• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.183-193
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of global uncertainty on gross and net capital flows in Korea. Design/methodology/approach - We conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of global uncertainty on the net and gross capital flows in korea. To investigate the impacts, we incorporate linear and nonlinear ARDL models. Findings - We find global uncertainty has negative impacts on the gross and net capital flows. But this impact is nonlinear. The negative global uncertainty shocks are bigger than the positive global uncertainty shocks on capital flows in Korea. And we find this relationship is noticeable in gross capital inflows. We also find interest rate difference between the US and Korea is the main driving source in capital flow after the Global financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - The results of this study suggest that the negative impacts of global uncertainty are noticeable. This means that economic players in financial markets should be more concerned about the bad news.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.31-41
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• 2022

As the environmental impacts of fossil fuel energy sources increase, the South Korean government has tried to change non-environmental-friendly enery sources to environmental-friendly energy sources in order to mitigate environmental effects, which lead to global warming and air pollution. With both a limited budget and limited time, it is essential to accurately evaluate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy projects for the efficient and effective operation of renewable energy plants. Although the traditional economic evaluation methods are not ideal for evaluating the economic impacts of renewable energy projects, they can still be used for this purpose. Renewable energy projects involve many risks due to various uncertainties. For this reason, this study utilizes a real option method, the Geske compound model, to evaluate the renewable energy projects on Jeju Island in terms of economic and environmental values. This study has developed an economic evaluation model based on the Geske compound model to investigate the influences of flexibility and uncertainty factors on the evaluation process. This study further conducts a sensitivity analysis to examine how two uncertainty factors (namely, investment cost and wind energy production) influence the economic and environmental value of renewable energy projects.

• 한국유통학회지:유통연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.115-141
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• 1997

This study examines the effects of economic and relational dimensions of supplier-distributor relationship on distributors intents to leave. A survey of 121 computer hardware distributors revealed that distributors commitment to the relationship and their transaction-specific investment would decrease directly the level of withdrawal intention. Other relational dimensions such as the procedural and distributive fairness, the morality of aspiration, and economic dimensions such as the transaction-specific investment made by the supplier and distributors expectations fo future performance increase indirectly the level of withdrawal intension via affecting either trust or commitment. The present study also found that perceived uncertainty and relative dependence might moderate the effects the economic and relational dimensions on distributors intents to leave. Relational dimensions, when compared to economic dimensions, tend to have stronger impacts on withdrawal intentions under high levels of uncertainty and relative dependence.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.431-439
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• 2018

Less mature nuclear reactor technologies are characterized by a greater uncertainty due to insufficient detailed design information, operational data, cost information, etc., but the expected performance characteristics of less mature options are usually more attractive in comparison with more mature ones. The greater uncertainty is, the higher economic risks associated with the project realization will be. Within a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies, it is necessary to apply economic risk measures to balance judgments regarding the economic performance of less and more mature options. Assessments of any risk metrics involve calculating different characteristics of probability distributions of associated economic performance indicators and applying the Monte-Carlo method. This paper considers the applicability of statistical risk measures for different economic performance indicators within a trial case study on a comparative evaluation of less and more mature unspecified LWRs. The presented case study demonstrates the main trends associated with the incorporation of economic risk metrics into a comparative evaluation of less and more mature nuclear reactor technologies.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

무역은 국가 경제에 중요한 경제활동이다. 특히, WTO 출범 이후 2001년 중국의 WTO 가입, 다자간 무역체계의 확립, 자유무역협정(FTA) 등으로 무역의 범위가 확대되고, 국가 간 무역장벽의 완화 및 통합화로 인해 무역시장의 규모가 확대되고 있다. 그러나 무역시장 규모가 확대됨에도 불구하고, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기, 2016년 브렉시트, 2018년 미·중 무역전쟁과 같은 극단적인 사건 발생하여 무역시장이 직접적으로 타격받고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 무역활동을 대변하는 변수인 국제 해운 운임지수와 미국, 중국 무역 불확실성 사이의 의존구조를 분석 하였다. 분석 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미국, 중국 무역 불확실성과 국제 해운 운임지수 조합의 결합분포가 각각 Frank copula, rotated Clayton copula 270°으로 나타나, 미국, 중국 국가별로 동일한 분포 구조를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, Kendall's tau 상관관계를 살펴보면, 국제 해운 운임지수와 미국, 중국 무역 불확실성 사이에 음(-)의 의존성을 갖지만, 의존성 정도는 중국 무역 불확실성과 국제 해운 운임지수의 조합에서 더 크게 나타났다. 즉, 전 세계 수요와 무역 불확실성의 의존성은 미국보다 중국이 더 강하다는 것을 확인하였다. 마지막으로, 꼬리 의존성 결과를 살펴보면, 미국, 중국 무역 불확실성과 국제 해운 운임지수가 서로 독립적인 관계로 나타났다. 이는 무역 불확실성의 극단적인 사건 혹은 국제 해운 운임지수의 극단적인 사건이 발생해도 서로 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 의미한다.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.21-34
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• 1986

