• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2000년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.257-267
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• 2000

원자력발전소 주요기기의 교체에 대한 경제성평가는 대부분 결정론적 방법으로 수행하고 있으나 불확실성을 가진 입력변수에 따라 결과 값이 매우 가변적일 수 있다. 현실세계의 불확실성을 보다 면밀히 고려하기 위해 확률론적 방법을 활용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 decision analysis를 이용하여 원자력발전소 기기 교체에 대한 경제성평가를 확률론적 방법으로 수행하였다. Decision analysis는 불확실성과 위험에 직면한 선택을 이끄는 기회를 이성적으로 개선하기 위한 방법론이며, 확률론과 통계이론이 복합되어 있다. Decision analysis의 주요요소는 여러 가지 방안 중 선택한 대안, 선택으로부터 결정된 결과, 그리고 다른 대안과 비교해서 상대적인 우선순위이다. 또한, decision analysis는 값, 불확실성, 그리고 위험도를 구조적으로 통합하는 원리를 제공한다. Decision analysis의 중요한 이점은 이러한 불확실성과 위험도에 대한 처리에 있으며, 모델은 influence diagram과 decision tree를 이용하여 작성한다. 본 논문에서는 decision analysis를 이용하여 국내 A형 원자력발전소 증기발생기의 최적교체시기를 결정하여 보았다. 이러한 방법은 향후 원자력발전소 주요기기의 교체에 관한 경제성평가시 적용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2016

Background: Selective health benefit was introduced for decreasing economic burden of patients. Medical devices with economic uncertainty have been covered as selective health benefit by National Health Insurance since December 2013. We aimed to analyze impact of selective health benefit to medical expenditure and provider behavior focused on electrosurgery (ultrasonic shears, electrothermal bipolar vessel sealers) for gastric cancer patients covered since December 2014. Methods: We used the National Health Insurance claims data of 2,698 patients underwent gastric cancer surgery between August 2014 and March 2015. Medical cost and patient sharing per inpatient day were analyzed to verify that covering electrosurgery increased medical expenditure and changed provider behavior from open surgery to endoscopic or laparoscopic surgery. Additionally, we analyzed the claim rate of medical device or goods relating gastric endoscopic and laparoscopic surgery. Results: Medical cost and patient sharing per inpatient day were increased after covering electosurgery as selective health benefit (39,724/1,421 won). However, there were no medical expenditure increases after adjusting claim of electosurgery and patient sharing was decreased 1,057 won especially. The coverage of selective health benefit did not increase the claim rate of medical device or goods related endoscopic or laparoscopic surgery, either. Conclusion: Covering electosurgery decreased patient economic burden and did not change of provider behavior. Expanding selective health benefit is needed to decrease economic burden of severe patients. Further study should evaluate the long term effect with accumulated data.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2019

Recently, the United States and China have declared a 25% retaliatory tariff for the partner country products of 50 billion dollar scale. "Trade war" is getting full swing. Such conflicts between economic powers may spread to Japan like the domino phenomenon following the EU (European Union) and become bigger in the global trade war. As a result, Korea has an economic system with a high degree of external dependence, and there is an expert's analysis that it will become the largest victim of the global trade war. If the WTO Dispute Settlement Authority approves this US 301 retaliation measure in the same way as the past case (US-EU hormone-treated beef imports), the United States will not import any Chinese imported products Chinese products) can be imposed. If the US launches a special 301 or super 301, which is stronger than the regular 301, then China is very likely to enforce US retaliation against it, and the trade war between the two countries could become a reality. This phenomenon is likely to have a negative impact on Korean companies. In particular, Korea, which is highly reliant on intermediate goods exports to China, is expected to suffer a great deal of damage. Therefore, Korea needs flexible response at home and abroad, it is necessary to enhance the autonomy of companies and protect export industries. Adjusting corporate tax rate as well as domestic industry height will be one way. The long-term (21 months) trade war between the United States and China has resulted in economic uncertainty. The resulting damage must be compensated. It is necessary to prepare the compensation through the economic council between countries. In the future, the punitive damage compensation system should be introduced.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권5D호
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• pp.513-522
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• 2010

