• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.22-34
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• 2023

Predicting accurately the construction cost budget in the early stages of construction projects is crucial to support the client's decision-making and achieve the objectives of the construction project. This holds true for public construction projects as well. However, the current methods for predicting construction cost budgets in the early stages of public construction projects are not sophisticated enough in terms of accuracy and reliability, indicating a need for improvement. The objective of this study is to develop a construction cost budget prediction model that can be utilized in the early stages of public building projects using an artificial neural network (ANN). In this study, an artificial neural network model was developed using the SPSS Statistics program and the data provided by the Public Procurement Service. The level of construction cost budget prediction was analyzed, and the accuracy of the model was validated through additional testing. The validation results demonstrated that the developed artificial neural network model exhibited an error range for estimates that can be utilized in the early stages of projects, indicating the potential to predict construction cost budgets more accurately by incorporating various project conditions.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.155-175
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• 2018

This study estimates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP) of and analyzes the relationship between TFP and exports for Korean manufacturing companies from 2000 to 2016. Specially, TFP is decomposed into Technical Change(TC), Technical Efficiency Change (TEC), and Sale Effect(SE), and compared between large and small enterprises. First, in the case of technical efficiency, the Korean economy has been very vulnerable to external shocks, such as the sharp decline following the 2008 financial crisis. The efficiency of the electronics, automobile, and machinery sectors is low and needs to be improved. In addition, the technological efficiency of large enterprises is higher than that of SMEs in most manufacturing sub-sectors except for non-ferrous metals. In the case of TFP, most changes are due to TC, and the effective combination of labor, capital and the effect of scale have little effect, suggesting that improvement of internal structure is urgent. In addition, volatility due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 was much larger in SMEs than in large companies, so external economic impacts are more greater for SMEs than large enterprises. The relationship between TFP decomposition factors and exports shows that TC has a positive effect only on exports of SMEs. Therefore, in order to increase exports, in the case of SMEs, R&D support to promote technological development is needed. In the case of large companies, it is necessary to establish differentiated strategies for each export market, competitor company, and item to link efficiency and scale effect of exports.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.381-397
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• 2023

The most representative design used in clinical trials is randomization, which is used to accurately estimate the treatment effect. However, comparison between the treatment group and the control group in an observational study without randomization is biased due to various unadjusted differences, such as characteristics between patients. Propensity score weighting is a widely used method to address these problems and to minimize bias by adjusting those confounding and assess treatment effects. Inverse probability weighting, the most popular method, assigns weights that are proportional to the inverse of the conditional probability of receiving a specific treatment assignment, given observed covariates. However, this method is often suffered by extreme propensity scores, resulting in biased estimates and excessive variance. Several alternative methods including trimming, overlap weights, and matching weights have been proposed to mitigate these issues. In this paper, we conduct a simulation study to compare performance of various propensity score weighting methods under diverse situation, such as limited overlap, misspecified propensity score, and treatment contrary to prediction. From the simulation results overlap weights and matching weights consistently outperform inverse probability weighting and trimming in terms of bias, root mean squared error and coverage probability.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.196-206
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• 2024

Background: Most of the biomass equations were developed using sample trees collected mainly from pan-tropical and tropical regions that may over- or underestimate biomass. Site-specific models would improve the accuracy of the biomass estimates and enhance the country's measurement, reporting, and verification activities. The aim of the study is to develop site-specific biomass estimation models and validate and evaluate the existing generic models developed for pan-tropical forest and newly developed allometric models. Total of 140 trees was harvested from each diameter class biomass model development. Data was analyzed using SAS procedures. All relevant statistical tests (normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity) were performed. Data was transformed to logarithmic functions and multiple linear regression techniques were used to develop model to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). The root mean square error (RMSE) was used for measuring model bias, precision, and accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R² and adjusted [adj]-R²), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Bayesian information Criterion was employed to select most appropriate models. Results: For the general total AGB models, adj-R² ranged from 0.71 to 0.85, and model 9 with diameter at stump height at 10 cm (DSH₁₀), ρ and crown width (CW) as predictor variables, performed best according to RMSE and AIC. For the merchantable stem models, adj-R² varied from 0.73 to 0.82, and model 8) with combination of ρ, diameter at breast height and height (H), CW and DSH₁₀ as predictor variables, was best in terms of RMSE and AIC. The results showed that a best-fit model for above-ground biomass of tree components was developed. AGB_Stem = exp {-1.8296 + 0.4814 natural logarithm (Ln) (ρD²H) + 0.1751 Ln (CW) + 0.4059 Ln (DSH₃₀)} AGB_Branch = exp {-131.6 + 15.0013 Ln (ρD²H) + 13.176 Ln (CW) + 21.8506 Ln (DSH₃₀)} AGB_Foliage = exp {-0.9496 + 0.5282 Ln (DSH₃₀) + 2.3492 Ln (ρ) + 0.4286 Ln (CW)} AGB_Total = exp {-1.8245 + 1.4358 Ln (DSH₃₀) + 1.9921 Ln (ρ) + 0.6154 Ln (CW)} Conclusions: The results demonstrated that the development of local models derived from an appropriate sample of representative species can greatly improve the estimation of total AGB.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.109-124
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• 2015

