• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1995.07b
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• pp.491-493
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• 1995

In this paper, the method of long-term load forecasting using a fuzzy neural network of which input is a fuzzy membership function value of a input variable like as GNP which is considered to affect demand of load. The proposed method was applicated in Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). The comparison with Error Back-Propagation Neural Network has been shown.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.2A no.3
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• pp.95-101
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• 2002

This paper illustrates a new fuzzy effective load model for probabilistic and fuzzy production cost simulation of the load point of the composite power system. A model for reliability evaluation of a transmission system using the fuzzy set theory is proposed for considering the flexibility or ambiguity of capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines, which are subjective matter characteristics. A conventional probabilistic approach was also used to model the uncertainties related to the objective matters for forced outage rates of generators and transmission lines in the new model. The methodology is formulated in order to consider the flexibility or ambiguity of load forecasting as well as capacity limitation and overload of transmission lines. It is expected that the Fuzzy CMELDC (CoMposite power system Effective Load Duration Curve) proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems in a competitive environment in the future. The characteristics of this new model are illustrated by some case studies of a very simple test system.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.220-229
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• 1985

This paper proposes a new optimal unit commitment algorithm for the rational operation of electric power systems. Especially, the algorithm is improved by considering transmission line capacity limits and load forecasting uncertainty with the consideration of the participation factors of each units, so that the method becomes more reliable and flexible one. The transmission losses are considered by using updated penalty factors obtained from the constant matrixes of the fast decoupled load flow method, the system loads are distributed at each buses, and the several necessary operational constraints are also considered for the purpose of presenting a more practicable scheme. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been demonstrated by applying to the 23-bus model system.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.3-6
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• 2009

변압기 무선부하감시 시스템에서 30분 간격으로 계측된 부하 데이터와 GIS-AMR 데이터웨어하우스로부터 변압기 속성 및 공간적 특징을 추출하여 정확한 변압기의 부하 패턴을 예측하기 위한 시공간 패턴 마이닝 기법을 적용하였다.

• Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.32-36
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• 2000

In this study, we performed the long-term expansion planning for the conceptual design of HTS power cable in Seoul area. In Korea, underground power cable has been required gradually with increasing demand of electric power transmission density and low loss characteristics in the comparison with a conventional power cables, so we assumed that the HTS power cable is applied between the downtown area and the outskirts of the city for the large power transmission capacity. This paper is to show the effects of HTS power cables in Seoul based on the power system analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 1995.10b
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• pp.186-192
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• 1995

본 연구에서는 퍼지 클러스터링 알고리즘과 변수선택 방법을 이용하여 모델의 구조 동정을 행하고, 신경회로망의 Back-propagation 학습방법을 이용하여 파라메터동정을 행하 는 새로운 퍼지모델링 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 실제 데이터를 이용하여 전력부하예측시스템 을 설계하였으며 그 결과 타당성을 입증하였다.

• The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.44-53
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• 1994

전력 부하의 예측은 산업 활동에 있어 전력의 안정적인 공급과 생산비의 절감을 위해 대단히 중요하다. 전력 부하의 예측 방법들이 많이 연구되고 있으나 기존의 방법들은 수학적으로 복잡하고 계산 시간이 많이 소요되는 단점을 갖고 있다. 본 연구에서는 최적 규칙수를 구하는 클러스터링 알고리즘과 데이터를 2분하여 설계한 변수 선택 방법을 이용하여 모델을 간략화하는 알고리즘을 제안하였으며, CMAC을 이용한 데이터의 양·부 판별 알고리즘을 이용하므로써 노이즈의 영향을 최소화 하였다. 제안된 알고리즘을 이용하여 전력부하예측 시스템을 설계하고 분석한 결과 그 타당성을 입증하였다.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.191-198
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• 1983

This paper describes the aplication of different model which can be used for short-term load prediction. The model is based on Bohlin's approach to first develop a load profile model representing the nominal load component and the Box-Jenkins approach is used to predict residuals. An on-line algorithm using Kalman Filter and Time Series is implemented for and hour-ahead prediction. In the Kalman Filter system equation and measurement equation were fixed and parameters of Time Series were varied week after week. A set of data for Korea Electric Power Corporation from April to June 1981 was used for the evaluation of the model. As the result of this simulation 1.2% rms error was acquired.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.161-171
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• 2019

Varied methods have been researched continuously because the past as the daily maximum electricity demand expectation has been a crucial task in the nation's electrical supply and demand. Forecasting the daily peak electricity demand accurately can prepare the daily operating program about the generating unit, and contribute the reduction of the consumption of the unnecessary energy source through efficient operating facilities. This method also has the advantage that can prepare anticipatively in the reserve margin reduced problem due to the power consumption superabundant by heating and air conditioning that can estimate the daily peak load. This paper researched a model that can forecast the next day's daily peak load when considering the influence of temperature and weekday, weekend, and holidays in the Seasonal ARIMA, TBATS, Seasonal Reg-ARIMA, and NNETAR model. The results of the forecasting performance test on the model of this paper for a Seasonal Reg-ARIMA model and NNETAR model that can consider the day of the week, and temperature showed better forecasting performance than a model that cannot consider these factors. The forecasting performance of the NNETAR model that utilized the artificial neural network was most outstanding.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2006.07a
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• pp.76-77
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• 2006

본 연구를 통하여 전력수급계획에 필요한 연간 시간대별 총수요를 예측하는 산법을 개발하였다. 예측과정은 크게 평상일 예측과 특수일 예측으로 구분된다. 평상일의 경우는, 연중 최대수요가 발생하는 하절기 기상으로부터 연중 최대수요를 예측한 다음, 하향식 접근에 의해 주간-일간-시간대별 평상일 수요를 예측하며, 특수일 수요는 예측된 평상일 수요와 평상일 대비 상대계수 모형으로부터 예측한다. 예측의 정확도를 개선하기 위하여 시계열 자료에 가중치를 부여하고, 실적자료가 생길 때마다 자동으로 모형이 갱신되도록 하였으며, 수요예측 결과를 검증, 보정하기 위해 주간수요예측을 재수행할 수 있다. 또한 계획된 월간 전력량 제약에 협조하는 예측산법도 포함하였다.