• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation of meteorological model

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Evaluation for the application of WRF meteorological data on grid-based soil moisture model in upland (WRF 기상자료의 밭 토양 물수지 모형 적용 및 효과 분석)

  • Hong, Min Ki;Lee, Sung Hack;Choi, Jin Yong;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.213-213
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    • 2015
  • 밭에서의 점적 관개를 이용한 노지 재배의 경우 적정 관개 계획 수립을 위해서는 작물 및 토양의 수분 정보에 대한 정확한 파악이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 밭 토양을 GIS(Geographic Information System)를 통해 격자 형태로 분할하여 작물의 증발산량 및 토양의 수분함량을 모의할 수 있는 격자 기반 토양 물수지 모형을 개발하였다. 본 모형을 통해 작물의 소비수량 및 필요 수량을 파악함으로써 작부기간 중 필요한 관개수량을 제시하는 것이 가능하다. 고도화 기상자료로는 국가농림기상센터에서 운영 중인 고해상도 WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) 모형에서 생산된 격자 형태의 복사, 온도, 바람, 강수 자료를 사용하였고 고도화 기상자료의 격자 해상도 별로 모의되는 작물 및 토양의 수분 정보 간 비교 및 분석을 실시하였다. 토양 물수지 모형에 입력되는 격자형태의 자료로는 기상, 토성 및 토지이용 자료가 있으며 기상자료의 경우 가로 및 세로의 크기가 각 270, 810, 2430m로 동일한 3가지 경우로 나누어 적용했으며 토성 및 토지이용 자료의 경우 기상 격자의 최소 크기에 맞춰 가로 및 세로의 크기가 각 270m인 격자로 분할하였다. 이와 같은 과정에 의한 모의 결과 각 격자별 작물 증발산량, 토양수분함량 및 관개수량의 일 연별 시계열 자료를 얻을 수 있으며 동시간대 격자별 수문인자 값을 산정하고 위치에 따른 공간적 상호 상관성을 분석하였다. 결과적으로, 고도화 기상자료의 격자 크기에 따른 밭 토양 물수지 분석 결과를 통해 고도화 기상 격자의 규모별 밭 토양 물수지 분석 효용성을 파악하고자 하였다. 더불어, 시험 지역(Test Bed) 선정을 통해 토양수분 및 증발산량을 실측하고 본 모형의 모의 결과와 비교함으로써 검정하는 것을 향후 연구 계획으로 한다.

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Evaluation of hydrological applicability for rainfall estimation algorithms of dual-polarization radar (이중편파 레이더의 강우 추정 알고리즘별 수문학적 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Myungjin;Lee, Choongke;Yoo, Younghoon;Kwak, Jaewon;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2021
  • Recently, many studies have been conducted to use the radar rainfall in hydrology. However, in the case of weather radar, the beam is blocked due to the limitation of the observation such as mountain effect, which causes underestimation of the radar rainfall. In this study, the radar rainfall was estimated using the Hybrid Sacn Reflectivity (HSR) technique for hydrological use of weather radar and the runoff analysis was performed using the GRM model which is a distributed rainfall-runoff model. As a result of performing the radar rainfall correction and runoff simulation for 5 rainfall events, the accuracy of the dual-polarization radar rainfall using the HSR technique (Q_H_KDP) was the highest with an error within 15% of the ground rainfall. In addition, the result of runoff simulation using Q_H_KDP also showed an accuracy of R2 of 0.9 or more, NRMSE of 1.5 or less and NSE of 0.5 or more. From this study, we examined the application of the dual-polarization radar and this results can be useful for studies related to the hydrological application of dual-polarization radar rainfall in the future.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Imha-Dam Watershed Hydrologic Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 임하댐 유역의 미래 수문순환 전망)

  • Jang, Sun-Sook;Ahn, So-Ra;Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.156-169
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    • 2015
  • This study was to evaluate the RCP climate change impact on hydrological components in the Imha-Dam watershed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model. The model was calibrated for six year(2002~2007) and validated for six year(2008~2013) using daily observed streamflow data at three watershed stations. The overall simulation results for the total released volume at this point appear reasonable by showing that coefficient of determination($R^2$) were 0.70~0.85 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE) were 0.67-0.82 for streamflow, respectively. For future hydrologic evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Korea Meteorological Administration were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 34 years(1980~2013, baseline period) of weather data. Precipitation and temperature showed increase of 10.8% and 4.9%, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow and streamflow showed changes of +11.2%, +1.9%, +10.0%, +12.1%, +18.2%, and +11.2%, respectively.

