• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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LRFD Design and Reliability Level Estimation of a Steel Closed-Box Girder Bridge (폐단면 강박스거더교의 LRFD 설계와 신뢰성수준 평가)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Yun, Dong-Geon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2010
  • Most of the steel bridges in Korea are being currently designed by the allowable stress design method that uses the conventional deterministic factors of safety. However the limit state design based on the concept of probability, statistics and reliability engineering is becoming very popular as a global standard deign method, leading the rational and economic bridge design. As part of the fundamental research to establish the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) of steel bridges considering domestic environmental conditions and regional characteristics, an experimental design is conducted by applying AASHTO-LRFD specification especially to a steel closed-box girder, which occupies relatively a large portion of steel bridges in Korea. Throughout the experimental design according to various sectional changes, some of the issues to be considered in the LRFD design of a composite steel closed-box girder bridge are examined. In this process, an Excel-based design verification program is developed for easy computation and prevention of errors. Quantitative reliability levels of the bridge sections designed by LRFD are also estimated using a reliability analysis method, and compared with the target reliability indexes applied in the LRFD design to verify the validity of the procedure and methodology used in this study.

The Impacts of Biofuel Production on Water Quality and a Mitigation Methodology to Reduce the Impacts (바이오 연료 생산이 수질에 미치는 영향과 수질오염의 최소화 방안)

  • Lee, Tae-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.50-66
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    • 2011
  • Biofuel crops and their economical benefits have been recently researched as one of the alternative energy sources. Very few studies, however, have brought an issue about the impacts of the new cropping on environment, especially water quality. Because biofuel cropping requires more crop production with more fertilizers for cost-effectiveness, water quality near the new crops as well as downstream is expected to be degraded. In this study, the impacts of biofuel crop production on water quality was estimated by scenarios between pre-biofuel cropping and post-biofuel cropping using the previously calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model in a watershed in Texas, USA. Then, 30 meter filter strips were implemented on each biofuel ropland as a mitigation method. The economical and agricultural aspect and requirements of biofuel cropping was also previously investigated. The on-site impacts estimation showed that biofuel cropping increased about 250% to 1,150% of Total Nitrogen and about 100% to 1,100% of Total Phosphorous annually. The off-site estimation at the reservoir (entire watershed outlet) showed the annual increase of 40 to 50% for both Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorous. The on-site effectiveness of filter strips was from 58.0% to 67.9% reduction for Total Nitrogen and 57.7% to 68.2% reduction for Total Phosphorous. The filter strips reduced 28.5% of Total Nitrogen and 29.4% of Total Phosphorous at the watershed outlet.

Prediction of Water-Quality Enhancement Effects of Gates Operation in the West-Nakdong River Using RMA2/RMA4 Models (RMA2/RMA4 모형을 이용한 서낙동간 수문연계운영의 수질개선 효과 예측)

  • Lee, Keum-Chan;Yoon, Young-Sam;Lee, Nam-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.971-981
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    • 2009
  • An objective of this study is as follows: 1) performing sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of RMA2 and RMA4 models for the West-Nakdong River, 2) drawing up alternatives of gates-operation for water-quality enhancement, and 3) quantitative evaluation of methodology of 'flow-restoration by gates-operation' among 'Comprehensive Plan Improving Water-Quality in the West-Nakdong River(WNR)' with the target water-quality(BOD at Nakbon-N point: below 4.3 mg/L). The parameters for the RMA2 (depth-averaged two-dimensional flow model) and RMA4 (depth-averaged two-dimensional water-quality model) were determined by sensitivity analysis. Result of parameter estimation for RMA2 and RMA4 models is $1,000\;Pa{\cdot}s$ of the eddy viscosity, 20 of the Peclet number, 0.025 of the Manning coefficient, and $1.0\;m^2/s$ of the diffusion coefficient. We have evaluated the effects of water-quality enhancement of the selected alternatives by numerical simulation technique with the models under the steady-state flow condition and the time-variant transport condition. Because of no-resuspension from river bottom and considering BOD as conservative matter, these simulation results slightly differ from real phenomena. In the case of $50\;m^3/s$ of Daejeo-gate inflow, two-dimensional flow pn results result represents that small velocity occurs in the Pyungkang Stream and no flow in the Maekdo River. In the WNR, there occurs the most rapid flow near timhae-bridge. In the WNR, changes of water-quality for the four selected simulation cases(6, 10, 30, $50\;m^3/s$ of the Daejeo-gate inflow) were predicted. Since the Daejeo-Gate and the Noksan-Gate can be opened up to 7 days, it would be found that sustainable inflow of $30\;m^3/s$ at the Daejeo-gate makes BOD in the WNR to be under the target of water-quality.