도시인구 과밀현상, 지상도로교통망 포화 등의 문제를 해결하기 위한 효율적 토지활용방안으로 지하도로교통망, 복합단지, 저장시설 등 다양한 형태의 지하구조물 건설이 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지하구조물 시공 시 열악한 환경에 적합한 작업자의 3차원 위치와 통신 연락을 위한 현장지원 통합관리시스템 개발의 경제적 타당성 분석을 수행하였다. 본 분석을 위해 터널 및 지하철건설을 대상으로 현장조사 및 작업자 설문조사를 수행하여 현행 지하구조물 건설 현장관리 프로세스 분석, 문제점 파악 및 시스템 도입을 통해 발생할 것으로 예상되는 편익의 정량적 도출을 실시하였으며, 본 시스템 도입으로 발생할 것으로 예상되는 사고감소, 현장관리비 절감, 생산성 향상을 편익으로 추정하고 경제성 분석기법인 편익/비용비(B/C), 순 현재가치(NPV), 내부수익률(IRR)을 활용하여 시스템 도입의 경제적 타당성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 편익/비용비는 1.79로 도출되었으며, 순현재가치와 내부수익률은 각 103,423,797원, 47.01%로 산출되어, 본 시스템 도입의 경제성을 확보할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 변수들의 불확실성을 고려하여 민감도 분석을 실시하였다.

• 벤처창업연구
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.1-21
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• 2024

최근 고금리, 경기둔화로 인한 벤처투자 위축이 전 세계적으로 진행 중이며, 우리나라도 예외가 아니다. M&A와 상장시장의 침체, 경기불확실성 증가, 기업 파산의 여파로 인한 투자심리 위축으로 벤처기업의 자금조달에 많은 어려움을 겪고 있다. 이렇게 바뀐 경제 환경에서 벤처캐피탈의 투자의사결정 요인도 많은 변화를 나타내고 있다. 하지만, 벤처캐피탈의 투자의사결정에 대한 연구는 일반적인 경제 환경에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 본 연구는 경제 후퇴와 호황에 따라 벤처캐피탈의 투자의사결정 요인이 어떻게 변화하는지를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 경제 불황과 호황을 모두 겪은 적극적인 벤처 투자자들을 인터뷰하여 벤처캐피탈의 투자의사결정 요인: 1)창업자의 개인적 특성, 2)창업자의 경험, 3) 제품/서비스, 4) 시장, 5) 재무상황, 6) 투자조건, 7) 벤처캐피탈 공동투자가 어떻게 변화하는지를 비교하여 연구하였다. 연구결과, 투자의사결정 요인인 창업자의 개인적 특성, 경험, 제품/서비스는 경제 불황기에 더 높은 중요도를 가졌다. 시장 요인은 경제 호황기에 약간 높은 수준의 중요도를 나타냈다. 재무적 상황과 투자조건 요인은 경제 불황기에 경제 호황기 대비 중요도가 급격히 상승하였다. 마지막으로 벤처캐피탈 공동 투자는 경제 불황과 호황기에 많은 차이를 보이지 않았다. 본 연구는 최근 어려워진 벤처투자 환경에서 벤처캐피탈의 투자의사결정 요인을 보다 심도 있게 이해함으로써, 스타트업의 자금 조달을 돕고, 어려운 시장에서 생존하는 방안 마련에 도움을 준다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.353-379
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• 2019

This paper aims to determine factors causing the stagnation of Korean firms' fixed investment after the global financial crisis, using panel data for the period of 1999-2016. Fixed investment remained sensitive to cash flow and Tobin's q although their effects decreased after the global financial crisis. A decreasing trend of cash flow and an increase in Tobin's q since the early 2000's imply that the worsening cash flow was a major factor behind the sluggish investment after the crisis. Meanwhile, debt-equity ratio remained significant for non-chaebol affiliated firms, reflecting disparity in access to external financing. Volatility of stock returns also became insignificant after the crisis, casting doubt on the argument that uncertainty was a major factor contributing to the decline of fixed investment. Analysis of financial investment confirmed the significant effect of cash flow, larger than that on financial investment than on fixed investment. In particular, debt repayment and other financial investment, except share repurchase, were sensitive to cash flow. However, the substitution of fixed investment by financial investment is a consequence, rather than a cause of declining fixed investment.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.158-164
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• 2018

