• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.533-540
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• 2014

Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.233-246
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• 2023

Accurate prediction of concrete compressive strength can minimize the need for extensive, time-consuming, and costly mixture optimization testing and analysis. This study attempts to enhance the prediction accuracy of compressive strength using stacking ensemble machine learning (ML) with feature engineering techniques. Seven alternative ML models of increasing complexity were implemented and compared, including linear regression, SVM, decision tree, multiple layer perceptron, random forest, Xgboost and Adaboost. To further improve the prediction accuracy, a ML pipeline was proposed in which the feature engineering technique was implemented, and a two-layer stacked model was developed. The k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to optimize model parameters and train the stacked model. The stacked model showed superior performance in predicting concrete compressive strength with a correlation of determination (R²) of 0.985. Feature (i.e., variable) importance was determined to demonstrate how useful the synthetic features are in prediction and provide better interpretability of the data and the model. The methodology in this study promotes a more thorough assessment of alternative ML algorithms and rather than focusing on any single ML model type for concrete compressive strength prediction.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.319-330
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• 2019

Forecasting the electricity consumption through analyzing the past electricity consumption a advantageous for energy planing and policy. Machine learning is widely used as a method to predict electricity consumption. Among them, ensemble learning is a method to avoid the overfitting of models and reduce variance to improve prediction accuracy. However, ensemble learning applied to daily data shows the disadvantages of predicting a center value without showing a peak due to the characteristics of ensemble learning. In this study, we overcome the shortcomings of ensemble learning by considering the temperature trend. We compare nine models and propose a model using random forest with the linear trend of temperature.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.673-687
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• 2023

Convolutional neural network-based deep learning technology is the most commonly used in image identification, but it requires large-scale data for training. Therefore, application in specific fields in which data acquisition is limited, such as in the military, may be challenging. In particular, the identification of ground weapon systems is a very important mission, and high identification accuracy is required. Accordingly, various studies have been conducted to achieve high performance using small-scale data. Among them, the ensemble method, which achieves excellent performance through the prediction average of the pre-trained models, is the most representative method; however, it requires considerable time and effort to find the optimal combination of ensemble models. In addition, there is a performance limitation in the prediction results obtained by using an ensemble method. Furthermore, it is difficult to obtain the ensemble effect using models with imbalanced classification accuracies. In this paper, we propose a transfer learning-based feature fusion technique for heterogeneous models that extracts and fuses features of pre-trained heterogeneous models and finally, fine-tunes hyperparameters of the fully connected layer to improve the classification accuracy. The experimental results of this study indicate that it is possible to overcome the limitations of the existing ensemble methods by improving the classification accuracy through feature fusion between heterogeneous models based on transfer learning.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.193-197
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• 2005

Classification tree is one of the most suitable base learners for ensemble. For past decade, it was found that bagging gives the most accurate prediction when used with unpruned tree and boosting with stump. Researchers have tried to understand the relationship between the size of trees and the accuracy of ensemble. With experiment, it is found that large trees make boosting overfit the dataset and stumps help avoid it. It means that the accuracy of each classifier needs to be sacrificed for better weighting at each iteration. Hence, split effect in boosting can be explained with the trade-off between the accuracy of each classifier and better weighting on the misclassified points. In bagging, combining larger trees give more accurate prediction because bagging does not have such trade-off, thus it is advisable to make each classifier as accurate as possible.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.375-383
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• 2012

The purpose of the ensemble methods is to increase the accuracy of prediction through combining many classifiers. According to recent studies, it is proved that random forests and forward stagewise regression have good accuracies in classification problems. However they have great prediction error in separation boundary points because they used decision tree as a base learner. In this study, we use the kernel ridge regression instead of the decision trees in random forests and boosting. The usefulness of our proposed ensemble methods was shown by the simulation results of the prostate cancer and the Boston housing data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.217-232
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• 2021

The Korea film industry has matured and the number of movie-watching per capita has reached the highest level in the world. Since then, movie industry growth rate is decreasing and even the total sales of movies per year slightly decreased in 2018. The number of moviegoers is the first factor of sales in movie industry and also an important factor influencing additional sales. Thus it is important to predict the number of movie audiences. In this study, we predict the cumulative number of audiences of films using stacking, an ensemble method. Stacking is a kind of ensemble method that combines all the algorithms used in the prediction. We use box office data from Korea Film Council and web comment data from Daum Movie (www.movie.daum.net). This paper describes the process of collecting and preprocessing of explanatory variables and explains regression models used in stacking. Final stacking model outperforms in the prediction of test set in terms of RMSE.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.9-15
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• 2024

Tree-based algorithms have been the dominant methods used build a prediction model for tabular data. This also includes personal credit data. However, they are limited to compatibility with categorical and numerical data only, and also do not capture information of the relationship between other features. In this work, we proposed an ensemble model using the Transformer architecture that includes text features and harness the self-attention mechanism to tackle the feature relationships limitation. We describe a text formatter module, that converts the original tabular data into sentence data that is fed into FinBERT along with other text features. Furthermore, we employed FT-Transformer that train with the original tabular data. We evaluate this multi-modal approach with two popular tree-based algorithms known as, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, XGBoost and TabTransformer. Our proposed method shows superior Default Recall, F1 score and AUC results across two public data sets. Our results are significant for financial institutions to reduce the risk of financial loss regarding defaulters.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.161-168
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• 2020

Predicting outcome of the sports enables teams to establish their strategy by analyzing variables that affect overall game flow and wins and losses. Many studies have been conducted on the prediction of the outcome of sports events through statistical techniques and machine learning techniques. Predictive performance is the most important in a game prediction model. However, statistical and machine learning models show different optimal performance depending on the characteristics of the data used for learning. In this paper, we propose a new ensemble model to predict English Premier League soccer games using statistical models and the machine learning models which showed good performance in predicting the results of the soccer games and this model is possible to select a model that performs best when predicting the data even if the data are different. The proposed ensemble model predicts game results by learning the final prediction model with the game prediction results of each single model and the actual game results. Experimental results for the proposed model show higher performance than the single models.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.41-48
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• 2012

Red tide is a natural phenomenon temporary blooming harmful algal with changing sea color from normal to red, which fish and shellfish die en masse. It also give a bad influence to coastal environment and sea ecosystem. The damage of sea farming by a red tide has been occurred each year which it cost much to prevent disasters of red tide blooms. Red tide damage and prevention cost of red tide disasters can be minimized by means of prediction of red tide blooms. In this paper, we proposed the red tide blooms prediction method using ensemble train. The proposed method use the bagging and boosting ensemble train methods for enhancing red tide prediction and forecast. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a better red tide prediction performance than other single classifiers.