• 제목/요약/키워드: Economic Uncertainty

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코로나바이러스감염증-19 환자의 극복력 관련 요인 (Factors related to Resilience of Coronavirus Infectious Diseases-19 Patients)

  • 이민희;박민정
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제22권10호
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    • pp.349-358
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 코로나바이러스감염증-19 환자의 불확실성, 사회적 고립감, 사회적 지지와 극복력의 관계를 확인하고 극복력 관련 요인을 규명하고자 시도되었다. 자료는 2021년 3월 7일부터 5월 5일까지 수집되었고, 200부의 설문지가 자료분석에 이용되었다. 자료는 기술통계, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficient와 다중회귀분석을 사용하여 IBM SPSS Statistics 24.0을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 사회적 고립감이 낮을수록, 사회적 지지가 높을수록, 격리에 대한 설명에 만족한 경우, 경제상태가 '중'인 경우 극복력이 높게 나타나는 것으로 확인되었다. 따라서 코로나바이러스감염증-19 환자의 극복력을 향상시키기 위해서는 가족과 의료인을 통해 사회적 지지를 강화시키고, 비대면 상담 등을 통해 사회적 고립감을 감소시키며, 질병에 대한 충분한 정보를 제공과 경제적 지원이 포함된 체계적인 관리 프로그램을 개발하여 적용하는 것이 필요하다.

남북경협증가에 따른 위험의 완화방법으로서의 보험제도 - 북한보험법의 법원문제를 중심으로 - (An Increase the South-North Economic Corporations and Insurance as a Scheme for the Transfer of Risk - Focus on the Source of North Korea Insurance Law -)

  • 김선정
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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    • 제15권3호
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    • pp.267-301
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    • 2005
  • Following the increased economic corporations between the South and North Korea, many companies participate the corporation program. They needs insurance policy as a scheme for the transfer of risk from those individual company to it to an insurer. This paper review the possibility of the North Korea insurance authorities and research the origin, history, structure and context of the North Korea insurance law. The North Korea Insurance law differ from the South Korea and China's. North Korea Insurance authority has not capability of doing insurance business both side of underwriting and indemnity. Partly, it caused the uncertainty, insufficient and vague of the insurance law. The writer conclude that the North Korea insurance law faced to the needs of modernization. Especially, the Gyesung Industrial Complex Insurance Regulation couldn't cover the investor and company's risk because it is not based on the nature and basic principles of insurance.

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동태적 패널모형을 통한 무역보험의 거시경제효과 연구 (A Study on the Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Insurance Using Dynamic Panel Models)

  • 남상욱
    • 무역상무연구
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    • 제61권
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    • pp.165-190
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

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ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation

  • Rajeevan, A.K.;Shouri, P.V;Nair, Usha
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2016
  • Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

"호모 이코노미쿠스"로서의 로빈슨 크루소 재고 (Reconsidering Robinson Crusoe as Homo Economicus)

  • 이석구
    • 영어영문학
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    • 제64권4호
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    • pp.629-649
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    • 2018
  • To date, one of the prevailing criticisms of Daniel Defoe's Robinson Crusoe has seen the adventure novel as a celebration of the rise of mercantile capitalism and the beginnings of colonialism. From this point of view, the Englishman has often been interpreted as an early embodiment of the concept of the sovereign economic subject. Prominent social critics who took up this interpretation have included Karl Marx, Max Weber, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. Within literary studies proper, the work of Ian Watt offered perhaps the earliest version of this point of view of the novel. Influenced by both Weber and Rousseau, Ian Watt argued that Defoe's wandering protagonist embodies the rise of economic individualism. More recent criticism has tended to challenge this dominant interpretation by laying greater stress on such countervailing factors as Crusoe's mental uncertainty and inner conflict. Drawing inspiration from Fredric Jameson's diagnosis of the ills of late capitalism, this paper analyzes the ways in which Defoe's hero, rather than championing modern rationality, can in fact be seen as suffering from many forms of emotional psychosis. Robinson Crusoe can, after all, be better viewed as a contradictory multi-layered text that, despite its outward valorization of economic individualism, portrays its hero as a victim of negative capitalistic forces, a hero driven by his desire to possess but haunted by a fear of loss, a hero who flaunts inflated feelings of self-worth even as he reveals deflated notions of material insecurity and mental persecution.

Climate change impact assessment of agricultural reservoir using system dynamics model: focus on Seongju reservoir

  • Choi, Eunhyuk
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.311-331
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    • 2021
  • Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.

