• Title/Summary/Keyword: Excess risk

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Business Cycle Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Korea (경기순환주기 소비위험과 한국 주식 수익률 횡단면)

  • Kang, Hankil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.98-105
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    • 2021
  • Using the frequency-based decomposition, I decompose the consumption growth to explain well-known patterns of stock returns in the Korean market. To be more specific, the consumption growth is decomposed by its half-life of shocks. The component over four years of half-life is called the business-cycle consumption component, and the components with half-lives under four years are short-run components. I compute the long-run and short-run components of stock excess returns as well and use component-by-component sensitivities to price stock portfolios. As a result, the business-cycle consumption risk with half-life of over four years is useful in explaining the cross-section of size-book-to-market portfolios and size-momentum portfolios in the Korean stock market. The short-run components have their own pricing abilities with mixed direction, so that the restricted one short-term factor model is rejected. The explanatory power with short- and long-run components is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor model. The components with one- to four-year half-lives are also helpful in explaining the returns. The results about the long-run components emphasize the importance of long-run component in consumption growth to explain the asset returns.

Assessment of radioactivity levels and radiation hazards in building materials in Egypt

  • Ahmed E. Abdel Gawad;Mohamed Y. Hanfi;Mostafa N. Tawfik;Mohammed S. Alqahtani;Hamed I. Mira
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.707-714
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    • 2024
  • Different degrees of natural radioactivity found in quartz can have negative consequences on health. Quartz vein along the investigated Abu Ramad area, Egypt, had its natural radioactivity assessed. The HPGe spectrometer was used to determine the role played by the radionuclides 238U, 232Th, and 40K in the gamma radiation that was emitted, and the results showed that these concentrations are 484.64 ± 288.4, 36.8 ± 13.1 and 772.2 ± 134.6 Bq kg-1 were higher than the corresponding reported global limits of 33, 45, and 412 Bq kg-1 for each radionuclide (238U, 232Th, and 40K). Among the radiological hazard parameters, the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) is estimated and it's mean value of ELCR (1.2) is higher than the permissible limit of 0.00029. The relationship between the radionuclides and the associated radiological hazard characteristics was investigated based on multivariate statistical methods including Pearson correlation, principal component analysis (PCA), and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). According to statistical research, the radioactive risk of quartz is primarily caused by the 238U, 232Thand 40K. Finally, applying quartz to building materials would pose a significant risk to the public.

Associations between 24-hour Urine Sodium Excretion Level and Obesity-related Metabolic Risk Factors (비만인과 정상인에서 24시간 소변 내 나트륨 배출량과 비만관련 대사위험지표의 관련성)

  • Oh, Hyun Woo;Kim, Hyun Jung;Jun, Dae Won;Lee, Seung Min
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.460-467
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: Excess sodium intake has been linked to obesity and obesity-related indices. However, the scientific evidence for this association is inadequate. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between urinary sodium excretion and obesity-related indices among Korean adults. Methods: A convenience sample of 120 subjects (60 obese and 60 non-obese subjects) were recruited applying frequency matching for sex and age between two groups. Sodium intake level was assessed through 24-hour urine collection. Obesity-related metabolic risk factors, including fasting blood lipid indices, subcutaneous and visceral fat through computed tomography (CT), insulin resistance indices, blood pressure and liver enzymes were measured in all subjects. These obesity-related metabolic risk factors were compared between obese and non-obese group according to sodium excretion levels (<110 mEq/day, 110~180 mEq/day, >180 mEq/day). Results: After adjusting for age, gender, health behaviors (smoking, exercise, drinking), and energy intake, several obesity-related metabolic risk factors, including abdominal circumference, body fat percentage, subcutaneous and visceral fat, triglyceride, and systolic blood pressure were found to be significantly deteriorated as the sodium excretion level increases. In addition, multivariate adjusted-odds ratios of abdominal obesity, high blood triglyceride, and high blood pressure were found significantly higher in the highest sodium excretion group compared to the lowest group. The mean number of metabolic syndrome risk factors was also significantly greater in the highest sodium excretion group than in the lowest group. Conclusions: The current study findings suggested that high sodium intake can affect obesity and metabolic syndrome risk negatively, implying the necessity of future research on low-sodium diet intervention in relation to obesity and related health problems.

