• 산경연구논집
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2024

Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.477-480
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• 2015

Construction projects are high-risk activities. When undertaking such projects in an international setting, it can be complicated by foreign exchange (FOREX) fluctuation risk. This affects the construction business performance in various ways, namely its progress due to delays, which in turn create further problems, specifically cost overruns as a result of price increase in raw materials, disputes, arbitration, litigation and even, total abandonment. Thus, the effective management of FOREX fluctuations is crucial. Previous studies have focused on the need for contract safeguards, adequate insurance, careful planning and management, as well as foreign exchange futures hedging to address some of the risks triggered by FOREX fluctuations. An analysis of FOREX fluctuations in the international construction industry revealed that more often it was focused on project-specific issues. Currently, there is a relative lack of awareness on Organizational Capabilities (OC), the abilities that owned by the organization, which is essential in managing the impact of FOREX fluctuations. Where research has focused on OC, these are viewed in isolation. Therefore, this study attempts to close the gap by proposing a framework on managing the impact of FOREX fluctuations in the international construction industry, employing the OC perspective.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.17-22
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• 2015

This paper examines the effect of impulsiveness of euro on Indian stock market. In order to examine the problem, we select rupee-euro exchange rates and S&P CNX NIFTY and BSE30 SENSEX to represent stock price. We select euro as it considered as second most widely used currency at the international level after dollar. The data are collected a daily basis over a period of 3-Apr-2007 to 30-Mar-2012. The statistical and time series properties of each and every variable have examined using the conventional unit root such as ADF and PP test. Adopting a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, the study suggests a negative relationship between exchange rate and stock prices in India. Even though India is a major trade partner of European Union, the study couldn't find any significant statistical effect of fluctuations in Euro-rupee exchange rates on stock prices. The study also reveals that shocks to exchange rate have symmetric effect on stock prices and exchange rate fluctuations have permanent effects on stock price volatility in India.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.19-23
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• 2017

It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries' economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.655-660
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• 2009

최근의 글로벌경제위기 상황에서 국내 금융외환시장이 높은 환율변동을 보이며 불안한 모습을 보이고 있다. 따라서 그 어느 때보다 금리, 환율 등 가격변수들의 움직임 및 이들 간의 관계에 대한 관심이 높다. 본 연구에서는 국내시장을 중심으로 환율, 금리의 추이 및 인과관계에 대하여 연구하였다. 글로벌경제위기 상황에서 원/달러환율, 콜금리의 움직임에서 나타나는 주요 특징을 알아보고, 교차상관분석 및 그랜저 인과관계검정 등을 이용하여 두 변수간의 상호연관관계에 대하여 선도/지연 관계를 중심으로 분석하였다.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.309-330
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• 2009

본 연구는 실질환율변동이 경기변동에 미치는 효과를 한국과 일본에 대하여 비교분석하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 기존의 실증분석에 의하면 신흥경제국의 경우 실질환율의 상승이 경기수축효과를 가져올 수 있는 반면 선진국의 경우 경기확장효과를 가질 수 있다는 연구결과가 많다. 한국은 신흥경제국의 사례로, 일본은 선진국의 사례로 각각 선택하여 기존의 연구결과와 비교하고자 한다. 구조VAR(S-VAR)모형을 사용하여 실질금리, 실질성장률, 실질환율, 국제유가, 인플레이션율 등 5개변수의 1980년 1/4분기부터 2006년 4/4분기까지의 분기데이터에 대해 충격반응함수와 분산분해를 통해 실질환율변동의 경기변동효과를 분석하고 있다. 본 연구는 한국의 경우 실질환율의 상승이 경기수축적인 반면 일본의 경우는 반대로 경기팽창적이라는 기존의 연구결과를 다시 확인하고 있다.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2024

Purpose: In the era of global economic integration, China's doors of openness have widened, leading to increasingly frequent economic and trade exchanges between countries. Exchange rates, as a crucial economic lever for regulating foreign markets, play a vital role in the balanced development of a nation's international trade. Therefore, the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign trade has garnered widespread attention. Research design, data and methodology: This study utilizes import and export trade data between China and five ASEAN countries from 1998 to 2019. It employs regression analysis to examine the specific impact of the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi on China's import and export trade with these ASEAN nations. Results: The empirical analysis yields the following conclusions: Firstly, the real effective exchange rate of the Renminbi exhibits a long-term stable relationship with China's import and export trade with the five ASEAN countries. Renminbi appreciation contributes to an increase in export trade volume but is detrimental to import trade. While this conclusion may deviate from classical trade theories, it aligns with the practical realities of China's foreign trade. Secondly, the coefficients before Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all display positive values, indicating that the growth of total economic demand has a stimulating effect on China's import and export trade.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.111-125
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• 1990

