform further analysis regarding the effect of livestock disease on fresh meat purchase probability. It shows that the avian flu in 2014 has strong negative impact on the purchase probability of chicken and the foot-and-mouth disease has negative impact on the purchase probability of pork and beef for part of outbreak periods.
It is difficult to analytically derive a volumetric displacement formula for a gerotor hydraulic motor due to the complexity of the geometric shape of its gear lobes. This work proposes an analytical method for the volumetric displacement, a relatively easy method based upon two physical concepts: conservation between hydraulic energy and mechanical shaft energy, and torque equilibrium for the rotor's motion. The first research using these concepts was conducted on inner and outer rotors rotating with respect to each rotor axis. This work represents the second report conducted on an inner rotor revolving as a planetary motion on the stationary outer rotor. The formula equations regarding the volumetric displacement and flow rate are derived, and the proposed formula about the volumetric displacement is proven to be the same as another analytical displacement formula: the so-called vane length method. From the formula, volumetric displacement is calculated for an example geometry of the gear lobes. The resultant displacement is confirmed to be the same as the value calculated from the chamber volume method. The proposed analytical formula can be utilized in the analysis and design of gerotor hydraulic motors. Because it is based on torque equilibrium, this formula can provide a better understanding of torque performance, such as torque ripple, in designing a gerotor type motor.
The objective of this paper is to study arelationship between maximum response and its standard deviation of rotational shells that are subjected to uneven settlements. For this, the ratio, .eta, of the maximum response to standard deviation and it's approximate, .eta./sub apr/, are investigated by stochastic methods. Also, an equation for .eta./sub apr/, that is a function of predominant harmonic number is suggested. The settlements are represented by the Fourier series. Each term in the series contains two coefficients; the amplitude and the phase angle. It is assumed that phase angles are random variables and amplitudes are deterministic. To investigate the characteristics of .eta. and .eta./sub apr/, 100 phase angles for two types of artificial amplitudes spectra are used in the analysis. .eta. and .eta./sub apr/, are almost constant regardless of amplitude type, position of a shell or type of responses; they fall into from 2.0 to 2.5. .eta./sub apr/ is always close to .eta., but tends to be somewhat greater. It may be concluded that a maximum responses of rotational shells subjected to uneven settlements are .eta./sub apr/ (about 2.5) times of its standard deviation. It is considered that this result is used when we design rotational shell structures subjected to differential settlements.
Joon-Woo Lee;Yu-Han Han;Jeong-Taek Lee;Jin-Hyuk Park;Geun-Han Kim
Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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v.39
no.6_3
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pp.1721-1730
/
2023
As awareness of the problem of global warming emerges around the world, the role of carbon sinks in settlement is increasingly emphasized to achieve carbon neutrality in urban areas. In order to manage carbon sinks in settlement, it is necessary to identify the current status of carbon sinks. Identifying the status of carbon sinks requires a lot of manpower and time and a corresponding budget. Therefore, in this study, a map predicting the location of trees was created using already established tree location information and Sentinel-2 satellite images targeting Seoul. To this end, after constructing a tree presence/absence dataset, structured data was generated using 16 types of vegetation indices information constructed from satellite images. After learning this by applying the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, a tree prediction map was created. Afterward, the correlation between independent and dependent variables was investigated in model learning using the Shapely value of Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP). A comparative analysis was performed between maps produced for local parts of Seoul and sub-categorized land cover maps. In the case of the tree prediction model produced in this study, it was confirmed that even hard-to-detect street trees around the main street were predicted as trees.
To improve competitiveness & performance for salesmen of small & medium IT company, this study aims not only to inspect how value orientation, leadership & justice make effects for Organizational Citizenship Behavior & Business Corporate Performance & but also to explore the role of adaptive selling practices as parameter. To support the study, the data collected from 314 employees in sales roles at more than 200 IT companies was processed via. regression analysis method. The research model of study lies at identification of 'the Effects of Value Orientation, Leadership, & Justice of/Posed by the Salesmen of a IT Company on Organizational Citizenship Behavior & Corporate Performance' based on the phenomena of unfair sales strategies rampantly being taken for short-term profits & survivals despite of the value of upholding business ethics to realize long-term, sustainable growth of a business of company. The hypotheses of this study are formulated as follows. First, value orientation, leadership, & justice shall have effects on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. Second, adaptive selling practices shall function as the parameters between the independent & dependent variables. The analysis results on the research, undertaken with verification of parametric effects, confirm the following: 1. Value orientation imposes positive (+) effects on adaptive selling practices which impose positive (+) impacts on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. 2. Adaptive selling practices function as a full parameter between value orientation & organizational citizenship behavior whilst functioning as a partial parameter between value orientation & Corporate performance. 3. Leadership imposes positive (+) effects on adaptive selling practices which impose positive (+) effects on organizational citizenship behavior & Corporate performance. 4. Adaptive selling practices function as a partial parameter between leadership & organizational citizenship behavior whilst functioning as a full parameter between leadership & Corporate performance. Therefore, this study is concluded that establishing & executing sales strategies in consideration of value orientation & fairness is of extreme importance for IT companies to realize & maintain their sustainable corporate management, & last but not least, it is necessary for IT companies to proactively introduce & provide educational systems for their salesmen thus to help them to uphold & sustain ethics & values of the business.
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