Value-at-Risk Models in Crude Oil Markets (원유시장 분석을 위한 VaR 모형)

  • Kang, Sang Hoon;Yoon, Seong Min
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.947-978
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we investigated a Value-at-Risk approach to the volatility of two crude oil markets (Brent and Dubai). We also assessed the performance of various VaR models (RiskMetrics, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models) with the normal and skewed Student-t distribution innovations. The FIGARCH model outperforms the GARCH and IGARCH models in capturing the long memory property in the volatility of crude oil markets returns. This implies that the long memory property is prevalent in the volatility of crude oil returns. In addition, from the results of VaR analysis, the FIGARCH model with the skewed Student-t distribution innovation predicts critical loss more accurately than other models with the normal distribution innovation for both long and short positions. This finding indicates that the skewed Student-t distribution innovation is better for modeling the skewness and excess kurtosis in the distribution of crude oil returns. Overall, these findings might improve the measurement of the dynamics of crude oil prices and provide an accurate estimation of VaR for buyers and sellers in crude oil markets.

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Health Risk Assessment for Artificial Turf Playgrounds in School Athletic Facilities: Multi-route Exposure Estimation for Use Patterns

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Lim, Young-Wook;Kim, Sun-Duk;Yeo, In-Young;Shin, Dong-Chun;Yang, Ji-Yeon
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.206-221
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    • 2012
  • Hazardous chemicals can be released from artificial turf used in some school playgrounds. To distinguish between Health risk assessment (HRA) exposure scenarios for this study, the ratio of elementary, middle and high schools was considered before final selection. Considering exposure pathways (inhalational, oral and dermal), media and materials were examined, targeting hazardous chemicals released from artificial turf playground-related products. Upon evaluation, the quantity of infill chips was shown to exceed the domestic product content standard (90 mg/kg) at eight (16%) out of 50 schools. PAHs were shown to exceed standards (10 mg/kg) at two (4%) out of the 50 schools. The excess cancer risk (ECR) of carcinogens was shown to be $1{\times}10^{-6}$ in most users for the worst exposure scenario. In children with pica, who represented the most extreme exposure group, the ECR was expected to be as high as $1{\times}10^{-4}$, showing the low risk level of carcinogens. The hazard index (HI) for individual chemicals was shown to be low, at around 0.1 or less, except for children with pica, according to the mean exposure scenario of artificial turf playground exposure. However, the HI was shown to exceed 1.0 in children with pica. Therefore, no direct health risk was found in using artificial turf playgrounds and urethane flooring tracks for the mean exposure scenario, except in children with pica.

The Foreign Asset Leverage Effect of Oil & Gas Companies after the Financial Crisis (금융위기 이후 정유산업의 외화자산 레버리지효과 분석)

  • Dong-Gyun Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

Concentrations Distribution and Risk Evaluation of Heavy Metal in PM-10 in Gwangju (광주지역 미세먼지(PM-10) 중 중금속 농도분포 및 위해성 평가)

  • Hye-Yun, Na;Youn-Goog Lee;Min-Cheol Cho;Hwan-Gi Kim;Won-Hyeong Park;Gwang-Yeob Seo;Se-Heang Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.283-296
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    • 2024
  • This study examined the distribution of airborne metals concentrations and conducted a risk assessment in PM-10 in Gwangju from 2014 to 2022. There were a total of six points, and the concentration of heavy metals at each point was highest in the order of Pyeong-dong(1.5472 ㎍/m3 ) > Nongseong-dong(1.2093 ㎍/m3 ) > Geonguk-dong(1.0100 ㎍/m3 ) > Duam-dong(0.9684 ㎍/m3 ) > Seo-dong(0.9515 ㎍/m3 ) > Nodae-dong(0.8321 ㎍/m3 ). In recent years, the concentration of heavy metals in the atmosphere has generally risen, accompanied by an increase in heavy metals in the soil. The average seasonal concentrations were in the following order: spring(1.4448 ㎍/m3 ) > winter(1.2939 ㎍/m3 ) > fall(0.8303 ㎍/m3 ) > summer (0.5928 ㎍/m3 ). The atmospheric heavy metals most correlated with PM-10 were Ca(0.69), Fe(0.62), Al(0.62) and Mg(0.60). Within the acceptable risk level (1.0E-06) set in this study, heavy metals in the atmosphere were found to have the most excess cancer risk, and the integrated non-cancer risk was as low as 1 or less.

