• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

Search Result 1,056, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

China Shocks to Korea's ICT Exports

  • Ko, Dong-Whan
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.146-163
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

The Effects of Governance on Remittances: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data

  • Cho, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.24 no.7
    • /
    • pp.29-37
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the relationship between country governance quality and worker remittances from foreign countries. Because remittances can be a source of funds for economic development and smoothing economic crises in developing countries, the related topic has been a concern for policy-makers and academic researchers. This paper divides the motives of remittances into altruistic and investment motives through existing papers, and then considers the governance quality the remittance receiving country as one of the determinants of remittances. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers whether governance quality can affect the volume of remittances, and uses altruistic and investment factors studied in the literature. To do this, a two-step approach is taken. First, the panel data are examined via pooled OLS, random effects, and Tobit estimation. Second, the paper reduces six governance indicators into one variable, Governance, using the principal component technique (PCA) for a robustness check. Findings - The main findings can be summarized as follows. The negative governance variable in the estimation results shows a lower governance quality that induces workers to send savings to their home countries. This means that a country with poor governance quality seems to have more remittance inflows from abroad. It also reveals that poor governance quality is more relevant to an altruistic motive rather than an investment motive, in general. The positive per capita GDP variable shows the investment motive for developed countries. Originality/value - Existing papers have focused on various factors related to the motives of remittances. However, governance quality effects on remittance inflows have not been fully studied so far. This paper considers governance quality in an estimation equation explicitly as one of the determinants of remittances. This area of study is needed, in theory and empirically, in order to fully understand the relationship between governance and remittances.

Estimation of Urban Traffic State Using Black Box Camera (차량 블랙박스 카메라를 이용한 도시부 교통상태 추정)

  • Haechan Cho;Yeohwan Yoon;Hwasoo Yeo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.133-146
    • /
    • 2023
  • Traffic states in urban areas are essential to implement effective traffic operation and traffic control. However, installing traffic sensors on numerous road sections is extremely expensive. Accordingly, estimating the traffic state using a vehicle-mounted camera, which shows a high penetration rate, is a more effective solution. However, the previously proposed methodology using object tracking or optical flow has a high computational cost and requires consecutive frames to obtain traffic states. Accordingly, we propose a method to detect vehicles and lanes by object detection networks and set the region between lanes as a region of interest to estimate the traffic density of the corresponding area. The proposed method only uses less computationally expensive object detection models and can estimate traffic states from sampled frames rather than consecutive frames. In addition, the traffic density estimation accuracy was over 90% on the black box videos collected from two buses having different characteristics.

Substitution Elasticity and Gains from Trade Variety in South Korea

  • Kichun Kang
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.26 no.7
    • /
    • pp.1-18
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose - Recent international studies have largely focused on measuring the welfare gains from increased trade varieties. To adequately capture the variety gains, it is of importance to estimate the elasticity of substitution between varieties of trade goods because it is one of the key parameters to determine the magnitude of the variety gains. Using the import data of South Korea, this paper shows that the elasticities vary substantially across the estimators, which affects the magnitude of the gains from trade. Design/methodology - Empirical studies working on the gains from trade variety have heavily depended on the estimation methods for the elasticity of substitution between trade varieties, developed by Feenstra (1994) and refined by Broda and Weinstein (2006). We estimate and compare the estimated elasticities for 8,945 HS 10 goods of South Korea, obtained from the three estimation methods: Feenstra's weighted least square (F-WLS), Feenstra's feasible generalized least square (F-FGLS), and Broda and Weinstein's feasible generalized least square (BW-FGLS). Findings - Using the estimated elasticities from the F-FGLS, considered as a suitable estimator, A typical Korean consumer saved 228 dollars per year by the greater access to new import varieties. This leads to gains from imported variety of 2.06% of GDP. In 2017, a typical Korean consumer would gain by 611 dollars, compared with 2000. China is the country with the largest contribution (28.4%), followed by Japan and USA. About 50% of all the welfare gains come from the imports from the three main trade partners. The Southern Asian countries are more important to the South Korean welfare gain than the Western European countries. Originality/value - Existing studies have chosen one of the methods without any criterion for the choice and then estimated the elasticities of substitution between varieties of trade goods. This paper focuses on the estimation specifications and methods as the cause of the disparity in estimated elasticities and welfare gains from trade variety. According to the Ramsey RESET and White tests, the F-FGLS estimates are relatively better compared to the F-WLS and BW-FGLS estimates. As another contribution, this paper provides the first measure of the welfare gains from trade variety for South Korea, using the estimated elasticities of substitution between trade varieties.