Analysis of ASEAN's Stock Returns and/or Volatility Distribution under the Impact of the Chinese EPU: Evidence Based on Conditional Kernel Density Approach

  • Mohib Ur Rahman;Irfan Ullah;Aurang Zeb
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.33-60
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

묶음제품 가격 할인 제시 프레이밍 효과: 지각된 소비 혜택과 품질 불확실성의 영향을 중심으로 (Discount Presentation Framing & Bundle Evaluation: The Effects of Consumption Benefit and Perceived Uncertainty of Quality)

  • 임미자
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.53-81
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    • 2012
  • 묶음제품의 매력도를 증가시키기 위해 소비자들이 번들 오퍼에서의 가격 제시 프레이밍(framing)에 민감하다는 것을 이해할 필요가 있다. 동일 가격을 할인하더라도 묶음제품 요소 중 어느 요소에 가격할인을 표시하느냐에 따라 소비자의 묶음제품에 대한 지각된 매력도를 바꿀 수 있기 때문이다. 선행연구는 더 중요한 제품 요소에 할인이 할당될 때 효용이 증가한다는 주장과 덜 중요한 제품 요소에 할인을 위치시키는 것이 선호를 증가시킨다는 주장을 동시에 보이고 있다. 본 연구는 선행연구를 보완하여 묶음제품 가격 할인 제시 프레이밍효과에 대한 새로운 기제를 제시한다. 그리고 선행연구에서 믹스드(mixed)된 결론을 보이는 이유를 분석하여 밝힌다. 본 연구는 현실적인 번들링 전략 사용 상황을 고려하였으며, 좀 더 리얼한 번들링 세팅을 이용하여 가격 할인 제시 프레이밍 효과를 조사하고, 순수번들 및 혼합번들을 포함한 다양한 묶음제품을 이용하여 품질 불확실성 지각에 따른 조절효과를 분석하였다. 본 연구 결과, 소비자들은 높은 소비 혜택(high consumption benefit)보다 낮은 소비 혜택(low consumption benefit) 요소에 가격 할인을 위치시키는 것을 더 선호하였다. 가격민감성(price sensitivity)이 주요혜택에서는 낮고, 낮은 혜택에서는 높기 때문에 동일 가격이 할인될 때 낮은 혜택을 할인한 매장 제품에 대한 평가가 더 높게 나타났다. 또한 구매 시점에서 품질의 불확실성(perceived uncertainty of product quality)이 높을수록 가격민감성이 혜택 지각에 가지는 효과가 더 커지고 있었다. 본 연구의 공헌은 소비 혜택 지각 및 가격민감성 기제와 지각된 품질 불확실성의 조절효과를 통해 선행연구를 통합하고, 가격 제시 형태의 프레이밍 효과를 명확하게 설명하였다는 점이다.

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풍력발전의 변동성을 고려한 기동정지계획에서의 적정 Ramping 용량 산정 (Evaluation of Ramping Capability for Day-ahead Unit Commitment considering Wind Power Variability)

  • 류재근;허재행;박종근
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제62권4호
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    • pp.457-466
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    • 2013
  • Wind energy is rapidly becoming significant generating technologies in electricity markets. As probabilistic nature of wind energy creates many uncertainties in the short-term scheduling, additional actions for reliable market operation should be taken. This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate ramping capability requirement for changes in imbalance energy between day-ahead market and real-time market due to uncertainty of wind generation as well as system load. Dynamic ramp rate model has been applied for realistic solution in unit commitment problem, which is implemented in day-ahead market. Probabilistic optimal power flow has been used to verify ramping capability determined by the proposed method is reasonable in economic and reliable aspects. This approach was tested on six-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system with a wind farm. The results show that the proposed approach provides ramping capability information to meet both forecasted variability and desired confidence level of anticipated uncertainty.

기업의 현금보유 패턴 변화 및 결정요인에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Pattern Changes and Determinants of Corporate Cash Holding)

  • 임경묵;최용석
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.75-116
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구는 외환위기를 전후로 우리나라 기업의 현금보유 패턴에 어떠한 변화가 발생하고 있는지 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면, 첫째 최근 현금보유가 증가한 것은 소수의 기업들이 현금보유 규모를 과거에 비해 급격하게 증가시키는 과정에서 관찰된 현상이며, 전반적으로 기업들의 현금보유가 증가하였다고 보기는 어려운 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 선진국의 경험과 유사하게 우리나라 기업들의 경우에도 영업성과의 불확실성이 높을수록 현금보유 비중을 높게 가져가는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 최근 영업성과의 불확실성이 과거에 비해 상승한 것도 우리나라 기업의 현금보유 패턴 변화에 일부 영향을 미쳤을 것으로 사료된다.

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