Wind power forecast is critical for efficient power system operation. However, wind power has high forecasting errors due to uncertainty caused by the climate change. These forecasting errors can have an adverse impact on the power system operation. In order to mitigate the issues caused by the wind power forecasting error, wind power curtailment and energy storage system (ESS) can be introduced in the power system. These methods can affect the economics of wind power resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economics of the methods for mitigating the wind power forecasting error. This paper attempts to analyze the economics of wind power curtailment and ESS operation for mitigating wind power forecasting error. Numerical simulation results are presented to show the economic impact of wind power curtailment and ESS operation.

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.31-52
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• 2012

Although political uncertainty exists between China and Taiwan, the two countries have been expanding their economic exchange since the 1980s. That economic exchange is not limited to trade, and its investment segment is constantly expanding. The investment was one-sided by Taiwan in the past, but since a change in policy by the Taiwan government in 2009, Chinese capital is able to flow into Taiwan for direct investment. These kinds of policy changes related to investment between the two countries require follow-up actions such as profit protection for investors, elimination of investment limitations, simplification of investment procedures, and establishment of an investment dispute resolution system. The main topic of this study is the resolution mechanism for investment disputes between China and Taiwan. At present, an individual investment dispute between two countries is settled according to each country's own regulations for dispute resolution. However, these two countries have not prepared dispute resolution regulations related to cases of investment disputes between Chinese or Taiwanese investors and the Chinese or Taiwanese government, or between the Chinese government and the Taiwanese government. Moreover, they do not have any agreements related to investment disputes. Therefore, in this paper, I enumerate the regulations related to investment dispute resolution between China and Taiwan, and then I point out the problems and suggest solutions for improvement. Also, through this study, I would like to contribute to establishing and implementing an investment dispute resolution mechanism between South Korea and North Korea.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.1-23
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• 2016

Social commerce (s-commerce) is a subset of e-commerce and uses social media for social interactions. Although s-commerce has been rapidly growing, disputes between some s-commerce firms and their consumers often occur over issues such as poor customer services, incorrect product information, and late refunds. In order for s-commerce to continuously grow, s-commerce firms need to build consumer-trust in their transaction process to minimize their consumers' uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between the multidimensional trust (ability, integrity, benevolence) and the intention of continuous use of s-commerce. Moreover, this study presents antecedent factors needed for trust-building by applying the characteristics of s-commerce, and verifies the relations between the variables. We test and validate the research model and related hypotheses using structural equation modeling based on a survey done on 428 people who have previous experience with s-commerce. The result shows that trust has positive effect on the intention of continuous use, and verifies the necessity of the antecedent factors (social presence, assurance, informativeness, economic feasibility, and seller reputation) for trust-building. This study provides strategy for the continuous growth of s-commerce, and suggests theoretical implication that explains the relationship between the characteristics of s-commerce and consumers.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제75권
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• pp.95-116
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• 2017

The global financial crisis has slowed overall growth in the global economy. In addition, uncertainty is increasing in the world economy due to the Trade protectionism, sluggish world trade, and a rise in the rate of interest caused by expansion of fiscal spending by major countries. In this study, we analyzed various factors affecting the container import and export volume, which has a high correlation with export and import of commodities in international trade. In particular, we will examine how exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and overseas economic conditions affect container imports and exports. For the empirical analysis, monthly time series data were used from January 2000 to January 2017. We use the Error Correction Model (VECM) for the empirical analysis and the GARCH model for the exchange rate fluctuation. As a result, container export and import volume had a negative relationship with exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, which had a positive effect on domestic and international economic conditions. However, the effects are different before and after the financial crisis.