Analysis of On-Site Inspection Results for Establishing Cost Estimation Standards for Selective Dismantling Projects (분별해체 대가기준 수립을 위한 현장실사 결과분석)

  • Heo, June Kyu;Kim, Chang Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.555-565
    • /
    • 2024
  • The government has enacted legislation to enforce selective dismantling in order to increase the recycling of construction waste. Therefore, this study aims to propose a standard quantity per unit estimation method, crucial for determining the expenses associated with large-scale demolition projects necessary for public development, particularly in the context of extensive land development ventures. Four individual houses were thoroughly examined and tested. We surveyed the house to create a floor plan and conducted a detailed investigation of interior materials in order to propose a Standard Quantity per Unit for cost estimation of the selective dismantling work. The process encompassed precise measurement of the houses, creation of schematics, thorough scrutiny of interior materials, and division of the dismantling process into components such as ceilings, walls, and floors. The duration of each dismantling task was meticulously documented. Particular emphasis was placed on refining the methodology to accommodate factors such as window openings, thereby ensuring a heightened level of precision compared to preceding studies. The outcomes of this study are anticipated to serve as practical benchmarks for estimating costs in demolition projects, thereby fostering sustainable development within the construction industry.

Depth Map Generation Using Infocused and Defocused Images (초점 영상 및 비초점 영상으로부터 깊이맵을 생성하는 방법)

  • Mahmoudpour, Saeed;Kim, Manbae
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.362-371
    • /
    • 2014
  • Blur variation caused by camera de-focusing provides a proper cue for depth estimation. Depth from Defocus (DFD) technique calculates the blur amount present in an image considering that blur amount is directly related to scene depth. Conventional DFD methods use two defocused images that might yield the low quality of an estimated depth map as well as a reconstructed infocused image. To solve this, a new DFD methodology based on infocused and defocused images is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, the outcome of Subbaro's DFD is combined with a novel edge blur estimation method so that improved blur estimation can be achieved. In addition, a saliency map mitigates the ill-posed problem of blur estimation in the region with low intensity variation. For validating the feasibility of the proposed method, twenty image sets of infocused and defocused images with 2K FHD resolution were acquired from a camera with a focus control in the experiments. 3D stereoscopic image generated by an estimated depth map and an input infocused image could deliver the satisfactory 3D perception in terms of spatial depth perception of scene objects.

A Study on Trade Area Analysis with the Use of Modified Probability Model (변형확률모델을 활용한 소매업의 상권분석 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Jin, Chang-Beom;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.15 no.6
    • /
    • pp.77-96
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose - This study aims to develop correspondence strategies to the environment change in domestic retail store types. Recently, new types of retails have emerged in retail industries. Therefore, trade area platform has developed focusing on the speed of data, no longer trade area from district border. Besides, 'trade area smart' brings about change in retail types with the development of giga internet. Thus, context shopping is changing the way of consumers' purchase pattern through data capture, technology capability, and algorithm development. For these reasons, the sales estimation model has been shown to be flawed using the notion of former scale and time, and it is necessary to construct a new model. Research design, data, and methodology - This study focuses on measuring retail change in large multi-shopping mall for the outlook for retail industry and competition for trade area with the theoretical background understanding of retail store types and overall domestic retail conditions. The competition among retail store types are strong, whereas the borders among them are fading. There is a greater need to analyze on a new model because sales expectation can be hard to get with business area competition. For comprehensive research, therefore, the research method based on the statistical analysis was excluded, and field survey and literature investigation method were used to identify problems and propose an alternative. In research material, research fidelity has improved with complementing research data related with retail specialists' as well as department stores. Results - This study analyzed trade area survival and its pattern through sales estimation and empirical studies on trade areas. The sales estimation, based on Huff model system, counts the number of households shopping absorption expectation from trade areas. Based on the results, this paper estimated sales scale, and then deducted modified probability model. Conclusions - In times of retail store chain destruction and off-line store reorganization, modified Huff model has problems in estimating sales. Transformation probability model, supplemented by the existing problems, was analyzed to be more effective in competitiveness business condition. This study offers a viable alternative to figure out related trade areas' sale estimation by reconstructing new-modified probability model. As a result, the future task is to enlarge the borders from IT infrastructure with data and evidence based business into DT infrastructure.

