• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.119-129
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• 2022

In this paper, we predict the earthquake magnitudes which were recently occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, using statistical methods based on historical data. For this purpose, we use the five-year block maximum data of 1392~1771 period, which has a relatively high annual density, among the historical earthquake magnitude data of the Chosun Dynasty. Then, we present the prediction and analysis of earthquake magnitudes for the return level over return period in the Chosun Dynasty using the extreme value theory based on the distribution of generalized extreme values (GEV). We use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments estimation for parameters of GEV distribution. In particular, this study also demonstrates via the goodness-of-fit tests that the GEV distribution can be an appropriate analytical model for these historical earthquake magnitude data.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.11-15
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• 2018

A development plan for seismic capacity verification procedures of nuclear components based on the elastic-plastic strain (EPS) features is explained in this paper. The EPS methodology is more realistic to assess seismic responses of components to extreme seismic events beyond the safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) than current practices with the criteria of stress limits. The EPS based approach to analyze the seismic capacity of components can reduce over-conservatism in the current stress-based criteria and can incorporate the seismic responses of components deformed in plastic behavior by the motion of extreme earthquake.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.91-105
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• 2015

In this paper we investigated the phenomenon of extreme run-up at Babi Island in Indonesia caused by the 1992 Flores earthquake (Mw = 7.8) using a series of three-dimensional numerical modeling experiments. Simulations were carried out to investigate how much the presence/absence of the coast of Flores affects the generation of the extreme inundation at Babi Island through the reflection process of tsunami waves.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.62-66
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• 2017

The interest on the potential earthquake magnitude and the request on the earthquake-resistant design examination for coastal structures are emerged because of the recently occurred magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Gyeoung-Ju, Korea. In this study, the magnitude and its confidence intervals with the return periods are estimated using the KMA earthquake magnitude data (over 3.5 and 4.0 in magnitude) by the non-parametric extreme value analysis. In case of using the "over 4.0" data set, the estimated magnitudes on the 50- and 100-years return periods are 5.81 and 5.94, respectively. Their 90% confidence intervals are estimated to be 5.52-6.11, 5.62-6.29, respectively. Even though the estimated magnitudes have limitations not considering the spatial distribution, it can be used to check the stability of the diverse coastal structures in the perspective of the life design because the potential magnitude and its confidence intervals in Korea are estimated based on the available 38-years data by the extreme value analysis.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.170-181
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• 2018

Because of the design and construction requirements, the nuclear structures need to maintain the structural integrity under both design state and extreme earthquake shaking. The base-isolation technology can significantly reduce the damages of structures under extreme earthquake events, and effectively protect the safeties of structures and internal equipment. This study proposes a base-isolation design for the AP1000 nuclear shield building on considering the performance requirements of the seismic isolation systems and devices of shield building. The seismic responses of isolated and nonisolated shield buildings subjected to design basis earthquake (DBE) shaking and beyond-design basis earthquake (BDBE) shaking are analyzed, and three different strategies for controlling the displacements subjected to BDBE shaking are performed. By comparing with nonisolated shield buildings, the floor acceleration spectra of isolated shield buildings, relative displacement, and base shear force are significantly reduced in high-frequency region. The results demonstrate that the base-isolation technology is an effective approach to maintain the structural integrity which subjected to both DBE and BDBE shaking. A displacement control design for isolation layers subjected to BDBE shaking, which adopts fluid dampers for controlling the horizontal displacement of isolation layer is developed. The effectiveness of this simple method is verified through numerical analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.107-114
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• 2020

Extreme value distributions have often been used for the analysis (e.g., prediction of return level) of data which are observed from natural disaster. By the extreme value theory, the block maxima asymptotically follow the generalized extreme value distribution as sample size increases; however, this may not hold in a small sample case. For solving this problem, this paper proposes the use of a log-logistic (LLG) distribution whose validity is evaluated through goodness-of-fit test and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated with data from annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of China. Here, we present the predicted return level and confidence interval according to each return period using LLG distribution.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.217-220
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• 2024

Predicting earthquake occurrences accurately is challenging, and preparing all buildings with seismic design for such random events is a difficult task. Analyzing building features to predict potential damage and reinforcing vulnerabilities based on this analysis can minimize damages even in buildings without seismic design. Therefore, research analyzing the efficiency of building damage prediction models is essential. In this paper, we compare the accuracy of earthquake damage prediction models using machine learning classification algorithms, including Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and CatBoost, utilizing data from buildings damaged during the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.395-418
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• 2024

The epicentral region of earthquakes is typically where liquefaction-related damage takes place. To determine the maximum distance, such as maximum epicentral distance (R_e), maximum fault distance (R_f), or maximum hypocentral distance (R_h), at which an earthquake can inflict damage, given its magnitude, this study, using a recently updated global liquefaction database, multiple ML models are built to predict the limiting distances (R_e, R_f, or R_h) required for an earthquake of a given magnitude to cause damage. Four machine learning models LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory), CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), and XGB (Extreme Gradient Boosting) are developed using the Python programming language. All four proposed ML models performed better than empirical models for limiting distance assessment. Among these models, the XGB model outperformed all the models. In order to determine how well the suggested models can predict limiting distances, a number of statistical parameters have been studied. To compare the accuracy of the proposed models, rank analysis, error matrix, and Taylor diagram have been developed. The ML models proposed in this paper are more robust than other current models and may be used to assess the minimal energy of a liquefaction disaster caused by an earthquake or to estimate the maximum distance of a liquefied site provided an earthquake in rapid disaster mapping.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.433-439
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• 2020

Tunnels are one of the most important constructions in civil engineering. The damage to these structures caused enormous costs. Therefore, the safe and economic design of these structures has long been considered. However, both applied loads on the tunnels as well as the resistance of the structural members are naturally uncertain parameters, hence, the design of these structures requires considering the probabilistic approaches. This study aims to determine the load and resistant factors of lining tunnels concerning the earthquake extreme events limit state function. For this purpose, tunnels that have been designed according to the previous design codes (AASHTO Tunnel LRFD 2017) and using reliability analysis, the optimum reliability of these structures for different loading scenarios is determined. In this paper, the tunnel is considered circular. Finally, the proper load and resistance factors are calculated corresponding to the obtained target reliability. Based on the performed calibration earthquake extreme events limit state function, the result of this study can be recommended to AASHTO Tunnel LRFD 2017.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.185-198
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• 2003

The concept of performance based seismic design has been gradually accepted by the earthquake engineering profession recently, in which the cost-effectiveness criterion is one of the most important principles and more attention is paid to the structural performance at the inelastic stage. Since there are many uncertainties in seismic design, reliability analysis is a major task in performance based seismic design. However, structural reliability analysis may be very costly and time consuming because the limit state function is usually a highly nonlinear implicit function with respect to the basic design variables, especially for the complex large-scale structures for dynamic and nonlinear analysis. Understanding statistical properties of the structural inelastic deformation, which is the aim of the present paper, is helpful to develop an efficient approximate approach of reliability analysis. The present paper studies the statistical properties of the maximum elastoplastic story drift of steel frames subjected to earthquake load. The randomness of earthquake load, dead load, live load, steel elastic modulus, yield strength and structural member dimensions are considered. Possible probability distributions for the maximum story are evaluated using K-S test. The results show that the choice of the probability distribution for the maximum elastoplastic story drift of steel frames is related to the mean value of the maximum elastoplastic story drift. When the mean drift is small (less than 0.3%), an extreme value type I distribution is the best choice. However, for large drifts (more than 0.35%), an extreme value type II distribution is best.