• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제97권2호
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• pp.140-143
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• 2008

This study compared the plywood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and vector autoregressive models using Korean data. The econometric model of plywood demand was specified with three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area, dummy. The vector autoregressive model was specified with lagged endogenous variable, own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in plywood consumption in the late 1990's. The prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Theil's Inequality Coefficient. The results showed that the plywood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by vector autoregressive model.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권2호
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• pp.203-208
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• 2006

This study compared the roundwood demand prediction accuracy of econometric and time-series models using Korean data. The roundwood was divided into softwood and hardwood by species. The econometric model of roundwood demand was specified with four explanatory variables; own price, substitute price, gross domestic product, dummy. The time-series model was specified with lagged endogenous variable. The dummy variable reflected the abrupt decrease in roundwood demand in the late 1990's in the case of softwood roundwood, and the boom of plywood export in the late 1970's in the case of hardwood roundwood. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated on the basis of Residual Mean Square Errors(RMSE). The results showed that the softwood roundwood demand prediction can be performed more accurately by econometric model than by time-series model. However, the hardwood roundwood demand prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using econometric and time-series model.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제95권5호
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• pp.601-604
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• 2006

This study compared the accuracy of partial multivariate and vector autoregressive models for lumber demand prediction in Korea. The partial multivariate model has three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the boom of lumber demand in 1988, and the abrupt decrease in 1998. The VAR model consists of two endogenous variables, lumber demand and construction permit area with one lag. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated by Root Mean Squared Error. The results showed that the estimation by partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model showed similar explanatory power, and the prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.47-53
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• 2016

Purpose - The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationships among Advertising Cost (AD), Newly Registered Users(NRU), and Buying Users(BU) of Social Network Game(SNG). SNG is getting pervasive mainly due to the rapid growth of mobile game and Social Network Service(SNS). It would be helpful for marketing researchers interested in SNG and related practitioners to understand the changes in AD, NRU, and BU with time as well as the effects on one another in mutual and dynamic way. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - Necessary data were collected from Social Network Game(SNG) company. AD, NRU, and BU are endogenous variables, but new event such as launching (event) and holidays(holiday) are exogenous dummy variables. Vector Auto regression (VAR) model is generally used to examine and capture the dynamic relationships among endogenous variables. VAR model can easily capture dynamic and endogenous relationships among time-series variables. Vector Auto regression with Exogenous variables(VARX) is a model in which exogenous variables are added to VAR. To investigate this study, VARX is applied. Result - By estimating the VARX model, the author finds that the past periods' NRU affect negatively and significantly the present AD, and past periods' BU have a positive and significant impact on the increase of AD. In addition, the author shows that the past periods' AD and BU have a positive and significant effect on the increase of NRU, and the past periods' AD affect positively and significantly BU. While the impact of AD on NRU happens after 3 or 4 days (carryover effect), that of AD on BU comes about within just 1 or 2 days (immediate effect). The effect of BU on NRU can be considered as word of mouth (WOM effect). Therefore, SNG companies can obtain not only the growth of revenue but also the increase of NRU by increasing BU. Through those results, the author can also find that there are significant interactions between endogenous variables. Conclusion - This study intends to investigate endogenous and dynamic relationships between AD, NRU, and BU. They also give managerial implications to practitioners for SNS and SNG firms. Through this study, it is found that there exist significant interactions and dynamic relationships between those three endogenous variables. The results of this study can have meaningful implications for practitioners and researchers of SNG. This research is unique in that it deals with "actual" field data and intend to find "actual" relationships among variables unlike other related existing studies which intend to investigate psychological factors affecting the intention of game usage and the intention of purchasing game items. This study is also meaningful by showing that the increase of BU can be a good strategy for "killing birds with one stone" (i.e., revenue growth and NRU increase). Although there are some limitations related with future research topics, this research contributes to the current research on SNG marketing in the above mentioned ways.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.45-54
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• 2011

This paper develops a recursive multinomial probit model and describes its estimation method. The recursive multinomial probit model is an extension of a recursive bivariate probit model. The main difference between the two models is that a single decision among two or more alternatives can be considered in each choice equation in the proposed model. The recursive multinomial probit model is developed based on a standard framework of the multinomial probit model and a Bayesian approach with a Gibbs sampling is adopted for the estimation. The simulation exercise with artificial data sets is showed that the model performed well. Since the recursive multinomial probit model can be applied to analyze the causal relationship between discrete dependent variables with more than two outcomes, the model can play an important role in extending the methodology of the causal relationship analysis in innovation research.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.48-64
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• 2021

Purpose - This study examined the effect of tariff cuts on productivity in Korea's manufacturing industries and the effect of initial productivity level before tariff cuts on productivity improvement after tariff cuts. We also attempted to identify whether import-driven or export-driven factors are more important for productivity improvement, especially in low productivity industries. Design/methodology - Since tariff reduction is a policy decision that can affect cross-industry, its impact is spread across all industries beyond the scope of a single firm through the input and output network of industry structure. Accordingly, we proposed a new method to measure the change in productivity to reflect the impact of tariff cuts across industries. Through an Armington CGE analysis, changes in endogenous variables can be directly measured after the exogenous shock of tariff reduction, and the amount of movements in productivity triggered by tariff cuts can also be calculated. We can thus assess the effectiveness of exogenous policy, such as tariff cuts, through the difference between the benchmark and counterfactual values of endogenous variables. Findings - This study confirmed that tariff reduction positively affected productivity improvement in Korea's manufacturing industries. It also confirmed that productivity gains occur in Korea's leading export industries. Finally, greater productivity gains were recorded in the group with additional high-export-share or high-import-share conditions for low productivity industries. These results are, in a limited sense, consistent with the existing studies that emphasize the importance of exports and imports on productivity improvement, especially for low productivity industries. Originality/value - The results of our experiments are different from those of non-CGE studies, which measure the industry-level change in productivity with dummy coefficients, in terms of directly calculating the amount of change in productivity. In addition, we propose that the Armington CGE model is more appropriate than the Melitz CGE model to directly measure the productivity after tariff cuts. This is because the Melitz CGE model assumes the given specific productivity density, which does not change after an overall drop of tariffs. To the best of our knowledge, this approach to directly calculating productivity by reflecting the impact of tariff reduction across industries through CGE analysis, is unprecedented in this literature.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.236-259
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• 2006

본 연구는 기업의 자체 연구개발 활동과 외부 기술획득이 대체관계인지 보완관계인지를 실증적으로 검증하고자 한다. 구체적으로, 2002년 한국의 제조업을 대상으로 조사된 기술혁신조사를 바탕으로 구축된 자료를 사용하고, 준구조적(semi-structural) 실증분석모형의 개발하였다 . 이 모형을 헤크만(Heckman)의 2단계 추정방법으로 실증 분석한 결과, 기업의 연구개발 활동과 기술획득은 보완관계를 갖고 있으며, 기업의 연구개발에 영향을 마치는 여러 요인들 중 정부의 연구개발 지원 정책과 대기업 계열사 여부가 긍정적인 영향을 보이며, 기술획득에는 실패한 프로젝트의 존재가 중요한 요인으로 추정되었다.