• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic risk

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Does Hedging with Derivatives Affect Future Crash Risk?

  • PARK, Hyun-Young;PARK, Soo Yeon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2020
  • The study aims to investigate the relationship between hedging with derivatives and subsequent firm-level stock price crash risk. Our sample consists of KOSPI- and KOSDAQ-listed companies from 2004 to 2014. The total firm-year observation is 4,886. We find that hedging with derivatives is related to greater possibilities of crash risk. The results suggest that the complexity of economic and financial reporting for derivatives may aggravate the company's information opacity, ultimately increasing the crash risk. We contribute to the growing body of literature on hedging with derivatives. Academics and practitioners have debated on whether or not hedging enhances transparency or rather makes the information environment more opaque. Theoretical research on the role of corporate hedging on information environment shows that hedging enhances earnings informativeness. Meanwhile, pieces of anecdotal and empirical evidence show that the economic and financial reporting complexity of derivatives can harm information transparency. Our results shed light on the question of whether and how hedging with derivatives affects information environment by examining the relationship between hedging with derivatives and crash risk. Furthermore, our findings provide useful insights for policymakers and practitioners. Specifically, our results raise a need for a more transparent disclosure on corporate hedging activities with derivatives.

Does Natural Disasters Have an Impact on Poverty in East Java, Indonesia?

  • SANTOSO, Dwi Budi;AULIA, Dynda Fadhlillah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2023
  • There is a strong association between poverty levels and the probability of natural disasters. East Java, however, exhibits a distinct pattern. While the rate of poverty is declining, natural disasters are becoming more severe. Considering that East Java is an area with a high risk of natural disasters and a high poverty rate, this study aims to estimate the effect of environmental preservation and the magnitude of the impact of disasters as measured by the Disaster Risk Index (IRBI) on poverty. The 3SLS model is used on secondary data from 38 districts/cities from 2015 to 2021 as an analytical database. Based on the estimation results, there are 3 findings in this study: (i) the role of government, population development, and economic activity have a strong influence on nature conservation; (ii) nature conservation has a strong influence on disaster risk; and (iii) the disaster risk index has a strong effect on poverty. As a result, areas with a high level of disaster risk have a slower rate of poverty reduction. The role of this research is to show the need for the government's role in improving the quality of natural disaster mitigation anticipation, economic activity, and the role of the population in a sustainable manner.

Considerations for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Landslides using GIS (GIS기반 산사태재해의 정량적 피해 산정을 위한 고려사항 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Ok;Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Hyo-Joong;Kim, Yong-Il
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.645-648
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    • 2008
  • This study provides considerations for quantitative risk assessment of landslide on GIS technology. It shows how the landslide possibility analysis is linked by GIS modeling to provide loss estimation tools for landslide hazards in support of socio-economic loss reduction efforts. Those risk assessment results can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy making for the landslide damage mitigation.

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Evaluation of the Importance of Risk Factors in Real Estate Development Projects and Their Risk Management (부동산 개발사업의 위험요인 중요도 평가 및 위험관리 방안)

  • Park, Jae-Yong;Park, Won-Seok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.681-696
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    • 2010
  • This paper aims to evaluate the importance of risk factors at each stage of real estate development projects, and to propose risk management plans. For this purpose, possible risk factors at each stage of real estate development projects are extracted through previous studies, questionnaire survey by real estate experts is conducted next. And finally, the importance of risk factors at each stage evaluated using the AHP method. The results of this study are as follows. First, according to the results of evaluating the risk factors by main categories, planning risks in predevelopment stage, licensing risks in developing preparation stage, and cash flow risk in development stage are appreciated as most important risks. Second, according to the results by sub categories, changes in consumer preferences in pre-development stage, contracts and licensing-related work in developing preparation stage, bankruptcy of developers and construction companies in development stage, and compensation for any kinds of accidents in management and operation stage are appreciated as most important risks. Third, the major risk management plans at each stage based on the analysis results are suggested.

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The Impact of Perceived Risks and Switching Costs on Switching Intention to Cloud Services: Based on PPM Model (지각된 위험과 전환비용이 클라우드 서비스로의 전환의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: PPM 모델 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seung Hee;Jeong, Seok Chan
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.65-91
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    • 2021
  • Purpose In this study, we investigated the impact of perceived risk and switching costs on switching intention to cloud service based on PPM (Pull-Push-Mooring) model. Design/methodology/approach We focused on revealing the switching factors of the switching intention to the cloud services. The switching factors to the cloud services were defined as perceived risk consisting of performance risk, economic risk, and security risk, and switching costs consisting of financial and learning costs. On the PPM model, we defined the pull factors consisting of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and the push factor as satisfaction of the legacy system, and the mooring factor as policy supports. Findings The results of this study as follows; (1) Among the perceived risk factors, performance risk has a negative effect on the ease of use of pull factors, and finally it was found to affect the switching intention to the cloud services. Therefore, cloud service providers need to improve trust in cloud services, service timeliness, and linkage to the legacy systems. And it was found that economic risk and security risk among the perceived risk factors did not affect the switching intention to the cloud services. (2) Of the perceived risk factors, financial cost and learning cost did not affect the satisfaction of the legacy system, which is a push factor. It indicates that the respondents are positively considering switching to cloud service in the future, despite the fact that the respondents are satisfied with the use of the legacy system and are aware of the switching cost to cloud service. (3) Policy support was found to improve the switching intention to cloud services by alleviating the financial and learning costs required for cloud service switching.