본고(本稿)는 원화환율(貨換率)의 적정운용(適正運用)을 모색해 보았다. 이를 위해 먼저 Lipschitz(1980)의 방식을 따라 원화(貨)의 실질실효환율(實質實效換率)을 안정시킬 수 있는 적정통화(適正通貨)"바스켓"을 구성해 보았다. 80년대 중반 이후 이를 적용했을 경우 실제의 경우보다 원화(貨)의 실질실효환율(實質實效換率)이 훨씬 안정될 수 있었음이 입증되었다. 또한 특정시점에서 구한 적정가중치(適正加重値)를 계속해서 적용하는 것보다 주요환율(主要換率)과 상대물가간(相對物價間)의 관계변화(關係變化)에 따라 가중치(加重値)를 수정해 나가는 것이 바람직하다는 점도 지적되었다. 이와 같은 적정통화(適正通貨)"바스켓"과 그에 기초한 "바스켓"환율(換率)은 우리의 경상수지(經常收支)나 생산성(生産性) 변화추이(變化推移)와 함께 시장평균환율제도하(市場平均換率制度下)에서 적절한 환율운용(換率運用)을 위한 중장기적(中長期的) 지표(指標)의 하나가 될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 2부
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• pp.103-108
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to analyze of the risk factors for oversea plants construction projects. For this study, risk factors data from related literature review, research organization and construction company was researched and classified under each EPC phases. In addition, a questionnaire survey by plant experts was conducted for analysis of risk weight and costs and time impact on each EPC phases. The results of this study are as follows: First, a detail design errors(engineering phase), a equipment procurement plan(procurement phase), and exchange rate fluctuations(construction phase) were analyzed the highest weight factors. Second, a financing plan(engineering phase), quantity take-off bill(procurement phase), and exchange rate fluctuations(construction phase) were analyzed the highest cost impact factors. Third, detail design errors(engineering phase), a equipment procurement plan(procurement phase), and schedule management errors(construction phase) were analyzed the highest time impact factors.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권6호
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• pp.66-92
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• 2019

Purpose - Foreign Exchange Rates (FER) have been one of the most significant factors for both Korean exporters and the economy of Korea. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether exporters with a high level of Exchange Rate Elasticity of Sales (ERES) make the use of earnings management for Income Smoothing (IS). Design/methodology - Income smoothing was obtained using the methodology suggested by Leuz, Nanda and Wysocki (2003). Accruals-based Earnings Management (AEM) was estimated using Discretionary Accruals (DA) calculated by the operant Jones Model developed by Dechow, Sloan and Sweeney (1995). Real Earnings Management (REM) was obtained using the methodologies suggested by Roychowdhury (2006) and Cohen and Zarowin (2010). Data were 2,402 firm years of public listed companies on the KRX, which were not in the financial industry and had a settlement of accounts in December for the period from 2013 to 2017. Findings - Results of the evaluation are as follows. First, companies with higher levels of ERES have relatively lower levels of smoothing of reported income. This might be because a fluctuation in sales caused by an exchange rate fluctuation has a direct impact on the volatility of the reported income. Second, companies with high levels of both ERES and IS have a positive correlation with both AEM and REM. This might be because companies with high levels of IS engage in earnings management to smooth reported income. Specifically, it is possible to assume that for smoothing the reported income, not only AEM but also REM is practiced. Third, companies with high levels of ERES but low levels of IS have a negative correlation with both AEM and REM. This could be interpreted as companies exhibiting low levels of IS due to higher levels of ERES tend to control IS. In addition, such results were supported by firms relying highly on exporting, and are consequently sensitive to exchange rate fluctuation. Therefore, it may conclude that companies with high levels of ERES make the use of earnings management as a means of IS. Originality/value - This study can find its significance from the fact that it is the first study, empirically verifying that companies of Korea, where exportation is a large part, use both AEM and REM as a means for smoothing reported income upon facing exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, it is highly expected that the results of this study could be useful for participants of financial markets when making IS-related decisions.