• Title/Summary/Keyword: Exchange Rate Market

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A Study on Factors Determining the M&A and Greenfield of Korean Firms in China (한국기업의 대(對)중국 M&A 및 신설투자에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Baek Ryul
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.247-273
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzes the impacts on the M&A and greenfield of macroeconomic variables of home and host countries, after identifying current status and characteristics of the M&A and greenfield related to the entering way of Korean firms in China. Main empirical results are summarize as follows. First, as for foreign exchange variable, the decreased value of Korea won shows the negative correlations with both of the greenfield and M&A. Second, the real interest rate of Korea to measure the cost of capital is not significant statistically. Third, while the host country's stock market index, Shanghai Comprehensive Index, shows the expected negative correlations with the investment in the case of small & medium firm and light industry, it shows the positive correlations which is not consistent with general expectation in the case of large firm and heavy industry. Fourth, the openness of host country shows the positive correlations with both of the greenfield and M&A. Finally, in regard to the M&A, China's GDP to measure the market size of host country is not significant statistically while it shows the strong positive relationship with the greenfield investment.

WHICH INFORMATION MOVES PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM DAYS WITH DIVIDEND AND EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND INSIDER TRADING

  • Kim, Chan-Wung;Lee, Jae-Ha
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.233-265
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    • 1996
  • We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

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A Study on Delay Causes and Tasks of Korean Performing Arts' Overseas Expansion (공연예술의 해외시장진출 지체요인 및 향후과제)

  • Kim, Sun-Young;Kwon, Byung-Woong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.215-225
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    • 2016
  • This study seeks to find an alternative to the requirement for proving the competitiveness of Korean performing arts before entering into the overseas market by deriving the factors causing entry into the market to be delayed based on an analysis of the current status. Between 2007 to 2014, the overseas revenues from Korean performing arts increased by 16.4% compared to the total amount of financial support, as the number of free performances given overseas and the average guaranteed number of performances overseas are both at a standstill. Also, the size of the audience increased by a mere 3.3 times, which is an even lower growth rate than that for the number of performances, 3.8 times, during the same period. Furthermore, the audience size per unit is suffering from long-term stagnation. The main causes are as follows: 1) applying one-dimensional methods to performing arts exchanges and expanding the overseas market, 2) the existing confused concepts between profit and non-profit contents, 3) the weaknesses of the market expansion strategy, because of programming practices focusing on providers, such as presenters and producers, rather than consumers. As a result, the necessary basic research, including consumer surveys, has not been done yet. In order to understand the implications of this analysis and solve the problem of the delayed overseas expansion of Korean performing arts, the Korean wave industry was examined as a representative example. Consumer surveys for the performing arts, possibly benchmarked to the "Korean Wave Consumer Survey Index (KWCSI)", are expected to be done in the near future. In addition, through the development of a specific consumer index of the performing arts, customized marketing strategies by continent and country need to be established. This empirical study of the overseas expansion of performing arts can be utilized as a bridge between the academic and real worlds. This work may also enable a variety of strategies to be established for the overseas expansion of the performing arts.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Industrial Policy as a Development Strategy: Cuba' s Experience and Policy Implications (개발전략으로서 산업정책: 쿠바의 경험과 정책적 시사점)

  • Cin, Beom Cheol
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.3-27
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    • 2018
  • This paper analyzes Cuba's market-oriented reforms to alleviate essential problems with socialist countries such as soft budget constraints and incentive problems. It also discuss about effectiveness of industrial policy as a development strategy. The soft budget constraints and incentive problems resulted in the collapse of Soviet bloc and COMECON in early 1990s. After the collapse, Cuban economy suffered a steep dive, and national income tumbling down rapidly. Cuban faced serious shortages of food, gasoline, and other basic necessities of life. To halt and partially reverse economic downturn and dire austerity in the 1990's, the Cuban government made some partial reforms to the inherited Soviet system of cental planningand faced severe shortage in food, energy, and daily necessities. In response to the economic crisis. Cuba introduced economic reforms and implemented industrial policy as a development strategy as long as Cuba maintained a strong socialist country. Cuban government established the economic free zone law and attempted to induce foreign direct investment by implementing export-led industrial policy. Fiedel Castro approved the Law No. 165 "Free Zones and Industrial Parks", in 1996. However, Cuba's ESZ strategy seems to have failed because of the U.S. sanctions, but also because of Cuba's own policies, which do not allow foreign investors to hire workers directly and impose a high implicit tax on wages. By limiting advanced techniques of personnel and organization management, indirect employment can result in lowering work efforts and productivity of workers, and aggravating production efficiency in the ESZs. Another reason to fail comes from the double wage structure due to the double monetary-exchange rate system. Most of the high non-wage costs result from the double exchange rate system. Due to Cuba's imbalanced industry and production structures, concentrated labor force, and urbanization and centralization of agriculture production, the industrial transformation development model suggested by Lewis has not been successful unlike other Asian agriculture-led development model. Cuba has to overcome many difficulties in implementing industrial policy as a development strategy.

