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Building a Korean Sentiment Lexicon Using Collective Intelligence (집단지성을 이용한 한글 감성어 사전 구축)

  • An, Jungkook;Kim, Hee-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2015
  • Recently, emerging the notion of big data and social media has led us to enter data's big bang. Social networking services are widely used by people around the world, and they have become a part of major communication tools for all ages. Over the last decade, as online social networking sites become increasingly popular, companies tend to focus on advanced social media analysis for their marketing strategies. In addition to social media analysis, companies are mainly concerned about propagating of negative opinions on social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter, as well as e-commerce sites. The effect of online word of mouth (WOM) such as product rating, product review, and product recommendations is very influential, and negative opinions have significant impact on product sales. This trend has increased researchers' attention to a natural language processing, such as a sentiment analysis. A sentiment analysis, also refers to as an opinion mining, is a process of identifying the polarity of subjective information and has been applied to various research and practical fields. However, there are obstacles lies when Korean language (Hangul) is used in a natural language processing because it is an agglutinative language with rich morphology pose problems. Therefore, there is a lack of Korean natural language processing resources such as a sentiment lexicon, and this has resulted in significant limitations for researchers and practitioners who are considering sentiment analysis. Our study builds a Korean sentiment lexicon with collective intelligence, and provides API (Application Programming Interface) service to open and share a sentiment lexicon data with the public (www.openhangul.com). For the pre-processing, we have created a Korean lexicon database with over 517,178 words and classified them into sentiment and non-sentiment words. In order to classify them, we first identified stop words which often quite likely to play a negative role in sentiment analysis and excluded them from our sentiment scoring. In general, sentiment words are nouns, adjectives, verbs, adverbs as they have sentimental expressions such as positive, neutral, and negative. On the other hands, non-sentiment words are interjection, determiner, numeral, postposition, etc. as they generally have no sentimental expressions. To build a reliable sentiment lexicon, we have adopted a concept of collective intelligence as a model for crowdsourcing. In addition, a concept of folksonomy has been implemented in the process of taxonomy to help collective intelligence. In order to make up for an inherent weakness of folksonomy, we have adopted a majority rule by building a voting system. Participants, as voters were offered three voting options to choose from positivity, negativity, and neutrality, and the voting have been conducted on one of the largest social networking sites for college students in Korea. More than 35,000 votes have been made by college students in Korea, and we keep this voting system open by maintaining the project as a perpetual study. Besides, any change in the sentiment score of words can be an important observation because it enables us to keep track of temporal changes in Korean language as a natural language. Lastly, our study offers a RESTful, JSON based API service through a web platform to make easier support for users such as researchers, companies, and developers. Finally, our study makes important contributions to both research and practice. In terms of research, our Korean sentiment lexicon plays an important role as a resource for Korean natural language processing. In terms of practice, practitioners such as managers and marketers can implement sentiment analysis effectively by using Korean sentiment lexicon we built. Moreover, our study sheds new light on the value of folksonomy by combining collective intelligence, and we also expect to give a new direction and a new start to the development of Korean natural language processing.

Some Issues on China General Aviation Legislation (中國通用航空立法若干問題研究)

