• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.228-234
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• 2021

Real estate market participants need to have a sense of predicting real estate prices in decision-making. Commonly used methodologies, such as regression analysis, ARIMA, and VAR, have limitations in predicting the value of an asset, which fluctuates due to unknown variables. Therefore, to mitigate the limitations, an artificial neural was is used to predict the price trend of apartments in Seoul, the hottest real estate market in South Korea. For artificial neural network learning, the learning model is designed with 12 variables, which are divided into macro and micro factors. The study was conducted in three ways: (Ed note: What is the difference between case 1 and 2? Is case 1 micro factors?)CASE1 with macro factors, CASE2 with macro factors, and CASE3 with the combination of both factors. As a result, CASE1 and CASE2 show 87.5% predictive accuracy during the two-year experiment, and CASE3 shows 95.8%. This study defines various factors affecting apartment prices in macro and microscopic terms. The study also proposes an artificial network technique in predicting the price trend of apartments and analyzes its effectiveness. Therefore, it is expected that the recently developed learning technique can be applied to the real estate industry, enabling more efficient decision-making by market participants.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.41-59
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• 2021

This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.45-52
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• 2018

Currently, apartments have become an important research subject for the overall area of politics, economics, and culture as well as urban architectural study. However, there are few analyses of the research trends related to the current interest in the apartment research and prediction of the future changes of an apartment in politics and industry. In this study, the research information related to the apartment has classified, and the changes in the research trends have analyzed. Based on the classified data, the first thesis and dissertation related to the apartment and changes of academic notation have discovered. In addition, future interests and future research directions through Frequency of Appearance, Degree Centrality Analysis, and Betweenness Centrality Analysis of author keywords were predicted. As a result of the analysis, 'Space,' 'Residential Mobility' and 'Apartment Complex' studies were found to be important research topics throughout the entire period. 'Han Gang Apartment,' 'Small Size Apartment,' 'Civic Apartments,' 'Jamsil,' and 'Child' were newly interested topics until 70's era. '(Super) High-rise Apartment,' 'Perception,' 'Jugong Apartment,' 'Housing Environment,' 'Housewife,' 'Apartment Layout,' and 'Busan' were newly interested topics during the 80's and 90's era. 'Apartment Price,' 'Energy,' 'Remodeling,' 'Noise,' 'Resident Satisfaction,' 'Community,' and 'Apartment Lotting-out' were newly interested topics after the year 2000. New concerns for last decade are found to be 'Super High-rise Apartment', 'Remodeling', 'Indoor'(2007), 'Apartment Reconstruction Project', 'Brand', 'AHP', 'Housing Environment'(2008), 'Ventilation'(2009), 'Apartment Lotting-out'(2010), 'Economic Assessment'(2011), 'Cost'(2012), 'Green Building', 'Apartment Sales', 'Law', 'Society'(2013), 'Floor Impact Noise', 'Seoul'(2014), 'Noise'(2015), 'Hedonic Model'(2016). In addition, following research topics are expected to be active in the future: In maturity stage of the research development is going to be 'Apartment Price', 'Space', 'Management of Apartment Housing'; the hedonic model, which is research growth and development stage, is going to be '(Floor Impact) Noise', 'Community', 'Energy.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.86-94
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• 2014

Since the late 1990s, mixed-use apartment, armed with high qualities and large scales with a high ratio of TFA(Total Floor Area) have been continuously provided accommodating exclusive community facilities along with high-tech securities, not to mention excellent skyline view. However, especially in mid-small cities, there have been only a few supplies. As a result, none of the mixed-use housing provided by high-end brands has ever been built in non-metropolitan area. But constructors couldn't plan the projects which aims to build the mixed-use apartment in local city, because they couldn't get the basic data or advanced research for feasibility analysis. Therefore, to suggest the useful price for mixed-use apartment supply project of local city, the PSM(Price Sensitivity Method) widely used for determining the price preferences as a market research tools has been applied. As analysis results, the estimated price of mixed-use apartment is 10.8% higher than general apartment, and mixed-use apartment has lower price sensitivity than general apartment. As price determinants, the age, education level and family size influence on UTP in significant level. It is expected that these research findings can be applied for establishing the solid marketing strategy of mixed-use apartment development project in local city.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.12 no.8
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• pp.47-53
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• 2021

With increasing interest in the 4th industrial revolution, data-driven scientific methodologies have developed. However, there are limitations of data collection in the real estate field of research. In addition, as the public becomes more knowledgeable about the real estate market, the qualitative sentiment comes to play a bigger role in the real estate market. Therefore, we propose a method to collect quantitative data that reflects sentiment using text mining and k-means algorithms, rather than the existing source data, and to predict the direction of housing index through artificial neural network learning based on the collected data. Data from 2012 to 2019 is set as the training period and 2020 as the prediction period. It is expected that this study will contribute to the utilization of scientific methods such as artificial neural networks rather than the use of the classical methodology for real estate market participants in their decision making process.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.455-458
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• 2007