Cancer Risks among Welders and Occasional Welders in a National Population-Based Cohort Study: Canadian Census Health and Environmental Cohort

  • MacLeod, Jill S.;Harris, M. Anne;Tjepkema, Michael;Peters, Paul A.;Demers, Paul A.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.258-266
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    • 2017
  • Background: Welders are exposed to many known and suspected carcinogens. An excess lung cancer risk among welders is well established, but whether this is attributable to welding fumes is unclear. Excess risks of other cancers have been suggested, but not established. We investigated welding cancer risks in the population-based Canadian Census Health and Environmental Cohort. Methods: Among 1.1 million male workers, 12,845 welders were identified using Standard Occupational Classification codes and followed through retrospective linkage of 1991 Canadian Long Form Census and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2010) records. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models based on estimated risks of lung cancer, mesothelioma, and nasal, brain, stomach, kidney, and bladder cancers, and ocular melanoma. Lung cancer histological subtypes and risks by industry group and for occasional welders were examined. Some analyses restricted comparisons to blue-collar workers to minimize effects of potential confounders. Results: Among welders, elevated risks were observed for lung cancer [HR: 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.31], mesothelioma (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.01-3.18), bladder cancer (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.15-1.70), and kidney cancer (HR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01-1.67). When restricted to blue-collar workers, lung cancer and mesothelioma risks were attenuated, while bladder and kidney cancer risks increased. Conclusion: Excess risks of lung cancer and mesothelioma may be partly attributable to factors including smoking and asbestos. Welding-specific exposures may increase bladder and kidney cancer risks, and particular sources of exposure should be investigated. Studies that are able to disentangle welding effects from smoking and asbestos exposure are needed.

Estrogen deprivation and excess energy supply accelerate 7,12-dimethylbenz(a)anthracene-induced mammary tumor growth in C3H/HeN mice

  • Kim, Jin;Lee, Yoon Hee;Yoon Park, Jung Han;Sung, Mi-Kyung
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.628-636
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a risk factor of breast cancer in postmenopausal women. Estrogen deprivation has been suggested to cause alteration of lipid metabolism thereby creating a cellular microenvironment favoring tumor growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of estrogen depletion in combination with excess energy supply on breast tumor development. MATERIALS/METHODS: Ovariectomized (OVX) or sham-operated C3H/HeN mice at 4 wks were provided with either a normal diet or a high-fat diet (HD) for 16 weeks. Breast tumors were induced by administration of 7,12-dimethylbenz(a)anthracene once a week for six consecutive weeks. RESULTS: Study results showed higher serum concentrations of free fatty acids and insulin in the OVX+HD group compared to other groups. The average tumor volume was significantly larger in OVX+HD animals than in other groups. Expressions of mammary tumor insulin receptor and mammalian target of rapamycin proteins as well as the ratio of pAKT/AKT were significantly increased, while pAMPK/AMPK was decreased in OVX+HD animals compared to the sham-operated groups. Higher relative expression of liver fatty acid synthase mRNA was observed in OVX+HD mice compared with other groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that excess energy supply affects the accelerated mammary tumor growth in estrogen deprived mice.

A Study on the Standards of Volatile Organic Compounds in Indoor Air of Office (사무실 실내공기중 휘발성유기화합물의 기준설정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yoon-Shin;Lee, Cheol-Min;Roh, Young-Man;Lee, So-Dam;Sohn, Jong-Ryeul;Kim, Seok-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.413-427
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    • 2006
  • It is necessary to study and develop guidelines for providing comfort and health indoor air quality for office workers since air-tight envelope system of current office building may cause poor indoor air quality. The purpose of this study is to propose guideline for volatile organic compounds in office base on the field study, human health risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. The field study was conducted to survey the concentrations of volatile organic compounds in indoor air of 69 offices from June to September, 2005 in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The rate of excess to guideline of volatile organic compounds in indoor air of new apartment on the Ministry of Environment in Korea(MOE) was surveyed 37.6% for benzene, 6.8% for toluene, and 1.5% for ethylbenzene. As the result of human health risk assessment, mean cancer risk did not exceed 10-6 which is guideline of US.EPA. Also, total hazard index did not exceed 1 which is guideline of US.EPA. Through the cost-benefit analysis of angle on the social-economics to verify the necessary to establish the standards of volatile organic compounds for improvement and development of indoor air quality in office, the present value of benefit was higher than the present value of cost. With the above considerations in mind, it is suggested that the field study for indoor air quality in offices should be expanded and human health risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis be performed th offer scientific data for decision-making of policy for improvement and management of indoor air quality in office.