  • Shuang, Luan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.99-143
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    • 2016
  • General aviation and air transport are two wings of the civil aviation industry. Chinese air transport is developing rapidly, and has become the world second air transport system only second to US since 2005. However, Chinese civil aviation is far behind the world average level, and cannot meet requirements of economic construction and social development. The transition and structural adjustment of Chinese economy provide the general aviation with a unprecedented broad market. The prospect of general aviation is promising and anticipated. The development of general aviation industry needs the legislative supports, and the current legislative conditions of Chinese general aviation are undoubtedly far behind the realistic requirements. Accelerating the legislation in Chinese general aviation industry requires scientific legislation concept. First, Legislation must promote development of general aviation industry. The general aviation will serves as a Chinese emerging industry that boosts domestic demand, promotes employment and expedite domestic economic development. We should, based on both the concept of promoting the industrial development of general aviation and national industrial planning, enact and rectify relative laws and regulations. And we should also straighten out the relationship between aviation security and industrial development and promote the revolution of low-altitude airspace management in an all-round way, in order to improve the utilization rate of airspace resources, classify and establish airspace, simplify examination and approval procedure and intensify operation management. In addition, what we should do is to expedite the infrastructure layout construction, guide the differentiated but coordinated development of general aviation industries in various areas, establish a united supervision mechanism of general aviation, redistrict the responsibilities of Chinese Air Control Agency and set up legislation, law enforcement and judicial systems with clarified institutions, clear positioning and classified responsibilities, so as to usher in a new era of the legislative management of Chinese general aviation industry. Second, shift the focus from regulations to both regulations and services. Considering the particularity of the general aviation, we should use American practices for reference and take into account both regulation and service functions when enacting general aviation laws. For example, we should reduce administrative licensing and market supervision, and adopt "criteria" and "approval" management systems for non-commercial and commercial aviation. Furthermore, pay attention to social benefits. Complete social rescuing mechanism through legislation. It should be clarified in legislation that general aviation operators should take the responsibilities of, and ensure to realize social benefits of environmental protection and ecological balance .Finally, rise in line with international standards. Modify Chinese regulations which is inconsistent with international ones to remove barriers to international cooperation. Specify basic legislative principles. One is the principle of coordination. Realize coordination between the civil aviation and general aviation, between military aviation and civil aviation, and among departments. Two is the principle of pertinence. The general aviation has its own rules and specialties, needing to be standardized using specialized laws and regulations. Three is the principle of efficiency. To realize time and space values of general aviation, we should complete rules in aerospace openness, general aviation airport construction, general aviation operations, and regulation enforcement. Four is the principle of security. Balance the maximum use of resources of Chinese airspace and the according potential threats to Chinese national interests and social security, and establish a complete insurance system which functions as security defense and indemnificatory measure. Establish a unified legal system. Currently, the system of Chinese general aviation laws consists of national legislation, administrative laws and regulations and civil aviation regulations (CAR). Some problems exist in three components of the system, including too general content, unclear guarantee measures, incomplete implementation details, and lacking corresponding pertinence and flexibility required by general aviation regulations, stringency of operation management and standards, and uniformity of standards. A law and regulation system, centered on laws and consisting of administrative laws regulations, industrial regulations, implementation details, industrial policies and local laws and regulations, should be established. It is suggested to modify the Civil Aviation Law to make general aviation laws complete, enact the Regulations of General Aviation Development, and accelerate the establishment, modification and abolition of Chinese general aviation laws to intensify the coordination and uniformity of regulations.

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Location-Based Smartphone Applications: An Application of the Privacy Calculus Model (스마트폰 위치기반 어플리케이션의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산 모형의 적용)

  • Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.7-29
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    • 2012
  • Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

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A Study about the Direction and Responsibility of the National Intelligence Agency to the Cyber Security Issues (사이버 안보에 대한 국가정보기구의 책무와 방향성에 대한 고찰)

  • Han, Hee-Won
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.39
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    • pp.319-353
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    • 2014
  • Cyber-based technologies are now ubiquitous around the glob and are emerging as an "instrument of power" in societies, and are becoming more available to a country's opponents, who may use it to attack, degrade, and disrupt communications and the flow of information. The globe-spanning range of cyberspace and no national borders will challenge legal systems and complicate a nation's ability to deter threats and respond to contingencies. Through cyberspace, competitive powers will target industry, academia, government, as well as the military in the air, land, maritime, and space domains of our nations. Enemies in cyberspace will include both states and non-states and will range from the unsophisticated amateur to highly trained professional hackers. In much the same way that airpower transformed the battlefield of World War II, cyberspace has fractured the physical barriers that shield a nation from attacks on its commerce and communication. Cyberthreats to the infrastructure and other assets are a growing concern to policymakers. In 2013 Cyberwarfare was, for the first time, considered a larger threat than Al Qaeda or terrorism, by many U.S. intelligence officials. The new United States military strategy makes explicit that a cyberattack is casus belli just as a traditional act of war. The Economist describes cyberspace as "the fifth domain of warfare and writes that China, Russia, Israel and North Korea. Iran are boasting of having the world's second-largest cyber-army. Entities posing a significant threat to the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure assets include cyberterrorists, cyberspies, cyberthieves, cyberwarriors, and cyberhacktivists. These malefactors may access cyber-based technologies in order to deny service, steal or manipulate data, or use a device to launch an attack against itself or another piece of equipment. However because the Internet offers near-total anonymity, it is difficult to discern the identity, the motives, and the location of an intruder. The scope and enormity of the threats are not just focused to private industry but also to the country's heavily networked critical infrastructure. There are many ongoing efforts in government and industry that focus on making computers, the Internet, and related technologies more secure. As the national intelligence institution's effort, cyber counter-intelligence is measures to identify, penetrate, or neutralize foreign operations that use cyber means as the primary tradecraft methodology, as well as foreign intelligence service collection efforts that use traditional methods to gauge cyber capabilities and intentions. However one of the hardest issues in cyber counterintelligence is the problem of "Attribution". Unlike conventional warfare, figuring out who is behind an attack can be very difficult, even though the Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has claimed that the United States has the capability to trace attacks back to their sources and hold the attackers "accountable". Considering all these cyber security problems, this paper examines closely cyber security issues through the lessons from that of U.S experience. For that purpose I review the arising cyber security issues considering changing global security environments in the 21st century and their implications to the reshaping the government system. For that purpose this study mainly deals with and emphasis the cyber security issues as one of the growing national security threats. This article also reviews what our intelligence and security Agencies should do among the transforming cyber space. At any rate, despite of all hot debates about the various legality and human rights issues derived from the cyber space and intelligence service activity, the national security should be secured. Therefore, this paper suggests that one of the most important and immediate step is to understanding the legal ideology of national security and national intelligence.