A Correlation Analysis between International Oil Price Fluctuations and Overseas Construction Order Volumes using Statistical Data (통계 데이터를 활용한 국제 유가와 해외건설 수주액의 상관성 분석)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R2), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

The Analysis of Factors which Affect Business Survey Index Using Regression Trees (회귀나무를 이용한 기업경기실사지수의 영향요인 분석)

  • Chang, Young-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2010
  • Business entrepreneurs reflect their views of domestic and foreign economic activities on their operation for the growth of their business. The decision, forecasting, and planning based on their economic sentiment affect business operation such as production, investment, and hiring and consequently affect condition of national economy. Business survey index(BSI) is compiled to get the information of business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment for the analysis of business condition. BSI has been used as an important variable in the short-term forecasting models for business cycle analysis, especially during the the period of extreme business fluctuations. Recent financial crisis has arised extreme business fluctuations similar to those caused by currency crisis at the end of 1997, and brought back the importance of BSI as a variable for the economic forecasting. In this paper, the meaning of BSI as an economic sentiment index is reviewed and a GUIDE regression tree is constructed to find out the factors which affect on BSI. The result shows that the variables related to the stability of financial market such as kospi index(Korea composite stock price index) and exchange rate as well as manufacturing operation ratio and consumer goods sales are main factors which affect business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment.

A Study on Price Asymmetries in Local Petroleum Markets (석유제품의 가격 비대칭성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.833-854
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    • 2007
  • Output prices tend to respond faster to input price increases than to decreases. The 'rockets and feathers' hypothesis of asymmetric price behavior in petroleum market is tested by a full adjustment error correction model. Using monthly data for the period January 1977 to June 2006, evidence is found that there is a significant degree of asymmetry in the adjustment of wholesale prices to increases and to decreases in crude oil price. A similar hypothesis in regard to the exchange rate is also rejected by the data. Using weekly data over the period examined, evidence of asymmetry for gasoline, diesel and heating oil is also found in the transmission of price changes from wholesale to retail: retail prices increase more quickly in response to the wholesale price increases than to wholesale price decreases.

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Effect of Containing Promoter on SCR Catalysts (SCR 촉매에 포함된 조촉매 영향)

  • Seo, Choong-Kil
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.474-481
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    • 2018
  • The policy-making and technological development of eco-friendly automobiles designed to increase their supply is ongoing, but the internal combustion engine still accounts for approximately 95% of automobiles in use. To meet the stricter emission regulations of internal combustion engines based on fossil fuels, the proportion of after-treatments for vehicles and (ocean going) vessels is increasing continuously. As diesel engines have high power and good fuel economy in addition to less CO2 emissions, their market share is increasing not only in commercial vehicles, but also in passenger cars. Because of the characteristics of the diesel combustion, however, NOx is generated in localized high-temperature combustion regions, and particulates are formed in the zones of diffusion combustion. LNT and urea-SCR catalysts have been developed for the after-treatment of exhaust gas to reduce NOx in diesel vehicles. This study examined the effect of a containing promoter on SCR catalysts to cope with the severe exhaust gas regulation. The de-NOx performance of the Mn-SCR catalyst was the best, and the de-NOx performance was improved as the ion exchange rate between Mn ion and Zeolyst was good and the activation energy was low. The de-NOx performance of the 7Cu-15Ba/78Zeoyst catalyst was 32% at $200^{\circ}C$ and 30% at $500^{\circ}C$, and showed the highest performance. The NOx storage material of BaO loaded as a promoter was well dispersed in the Cu-SCR catalyst and the additional de-NOx performance of BaO was affected by the reduction reaction of the Cu-SCR catalyst. Among the three catalysts, the 7Cu-15Ba/Zeolyst SCR catalyst was resistant to thermal degradation. The same type of CuO due to thermal degradation migrates and agglomerates because BaO reduces the agglomeration of the main catalyst CuO particles.

An Empirical Study on Evaluation Factors of Cabin Service Quality of Airlines (항공사 객실서비스의 품질 평가요인에 관한 실증 연구 - MIAT 몽골항공사를 중심으로 -)

  • Hyun, Kil-Nam;Batbold, Senderi;Byun, Ki-Hyo;Hurr, Hee-Young
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.261-274
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    • 2006
  • Airline business operates in the 21st century within fast changing market environment and fierce competition. Management of airline companies has faced the need for vast adaptation to new trends in the growth of world economy that are cardinal changes in marketing environment due to quick development of Internet and IT, transport price competition and, as a consequence, low profit margin, diversified customer wants and needs, lack of investment needed for new aircraft equipped with the latest high tech innovations, unpredictable oil price changes, and exchange rate fluctuations. This study is aimed to evaluate the quality performance of cabin service, to analyse, further, the issues that appeared to be the most significant among customers' answers to questionnaire, to explore the relationships between these issues and customer satisfaction, to highlight the essential questions to address, and to provide some practical suggestions. The five dimensions (such as tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy) were adopted to examine the relationship between the service quality and customer satisfaction of Mongolian and non-Mongolian passengers travelling by the MIAT. According to findings of analysis made with use of the SERVPERF model, it can be concluded that Mongolian travellers' satisfaction was effected by 'Tangible' and 'Responsiveness' dimensions of service quality, whereas the 'Empathy' dimension has more impact on the satisfaction of non-Mongolian.

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