• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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Methodology for Estimating Agricultural Water Supply in the Han River Basin (한강수계의 농업용수 공급량 조사방법의 개발)

  • Im, Sang-Jun;Park, Seung-U;Kim, Hyeon-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.765-774
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study are to develop a realistic methodology to estimate agricultural water supply for rice paddy fields from reservoirs, pumping stations, intake structures, and tube wells on river basin scale. Agricultural water supply from irrigation reservoirs are estimated using the daily or ten day's storage rate data and DIROMmaily Inigation Reservoir Operation Model) model. Estimation of daily water supply from pumping station are carried out from the annual water use with typical water supply patterns. The daily groundwater withdrawn are investigated from the gross water requirement for rice and the design capacity of tube well. And, the daily intake discharge are estimated the minimum amount from the gross water requirement, stream discharge, and the design capacity. During 1993 to 1997, the annual water supply for irrigation in the Han river basin ranged from 569 to 709 million $\textrm{m}^3/yr$, and the mean was estimated to be 640 million $\textrm{m}^3/yr$.

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Estimation of Cycle Time for Construction Process of NATM Tunnel by using RFID Technology (RFID기술을 이용한 NATM터널 작업 프로세스의 사이클타임 산정방안 연구)

  • Park, NamJin;Kim, HyounSeung;Moon, HyounSeok;Kang, LeenSeok
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.1D
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2012
  • Radio Frequency Identification(RFID) technology, which replace BAR CODE technology that has been widely utilizing in the field of the manufacturing industry for a long time, has been proven in the whole industries including national defense, transportation, and construction as well as manufacturing industry. Recently, with this trend, researches for adapting the RFID technology have been attempting continually centering on the architectural project in the construction industry. However, those researches are mainly focusing on the experimental utilization such as simple activity and material management. To solve these issues, this study demonstrated methodologies for adapting the RFID technology by the construction steps aiming to analyze cycle time of five types of construction process to the NATM method of tunneling work. Besides, the application of RFID technology in civil engineering work was verified by demonstrating the suggested methodology to actual sites. Therefore, it is expected that the suggested methodology will be utilized for predicting the progress rate and establishing of follow-up work plans, and the site applicability of the RFID technology will be expanded to the civil engineering projects.

Failure Probability Estimation of Flaw in CANDU Pressure Tube Considering the Dimensional Change (가동중 중수로 압력관의 외경과 두꼐 변화를 고려한 결함의 파손확률 예측)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Lee, Joon-Seong;Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Youn-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.2305-2311
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    • 2002
  • The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

The Study on the Asymmetry of Inertia and Variety-Seeking State - Using Section-Aggregated Multinomial Logit Analysis (관성 및 다양성추구 상태의 비대칭성에 관한 연구 - 구간통합 다항로짓분석을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Seung-yon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 2013
  • Customer's purchase state consists of purchase inertia and variety-seeking. As the growing brand familiarity triggers the increase of brand attractiveness, customers purchase state will be of inertia. However the excessively growing brand familiarity ignites the decrease of brand attractiveness. Followingly the purchase state will be tend to plunge into the variety-seeking state. The main topic of this study is to validate the asymmetric formation of customer's purchase states between inertia and variety-seeking. In order to follow up the main topic, this article introduces a model to freely describe the velocity of value changes depending upon the purchase states. This model will help overcome the limitation of the past studies having been based on the symmetric value changes. Based on this approach marketer will be able to decide the timing of sales promotions. This research utilized local telecommunication carrier's database of smartphone application purchase/download records. This database was collected from two years (2009 and 2010) span, the time when the smartphones started commodifying in Korea whilst most of the past studies had used purchase data of maturity stage products. From this approach utilizing the introduction stage data in the product life cycle, the probability of brand choice depending upon the purchase state on the early-stage can be probed. Moreover, this study tries to expand the research methodology from the other areas of research by knowledge sharing. Here this study introduces the methodology of section-aggregated multinomial logit to simultaneously estimate the parameters that were included in the plural multinomial logit functions while the plural functions were inter-connected. This adoption of section-aggregated multinomial logit model procedures from the computerized statistics areas is expected to nourish the marketing research for more precise analysis and estimation of effects of marketing activities.

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A Study on the Algorithm for Framework Materials Calculation of the Reinforced Concrete (철근콘크리트조의 골조물량산출 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Hong Chae-Gon;Kim Tae-Hui;Kim Sun-Kuk;Han Choong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.359-362
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    • 2002
  • The construction industry from the research about materials calculate automation became accomplished plentifully. Material price calculate with application in the CAD plan is more quicker and accurate than with existing handy work. It gives a many effect in development of the research and estimation program against material calculate production automation with application of the CAD. But material calculate production uses an estimate program from generally a framework construction and the material calculate production work becomes accomplished. A thesis of the material calculate production methodology about a part of materials boundary condition from material calculate production work of framework construction is the actual condition which is insufficient. From the dissertation which it sees standardize the concrete, a concrete form a each part of materials calculate method from framework construction material calculate production. It standardize a part of materials agree with a condition of material calculate methodology which from a each part of materials boundary condition.

