• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble prediction

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A Best Effort Classification Model For Sars-Cov-2 Carriers Using Random Forest

  • Mallick, Shrabani;Verma, Ashish Kumar;Kushwaha, Dharmender Singh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2021
  • The whole world now is dealing with Coronavirus, and it has turned to be one of the most widespread and long-lived pandemics of our times. Reports reveal that the infectious disease has taken toll of the almost 80% of the world's population. Amidst a lot of research going on with regards to the prediction on growth and transmission through Symptomatic carriers of the virus, it can't be ignored that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers also play a crucial role in spreading the reach of the virus. Classification Algorithm has been widely used to classify different types of COVID-19 carriers ranging from simple feature-based classification to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). This research paper aims to present a novel technique using a Random Forest Machine learning algorithm with hyper-parameter tuning to classify different types COVID-19-carriers such that these carriers can be accurately characterized and hence dealt timely to contain the spread of the virus. The main idea for selecting Random Forest is that it works on the powerful concept of "the wisdom of crowd" which produces ensemble prediction. The results are quite convincing and the model records an accuracy score of 99.72 %. The results have been compared with the same dataset being subjected to K-Nearest Neighbour, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and Decision Tree algorithms where the accuracy score has been recorded as 78.58%, 70.11%, 70.385,99% respectively, thus establishing the concreteness and suitability of our approach.

Improvement in Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation and Drought over the United States Based on Regional Climate Model Using Empirical Quantile Mapping (경험적 분위사상법을 이용한 지역기후모형 기반 미국 강수 및 가뭄의 계절 예측 성능 개선)

  • Song, Chan-Yeong;Kim, So-Hee;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.637-656
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    • 2021
  • The United States has been known as the world's major producer of crops such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Therefore, using meteorological long-term forecast data to project reliable crop yields in the United States is important for planning domestic food policies. The current study is part of an effort to improve the seasonal predictability of regional-scale precipitation across the United States for estimating crop production in the country. For the purpose, a dynamic downscaling method using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized. The WRF simulation covers the crop-growing period (March to October) during 2000-2020. The initial and lateral boundary conditions of WRF are derived from the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM), a participant model of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Long-Term Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System. For bias correction of downscaled daily precipitation, empirical quantile mapping (EQM) is applied. The downscaled data set without and with correction are called WRF_UC and WRF_C, respectively. In terms of mean precipitation, the EQM effectively reduces the wet biases over most of the United States and improves the spatial correlation coefficient with observation. The daily precipitation of WRF_C shows the better performance in terms of frequency and extreme precipitation intensity compared to WRF_UC. In addition, WRF_C shows a more reasonable performance in predicting drought frequency according to intensity than WRF_UC.

Prediction of Ship Travel Time in Harbour using 1D-Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN을 이용한 항만내 선박 이동시간 예측)

  • Sang-Lok Yoo;Kwang-Il Ki;Cho-Young Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.275-276
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    • 2022
  • VTS operators instruct ships to wait for entry and departure to sail in one-way to prevent ship collision accidents in ports with narrow routes. Currently, the instructions are not based on scientific and statistical data. As a result, there is a significant deviation depending on the individual capability of the VTS operators. Accordingly, this study built a 1d-convolutional neural network model by collecting ship and weather data to predict the exact travel time for ship entry/departure waiting for instructions in the port. It was confirmed that the proposed model was improved by more than 4.5% compared to other ensemble machine learning models. Through this study, it is possible to predict the time required to enter and depart a vessel in various situations, so it is expected that the VTS operators will help provide accurate information to the vessel and determine the waiting order.

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Students' Performance Prediction in Higher Education Using Multi-Agent Framework Based Distributed Data Mining Approach: A Review

  • M.Nazir;A.Noraziah;M.Rahmah
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2023
  • An effective educational program warrants the inclusion of an innovative construction which enhances the higher education efficacy in such a way that accelerates the achievement of desired results and reduces the risk of failures. Educational Decision Support System (EDSS) has currently been a hot topic in educational systems, facilitating the pupil result monitoring and evaluation to be performed during their development. Insufficient information systems encounter trouble and hurdles in making the sufficient advantage from EDSS owing to the deficit of accuracy, incorrect analysis study of the characteristic, and inadequate database. DMTs (Data Mining Techniques) provide helpful tools in finding the models or forms of data and are extremely useful in the decision-making process. Several researchers have participated in the research involving distributed data mining with multi-agent technology. The rapid growth of network technology and IT use has led to the widespread use of distributed databases. This article explains the available data mining technology and the distributed data mining system framework. Distributed Data Mining approach is utilized for this work so that a classifier capable of predicting the success of students in the economic domain can be constructed. This research also discusses the Intelligent Knowledge Base Distributed Data Mining framework to assess the performance of the students through a mid-term exam and final-term exam employing Multi-agent system-based educational mining techniques. Using single and ensemble-based classifiers, this study intends to investigate the factors that influence student performance in higher education and construct a classification model that can predict academic achievement. We also discussed the importance of multi-agent systems and comparative machine learning approaches in EDSS development.