A novel approach, hybrid surface rainfall (KNU-HSR) technique developed by Kyungpook Natinal University, was utilized for improving the radar rainfall estimation. The KNU-HSR technique estimates radar rainfall at a 2D hybrid surface consistings of the lowest radar bins that is immune to ground clutter contaminations and significant beam blockage. Two HSR techniques, static and dynamic HSRs, were compared and evaluated in this study. Static HSR technique utilizes beam blockage map and ground clutter map to yield the hybrid surface whereas dynamic HSR technique additionally applies quality index map that are derived from the fuzzy logic algorithm for a quality control in real time. The performances of two HSRs were evaluated by correlation coefficient (CORR), total ratio (RATIO), mean bias (BIAS), normalized standard deviation (NSD), and mean relative error (MRE) for ten rain cases. Dynamic HSR (CORR=0.88, BIAS= $-0.24mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.41, MRE=37.6%) shows better performances than static HSR without correction of reflectivity calibration bias (CORR=0.87, BIAS= $-2.94mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.76, MRE=58.4%) for all skill scores. Dynamic HSR technique overestimates surface rainfall at near range whereas it underestimates rainfall at far ranges due to the effects of beam broadening and increasing the radar beam height. In terms of NSD and MRE, dynamic HSR shows the best results regardless of the distance from radar. Static HSR significantly overestimates a surface rainfall at weaker rainfall intensity. However, RATIO of dynamic HSR remains almost 1.0 for all ranges of rainfall intensity. After correcting system bias of reflectivity, NSD and MRE of dynamic HSR are improved by about 20 and 15%, respectively.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2014

Near surface air temperature data which are one of the essential factors in hydrology, meteorology and climatology, have drawn a substantial amount of attention from various academic domains and societies. Meteorological observations, however, have high spatio-temporal constraints with the limits in the number and distribution over the earth surface. To overcome such limits, many studies have sought to estimate the near surface air temperature from satellite image data at a regional or continental scale with simple regression methods. Alternatively, we applied various Kriging methods such as ordinary Kriging, universal Kriging, Cokriging, Regression Kriging in search of an optimal estimation method based on near surface air temperature data observed from automatic weather stations (AWS) in South Korea throughout 2010 (365 days) and MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data (MOD11A1, 365 images). Due to high spatial heterogeneity, auxiliary data have been also analyzed such as land cover, DEM (digital elevation model) to consider factors that can affect near surface air temperature. Prior to the main estimation, we calculated root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature differences from the 365-days LST and AWS data by season and landcover. The results show that the coefficient of variation (CV) of RMSE by season is 0.86, but the equivalent value of CV by landcover is 0.00746. Seasonal differences between LST and AWS data were greater than that those by landcover. Seasonal RMSE was the lowest in winter (3.72). The results from a linear regression analysis for examining the relationship among AWS, LST, and auxiliary data show that the coefficient of determination was the highest in winter (0.818) but the lowest in summer (0.078), thereby indicating a significant level of seasonal variation. Based on these results, we utilized a variety of Kriging techniques to estimate the surface temperature. The results of cross-validation in each Kriging model show that the measure of model accuracy was 1.71, 1.71, 1.848, and 1.630 for universal Kriging, ordinary Kriging, cokriging, and regression Kriging, respectively. The estimates from regression Kriging thus proved to be the most accurate among the Kriging methods compared.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.87-95
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• 2016

This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.761-774
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• 2022

Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.28-36
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• 2023

Solar radiation that is measured at relatively small number of weather stations is one of key inputs to crop models for estimation of crop productivity. Solar radiation products derived from GK-2A and Himawari 8 satellite data have become available, which would allow for preparation of input data to crop models, especially for assessment of crop productivity under an agrivoltaic system where crop and power can be produced at the same time. The objective of this study was to compare the degree of agreement between the solar radiation products obtained from those satellite data. The sub hourly products for solar radiation were collected to prepare their daily summary for the period from May to October in 2020 during which both satellite products for solar radiation were available. Root mean square error (RMSE) and its normalized error (NRMSE) were determined for daily sum of solar radiation. The cumulative values of solar radiation for the study period were also compared to represent the impact of the errors for those products on crop growth simulations. It was found that the data product from the Himawari 8 satellite tended to have smaller values of RMSE and NRMSE than that from the GK-2A satellite. The Himawari 8 satellite product had smaller errors at a large number of weather stations when the cumulative solar radiation was compared with the measurements. This suggests that the use of Himawari 8 satellite products would cause less uncertainty than that of GK2-A products for estimation of crop yield. This merits further studies to apply the Himawari 8 satellites to estimation of solar power generation as well as crop yield under an agrivoltaic system.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.5_3
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• pp.933-948
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• 2023

Atmospheric aerosols not only have adverse effects on human health but also exert direct and indirect impacts on the climate system. Consequently, it is imperative to comprehend the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols. Numerous research endeavors have been undertaken to monitor aerosols, predominantly through the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) via satellite-based observations. Nonetheless, this approach primarily relies on a look-up table-based inversion algorithm, characterized by computationally intensive operations and associated uncertainties. In this study, a novel high-resolution AOD direct retrieval algorithm, leveraging machine learning, was developed using top-of-atmosphere reflectance data derived from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager-II (GOCI-II), in conjunction with their differences from the past 30-day minimum reflectance, and meteorological variables from numerical models. The Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) technique was harnessed, and the resultant estimates underwent rigorous validation encompassing random, temporal, and spatial N-fold cross-validation (CV) using ground-based observation data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The three CV results consistently demonstrated robust performance, yielding R²=0.70-0.80, RMSE=0.08-0.09, and within the expected error (EE) of 75.2-85.1%. The Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis confirmed the substantial influence of reflectance-related variables on AOD estimation. A comprehensive examination of the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD in Seoul and Ulsan revealed that the developed LGBM model yielded results that are in close concordance with AERONET AOD over time, thereby confirming its suitability for AOD retrieval at high spatiotemporal resolution (i.e., hourly, 250 m). Furthermore, upon comparing data coverage, it was ascertained that the LGBM model enhanced data retrieval frequency by approximately 8.8% in comparison to the GOCI-II L2 AOD products, ameliorating issues associated with excessive masking over very illuminated surfaces that are often encountered in physics-based AOD retrieval processes.