• 제목/요약/키워드: Energy Analysis Model

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퍼지실물옵션모형을 이용한 가스하이드레이트 R&D 사업의 가치평가 (A Valuation for Gas Hydrate R&D Project Using Fuzzy Real Options Model)

  • 윤가혜;허은녕
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.217-239
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    • 2009
  • 최근 화석에너지가 가진 환경 및 고갈 문제들을 경감시킬 수 있는 에너지 자원으로서 가스하이드레이트가 주목을 받으며, 우리나라에서는 2005년부터 2014년까지 10개년 계획 하에 가스하이드레이트 개발사업을 진행하고 있다. 가스하이드레이트 개발사업은 수력원자력을 제외하면 사용 에너지의 대부분을 수입에 의존하고 있는 우리나라의 경제사회에 미치는 파급효과가 상당히 클 것으로 예상되지만, 성공여부는 불확실하다. 그러므로 사업의 가치평가를 사전에 수행하여 타당성을 제고하고, 효과적인 수행 전략을 제시하는 것이 매우 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 가스하이드레이트 개발사업의 가치평가를 수행하기 위해 퍼지위험분석을 실물옵션모형에 적용시킴으로써 기존의 방법론에서 측정하지 않았던 정보들을 포함시키고, 가치평가 결과에 나타나는 편의나 오류를 감소시키고자 하였다. 퍼지위험분석을 적용한 실물옵션모형은 무형요인들에 대한 판단의 모호성과 부정확성을 적당한 언어척도로 모형화함으로써 이 요인들을 명시적으로 평가하고, 재무적 성과측정치와 함께 통합될 수 있도록 해주는 장점을 가진다. 이는 의사결정자의 직관에 의해서도 부분적으로 평가가 가능하겠으나, 직관에 따른 판단은 여러 가지 요인들을 동시에 고려하여 일관성 있는 평가를 내리는 데 한계가 있을 것이다. 하지만 퍼지위험분석을 적용하면 복합적인 여러 가지 속성의 의사결정 문제가 단순화된 부분적 문제들로 분해되어 분석이 가능하게 된다. 고유가의 지속과 함께 청정에너지에 대한 시대적 요구로 인하여 에너지 자원 또는 기술 개발 사업의 필요성이 더욱더 증대되고 있다. 이 가운데 본 연구의 결과가 가스하이드레이트 개발 사업뿐 아니라, 향후 에너지 산업과 관련된 정책의사결정에 하나의 가이드라인을 제시할 수 있으리라 기대된다.

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최적화기법을 이용한 기존 농업용 저수지에서의 부존 수력발전량 추정 (Optimization Technique for Estimation of Potential Hydroelectric Energy at Existion Ahricultural Reservoir)

  • 안태진;류희정;박정응
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 1999
  • 기존 농업용 댐에서의 소수력발전 사업은 기존 저수지로부터의 방류량을 효율적으로 이용함으로써 전력의 추가 확보에 기여할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존 농업용 댐에서의 부존 수력발전량을 추정하기 위하여 관개용수를 근거로 한 관개수량의 유황, 저수지 발전모의운영 및 비선형계획 모형을 적용하여 기존 농업용 저수지에서의 부존 수력발전량을 추정하였다. 비선형계획법은 소요관개용수 제약조건아래 최대발전량을 찾는 것으로 하였다. 유입량과 관개용수량이 주어진 표본 저수지에서, 채택된 방법 중 최적화 모형의 최적해에 의한 발전량이 가장 많았으며 저수지의 유입량에 관한 발전용수도 최적화 모형이 가장 많이 사용하였음을 알 수 있었다. 저수지 관리수위 상승으로 확보되는 저수량에 따른 발전량의 변화를 분석하기 위하여 연평균발전량을 추정한 결과, 관리수위 증가에 의한 발전량의 증가는 미미함을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 부존발전량 추정 절차와 최적화 모형은 기존 농업용댐의 부존 발전량 추정에 적용할 수 있으며, 소수력발전 사업 경제성분석에 필요한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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DAEM 분석 방법을 통한 국내 수입탄의 탈휘발화 반응특성 비교연구 (Application of a DAEM Method for a Comparison of Devolatilization Kinetics of Imported Coals)