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Ecological variation between two populations of Thecodiplosis japonensis uchida et Inouye in Korea (솔잎혹파리 두 집단간(集團間)의 생태변이(生態變異))

  • Hwang, Yu Chul;Yim, Kyong Bin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.79 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 1990
  • This study was performed to find differences in phototaxis response of the larva, adult emergence, sex ratio and gall formation rate of Thecodiplosis japonensis Uchida et Inouye between two areas, north and south. Larvae from these two areas, Hweng-sung in north and Moo-an in south, both considered to be the sities of severe outbreak of the insect recently, were collected from the floor and transported to the entomology larboratory, Won-Kwang University in Iri, then overwintered. These larvae were used for various experimental purposes on various dates. The following results were obtained. 1. The sizes of larvae reached 2.45 in length, 0.70 in width for north, and 2.50 in length, 0.72 in width for sourth. It seems that the differents were not significant. 2. It is known that Leaving gall of larvae to the ground for the hibernation usually occurs on rainy days. For the larvae dispersion, the phototaxis response of the larvae was hypothesized. To check this, the author manipulated some different illumination intensities adjusting the distance between the glass tube in which 100 larvae were contained and electric bulb. The glass tubes were blackened all but except a small portion. The phototaxis responses between two areas seemed to be different particularly at low light intensities, 45, 145 and 1000 lux, The larvae from north assembled to the clear portion of the glass tube were more than 30 out of 100, however less than 30 in south sample regardless of the time passage. In either cases, the saturation points came after about 8 to 10 hours. If temperature units were used, the phototaxis curve= after 1 hour illumination between two areas provided significant differences. 3. The adult emergence of south area was lagged 10 days later than that of north area. The accumulated effective day-degrees of temperature for adult emergence were $934^{\circ}C$ for north area and $1180^{\circ}C$ for south area. The emerging duration of north area appeared to be in late May through the early of July and the peak emergence occurred in middle June that was approximately 15days earlier than that of south area. The sex ratio of female to male, regardless of area, was approximately 3 : 1. 4. The rates of gall formation of the red pine(Pinus densiflora Siebold et Zuccarini), 6-year-old seedlings, were as low as 9.94% for north area and 8.87% for south area. Through the close observation, the author presumed that the population reduction was greatly affected during the prepupa stage by relative moisture content and predators, such as spiders and ants presented on the ground.

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An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Human/Posthuman Discourses Emerging From Cybernetics and Artificial Intelligence Technology (4차 산업혁명 시대의 사이버네틱스와 휴먼·포스트휴먼에 관한 인문학적 지평 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.836-848
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims at providing a critical view over the cybernetics theory especially of first generation on which the artificial intelligence heavily depends nowadays. There has been a commonly accepted thought that the conception of artificial intelligence could not has been possible without being influenced by N. Wiener's cybernetic feedback based information system. Despite the founder of contemporary cybernetics' ethical concerns in order to avoid an increasing entropy phenomena(social violence, economic misery, wars) produced through a negative dynamics of the western modernity regarded as the most advanced form of humanism. In this civilizationally changing atmosphere, the newly born cybernetic technology was thus firmly believed as an antidote to these vices deeply rooted in humanism itself. But cybernetics has been turned out to be a self-organizing, self-controlling mechanical system that entails the possibility of telegraphing human brain (which are transformed into patterns) through the uploading of human brain neurons digitalized by the artificial intelligence embedded into computing technology. On this background emerges posthuman (or posthumanism) movement of which concepts have been theorized mainly by its ardent apostles like N. K. Hayles, Neil Bedington, Laurent Alexandre, Donna J. Haraway. The converging of NBIC Technologies leading to the opening of a much more digitalizing society has served as a catalyst to promote the posthuman representations and different narratives especially in the contemporary visual arts as well as in the study of humanities including philosophy and fictional literature. Once Bruno Latour wrote "Modernity is often defined in terms of humanism, either as a way of saluting the birth of 'man' or as a way of announcing his death. But this habit is itself modern, because it remains asymmetrical. It overlooks the simultaneous birth of 'nonhumaniy' - things, or objects, or beasts, - and the equally strange beginning of a crossed-out God, relegated to the sidelines."4) These highly suggestive ideas enable us to better understand what kind of human beings would emerge following the dazzlingly accelerating advancement of artificial intelligence technology. We wonder whether or not this newly born humankind would become essentially Homo Artificialis as a neuronal man stripping off his biological apparatus. However due to this unprecedented situation humans should deal with enormous challenges involving ethical, metaphysical, existential implications on their life.