Comparative assessment of frost event prediction models using logistic regression, random forest, and LSTM networks (로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤포레스트, LSTM 기법을 활용한 서리예측모형 평가)

  • Chun, Jong Ahn;Lee, Hyun-Ju;Im, Seul-Hee;Kim, Daeha;Baek, Sang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.667-680
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    • 2021
  • We investigated changes in frost days and frost-free periods and to comparatively assess frost event prediction models developed using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The meteorological variables for the model development were collected from the Suwon, Cheongju, and Gwangju stations for the period of 1973-2019 for spring (March - May) and fall (September - November). The developed models were then evaluated by Precision, Recall, and f-1 score and graphical evaluation methods such as AUC and reliability diagram. The results showed that significant decreases (significance level of 0.01) in the frequencies of frost days were at the three stations in both spring and fall. Overall, the evaluation metrics showed that the performance of RF was highest, while that of LSTM was lowest. Despite higher AUC values (above 0.9) were found at the three stations, reliability diagrams showed inconsistent reliability. A further study is suggested on the improvement of the predictability of both frost events and the first and last frost days by the frost event prediction models and reliability of the models. It would be beneficial to replicate this study at more stations in other regions.

A Numerical Simulation Study of Strong Wind Events at Jangbogo Station, Antarctica (남극 장보고기지 주변 강풍사례 모의 연구)

  • Kwon, Hataek;Kim, Shin-Woo;Lee, Solji;Park, Sang-Jong;Choi, Taejin;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.617-633
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    • 2016
  • Jangbogo station is located in Terra Nova Bay over the East Antarctica, which is often affected by individual storms moving along nearby storm tracks and a katabatic flow from the continental interior towards the coast. A numerical simulation for two strong wind events of maximum instantaneous wind speed ($41.17m\;s^{-1}$) and daily mean wind speed ($23.92m\;s^{-1}$) at Jangbogo station are conducted using the polar-optimized version of Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF). Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AWS observation at Jangbogo station, the case of maximum instantaneous wind speed is relatively simulated well with high skill in wind with a bias of $-3.3m\;s^{-1}$ and standard deviation of $5.4m\;s^{-1}$. The case of maximum daily mean wind speed showed comparatively lower accuracy for the simulation of wind speed with a bias of -7.0 m/s and standard deviation of $8.6m\;s^{-1}$. From the analysis, it is revealed that the each case has different origins for strong wind. The highest maximum instantaneous wind case is caused by the approach of the strong synoptic low pressure system moving toward Terra Nova Bay from North and the other daily wind maximum speed case is mainly caused by the katabatic flow from the interiors of Terra Nova Bay towards the coast. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation and investigation of high wind events at Jangbogo station. However, additional efforts in utilizing the high resolution terrain is required to reduce the simulation error of high wind mainly caused by katabatic flow, which is received a lot of influence of the surrounding terrain.

Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Models and Evaluation of Their Application on Agricultural Lands in Korea (토양 온실가스 배출 예측 모델 분석 및 국내 농경지 적용성 평가)

  • Hwang, Wonjae;Park, Minseok;Kim, Yong-Seong;Cho, Kijong;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Hyun, Seunghun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.185-190
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    • 2015
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from agricultural lands is recognized as one of important factors of global warming. The objective of this short communication was to evaluate the applicability of different soil GHG emission prediction models on agricultural systems in Korea. Four models, namely, DNDC, DAYCENT, EXPERT-N and COUP, were selected and the basic structure (e.g., components and sub-model), input variables, and output variables were compared. In particular, the availability and compilation of essential input variables were assessed. Major input variables needed for operating these predictive models were found to be available through database systems established by national organizations such as the Korea Meteorological Administration, the Korean Soil Information System, and the Rural Development Administration. However, in order to apply these models in Korea, it was necessary to calibrate and validate each of the models for the domestic landscape settings and climate conditions. In addition, field data of long-term monitoring of GHG emission from agricultural lands are limited and therefore should be measured.