  • 김량균;송주헌;이병화;장영준;전충환
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • 제48권1호
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구 목적은 두가지 종류의 국내 수입탄에 대한 열분해 반응율을 구하고 이를 비교하는 것이다. 이를 위해 TGA를 통하여 열분해 실험을 수행하였으며, 반응상수 분석은 New DAEM 방법을 이용하였다. 서로 다른 가열속도에서 각각 얻어진 TGA 질량변화 곡선으로부터, 활성화 에너지의 분포함수를 구한 후 최고빈도를 나타내는 활성화 에너지를 평균 활성화 에너지로 결정하였다. 그 결과 석탄의 종류에 따라 상기 반응에 대한 반응속도상수가 확실한 차이를 보였다. 이 같은 New DAEM 분석기법을 통해 얻은 반응상수를 적용시킨 CPD 모델을 가지고 예측한 결과가 TGA 실험치와 비교할 때보다 더 잘 일치함도 확인할 수 있었다.

Comparison of Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Building Energy Simulations in Early Design Phases: Once-at-a-time (OAT) vs. Variance-based Methods

  • Kim, Sean Hay
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: Sensitivity analysis offers a good guideline for designing energy conscious buildings, which is fitted to a specific building configuration. Sensitivity analysis is, however, still too expensive to be a part of regular design process. The One-at-a-time (OAT) is the most common and simplest sensitivity analysis method. This study aims to propose a reasonable ground that the OAT can be an alternative method for the variance-based method in some early design scenarios, while the variance-based method is known adequate for dealing with nonlinear response and the effect of interactions between input variables, which are most cases in building energy simulations. Method: A test model representing the early design phase is built in the DOE2 energy simulations. Then sensitivity ranks between the OAT and the Variance-based methods are compared at three U.S. sites. Result: Parameters in the upper rank by the OAT do not much differ from those by the Main effect index. Considering design practices that designers would chose the most energy saving design option first, this rank similarity between two methods seems to be acceptable in the early design phase.

단자엽 모델 식물의 이온화 에너지원에 따른 생리 활성 (Physiological Characterization of Mono-Cotyledonous Model Plant by Ionizing Irradiation)

  • 송미라;김선희;장덕수;강시용;김진백;김상훈;하보근;박용대;김동섭
    • 방사선산업학회지
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2011
  • The present study has been performed to compare the physiological analysis of monocot model plant (rice) in response to ionizing irradiations (cosmic-ray, gamma-ray, and Ion beam). Ionizing radiations were implanted into monocot model plant (rice) seed. After irradiation, the seeds were planted in the plastic pots for a growth period of one month. Thereafter, the morphological and physiological characteristics including malondealdehyde (MDA) and chlorophyll content, activities of antioxidant enzymes in irradiation samples were investigated. We are confirmed that the activity level of MDA and chlorophyll content were not changed by ionizing irradiation samples. However, the free radical contents were increased in all irradiated plants. And the activities of SOD, POD, and APX were significantly increased by irradiation compared with non-irradiation plant.

Updating BIM: Reflecting Thermographic Sensing in BIM-based Building Energy Analysis

  • Ham, Youngjib;Golparvar-Fard, Mani
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.532-536
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents an automated computer vision-based system to update BIM data by leveraging multi-modal visual data collected from existing buildings under inspection. Currently, visual inspections are conducted for building envelopes or mechanical systems, and auditors analyze energy-related contextual information to examine if their performance is maintained as expected by the design. By translating 3D surface thermal profiles into energy performance metrics such as actual R-values at point-level and by mapping such properties to the associated BIM elements using XML Document Object Model (DOM), the proposed method shortens the energy performance modeling gap between the architectural information in the as-designed BIM and the as-is building condition, which improve the reliability of building energy analysis. The experimental results on existing buildings show that (1) the point-level thermography-based thermal resistance measurement can be automatically matched with the associated BIM elements; and (2) their corresponding thermal properties are automatically updated in gbXML schema. This paper provides practitioners with insight to uncover the fundamentals of how multi-modal visual data can be used to improve the accuracy of building energy modeling for retrofit analysis. Open research challenges and lessons learned from real-world case studies are discussed in detail.

