• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Methodology

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Estimation of Areal Reduction Factor Using a Mixed Distribution (혼합분포를 이용한 면적감소계수의 산정)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.759-769
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    • 2004
  • This study proposes a new methodology to derive the areal reduction factor (ARF) using mixed probability density functions. Estimation of ARFs requires using the simultaneous rainfall data over the basin, which is rarely available in general. The new methodology Proposed in this study uses more available daily rainfall data during a given period, so the mixed probability density functions should be introduced to explain both the rainfall intermittency and variability. This study applied the mixed gamma distribution for the derivation of ARFs for the Keum river basin, and found that the new method is easier for application as well as it provides very comparable results.

Optimum Design Methodology of the Damped Oscillatory Impulse Current Generator Considering a Nonlinear Load (비선형 부하를 고려한 감쇠 진동형 임펄스 전류발생기의 설계 기법)

  • Chang, Sug-Hun;Lee, Jae-Bok;Shenderey, S.V.;Myung, Sung-Ho;Cho, Yuen-Gue
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.12
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    • pp.2255-2262
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a design parameter calculation methodology and its realization to construction for the damped oscillatory impulse current generator(ICG) modelled as damping factor $\alpha$. Matlab internal functions, "fzero" and "polyfit" are applied to find a which are solutions of second order nonlinear equation related with three wave parameters $T_{1},T_{2}$ and $I_{os}$. The calculation results for standard impulse current waveforms such as 4/10${\mu}s$, 8/20${\mu}s$ and 30/80${\mu}s$ show very good accuracy and this results make it possible to extend to generalization in the design of damped oscillatory lCG with any capacitor. 8/20${\mu}s$ ICG based on the calculated design circuit parameters is fabricated in consideration of the nonlinear load(MOV) variation. Comparisons of the tested waveforms with the designed estimation show error within 10% for the waveform tolerance recommended in IEC 60060-1 and IEEE std. C62.45.

Quantifying Risk Factors on Cost Performance By Characterizing Capital Facility Projects

  • Jang, Myung-Hoon;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.4 s.32
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2006
  • Risk-based estimation has been successfully introduced into the construction industry. By incorporating historical data associated with probability analysis, risk-based estimate is an effective decision support aid in considering whether to launch a particular project. The industry challenges, however, especially related with management issues, such as labor shortage, wage growth, and supply chain complexity, have often resulted in poor cost performance. The insufficient assessing the project characteristics (i.e., resource availability, project complexity, and project delivery method) can be the main reasons in the poor cost performance. Because the accuracy level of cost performance prediction can be enhanced by extensive evaluation of the subject project characteristics, a new approach for predicting cost performance in an earlier stage of a project can improve the Industry substantiality, in other words, value maximization. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new methodology in developing a risk-based estimate tool by incorporating extensive project characteristics. To do this, an extensive industry survey was conducted from both private and public sectors in building industry in Korea. In addition, significant project characteristics were identified in terms of cost performance indicator. Although the data collection is limited to Korean industry the suggested approach provides the industry with a straightforward methodology in risk management. As many researchers maintained that front-end planning efforts are crucial in achieving the successful outcome in building projects, the new method for risk-based estimation can Improve the cost performance as well as enhance the fulfillment in terms of business sustainability.

Comparing Methodology of Building Energy Analysis - Comparative Analysis from steady-state simulation to data-driven Analysis - (건물에너지 분석 방법론 비교 - Steady-state simulation에서부터 Data-driven 방법론의 비교 분석 -)

  • Cho, Sooyoun;Leigh, Seung-Bok
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Because of the growing concern over fossil fuel use and increasing demand for greenhouse gas emission reduction since the 1990s, the building energy analysis field has produced various types of methods, which are being applied more often and broadly than ever. A lot of research products have been actively proposed in the area of the building energy simulation for over 50 years around the world. However, in the last 20 years, there have been only a few research cases where the trend of building energy analysis is examined, estimated or compared. This research aims to investigate a trend of the building energy analysis by focusing on methodology and characteristics of each method. Method: The research papers addressing the building energy analysis are classified into two types of method: engineering analysis and algorithm estimation. Especially, EPG(Energy Performance Gap), which is the limit both for the existing engineering method and the single algorithm-based estimation method, results from comparing data of two different levels- in other words, real time data and simulation data. Result: When one or more ensemble algorithms are used, more accurate estimations of energy consumption and performance are produced, and thereby improving the problem of energy performance gap.

Ductility-based seismic design of precast concrete large panel buildings

  • Astarlioglu, Serdar;Memari, Ali M.;Scanlon, Andrew
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.405-426
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    • 2000
  • Two approximate methods based on mechanism analysis suitable for seismic assessment/design of structural concrete are reviewed. The methods involve use of equal energy concept or equal displacement concept along with appropriate patterns of inelastic deformations to relate structure's maximum lateral displacement to member and plastic deformations. One of these methods (Clough's method), defined here as a ductility-based approach, is examined in detail and a modification for its improvement is suggested. The modification is based on estimation of maximum inelastic displacement using inelastic design response spectra (IDRS) as an alternative to using equal energy concept. The IDRS for demand displacement ductilities are developed for a single degree of freedom model subjected to several accelerograms as functions of response modification factor (R), damping ratios, and strain hardening. The suggested revised methodology involves estimation of R as the ratio of elastic strength demand to code level demand, and determination of design base shear using $R_{design}{\leq}R$ and maximum displacement, determination of plastic displacement using IDRS and subsequent local plastic deformations. The methodology is demonstrated for the case of a 10-story precast wall panel building.