The Effect of Uncertainty in Roughness and Discharge on Flood Inundation Mapping (조도계수와 유량의 불확실성이 홍수범람도 구축에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Younghun;Yeo, Kyu Dong;Kim, Soo Young;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.937-945
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    • 2013
  • The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all variables involved in the overall process including input data, model parameters and modeling approaches. This study investigated the uncertainty arising from key variables (flow condition and Manning's n) among model variables in flood inundation mapping for the Missouri River near Boonville, Missouri, USA. Methodology of this study involves the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) to quantify the uncertainty bounds of flood inundation area. Uncertainty bounds in the GLUE procedure are evaluated by selecting two likelihood functions, which is two statistic (inverse of sum of squared error (1/SAE) and inverse of sum of absolute error (1/SSE)) based on an observed water surface elevation and simulated water surface elevations. The results from GLUE show that likelihood measure based on 1/SSE is more sensitive on observation than likelihood measure based on 1/SAE, and that the uncertainty propagated from two variables produces an uncertainty bound of about 2% in the inundation area compared to observed inundation. Based on the results obtained form this study, it is expected that this study will be useful to identify the characteristic of flood.

Flood stage analysis considering the uncertainty of roughness coefficients and discharge for Cheongmicheon watershed (조도계수와 유량의 불확실성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 홍수위 해석)

  • Shin, Sat-Byeol;Park, Jihoon;Song, Jung-Hun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.661-671
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the flood stage considering the uncertainty caused by the river roughness coefficients and discharge. The methodology of this study involved the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) to quantify the uncertainty bounds applying three different storm events. The uncertainty range of the roughness was 0.025~0.040. In case of discharge, the uncertainty stemmed from parameters in stage-discharge rating curve, if h represents stage for discharge Q, which can be written as $Q=A(h-B)^C$. Parameters in rating curve (A, B and C) were estimated by non-linear regression model and assumed by t distribution. The range of parameters in rating curve was 5.138~18.442 for A, -0.524~0.104 for B and 2.427~2.924 for C. By sampling 10,000 parameter sets, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The simulated stage value was represented by 95% confidence interval. In storm event 1~3, the average bound was 0.39 m, 0.83 m and 0.96 m, respectively. The peak bound was 0.52 m, 1.36 m and 1.75 m, respectively. The recurrence year of each storm event applying the frequency analysis was 1-year, 10-year and 25-year, respectively.

The Price of Risk in the Korean Stock Distribution Market after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국 주식유통시장의 위험가격에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-Woo;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

A comparative study on ammonia emission inventory in livestock manure compost application through a foreign case study (국내외 가축분뇨 퇴액비 이용 분야 암모니아 배출량 인벤토리 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Suk;Koo, Namin;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2020
  • In Korea, more than 70% of the ammonia(NH3) released into the atmosphere is known to originate from livestock manure. The total emission (kg year-1) is calculated by multiplying the emission factor (kg head-1 yr-1) and the activity data (head). To improve the accuracy and reliability of the NH3 emission estimation process, an accurate account of livestock manure production, calculation of NH3 conversion and generation during the composting and liquefaction of manure, estimation of NH3 generation in the storage and transportation of manure and compost, and a comparative study of NH3 emission during the soil spreading process must be performed. Compared to the US and EU-28, in particular, the domestic emission factor is relatively even and the spatial/temporal scale is not broken down sufficiently to reflect the domestic situation. As a way to improve the accuracy and expertise of estimating NH3 emission factors, a 'dynamic chamber-capture system' can be utilized, which allows complex considerations of compost, liquid manure, soil, and climate characteristics. By reviewing and comparing the data related to domestic and foreign NH3 emission, we identified shortcomings in the current domestic system and the directions to be taken and suggested a chamber system that could estimate NH3 emission flux. It is also necessary to establish a methodology for mesocosm systems in the field, in addition to indoor chamber systems, to be linked with practical policies, such as the calculation of new emission factors for missing sources.

