• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.21-30
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• 2022

To mitigate the environmental impacts of the energy sector, the government of South Korea has made a continuous effort to facilitate the development and commercialization of renewable energy. As a result, the efficiency of renewable energy plants is not a consideration in the potential site selection process. To contribute to the overall sustainability of this increasingly important sector, this study utilizes the Black-Scholes model to evaluate the economic value of potential sites for off-site wind farms, while analyzing the environmental mitigation of these potential sites in terms of carbon emission reduction. In order to incorporate the importance of flexibility and uncertainty factors in the evaluation process, this study has developed a site evaluation model focused on system dynamics and real option approaches that compares the expected revenue and expected cost during the life cycle of off-site wind farm sites. Using sensitivity analysis, this study further investigates two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) on the economic value and carbon emission reduction of potential wind farm locations.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.132-141
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• 2011

Australia has joined many governments to adopt public-private partnership (PPP) as a major strategy for procuring infrastructure for decades. However, failures have occurred although the market has been considered to be a mature and sophisticated one. Failures have typically been traced back to inappropriate economic evaluation and a lack of value-for-money. In particular, a literature review has identified that there was no holistic consideration on the evaluation of procurement transactions of PPP projects. The transaction costs of PPPs were not handled properly. In this paper, theories of transaction cost economics are proposed for the purpose of such a holistic institutional economic evaluation. These theories are analysed in order to identify potential critical success factors for a strategic infrastructure procurement framework. The potential critical success factors are identified and grouped into a number of categories that match the theories of transaction cost economics. These categories include (1) Asset Specificity, (2) Organizational Capability, (3) Transaction Frequency, (4) Behavioural Uncertainty, and (5) Environmental Uncertainty. These potential critical success factors may be subject to an empirical test in the future. The proposed framework will offer decision makers with an insight into project life cycle economic outcomes needed to successfully deliver PPPs.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.89-121
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• 2005

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between investment and uncertainty using the firm level data of Korean manufacturing sector. Empirical results show that uncertainty is negatively correlated with investment only for the post-crisis sample period. In particular, the negative effect of uncertainty on investment is more significant for low interest coverage ratio firms, high debt-asset ratio firms and small firms. The results are consistent with the claim that firms act in a more risk-averse manner after the financial crisis. This paper also finds a significant sensitivity of investment to cash flows only for the pre-crisis sample period, suggesting that financial constraint is not relatively important in explaining low investment after the financial crisis.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.617-643
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• 2019

The Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) is a buffer zone set between the southern and northern limit lines established after the 1953 Armistice Agreement. It is an important natural environment conservation area where wild species of animals and plants live. On the other hand, the development pressure on the DMZ will increase when the inter-Korean economic cooperation is activated in the future. As a result, DMZ development should consider not only the economic cost-benefit aspects, but also how to assess and conserve the biodiversity of the DMZ, as well as the recovery costs and budget. This paper develope a sustainable DMZ management model under biodiversity uncertainly by using real option approach. The model is also designed to reflect the political risk and regional specificity of the DMZ. Through empirical analysis, I derive the biodiversity threshold (b^*) that can secure the DMZ investment economy under uncertainty. In addition, through the sensitivity analysis, I derive the factors influencing the biodiversity threshold, and suggest the policy implications for sustainable management of DMZ.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.313-342
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• 2014

A Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) is defined in order to facilitate the development and validation of available uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis methods for best-estimate Light water Reactor (LWR) design and safety calculations. The benchmark has been named the OECD/NEA UAM-LWR benchmark, and has been divided into three phases each of which focuses on a different portion of the uncertainty propagation in LWR multi-physics and multi-scale analysis. Several different reactor cases are modeled at various phases of a reactor calculation. This paper discusses Phase I, known as the "Neutronics Phase", which is devoted mostly to the propagation of nuclear data (cross-section) uncertainty throughout steady-state stand-alone neutronics core calculations. Three reactor systems (for which design, operation and measured data are available) are rigorously studied in this benchmark: Peach Bottom Unit 2 BWR, Three Mile Island Unit 1 PWR, and VVER-1000 Kozloduy-6/Kalinin-3. Additional measured data is analyzed such as the KRITZ LEU criticality experiments and the SNEAK-7A and 7B experiments of the Karlsruhe Fast Critical Facility. Analyzed results include the top five neutron-nuclide reactions, which contribute the most to the prediction uncertainty in keff, as well as the uncertainty in key parameters of neutronics analysis such as microscopic and macroscopic cross-sections, six-group decay constants, assembly discontinuity factors, and axial and radial core power distributions. Conclusions are drawn regarding where further studies should be done to reduce uncertainties in key nuclide reaction uncertainties (i.e.: $^{238}U$ radiative capture and inelastic scattering (n, n') as well as the average number of neutrons released per fission event of $^{239}Pu$).

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.294-304
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• 2019

Abstract Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and forestry sources in the energy sector have been estimated based on a top-down approach, which is an efficient way to estimate GHG emissions with the limited number of emission factors and activity data. On the other hand, for GHG abatement policies, more detailed information and data on GHG emissions are required. This study discusses how to improve the estimates of GHG emissions from the agricultural and forestry sources in the energy sector. To this end, this paper reviews the current estimation method of GHG emissions and presents three suggestions to enhance the current method. First, the development of country specific emission factors and corresponding activity data is proposed based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports from other countries, and Domestic Statistics. Second, the uncertainty in CO₂ emissions from agriculture in energy sector based on 2006 IPCC Guidelines is estimated, and ways of reducing the uncertainty in CO₂ emissions are suggested. Finally, a potential way to reflect the GHG emissions from the use of renewable energy is suggested.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.109-123
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• 2008

This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1996.07b
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• pp.695-697
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• 1996

Main theme of this paper is to evaluate the degree of risk due to the uncertainly of the future, especially for the long-term integrated resource planning (IRP) in electric utility. The measures of uncertainty for dealing with planning risk in the IRP context include robustness and flexibility of each candidate resource plan. The uncertainty indices are treated as decision criteria, or attributes, same as economic efficiency or reliability criteria in the multi-attribute decision-making (MCDM) procedure of IRP.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2020

Liquid air energy storage (LAES) using gas liquefaction has attracted considerable attention because of its mature technology, high energy density, few geographical constraints, and long life span. On the other hand, LAES has not yet been commercialized and is being developed recently. Therefore, few studies have performed an economic analysis of LAES. In this study, the levelized cost of electricity was calculated and compared with that of other energy storage systems. As a result, the levelized cost of electricity of LAES was $371/MWh. This is approximately $292/MWh, $159/MWh, $118/MWh, and $3/MWh less than that of the LiCd battery, VRFB battery, Lead-acid battery, and NaS battery. In addition, the cost was approximately $62/MWh and $195/MWh more than that of Fe-Cr flow battery and PHS. Sensitivity analysis of the levelized cost of electricity according to the main economic factors was performed, and economic uncertainty analysis was performed through a Monte-Carlo simulation. The cumulative probability curve showed the levelized cost of electricity of LAES, reflecting price fluctuations in the air compressor cost, electricity cost, and standing reserve hourly fee.