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신재생에너지 분야 교육과정에 대한 지・산・학・연 전문가의 요구분석 (Needs Analysis of Regional, Industrial, Academic, and Research Experts on Curriculum in the New and Renewable Energy)

  • 최지현
    • 공학교육연구
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.14-25
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to conduct a needs analysis among experts regarding the curriculum in the field of new and renewable energy for the future experts. To achieve this goal, purposive sampling was employed to select 30 experts from the reginal, industrial, academic, and research sectors in the new and renewable energy field, who participated in needs surveys and expert Delphi surveys. Needs assessments for 53 courses and suitability evaluations for 6 curriculums were conducted, and comprehensive advisory opinions were gathered. Data were analyzed using t-tests, Brich's needs assessment, the locus for focus model, and content analysis methods, with the assistance of MS Office Excel 2018 and SPSS 25.0 software. The key findings include: (a) 18 courses should be given top priority for operation, while 4 courses should be considered secondarily; (b) All 6 curriculums received positive evaluations; (c) Improvements are needed in curriculum development to cater to both generalist and specialist training needs, incorporating the acquisition of new technology and project-based learning experiences. The results of this study provide implications for the development of customized curriculums in the new and renewable energy industry.

Analysis on the Operation of a Charging Station with Battery Energy Storage System

  • Zhu, Lei;Pu, Yongjian
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.1916-1924
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    • 2017
  • Fossil oil, as the main energy of transportation, is destined to be exhausted. The electrification of transportation is a sustainable solution to the energy crisis, since electric power could be acquired from the inexhaustible sun, wind and water. Among all the problems that hinder the development of Electric Vehicle (EV) industry, charging issue might be the most prominent one. In this paper, the service process of a charging station with Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) is analyzed by means of $Cram{\acute{e}}r$ - Lundberg model which has been intensively utilized in ruin theory. The service quality is proposed in two dimensions: the service efficiency and the service reliability. The arrival rate and State of Charge (SOC) upon arrival are derived from 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). The simulations are performed to show how the service quality is determined by the system parameters such as the number of servers, the service rate, the initial capacity, the charge rate and the maximum waiting time. At last, the economic analysis of the system is conducted and the best combination of the system parameters are given.

Multi-criteria Comparative Evaluation of Nuclear Energy Deployment Scenarios With Thermal and Fast Reactors

  • Andrianov, A.A.;Andrianova, O.N.;Kuptsov, I.S.;Svetlichny, L.I.;Utianskaya, T.V.
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2019
  • The paper presents the results of a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of 12 feasible Russian nuclear energy deployment scenarios with thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. The comparative evaluation was performed based on 6 performance indicators and 5 different MCDA methods (Simple Scoring Model, MAVT / MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) in accordance with the recommendations elaborated by the IAEA/INPRO section. It is shown that the use of different MCDA methods to compare the nuclear energy deployment scenarios, despite some differences in the rankings, leads to well-coordinated and similar results. Taking into account the uncertainties in the weights within a multi-attribute model, it was possible to rank the scenarios in the absence of information regarding the relative importance of performance indicators and determine the preference probability for a certain nuclear energy deployment scenario. Based on the results of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and additional analysis of alternatives as well as the whole set of graphical and attribute data, it was possible to identify the most promising nuclear energy deployment scenario under the assumptions made.

태양열 이용 바이오메탄 분해 해석연구 (Simulation Analysis of Bio-Methane Decomposition Using Solar Thermal Energy)

  • 김하늘;이상남;이상직;김종규
    • 신재생에너지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the optical properties, heat transfer capabilities and chemical reaction performance of a methane thermal decomposition reactor using solar heat as a heat source were numerically analyzed on the basis of the cavity shape. The optical properties were analyzed using TracePro, a Monte Carlo ray tracing-based program, and the heat transfer analysis was performed using Fluent, a CFD program. An indirect heating tubular reactor was rotated at a constant speed to prevent damage by the heat source in the solar furnace. The inside of the reactor was filled with a porous catalyst for methane decomposition, and the outside was insulated to reduce heat loss. The performance of the reactor, based on cavity shape, was calculated when solar heat was concentrated on the reactor surface and methane was supplied into the reactor in an environment with a solar irradiance of 700 W/㎡, a wind speed of 1 m/s, and an outdoor temperature of 25℃. Thus, it was confirmed that the heat loss of the full-cavity model decreased to 13% and the methane conversion rate increased by 33.5% when compared to the semi-cavity model.