• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation Modeling

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Can Housing Prices Be an Alternative to a Census-based Deprivation Index? An Evaluation Based on Multilevel Modeling (주택가격이 센서스에 기반한 박탈지수의 대안이 될 수 있는가?: 다수준 모델에 기반한 평가)

  • Sohn, Chul;Nakaya, Tomoki
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.197-211
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    • 2018
  • We conducted this research to examine how well regional housing prices are suited to use as an alternative to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices in health and medical geography studies. To examine the relative performance of mean regional housing prices compared to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices, we compared several multilevel logistic regression models, where the first level was individuals and the second was health districts in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in Korea, for the sake of adjusting the regional clustering tendency of unknown factors. In these models, we predicted two dichotomous variables that represented individuals' after-lunch tooth brushing behavior and use of dental floss by individual characteristics and regional indices. Then, we compared the relative predictive performance of the models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results from the estimations showed that mean regional housing prices and census-based deprivation indices were correlated with the two types of dental health behavior in a statistical sense. The results also revealed that the model with mean regional housing prices showed smaller AIC and BIC compared with other models with conventional census-based deprivation indices. These results imply that it is possible for housing prices summarized using aerial units to be used as an alternative to conventional census-based deprivation indices when the census variables employed cannot properly reflect the characteristics of the aerial units.

A Study on Offshore Ship-to-Ship Mooring Characteristics through Numerical Analysis (수치해석을 통한 해상 Ship-to-Ship 계류 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Yun-Sok;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.135-137
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, the need for ship-to-ship has emerged around the world as the volume of tanker carriers increases. In the case of STS mooring, a safety review should be carried out on other standards since the characteristics are different from the mooring at a typical wharf. However, there is no separate standard about STS in Korea. Therefore, in this study, STS mooring simulation and sensitivity analysis were performed using OPTIMOOR program, a commercial numerical analysis program, to identify STS mooring characteristics. The target sea area is modeled at D2 anchorage of Yeosu Port in Korea, and modeling of the target ship is selected as the case of VLCC-VLCC. Based on this, we tried to establish the standard for STS mooring safety evaluation. Numerical simulation results show that the STS mooring changes depending on the ship load condition, weather condition(wave period and wave height), encounter angle and pre-tension of mooring line. In addition, a risk matrix was created to set the safe external force range in the sea area. It is expected that the mooring characteristics of the STS can be grasped by this result and contribute to the revision of the mooring safety assessment standard.

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A Study on the Development of Readmission Predictive Model (재입원 예측 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yun-Jung;Kim, Yoo-Mi;Han, Seung-Woo;Choe, Jun-Yeong;Baek, Seol-Gyeong;Kang, Sung-Hong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.435-447
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    • 2019
  • In order to prevent unnecessary re-admission, it is necessary to intensively manage the groups with high probability of re-admission. For this, it is necessary to develop a re-admission prediction model. Two - year discharge summary data of one university hospital were collected from 2016 to 2017 to develop a predictive model of re-admission. In this case, the re-admitted patients were defined as those who were discharged more than once during the study period. We conducted descriptive statistics and crosstab analysis to identify the characteristics of rehospitalized patients. The re-admission prediction model was developed using logistic regression, neural network, and decision tree. AUC (Area Under Curve) was used for model evaluation. The logistic regression model was selected as the final re-admission predictive model because the AUC was the best at 0.81. The main variables affecting the selected rehospitalization in the logistic regression model were Residental regions, Age, CCS, Charlson Index Score, Discharge Dept., Via ER, LOS, Operation, Sex, Total payment, and Insurance. The model developed in this study was limited to generalization because it was two years data of one hospital. It is necessary to develop a model that can collect and generalize long-term data from various hospitals in the future. Furthermore, it is necessary to develop a model that can predict the re-admission that was not planned.

Evaluation of Optimum Spacing between Anchor Bodies of Distributive Compression Anchor Using Numerical Simulation (수치해석을 이용한 압축 분산형 앵커의 내하체 최적 간격 산정)

  • Gu, Kyo-Young;Shin, Gyu-Bum;Chung, Choong-Ki;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.7
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2019
  • Load distributive compression anchors distribute the compressive stress in the grout and increase the pull-out capacity of the anchor by using multiple anchor bodies. In this anchor type, the spacing between the anchor bodies has a large influence on the stress in the grout. However, there are few researches about the spacing and there are no design standards. Therefore, the effect of the anchor body spacing on the grout stress was analyzed by performing finite element analyses. First, the applicability of the numerical modeling was verified by comparing with field test results of a compression anchor. Then, the parametric study was performed varying soil type, anchor body spacing, and load magnitude. The analysis results showed that the maximum compressive stress in the grout increased at the narrower spacing and the tensile stress developed at the wider spacing. Therefore, the optimum spacing was defined as the spacing, which prevents the superposition of compressive stresses and minimize the tensile stress. Finally, the optimum spacing was proposed according to the soil type and the load magnitude.

Study of Soil Erosion for Evaluation of Long-term Behavior of Radionuclides Deposited on Land (육상 침적 방사성 핵종의 장기 거동 평가를 위한 토사 침식 연구)

  • Min, Byung-Il;Yang, Byung-Mo;Kim, Jiyoon;Park, Kihyun;Kim, Sora;Lee, Jung Lyul;Suh, Kyung-Suk
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2019
  • The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) resulted in the deposition of large quantities of radionuclides over parts of eastern Japan. Radioactive contaminants have been observed over a large area including forests, cities, rivers and lakes. Due to the strong adsorption of radioactive cesium by soil particles, radioactive cesium migrates with the eroded soil, follows the surface flow paths, and is delivered downstream of population-rich regions and eventually to coastal areas. In this study, we developed a model to simulate the transport of contaminated sediment in a watershed hydrological system and this model was compared with observation data from eroded soil observation instruments located at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. Two methods were applied to analyze the soil particle size distribution of the collected soil samples, including standardized sieve analysis and image analysis methods. Numerical models were developed to simulate the movement of soil along with actual rainfall considering initial saturation, rainfall infiltration, multilayer and rain splash. In the 2019 study, a numerical model will be used to add rainfall shield effect by trees, evaporation effect and shield effects of surface water. An eroded soil observation instrument has been installed near the Wolsong nuclear power plant since 2018 and observation data are being continuously collected. Based on these observations data, we will develop the numerical model to analyze long-term behavior of radionuclides on land as they move from land to rivers, lakes and coastal areas.