Effects of Live Commerce and Show Host Attributes on Purchase Intention: Including the Mediating Effects of Content Flow (라이브 커머스 및 쇼 호스트 특성이 구매의도에 미치는 영향: 콘텐츠 몰입의 매개효과를 포함하여)

  • Kim, Sung Jong;Heo, Chul Moo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2021
  • Due to the development of mobile devices and streaming technology, many changes in consumption patterns have appeared. In addition, social impact is becoming an era of non-face-to-face consumption due to the panthermic environment of COVID-19. Accordingly, in line with the non-face-to-face consumption trend, we focused on the importance of live commerce, which is emerging as a new distribution channel, and tried to investigate the causal relationship that the characteristics of live commerce and show hosts have on purchase intention. The respondents of this study were 235 general adults of live commerce users. Interaction, economics, entertainment as the characteristics of live commerce and attractiveness, professionality, and awareness as the characteristics of show hosts were set as independent variables. Purchase intention was set as the dependent variable, and content flow was set as the mediating variable. As a result of the study, it was found that the characteristics of live commerce such as Interaction, economics, entertainment, and the characteristics of show hosts such as attractiveness, professionality, and awareness all had a positive (+) significant effect on purchase intention. The impact was shown in the following order: entertainment of live commerce, awareness, attractiveness, professionality of show hosts, economics, interaction of live commerce. In addition, the results of the mediating effect of content flow on purchase intention are as follows. Content flow was found to play a mediating role between interaction, entertainment, attractiveness, professionality, awareness and purchase intention. On the other hand, economics was analyzed to have no mediating effect. The implications of this study are as follows. Companies and show hosts that sell products in live commerce should sell products that can inspire consumers rather than simply sell products. In addition, it is considered that content that provides entertainment and attractions gives pleasure to consumers. If not only a well-recognized show host, but also people with high recognition in various fields such as influencers and creators, become show hosts, consumers' content flow and purchase intentions will increase. And vendors must offer interesting content development and reasonable prices. Show hosts need to focus on active communication with consumers.

A Study on the Utilization of Naval Personnel According to Characteristics of New Generations: Discussion from the Perspective of Generation Z, a Newly Emerging Generation (신세대의 특성에 따른 해군 인력 활용의 과제 - 또 다른 신세대, Z세대 관점에서의 고찰)

  • Min, Seung-Un;Kim, Seong-Yeol
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.57-82
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this treatise is to explore the limitations of the current navy manpower utilization system and the ways to improve it from the perspective of Generation Z. As Generation Z, following Millennials, has finally come of age, this new group is constituting a gradually greater proportion of military personnel. Due to the typical characteristics of naval operations, the harmony between Millennials and Generation Z, which is differentiated from Generation X in view of dispositions and traits, is one of the essential issues to be discussed. Generally, in a naval vessel, there are numerous pieces of equipment necessary to carry out a wide range of missions and a large number of crew members who operate them with consistent levels of fighting power. This is all while members are living together within the narrow space throughout the 24 hours of each day. Under such particular circumstances, any inter-generational conflicts may have a disruptive effect on the successful accomplishment of naval missions. Currently, new generations of military personnel are facing social difficulties in different aspects compared with the previous generations, and also have different viewpoints on the military. In this regard, in order to foster true harmony between generations, it is considered necessary to take a closer look at the inter-generational differences from their respective standpoints and to examine whether the military organization has taken adequate steps to respond to such changes. Accordingly, Chapters 1 and 2 cover the environments in which Millennials and Generation Z were raised during their childhood to young adulthood, which are distinct from those of older generations, their viewpoints formed based on such backgrounds, and the need to resolve various conflicts between generations. In Chapter 3, the current actions taken by overseas military powers to enhance the coexistence with Generation MZ are analyzed to find the significant implications they had. Chapter 4 examines the operation environments specific to the navy; identifies the potential barriers to achieving harmony between generations by assessing the current status of personnel utilization in the Korean navy in terms of the seaman, petty officer, and the officer, as well as policy; and outlines the solutions to drive harmony. Finally, Chapter 5 emphasizes the need to establish a genuine empathy between generations based on the understanding of unique inter-generational characteristics. This section also discusses the importance of addressing difficulties in utilizing technology-centered naval manpower, and forecasts a scenario of a naval organization that resolves the problem of utilizing naval personnel and the inter-generational conflicts in the future.