Regulatory Aspect of Risk Assessment and Management

  • Lee, Hyomin;EunkyungYoon;Jeeyeun Han
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.17
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2001
  • Risk assessment is useful tool making good decisions on the risks of certain hazardous com-pound and suggests safe margin through scientific process using toxicological data, statistical tool, exposure value and relevant variants. The goal of risk management is to protect the public health from hazardous compound based on result of risk assessment having reality. For the suggestion of exact man-aging information, risk assessment must be designed to represent a "plausible estimate" of the exposure to the individuals and to minimize uncertainty. Risk assessment methodology and knowledge are expected to change more rapidly than before and up-to-date methodology should be applied in regulatory aspects through the Agency. For the useful application of risk assessment, the communication between the risk assessor and the risk manager is needed before the initiation of the risk assessment and upon its completion. Generally, the risk assessment itself as a practical tool in the regulatory decision making process would be regarded with social economic impact.ic impact.

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Investigation and Empirical Validation of Industry Uncertainty Risk Factors Impacting on Bankruptcy Risk of the Firm (기업부도위험에 영향을 미치는 산업 불확실성 위험요인의 탐색과 실증 분석)

  • Han, Hyun-Soo;Park, Keun-Young
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

Risk Perceived by Consumers in Apparel Buying Situation ( I ) - Risk Types and Their Relationships with Consumers' Demographic Variables- (의복구매시 소비자가 지각하는 위험에 관한 연구( I ) -위험의 유형분류, 소비자 인구변인과의 관련을 중심으로-)

  • Kim Chanjn
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.15 no.4 s.40
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    • pp.405-416
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    • 1991
  • This paper examined the risks perceived by consumers in apparel buying situation by 1) measuring the contents and perception level of risk, 2) categorizing each risk into meaningful factors (risk types), 3) analyzing the relationships between risk types and consumers' demo-graphic variables. 224 respondents deliberately selected to include each level of S demographic variables were contacted with 37-item question3.ire. Factor analysis showed that 32-item perceived risk could be categorized into 6 risk types: psychological. social, economic, time/convenience loss, fashionability loss, performance risk. Psychological risk were perceived highest in terms of perception level while social and performance risk showed relatively low perception level. 4 of 5 demographic variables including sex, education level, income, occupa-tion showed partial relationship with each risk type after ANOVA and Duncan test. Sex had the greatest influence on risk perception level and each age level (20's, 30's, 40's) showed different risk structure.

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Socio-demographic factors and diet-related characteristics of community-dwelling elderly individuals with dysphagia risk in South Korea

  • Lim, Youngsuk;Kim, Chorong;Park, Haeryun;Kwon, Sooyoun;Kim, Oksun;Kim, Heeyoung;Lee, Youngmi
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.406-414
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to determine dysphagia risk among community-dwelling elderly people living at home. We also examined the impact of socio-demographic variables on dysphagia risk as well as the relationship between dysphagia risk and dietary characteristics. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The study sample included 568 community-dwelling individuals, aged 65 years and above, who were living independently in their own home in Seoul, Gyeonggi, or Gwangju in South Korea. We used a dysphagia risk assessment scale to screen for dysphagia risk and the Mini nutritional assessment to evaluate the nutritional status. Associations between dysphagia risk and other variables were assessed using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 568 subjects, 350 (61.6%) were classified into the dysphagia risk group (DR) and 218 (38.4%) were classified into the normal group (non-DR). Being female (odds ratio (OR) = 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.28-2.59), being 75 years and older (OR = 2.40, 95% CI = 1.69-3.42), having a lower education level (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.33-3.97), and having a lower perceived economic status (OR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.32-3.60) were more frequently observed with dysphagia risk compared to those who did not have such characteristics. Lowered mastication ability (OR = 14.40, 95% CI = 4.43-46.95), being at risk of malnutrition or malnourished (OR = 2.72, 95% CI = 1.75-4.23), lowered appetite (OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 2.16-4.93), and decreased food intake (OR = 2.95, 95% CI = 1.83-4.78) were observed more frequently in the DR group than in the non-DR group when adjusting for potential confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS: It is necessary to develop and apply integrated programs to improve the dietary habits and nutritional status of elderly individuals at risk for dysphagia, especially for women aged 75 years or older with lower educational and economic levels.

Statistical analysis of economic activity state of workers with industrial injuries using a competing risk model (경쟁위험분석을 이용한 산재 근로자의 원직장복귀에 대한 연구)

  • Doh, Gippeum;Kim, Sooyeon;Kim, Yang-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2015
  • Competing risk analysis is widely applied to analyze a failure time with more than two causes. This paper discusses the application of a competing risk model to a economic activity state of workers with occupational injuries. In particular, main interest is to estimate the distribution of restarting time two kinds of economic activities, (i) returning to original working place and (ii) finding a new job. In this paper, we applied a cumulative incidence function to evaluate their patterns under several individual factors and working place's factor. Furthermore, a subdistributional regression model is applied to estimate the effect of these factors on the returning time. According to result, worker with higher education, younger age and longer working period had a higher chance to return an original working place while one with more severe injuries and skilled laborer had longer returning time to an original working place.