Utilization Evaluation of Numerical forest Soil Map to Predict the Weather in Upland Crops (밭작물 농업기상을 위한 수치형 산림입지토양도 활용성 평가)

  • Kang, Dayoung;Hwang, Yeongeun;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2021
  • Weather is one of the important factors in the agricultural industry as it affects the price, production, and quality of crops. Upland crops are directly exposed to the natural environment because they are mainly grown in mountainous areas. Therefore, it is necessary to provide accurate weather for upland crops. This study examined the effectiveness of 12 forest soil factors to interpolate the weather in mountainous areas. The daily temperature and precipitation were collected by the Korea Meteorological Administration between January 2009 and December 2018. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Kriging, and Random Forest (RF) were considered to interpolate. For evaluating the interpolation performance, automatic weather stations were used as training data and automated synoptic observing systems were used as test data for cross-validation. Unfortunately, the forest soil factors were not significant to interpolate the weather in the mountainous areas. GAM with only geography aspects showed that it can interpolate well in terms of root mean squared error and mean absolute error. The significance of the factors was tested at the 5% significance level in GAM, and the climate zone code (CLZN_CD) and soil water code B (SIBFLR_LAR) were identified as relatively important factors. It has shown that CLZN_CD could help to interpolate the daily average and minimum daily temperature for upland crops.

Evaluation of water quality in the Sangsa Lake under climate change by combined application of HSPF and AEM3D (HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석)

  • Goh, Nayeon;Kim, Jaeyoung;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Nakdong River Using Machine Learning-Based Satellite Data and Water Quality, Hydrological, and Meteorological Factors (머신러닝 기반 위성영상과 수질·수문·기상 인자를 활용한 낙동강의 Chlorophyll-a 농도 추정)

  • Soryeon Park;Sanghun Son;Jaegu Bae;Doi Lee;Dongju Seo;Jinsoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2023
  • Algal bloom outbreaks are frequently reported around the world, and serious water pollution problems arise every year in Korea. It is necessary to protect the aquatic ecosystem through continuous management and rapid response. Many studies using satellite images are being conducted to estimate the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), an indicator of algal bloom occurrence. However, machine learning models have recently been used because it is difficult to accurately calculate Chl-a due to the spectral characteristics and atmospheric correction errors that change depending on the water system. It is necessary to consider the factors affecting algal bloom as well as the satellite spectral index. Therefore, this study constructed a dataset by considering water quality, hydrological and meteorological factors, and sentinel-2 images in combination. Representative ensemble models random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to predict the concentration of Chl-a in eight weirs located on the Nakdong river over the past five years. R-squared score (R2), root mean square errors (RMSE), and mean absolute errors (MAE) were used as model evaluation indicators, and it was confirmed that R2 of XGBoost was 0.80, RMSE was 6.612, and MAE was 4.457. Shapley additive expansion analysis showed that water quality factors, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, and the band ratio using red edge bands were of high importance in both models. Various input data were confirmed to help improve model performance, and it seems that it can be applied to domestic and international algal bloom detection.

Application of X-band polarimetric radar observation for flood forecasting in Japan

  • Kim, Sun-Min;Yorozu, Kazuaki;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Shiiba, Michiharu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 2011
  • The radar observation system in Japan is operated by two governmental groups: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) of Japan. The JMA radar observation network is comprised of 20 C-band radars (with a wavelength of 5.6 cm), which cover most of the Japan Islands and observe rainfall intensity and distribution. And the MLIT's radar observation system is composed of 26 C-band radars throughout Japan. The observed radar echo from each radar unit is first modified, and then sent to the National Bureau of Synthesis Process within the MLIT. Through several steps for homogenizing observation accuracy, including distance and elevation correction, synthesized rainfall intensity maps for the entire nation of Japan are generated every 5 minutes. The MLIT has recently launched a new radar observation network system designed for flash flood observation and forecasting in small river basins within urban areas. It is called the X-band multi parameter radar network, and is distinguished by its dual polarimetric wave pulses of short length (3cm). Attenuation problems resulting from the short wave length of radar echo are strengthened by polarimetric wavelengths and very dense radar networks. Currently, the network is established within four areas. Each area is observed using 3-4 X-band radars with very fine resolution in spatial (250 m) and temporal (1 minute intervals). This study provides a series of utilization procedures for the new input data into a real-time forecasting system. First of all, the accuracy of the X-band radar observation was determined by comparing its results with the rainfall intensities as observed by ground gauge stations. It was also compared with conventional C-band radar observation. The rainfall information from the new radar network was then provided to a distributed hydrologic model to simulate river discharges. The simulated river discharges were evaluated again using the observed river discharge to estimate the applicability of the new observation network in the context of operations regarding flood forecasting. It was able to determine that the newly equipped X-band polarimetric radar network shows somewhat improved observation accuracy compared to conventional C-band radar observation. However, it has a tendency to underestimate the rainfall, and the accuracy is not always superior to that of the C-band radar. The accuracy evaluation of the X-band radar observation in this study was conducted using only limited rainfall events, and more cases should be examined for developing a broader understanding of the general behavior of the X-band radar and for improving observation accuracy.

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