The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk and uncertainty involved in the capital budgeting which is executed in long periods and requires massive capital expenditure. Under risk and uncertainty conditions, the estimates in the capital budgeting are random variables rather than known constants. Two approaches have emerged in performing economic analysis that explicitly incorporate risk and uncertainty conditions in the analysis. One approach is to develop a descriptive model which describes the economic performance of an individual investment alternative. But no recomendation would be forthcoming from the model. Rather, the decision-maker would be furnished descriptive information concerning each alternative; the final choice among the alternatives would required a separate action. The second approach is to develop a normative model which includes an objective function to be maximized or minimized. The output from the model prescribes the course of action to be taken. Owing to the fact that the normative approach considers the fitness of criteria for decision-making its reasonableness looks better. But it is almost imposible that we correctly and easily derive the individuals' utility function. So within we recognize the limits of the descriptive methods, it is more practicle to analyse the investment alternatives by sensitivity analysis.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.195-200
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• 2021

In recent years, Vietnam's economic growth rate has been attributed to the growth of many well-managed industries within Southeast Asia. Among them is the civil construction industry. Construction projects typically take a long time to complete and require a huge budget. Many socio-economic variables and factors affect total construction project costs due to market fluctuations. In recent years, crucial socioeconomic development indicators of construction reached a fairly high growth rate. Also, most infrastructure and construction projects have a high degree of complexity and uncertainty. This makes it challenging to predict the accurate project price. These challenges raise the need to recognize significant factors that influence the construction price index of civil buildings in Vietnam, both micro and macro. Therefore, this paper presents critical factors that affect the construction price index using the fuzzy extent analysis process in an uncertain environment. This proposed quantitative model is expected to reflect the uncertainty in the process of evaluating and ranking the influencing factors of the construction price index in Vietnam. The research results would also allow project stakeholders to be more informed of the factors affecting the construction price index in the context of Vietnam's civil construction industry. They also enable construction contractors to estimate project costs and bid rates better, enhancing their project and risk management performance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2022

The study incorporates model uncertainty into the private equity (PE) valuation model (SWY model) (Sorensen et al., 2014) to evaluate how model uncertainty distorts the leverage and valuations of PE funds. This study applies a continuous-time model to PE project valuation, modeling the LPs' goal as multiplier preferences provided by Anderson et al. (2003), and assuming that LPs' aversion to model uncertainty causes endogenous belief distortions with entropy as a measure of model discrepancies. Concerns regarding model uncertainty, according to the theoretical model, have an unclear effect on LPs' risk attitude and GPs' decision, which is based on the value of the PE asset. It also demonstrates that model uncertainty lowers the certainty-equivalent valuation of the LPs. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the Full-spanning risk model with the Non-spanned risk model, and they match the intuitive economic reasoning. The most important implication is that model uncertainty will have negative effects on the LPs' certainty-equivalent valuation but has ambiguous effects on the portfolio allocation choice of liquid wealth. Our works contribute to two literature streams. The first is the literature that models the PE funds. The second is the literature introduces model uncertainty into standard finance models.

• 벤처창업연구
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.119-130
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• 2021

본 연구는 팬데믹한 불확실성하에서 창업동기에 영향을 미치는 조절초점과 기업가정신에 관한 연구이다. 특히 국내의 선행연구에서 유의성이 관측되지 않은 방어초점과 위험감수성, 경제적 창업동기 사이의 실증분석에서 한계점으로 제언하고 있는 표본의 다양성에 집중하여 보완적으로 검증하고자하였다. 또한 코로나19로 불확실성이 심화되고 경제상황이 큰 타격을 받고 있는 특수한 외부환경 아래에서 창업동기에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 선천적 성향의 개인특성인 조절초점과 위험감수성을 회귀분석하고, 조절초점과 창업동기 사이에서 위험감수성의 매개효과를 실증하였다. 실증결과, 방어초점과 위험감수성, 경제적 창업동기에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 방어초점과 경제적 창업동기 사이에서 위험감수성이 매개효과를 가지는 것으로 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 기존의 선행연구에서는 관측되지 않은 결과로써 의미가 있으며, 선천적 성향이 큰 개인특성인 조절초점이 후천적 성향의 위험감수성과 상호작용하여 창업동기에 영향을 주는 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 연구결과는 갈수록 심화되는 외부환경의 불확실성 속에서 창업을 꿈꾸거나 창업하려는 창업가에게 기업가정신 또는 창업교육 프로그램을 할 때 조절초점과 위험감수성을 이해하고 집중함으로써 실질적 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다. 반면, 선행연구와 다른 이러한 결과들이 표본의 다양성 효과인지 아니면, 코로나19같은 외부환경의 영향인지 확인할 필요가 있으며, 추후 추가연구를 통하여 재검증이 필요하다.

• 여성건강간호학회지
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.316-323
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• 2005

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among women's total symptom distress, uncertainty and quality of life in women with endometriosis. Method: A total of 121 women who had been diagnosed with endometriosis was given a questionnaire. Data was collected from August 2004 to January 2005. The data was analyzed by frequency, mean, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS WIN 10.0 software. Result: The mean score of TSD was 3.23. 'Menstrual cramping' showed the highest score. The mean score of uncertainty, and quality of life of the subject was 56.6, and 38.3 respectively. TSD was significantly related with coffee intake and uncertainty was significantly related with marital status, economic status, alcohol intake, diagnosis after period, and family history. Quality of life was significantly related with age, and dysmenorrhea. There were significant relationships between total symptom distress and uncertainty, and quality of life. There were significant relationship between uncertainty and quality of life. Conclusion: Endometriosis symptoms showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and quality of life. This study will help to manage women with endometriosis.