• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.161-169
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• 2016

In this research, we propose efficient demand forecasting scheme for intermittent demand. For this purpose, we first extensively analyze the drawbacks of the existing forecasting methods such as Croston method and Syntetos-Boylan approximation, then using these findings we propose the new demand forecasting method. Our goal is to develop forecasting method robust across many situations, not necessarily optimal for a limited number of specific situations. For this end, we adopt combining forecasting method that utilizes unbiased forecasting methods such as simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average. Various simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method performed better than the existing forecasting methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.9-13
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• 2004

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.627-641
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• 2021

An asymmetric least squares estimation method has been employed to estimate linear models for percentile regression. An asymmetric maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) has been developed for the estimation of Poisson percentile linear models. In this study, we propose generalized nonlinear percentile regression using the AMLE, and the use of the parametric bootstrap method to obtain confidence intervals for the estimates of parameters of interest and smoothing functions of estimates. We consider three conditional distributions of response variables given covariates such as normal, exponential, and Poisson for three mean functions with one linear and two nonlinear models in the simulation studies. The proposed method provides reasonable estimates and confidence interval estimates of parameters, and comparable Monte Carlo asymptotic performance along with the sample size and quantiles. We illustrate applications of the proposed method using real-life data from chemical and radiation epidemiological studies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.143-154
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• 2024

This paper considers a combined model of exponential smoothing (ETS) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models that are commonly used to forecast time series data. The combined model is constructed through an innovational state space model based on the level variable instead of the differenced variable, and the identifiability of the model is investigated. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters and suggest the model selection steps. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated by two real time series data. We consider the three competing models; ETS, ARIMA and the trigonometric Box-Cox autoregressive and moving average trend seasonal (TBATS) models, and compare and evaluate their root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors for accuracy. The results show that the combined model outperforms the competing models.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-94
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• 2024

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study underscores the critical nature of determining the reference point for comparison. Firstly, in comparison to the revenue in the same quarter before the onset of the pandemic, a significant decrease in revenue was observed across most categories during the pandemic periods. Secondly, when compared to the counterfactual revenue in the same period, extrapolated by an exponential smoothing forecasting, the overall revenue decrease during the periods was less pronounced, except in a few categories. Interestingly, certain categories appeared to witness marginal increases in sales after the pandemic. The paper discusses some policy implications of these findings.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.612-620
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• 2013

In this study, time series analysis was tried, which is widely applied to demand forecast of diverse fields such as finance, economy, trade, and so on, different from previous regression analysis. Future marine traffic volume was forecasted on the basis of data of the number of ships entering Incheon port from January 1996 to June 2013, through courses of stationarity verification, model identification, coefficient estimation, and diagnostic checking. As a result of prediction January 2014 to December 2015, February has less traffic volume than other months, but January has more traffic volume than other months. Also, it was found out that Incheon port was more proper to ARIMA model than exponential smoothing method and there was a difference of monthly traffic volume according to seasons. The study has a meaning in that future traffic volume was forecasted per month with time series model. Also, it is judged that forecast of future marine traffic volume through time series model will be the more suitable model than prediction of marine traffic volume with previous regression analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.84 no.2
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• pp.121-130
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• 1995

Forecasting accuracy is examined in the context of Michigan travel demand. Eight different annual models are used to forecast up to two years ahead, and nine different quarterly models up to four quarters. In the evaluation of annual models' performance, multiple regression performed better than the other methods in both the one year and two year forecasts. For quarterly models, Winters exponential smoothing and the Box-Jenkins method performed better than naive 1 s in the first quarter ahead, but these methods in the second, third, and fourth quarters ahead performed worse than naive 1 s. The sophisticated models did not outperform simpler models in producing quarterly forecasts. The best model, multiple regression, performed slightly better when fitted to quarterly rather than annual data: however, it is not possible to strongly recommend quarterly over annual models since the improvement in performance was slight in the case of multiple regression and inconsistent across the other models. As one would expect, accuracy declines as the forecasting time horizon is lengthened in the case of annual models, but the accuracy of quarterly models did not confirm this result.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.129-137
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• 2016

In the present study we verified performance of feed-forward control algorithm using short term prediction of ship motion information by taking advantage of developed numerical simulation model of FPSO motion. Up until now, various studies have been conducted about thrust control and allocation for dynamic positioning systems maintaining positions of ships or marine structures in diverse sea environmental conditions. In the existing studies, however, the dynamic positioning systems consist of only feedback control gains using a motion of vessel derived from environmental loads such as current, wind and wave. This study addresses dynamic positioning systems which have feedforward control gain derived from forecasted value of a motion of vessel occurred by current, wind and wave force. In this study, the future motion of vessel is forecasted via Brown's Exponential Smoothing after calculating the vessel motion via a selected mathematical model, and the control force for maintaining the position and heading angle of a vessel is decided by the feedback controller and the feedforward controller using PID theory and forecasted vessel motion respectively. For the allocation of thrusts, the Lagrange Multiplier Method is exploited. By constructing a simulation code for a dynamic positioning system of FPSO, the performance of feedforward control system which has feedback controller and feedforward controller was assessed. According to the result of this study, in case of using feedforward control system, it shows smaller maximum thrust power than using conventional feedback control system.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2013

In applying Markowitz's portfolio selection model to the stock market, we developed a comprehensive investment decision-making framework including key inputs for portfolio theory (i.e., individual stocks' expected rate of return and covariance) and minimum required expected return. For estimating the key inputs of our decision-making framework, we utilized an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which places more emphasis on recent data than the conventional simple moving average (SMA). We empirically analyzed the investment results of the decision-making framework with the same 15 stocks in Samsung Group Funds found in the Korean stock market between 2007 and 2011. This five-year investment horizon is marked by global financial crises including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European sovereign-debt crisis. We measure portfolio performance in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio. Results are compared with the following benchmarks : 1) KOSPI, 2) Samsung Group Funds, 3) Talmudic portfolio based on the na$\ddot{i}$ve 1/N rule, and 4) Markowitz's model with SMA. We performed sensitivity analyses on all the input parameters that are necessary for designing an investment decision-making framework : smoothing constant for EWMA, minimum required expected return for the portfolio, and portfolio rebalancing period. In conclusion, appropriate use of the comprehensive investment decision-making framework based on the Markowitz's model integrated with EWMA proves to achieve outstanding performance compared to the benchmarks.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.39C no.8
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• pp.708-715
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• 2014

In this paper, we suggest a method of realtime confidence interval estimation to detect abnormal states of sensor data. For realtime confidence interval estimation, the mean square errors of the exponential smoothing method and moving average method, two of the time series analysis method, where compared, and the moving average method with less errors was applied. When the sensor data passes the bounds of the confidence interval estimation, the administrator is notified through alarming. As the suggested method is for realtime anomaly detection in a ship, an Android terminal was adopted for better communication between the wireless sensor network and users. For safe navigation, an administrator can make decisions promptly and accurately upon emergency situation in a ship by referring to the anomaly detection information through realtime confidence interval estimation.