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Selection of Probability Distribution of Pavement Life Based on Reliability Method (신뢰성 개념을 이용한 적정 포장 수명분포 선정)

  • Do, Myung-Sik;Kwon, Soo-Ahn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we present the methodology about an optimal probability distribution selection as well as survival rate estimation with the national highway database from 1999 to 2008. Probability paper methods are adopted to estimate the parameters of each hazard model. The goodness-of-fit test, such as the Anderson-Darling statistics, was performed. As a result, we found that Lognormal distributionan is an appropriate distribution of newly constructed sections as well as overlayed sections. We also ascertained that the results of survival rate for pavement life between the proposed method and observed data are similar. Such a selection methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

A Methodology for Expanding Sample OD Based on Probe Vehicle (프로브 차량 기반 표본 OD의 전수화 기법)

  • Baek, Seung-Kirl;Jeong, So-Young;Kim, Hyun-Myung;Choi, Kee-Choo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2008
  • As a fundamental input to the travel demand forecasting, OD has been always a concern in obtaining the accurate link traffic volume. Numerous methods were applied thus far without a complete success. Some existing OD estimation techniques generally extract regular samples and expand those sample into population. These methods, however, leaves some to be desired in terms of accuracy. To complement such problems, research on estimating OD using additional information such as link traffic volume as well as sample link use rate have been accomplished. In this paper, a new approach for estimating static origin-destination (OD) using probe vehicle has been proposed. More specifically, this paper tried to search an effective sample rate which varies over time and space. In a sample test network study, the traffic volume error rate of each link was set as objective function in solving the problem. As a key result the MAE (mean absolute error) between expanded OD and actual OD was identified as about 5.28%. The developed methodology could be applied with similar cases. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been discussed.

Estimation of Social Costs between the Main Transport Modes using Damage Function Approach (피해함수접근법을 이용한 주요운송수단의 사회적 비용 산정)

  • So, Aerim;Shin, Seungsik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.1-37
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this paper is to estimate the social costs induced by various transport modes such as truck, rail and sea vessel. For this purpose, we introduce the damage function of each transport modes, and estimate social costs for 10 items using Meta Analysis. As a results, this study can find that shipping is the most efficient transport mode because it gives the lowest social costs among them. This study also find that the iso-cost transport distance that gives the equal social costs between the transport modes. Our methodology can be thought somewhat inferior to the Contingent Valuation Methods, however the advantage of this methodology is that we can decomposite the total social costs into item by item and can apply it to other researches.

Assessing Process and Method Improvement of Reliability Growth Test Data with Growth Rate Changing During Testing (신뢰성성장시험 중 발생한 신뢰성성장률 변화를 고려한 고장 평가과정 및 평가방법 개선에 대한 연구)

  • So, Young-Kug;Jeon, Young-Rok;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2014
  • Reliability test is focusing to detect the unexpected reliability failure and solve them for the high quality of products. The test data should be used to assess and project the current level of interesting product reliability and so it is very important to have the accurately assessing methodology with test data. There are two type of trend for test data as constant and changing one during testing and this paper shows the difference in the assessing results of these two cases. There is less information how to define the existence of reliability growth rate changing and calculate the parameters of the reliability growth models to make an accurate assessment with such condition, so i established the process and mathematical model to calculate the parameters at such condition to make reliability growth curve with high Goodness of Fit. I validated the new method with the data made from Monte Carlo Simulation and case from Demko (1993). Even the assessed result with the new methodology may be different with the case by case because of very diversity in test condition and testing product quality, but the process and method founded in this research can be applied to any case using Duane and AMSAA model for their test data assessment. I also present the evaluation method to see the effectiveness with new one which is a conventional knowledge and not popular to use, so it is possible to compare the results with the newly presented and conventional method for better business decision.

Estimation of the Level of Sustainable Development in Kazakhstan Regions and Recommendation for its Increase

  • Baimukhamedova, Gulzada S.;Nurlanova, Nailya K.;Akhmetova, Sharzada
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate existing world economic science theories and concepts of sustainable development as well as create original system of criteria and indicators to assess potential and conditions for sustainable development from a regional perspective and based on the above justify proposals for public authorities to improve methods of economic regulation for regional development. To achieve the goal evolution process of existing theories and concepts of sustainable development and "green growth" have been studied in terms of its adaptation to the spatial development of Kazakhstan, comparative dynamics of natural resources consumption in the Asia-Pacific region and Kazakhstan were investigated as well. Methodology. World best theory and practice methods for assessment of the level of sustainable development of the country and some of its territories were also studied. We selected the best system of criteria and indicators for assessment of economic, social and environmental sustainability of regional systems. Methods offered in this article are based on traditional and new factors of economic development and conditions for operation of regional systems. Indicators are chosen with a glance to basic goals for future development of regions in Kazakhstan. It is recommended to use two levels of methodology offered by author, namely national and regional, and at the local level later (districts, municipalities, cities). The results. Method offered by the author has been tested based on materials and statistics of regions in Kazakhstan. Suitability and usability of the proposed system of criteria and indicators for measuring of economic, social and environmental sustainability of regional systems was proved. Based on this analysis it was found out that there are regions in Kazakhstan that differ from each other by most of key indicators of sustainable regional development and this tendency is increasing. Conclusions and recommendations. As a result of this analysis, the authors have substantiated a number of proposals on methods of analysis to be used, improvement of methods of regional development, implementation of institutional reforms, as well as improvement of regional statistics. This article provides recommendations that can be successfully used in the management practices by public authorities to implement a new regional strategy focused on sustainable development in future.

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