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A Study on the Variation of River Vegetation by Seasonal Precipitation Patterns (계절별 강수 패턴에 따른 하천 식생 변화 양상 연구)

  • Hee-Jeong JEONG;Seung-Yeon YU;Eun-Ji CHO;Yong-Joo JI;Yong-Suk KIM;Hyun-Kyung OH;Jong-Sung LEE;Hyun-Do JANG;Dong-Gil CHO
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, excessive vegetation in rivers made up of sand and gravel is emerging as a nationwide problem, which is attributed to increased spring precipitation and decreased annual precipitation. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of identifying the effect of changes in precipitation patterns on river vegetation in Namcheon, Gyeongju, and analyzing the area of vegetation and ecological characteristics. As a result of the study, the amount of monthly precipitation in the summer of Namcheon decreased after 2007, and the area of vegetation increased continuously compared to the area of the sandbank. The proportion of naturalized plants increased steadily when precipitation continued to a level that did not cause flooding, but the area occupied by naturalized plants was small. Also, when the water level is maintained, the species diversity is low due to the dominance of a single species, and the dominant species was mainly native plants. Dominance of native plants inhibited the growth of naturalized plants, but the vegetation area increased even more. Therefore, it is necessary to manage the spread of vegetation itself rather than the division of native plants and naturalized plants in order to eliminate the active growth and prosperity of river vegetation. High water levels and continuous flooding caused by torrential rains in summer disturbed the plant communities, and vegetation formed afterwards was mainly native plants. Such flooding in river ecosystems is a positive factor for the emergence of native plants and over-formed vegetation communities, so it should be considered when establishing a vegetation management plan.

New Normality in the Asia-Pacific Region: Beijing between Moscow and Washington (Новая нормальность в АТР: Пекин между Москвой и Вашингтоном)

  • Sergey A. Lukonin;Sung Hoon Jeh
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.229-258
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    • 2023
  • For the main countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States, China and Russia, a situation of "new normality" is emerging. Moreover, for each of the countries, this "new normality" has its own meaning. For the United States, this is an aggravation of the military confrontation with China in the Taiwan Strait. For China, this is an increase in the degree of rivalry with the United States and a slowdown in the pace of economic development with a very high probability of their decline in the future. For Russia, this is an almost complete curtailment of relations with the United States against the background of a special military operation and imposed sanctions. These nuances, in addition to the results of the 20th CPC Congress, will determine the main trends in Sino-American and Sino-Russian relations. It seems that China's attitude towards Russia will not change against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will maintain a position of "benevolent neutrality" towards Moscow. At the same time, the balance between "goodwill" and "neutrality" may vary depending on the scope of Sino-Russian cooperation. For example, in the economic sphere, Chinese companies will be afraid to cooperate with Russian partners for fear of secondary sanctions. However, in general, Russia will retain its importance for China as the strongest anti-American pole. In relations with the United States, China will continue to firmly defend its interests, while at the same time not excluding the normalization of relations with Washington in certain areas of cooperation: strategic stability, non-traditional threats, ecology, etc. In general, the decisions of the 20th CPC Congress do not allow us to say either in favor or against the idea of China's readiness to resume dialogue with the United States in the post-congress period. Sino-American relations, as noted above, have their own logic and will probably continue to develop within its framework. However, so are Sino-Russian relations. Within the framework of these logics, Beijing seems to continue to balance between the two vectors of its foreign policy. On the one hand, this is the development of bilateral cooperation with Russia in order to strengthen its own negotiating positions in the confrontation with the United States: military cooperation with an emphasis on joint exercises, political cooperation based on anti-Americanism, economic cooperation with an eye to the risks of secondary sanctions. On the other hand, it is unacceptable for China to recognize the collapse of Ukraine, the inadmissibility of a direct military clash with the United States and the extreme undesirability of further aggravation of relations with the United States on the factor of Chinese friendship with Russia.