A Study on the Application of Modeling to predict the Distribution of Legally Protected Species Under Climate Change - A Case Study of Rodgersia podophylla - (기후변화에 따른 법정보호종 분포 예측을 위한 종분포모델 적용 방법 검토 - Rodgersia podophylla를 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Youngjae;Hwang, Jinhoo;Jeon, Seong-woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2024
  • Legally protected species are one of the crucial considerations in the field of natural ecology when conducting environmental impact assessments (EIAs). The occurrence of legally protected species, especially 'Endangered Wildlife' designated by Ministry of Environment, significantly influences the progression of projects subject to EIA, necessitating clear investigations and presentations of their habitats. In perspective of statistics, a minimum of 30 occurrence coordinates is required for population prediction, but most of endangered wildlife has insufficient coordinates and it posing challenges for distribution prediction through modeling. Consequently, this study aims to propose modeling methodologies applicable when coordinate data are limited, focusing on Rodgersia podophylla, representing characteristics of endangered wildlife and northern plant species. For this methodology, 30 random sampling coordinates were used as input data, assuming little survey data, and modeling was performed using individual models included in BIOMOD2. After that, the modeling results were evaluated by using discrimination capacity and the reality reflection ability. An optimal modeling technique was proposed by ensemble the remaining models except for the MaxEnt model, which was found to be less reliable in the modeling results. Alongside discussions on discrimination capacity metrics(e.g. TSS and AUC) presented in modeling results, this study provides insights and suggestions for improvement, but it has limitations that it is difficult to use universally because it is not a study conducted on various species. By supporting survey site selection in EIA processes, this research is anticipated to contribute to minimizing situations where protected species are overlooked in survey results.

Development of Molecular Simulation Software for the Prediction of Thermodynamic Properties (열역학 물성 예측을 위한 분자 시뮬레이션 소프트웨어의 개발)

  • Chang, Jaee-On
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.361-366
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    • 2011
  • By using Monte Carlo simulation method we developed a new molecular simulation software which can be used to predict the thermodynamic properties of organic compounds. Starting from molecular structure and intermolecular potential function, rigorous statistical mechanical principles give a probability distribution for the behavior of a system containing many molecules, which enables us to calculate macroscopic thermodynamic properties of the system. The software developed in this work, cheMC, is based on Windows platform providing with easy access. One can efficiently administrate simulations by using an intuitive interface equipped with visualization tool and chart generation. It is expected that molecular simulations supplement the equation of state approach and will play a more important role in the study of thermodynamic properties.

Forecasting Monthly Inflow for the Storage Management of Small Dams (저수관리를 위한 댐의 월유입량 예측)

  • Jee, Yong-Geun;Kim, Sun-Joo;Kim, Phil-Shik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.85-89
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    • 2005
  • 도시발달과 인구증가로 인해 오늘날의 수자원 관리와 계획은 복잡하고 그 중요성은 더욱더 커지고 있으며, 인구와 재산의 집중현상으로 인하여 사소한 수문재해로 인해 막대한 인명과 재산피해를 초래될 수 있다. 이런 이유들로 인해 정확한 수문예측과 이를 통한 적절한 수자원 관리는 그 어느 때보다 중요한 인자로 인식되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 수문예측을 통한 소규모 댐으로의 정확한 월유입량 예측을 실시하여 실측유입량과 비교$\cdot$분석함으로서 수자원관리의 효율성을 향상시키고자 하였다. 수문예측을 위해서 확률론적 예측이 가능한 앙상블 예측기법(Ensemble Prediction Method)을 적용하였으며 과거 1968-1997년까지의 강우데이터와 수정 TANK모형을 이용하여 1998부터 2002년까지의 성주댐의 월유입량 앙상블을 생성하였다. 수문예측뿐만 아니라 유입량예측의 정확성을 향상시키기 위해 수정 TANK모형의 매개변수를 최적화기법 중의 하나인 유전자알고리즘을 이용하여 매개변수를 최적화하였으며 평창강유역과 보청천유역의 실측데이터를 이용하여 모형의 검증을 실시하였다. 또한 강우발생시 과소하게 유출량이 산정되는 것을 보완하기 위해 매개변수를 평수기와 홍수기의 구분하여 모형을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 앙상블 예측기법과 최적화된 수정 TANK모형을 이용하여 댐의 수자원을 관리한다면 효율적인 관리가 이루어 질 것으로 판단된다.