Smoothing Effect in X-ray Microtomogram and Its Influence on the Physical Property Estimation of Rocks (X선 토모그램의 Smoothing 효과가 암석의 물성 예측에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Min-Hui;Keehm, Young-Seuk
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.347-354
    • /
    • 2009
  • Physical properties of rocks are strongly dependant on details of pore micro-structures, which can be used for quantifying relations between physical properties of rocks through pore-scale simulation techniques. Recently, high-resolution scan techniques, such as X-ray microtomography and high performance computers make it possible to calculate permeability from pore micro-structures of rocks. We try to extend this simulation methodology to velocity and electrical conductivity. However, the smoothing effect during tomographic inversion creates artifacts in pore micro-structures and causes inaccurate property estimation. To mitigate this artifact, we tried to use sharpening filter and neural network classification techniques. Both methods gave noticeable improvement in pore structure imaging and accurate estimation of permeability and electrical conductivity, which implies that our method effectively removes the smoothing effect in pore structures. However, the calculated velocities showed only incremental improvement. By comparison between thin section images and tomogram, we found that our resolution is not high enough, and it is mainly responsible for the inaccuracy in velocity despite the successful removal of the smoothing effect. In conclusion, our methods can be very useful for pore-scale modeling, since it can create accurate pore structure without the smoothing effect. For accurate velocity estimation, the resolution of pore structure should be at least three times higher than that for permeability simulation.

Development of methodology for daily rainfall simulation considering distribution of rainfall events in each duration (강우사상의 지속기간별 분포 특성을 고려한 일강우 모의 기법 개발)

  • Jung, Jaewon;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.52 no.2
    • /
    • pp.141-148
    • /
    • 2019
  • When simulating the daily rainfall amount by existing Markov Chain model, it is general to simulate the rainfall occurrence and to estimate the rainfall amount randomly from the distribution which is similar to the daily rainfall distribution characteristic using Monte Carlo simulation. At this time, there is a limitation that the characteristics of rainfall intensity and distribution by time according to the rainfall duration are not reflected in the results. In this study, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 4-day rainfall event are classified, and the rainfall amount is estimated by rainfall duration. In other words, the distributions of the total amount of rainfall event by the duration are set using the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), the daily rainfall in each day are estimated from the distribution of each duration. Total rainfall amount determined for each event are divided into each daily rainfall considering the type of daily distribution of the rainfall event which has most similar rainfall amount of the observed rainfall using the k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (KNN). This study is to develop the limitation of the existing rainfall estimation method, and it is expected that this results can use for the future rainfall estimation and as the primary data in water resource design.

Prediction of the Detonation Limit of the Flammable Gases and Vapors Using the Stoichiometric Coefficient (양론계수를 이용한 가연성가스와 증기의 폭굉한계 예측)

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.228-233
    • /
    • 2008
  • Detonation limit is one of the major physical properties used to determine the fire and explosion hazards of the flammable substances. In this study, the lower detonation limits (LDL) and the upper detonation limits (UDL) of the flammable substances predicted with the appropriate use of the heat of combustion and the stoichiometric coefficient. The values calculated by the proposed equations were a good agreement with literature data within a few percent. From a given results, It is to be hoped that this methodology will contribute to the estimation of the detonation limits of for other flammable substances.