Precise Estimation of Nonlinear Parameter in Pulse-Like Ultrasonic Signal (펄스형 초음파 신호에서 비선형 파라미터의 정밀 추정)

  • Ha, Job;Jhang, Kyung-Young;Sasaki, Kimio;Tanaka, Hiroaki
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2006
  • Ultrasonic nonlinearity has been considered as a solution for the detection of microcracks or interfacial delamination in a layered structure. The distinguished phenomenon in nonlinear ultrasonics is the generation of higher-order harmonic waves during the propagation. Therefore, in order to quantify the nonlinearity, the conventional method measures a parameter defined as the amplitude ratio of a second-order harmonic component and a fundamental frequency component included in the propagated ultrasonic wave signal. However, its application In field inspection is not easy at the present stage because no standard methodology has yet been made to accurately estimate this parameter. Thus, the aim of this paper is to propose an advanced signal processing technique for the precise estimation of a nonlinear ultrasonic parameter, which is based on power spectral and bispectral analysis. The method of estimating power spectrum and bispectrum of the pulse-like ultrasonic wave signal used in the commercial SAM (scanning acoustic microscopy) equipment is especially considered in this study The usefulness of the proposed method Is confirmed by experiments for a Newton ring with a continuous air gap between two glasses and a real semiconductor sample with local delaminations. The results show that the nonlinear parameter obtained tv the proposed method had a good correlation with the delamination.

Estimation of Longitudinal Dynamic Stability Derivatives for a Tailless Aircraft Using Dynamic Mesh Method (Dynamic Mesh 기법을 활용한 무미익 비행체 종축 동안정 미계수 예측)

  • Chung, Hyoung-Seog;Yang, Kwang-Jin;Kwon, Ky-Beom;Lee, Ho-Keun;Kim, Sun-Tae;Lee, Myung-Sup;Reu, Taekyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.232-242
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    • 2015
  • For stealth performance consideration, many UAV designs are adopting tailless lambda-shaped configurations which are likely to have unsteady dynamic characteristics. In order to control such UAVs through automatic flight control system, more accurate estimation of dynamic stability derivatives becomes essential. In this paper, dynamic stability derivatives of a tailless lambda-shaped UAV are estimated through numerically simulated forced oscillation method incorporating dynamic mesh technique. First, the methodology is validated by benchmarking the CFD results against previously published experimental results of the Standard Dynamics Model(SDM). The dependency of initial angle of attack, oscillation frequency and oscillation magnitude on the dynamic stability derivatives of a tailless UAV configuration is then studied. The results show reasonable agreements with experimental reference data and prove the validity and efficiency of the concept of using CFD to estimate the dynamic derivatives.

Numerical Modeling for the Detection of Debris Flow Using Detailed Soil Map and GIS (정밀토양도와 GIS를 이용한 토석류 발생지역 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Pan Gu;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2017
  • This study presents the prediction methodology of debris flow occurrence areas using the SINMAP model. Former studies used a single calibration region applying some of the soil test results to predict debris flow occurrence in SINMAP model, which couldn't subdivide the soil properties for the target areas. On the other hands, a multi-calibration region using a detailed soil map and soil strength parameters (c, ${\phi}$) for each soil series to make up for limitation of former studies is proposed. In this process, soils with soil erodibility factor (K) are classified into three types: 1) gravel and gravelly soil. 2) sand and sandy soil, and 3) silt and clay. In addition, T/R estimation method using mean elevation of target area instead of T/R method using actual occurrence time is suggested in this study. The suggested method is applied to Seobyeok-1 ri area, Bonghwa-gun where debris flow occurred. As a result of comparison between two T/R estimation method, both T/R estimations are almost equal. Therefore, the suggested methodologies in this study will contribute to set up the national-wide mitigation plan against debris flow occurrence.