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Hadley Circulation Strength Change in Response to Global Warming: Statistics of Good Models

  • Son, Jun-Hyeok;Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.665-672
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we examine future changes in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using CMIP5 climate change simulations. The current study is an extension of a previous study by Seo et al. that used all 30 available models. Here, we select 18-23 well-performing models based on their significant internal sensitivity of the interannual HC strength variation to the latitudinal temperature gradient variation. The model projections along with simple scaling analysis show that the inter-model variability in the HC strength change is a result of the inter-model spread in the meridional temperature gradient across the subtropics for both DJF and JJA, not by the tropopause height or gross static stability change. The HC strength is expected to weaken significantly during DJF, while little change is expected in the JJA HC strength. Compared to the calculations with all model members, selected model statistics increase the linear correlation between the changes in HC strength and meridional temperature gradient by 13~23%, confirming the robust sensitivity of the HC strength to the meridional temperature gradient. Two scaling equations for the selected models predict changes in HC strength better than all-member predictions. In particular, the prediction improvement in DJF is as high as 30%. The simple scaling relations successfully predict both the ensemble-mean changes and model-to-model variations in the HC strength for both seasons.

Recent Trends of Meteorological Research in North Korea (2007-2016) - Focusing on Journal of Weather and Hydrology - (최근 10년(2007~2016년) 북한의 기상기후 연구 동향 - 기상과 수문지를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Seung-Wook;Lee, Dae-Geun;Lim, Byunghwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this research is to review recent trends in weather and climate research in North Korea. We selected North Korean journal 'Weather and Hydrology' for the last 10 years (2007-2016), and identified trends in research subject, researchers, and affiliations. Furthermore, we analyzed the major achievements and trends by research sector. Our main results are same as follows. The largest number of researches on 'modernization and informatization on prediction' have been carried out in North Korea's recent meteorological and climatological research. This could be implicated that the scope of national science policy directly affected the promotion of specific research field. Especially, North Korea was evaluated to be concentrating its efforts on numerical model research and development. The numerical model which enables very short-term (6 hours) rainfall forecast which using ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method (4D EnKF) was developed. In addition, development of automatic weather system and improvement of the data transfer system were promoted. However, the result reveals that the automated real-time data transfer system was not fully equipped yet. These results could be used as a basic data for meteorological cooperation between South and North Korea.

The First-principles View of Nanometal Alloy Catalysts

  • Ham, Hyung Chul;Hwang, Gyeong S.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2013.02a
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    • pp.129-129
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    • 2013
  • Nanometal alloy catalysts have been found to significantly increase catalytic efficiency, compared to the monometallic counterparts. This enhancement can be attributed to various alloying effects: i) the existence of uniquemixed-metal surface sites [the so called ensemble (geometric) effect]; ii) electronic state changes due to metal-metal interactions [the so called ligand (electronic) effect]; and iii) strain caused by lattice mismatch between the alloy components [the socalled strain effect]. In addition, the presence of low-coordination surface atoms and preferential exposure of specific facets [(111), (100), (110)] in association with the size and shape of nanoparticle catalysts [the so called shape-size-facet effect] can be another important factor for modifying the catalytic activity. However, mechanisms underlying the alloying effect still remain unclear owing to the difficulty of direct characterization. Computational approaches, particularly the prediction using first-principles density functional theory (DFT), can be a powerful and flexible alternative for unraveling the role of alloying effects in catalysis since those can give us quantitative insights into the catalytic systems. In this talk, I will present the underlying principles (such as atomic arrangement, facet, local strain, ligand interaction, and effective atomic coordination number at the surface) that govern catalytic reactions occurring on Pd-based alloys using the first-principles calculations. This work highlights the importance of knowing how to properly tailor the surface reactivity of alloy catalysts for achieving high catalytic performance.

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