With the government plan to introduce a post-sale system to the Korean real estate market quickly becoming a reality, reformation of the supervision policy under the current pre-sale system is expected. The current supervision policy, designed to enhance the quality of houses and to prevent improper construction, was reinforced through the 'residential construction promotion act' and has been further revised as the 'residential law'. At this current time, the introduction of a post-sale system is expected to affect all aspects of residential construction, from the planning stages to overall conditions regarding the actual construction. Therefore, this research will illustrate several changes in the supervision policy that are expected to arise from the introduction of the post-sale system, focusing on areas of the policy that are presumed to be the most affected. The research will highlight problems under the current system, analyze any domestic supervision restrictions that have been regulated for post-sales that are currently effective, and suggestion methods of improvement in construction supervision system through SWOT analysis.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2009

As a response to the recent increase in the Interest in environment friendly interior finishing materials, the purpose of this study is to compare the awareness of environment friendly interior finishing materials between interior designers and housewives, as representatives of two different consumer groups, and to examine how the preferences between them differ. The study participant group for this research consisted of 80 interior designers working in Gwangju, and 166 housewives who were residents of a number of apartments in Gwangju. Self administered questionnaires were provided to the participants and were then collected. Unpaired t-tests and $x^2$ tests were used to compare the prevalence of epidemiological factors and the variables that revealthe awareness and the preference between the two groups. While it was expected that both groups would source information using the internet, the housewives group showed a tendency to also seek advice from others in the selection of environment friendly interior finishing materials. Interior-designers considered the high price and the lack of diverse products as the most serious problems involved in selecting environment friendly interior finishing materials. Interior-designers chose design, color and long-term use, and the method of maintenance as standards by which to choose interior materials in general, while the housewives considered 'environment friendly' as the most important standard. Both groups however favored environment friendly materials. There was no difference between the two groups in terms of their belief in the need to trust a well known brand name and in the importance of a Green-label placed on interior finishing materials such as wallpaper, paint and laminate flooring.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.96-106
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• 2018

The government adopted activation policy of real estate to overcome low economic growth rate. Real estate activation plan adopted by the government raised credit limit by lowering the regulation, and reduced real estate investment cost by reducing the base rate. Also, delayed transfer tax on multi-house owner to activate real estate investment and resolved purchase right resale. Relief of real estate regulate caused increase of housing sales and price increase, and the real estate market changed to overheating aspect such as premium upon completion of lot sale in a short time. Such market atmosphere greatly increased household debs as owners own houses based on 'financial debt' instead of their income. Since 2017, real estate policy was reinforced to reduce household debts and lending rate was raised due to rise of base rate, accordingly, burden of household debt is expected to increase. This research suggested a plan for the Financial Supervisory Service to efficiently manage the financial world by analyzing the cause and problem of household debs.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.457-465
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• 2016

Around the world, a lot of people are migrating to the urban areas, and new cities are continuously being constructed. Currently about 54 percent of the world's population live in the urban areas, and by 2050, it is expected to increase to 66 percent; thus, managing the urban areas is one of the most important challenges of sustainable development in the 21st century. The key to successful urban management is to preserve the urban green spaces, which provide aesthetic, psychological and health benefits to the urban citizens. However, the benefits of the urban green spaces are not fully appreciated within the societies due to the difficulty of economic valuation of the urban green spaces. This study examined whether the view of the Songdo Central Park has a positive influence on the prices of the surrounding apartments, using the hedonic pricing method. The results showed that a positive relation exists between the view of the Songdo Central Park and the price of apartment. The price of an apartment with the view of the Songdo Central Park was 5 percent higher than that of an apartment without the view. In addition, it was estimated that the proximity to the Songdo Central Park has an influence on the housing price as well.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.25-34
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• 2012

It has been five years since the Post-Construction Sale System of Housing was introduced. The purpose of this study is to identify objectives and effects of the Post-Construction Sale System of Housing and analyze change of profitability at different sales time from a supplier's point of view. Apartment buildings construction projects performed in Seoul are used for the case study. The present value of sales revenues, sensitivity and the present value of expected sales prices are analyzed. According to the findings, first, profits made from a Pre-construction sales system was 5.1%~6.2% higher than those from a Post-construction sales system. Among four plans of a Pre-construction sales system (A, B, C and D plan), sales revenue from the A plan, which takes a deposit at the time of starting construction, was the greatest. Second, increase of the rate of discount and decrease of sales revenues are in direct proportion. The bigger rate of discount leads actual reduction of sales revenues. Third, for the present value of sales revenues reflecting change in basic model construction cost, a Pre-construction sales system showed a little higher than that of a Post-construction sales system by approximately 2%. It should be known that this study suggests profitability of Pre-and Post-construction sales system by clearly measuring them in the supplier's point of view and calculates sales revenues, considering change of a sale price following change of sales time.