Image-Based Automatic Bridge Component Classification Using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 이미지 기반 교량 구성요소 자동분류 네트워크 개발)

  • Cho, Munwon;Lee, Jae Hyuk;Ryu, Young-Moo;Park, Jeongjun;Yoon, Hyungchul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.751-760
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    • 2021
  • Most bridges in Korea are over 20 years old, and many problems linked to their deterioration are being reported. The current practice for bridge inspection mainly depends on expert evaluation, which can be subjective. Recent studies have introduced data-driven methods using building information modeling, which can be more efficient and objective, but these methods require manual procedures that consume time and money. To overcome this, this study developed an image-based automaticbridge component classification network to reduce the time and cost required for converting the visual information of bridges to a digital model. The proposed method comprises two convolutional neural networks. The first network estimates the type of the bridge based on the superstructure, and the second network classifies the bridge components. In avalidation test, the proposed system automatically classified the components of 461 bridge images with 96.6 % of accuracy. The proposed approach is expected to contribute toward current bridge maintenance practice.

Experimental Evaluation of the Flexural Behavior of SY Permanent Steel Form for RC Beam and Girder (SY 비탈형 보 거푸집의 휨 거동에 대한 실험적 고찰)

  • Bae, Kyu-Woong;Boo, Yoon-Seob;Shin, Sang-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2022
  • Currently, in the domestic construction industry, the free web method has been emerging as a potential solution to the shortage of skilled workers due to the prolonged COVID-19 crisis, as it helps in securing economic feasibility through shortening the construction period and reducing labor costs. To consider one part of the construction method, in this study, the bending behavior according to the load was evaluated for the SY slope-type beam formwork, which was manufactured at a factory, assembled with rebar, brought into the site, and then poured into the site. For the SY Beam standard cross-sectional shape, a cross-sectional dimensional width of 400mm and depth 600mm determined through structural modeling using the MIDAS GEN program were applied. A total of 6 specimens were made with a member length of 5,000mm, 5 specimens and one RC specimen in the comparison group were manufactured in real-size format using the thickness of the steel plate(0.8, 1.0, 1.2mm) as a variable, and bending experiments were performed. In the bending test, the steel plate deck showed high initial stiffness and maximum strength as it yielded, which showed that it sufficiently contributed to the flexural strength. It is judged that additional analysis and experimental studies for 1.05, 1.1, and 1.15mm are needed to derive the appropriate steel plate thickness and the method for calculating the tensile force contribution of the steel plate to secure the manufacturing, construction and economic feasibility of SY Beam in the future.

Exploring Learning Progressions for Global Warming: Focus on Middle School Level (지구 온난화에 대한 학습발달과정 탐색: 중학교를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Eun-Jeong;Lee, Kiyoung;Kwak, Youngsun;Park, Jaeyong
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to explore learning progressions for global warming at middle school level. For this purpose, we conducted a construct modeling approach that specifies constructs, item designs, outcome spaces, and measurement model steps from April to October, 2021. In order to develop student assessment items, we analyzed the 2015 revised curriculum and textbooks of middle school and categorized a concept hierarchy for each construct to create a construct map. The assessment items were developed into multiple-choice, short answer, and essay questions according to the selected constructs to strengthen the linkage between the constructs and the items. Based on the three-step grading criteria for each item, an online assessment of 21 minor items developed for middle school students show that many students met 'high' level, but none met 'low' level. In this manner, the initial set lower anchor was reset to level 0, the original set upper anchor was lowered from level 4 to level 3, and the hypothetical learning progression for global warming was presented in the following order: phenomenal, conceptual, and mechanical understandings. The results of the research have raised implications for reorganizing the next science curriculum and improving the assessment system.

Evaluation of water quality in the Sangsa Lake under climate change by combined application of HSPF and AEM3D (HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석)

  • Goh, Nayeon;Kim, Jaeyoung;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

Analysis of Remote Driving Simulation Performance for Low-speed Mobile Robot under V2N Network Delay Environment (V2N 네트워크 지연 환경에서 저속 이동 로봇 원격주행 모의실험을 통한 성능 분석)

  • Song, Yooseung;Min, Kyoung-wook;Choi, Jeong Dan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.18-29
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    • 2022
  • Recently, cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) testbeds have been deployed in great numbers, and advanced autonomous driving research using V2X communication technology has been conducted actively worldwide. In particular, the broadcasting services in their beginning days, giving warning messages, basic safety messages, traffic information, etc., gradually developed into advanced network services, such as platooning, remote driving, and sensor sharing, that need to perform real-time. In addition, technologies improving these advanced network services' throughput and latency are being developed on many fronts to support these services. Notably, this research analyzed the network latency requirements of the advanced network services to develop a remote driving service for the droid type low-speed robot based on the 3GPP C-V2X communication technology. Subsequently, this remote driving service's performance was evaluated using system modeling (that included the operator behavior) and simulation. This evaluation showed that a respective core and access network latency of less than 30 ms was required to meet more than 90 % of the remote driving service's performance requirements under the given test conditions.