Case-based reasoning approach to estimating the strength of sustainable concrete

  • Koo, Choongwan;Jin, Ruoyu;Li, Bo;Cha, Seung Hyun;Wanatowski, Dariusz
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.645-654
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    • 2017
  • Continuing from previous studies of sustainable concrete containing environmentally friendly materials and existing modeling approach to predicting concrete properties, this study developed an estimation methodology to predicting the strength of sustainable concrete using an advanced case-based reasoning approach. It was conducted in two steps: (i) establishment of a case database and (ii) development of an advanced case-based reasoning model. Through the experimental studies, a total of 144 observations for concrete compressive strength and tensile strength were established to develop the estimation model. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the A-CBR model (i.e., 95.214% for compressive strength and 92.448% for tensile strength) performed superior to other conventional methodologies (e.g., basic case-based reasoning and artificial neural network models). The developed methodology provides an alternative approach in predicting concrete properties and could be further extended to the future research area in durability of sustainable concrete.

Market Risk Premium in Korea: Analysis and Policy Implications (한국의 시장위험 프리미엄: 분석과 시사점)

  • Se-hoon Kwon;Sang-Buhm Hahn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - This study provides an overview of existing research and practices related to market risk premiums(MRP), and empirically estimates the MRP in Korea, particularly using the related option prices. We also seek to improve the current MRP practices and explore alternative solutions. Design/methodology/approach - We present the option price-based MRP estimation method, as proposed by Martin (2017), and implement it within the context of the Korean stock market. We then juxtapose these results with those derived from other methods, and compare the characteristics with those of the United States. Findings - We found that the lower limit of the MRP in the Korean stock market shows a much lower value compared to the US. There seems to be the possibility of a market crash, exchange rate volatility, or a lack of option trading data. We investigated the predictive power of the estimated values and discovered that the weighted average of the results of various methodologies using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is superior to the individual method's results. Research implications or Originality - It is required to explore various methods of estimating MRP that are suitable for the Korean stock market. In order to improve the estimation methodology based on option prices, it is necessary to develop the methods using the higher-order(third order or above) moments, or consider additional risk factors such as the possibility of a crash.

A Study on Greenhouse Gas Removals Estimation of a Small Scale Afforestation/reforestation CDM Pilot Project in Goseong, Gangwon Province (강원도 고성군 소규모 신규조림/재조림 CDM 시범사업의 온실가스 감축량 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Jiyeon;Lee, Sue Kyoung;Noh, Nam Jin;Yoon, Tae Kyung;Han, Saerom;Cui, Guishan;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.3
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    • pp.398-406
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    • 2013
  • Afforestation/reforestation (A/R) clean development mechanism (CDM) is the only forestry-based activities allowed under the Kyoto protocol. This study was conducted to develop a methodology to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) removals of a small scale A/R CDM pilot project in Goseong, Gangwon Province, Korea. AR-AMS0001 was applied as a methodology and selected tree species were Pinus koraiensis, Larix kaempferi, and Betula platyphylla for total area of 75.0 ha. To improve the accuracy on the GHG removals estimation, selection of the baseline scenario and carbon pools and stratification of the project site were conducted. Based on the developed methodology, net anthropogenic GHG removals were estimated as actual net GHG removals, subtracted by baseline net greenhouse gas removals and leakage. As a result, anthropogenic GHG removals of the project were 12,415 ton $CO_2-e$ and 165.5 ton $CO_2-e/ha$. This project is the first A/R CDM in domestic site and could enhance the technical accuracy of the GHG removals estimation by using countryspecific data reflecting the site condition.

Estimation of Water Quality Improvement Benefit Using Replacement Cost Approach (대체비용법을 이용한 하천 수질개선편익 산정)

  • Yeo, Kyu-Dong;Yi, Choong-Sung;Kim, Gil-Ho;Shim, Myung-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.343-353
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the water quality improvement by water discharge through dams and to provide a benefit estimation methodology, taking domestic situation into consideration, by the replacement cost approach analyzed with a sewage treatment plant instead of an alternative dam. To this end, facility that alternates a dam must have same functions of the discharged water from the dam and the two facilities must be able to be compared objectively. To estimate the benefit, estimation methodology of alternative facility's cost is established and criteria of cost.benefit analysis that are duration period and ratio of large scale repairing expense was presented. As a case study, the water quality improvement benefit of Song-Li-Won dam was evaluated, which is planned to be built on Nae-Sung stream in Nak-Dong River system. The results of applying this methodology to Song-Li-Won dam are 644,006 million won of the annual average discharge and 1,351,526 million won of maximum discharge. The usage of the framework in this study is expected for estimation of water quality improvement benefit in case water quality improvement project is performed.

Methodology for Estimation of Link Travel Time using Density-based Disaggregated Approach (밀도기반 비집계 접근법을 이용한 구간통행시간 추정 방법론)

  • Chang, Hyunho;Lee, Soong-bong;Han, Donghee;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.134-143
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    • 2017
  • In the case of highway, there may be a large number of travel time groups when there are a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, a sleeping shelter, etc. in the corresponding section. In most of the conventional travel time estimation studies, one representative travel time (assuming normal distribution) group is assumed in the low sample collection state, and if it is out of the specified range, it is determined as outliers and then the travel time is estimated. However, if there is a bus exclusive lane, a rest area, or a sleeping shelter in the relevant section, such as the highway, the distribution of travel time will be in the form of a bi-modal or a multi-modal, rather than a regular distribution. Therefore, applying the existing estimation methodology may result in distorted results. To solve this problem, first, it should be reliable even in the case of insufficient number of samples. Second, we propose a methodology to select the representative time group among a number of time groups and to estimate the representative time using individual time data of the selected time group.