• 경제분석
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-33
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• 2019

본 연구는 어떠한 경제요인이 분산프리미엄의 동역학과 관련되어 있는지 확인하고, 분산 프리미엄의 예측력과 관계된 경제지표를 검증하였다. 국내외 선행연구 등에서 주가/경기를 예측하는 정보력을 보유한다고 알려진, 11개의 일반경기변수, 8개의 금리연관변수, 3개의 금융시장변수, 11개의 투자자 심리 및 활동변수를 이용하여 단변량/다변량 회귀분석을 통해 분산프리미엄과 유의한 관련을 가지는 변수를 추출하였다. 그 결과 분산프리미엄의 변동성을 설명하는 변수는 원달러환율, 외환보유액, 역사적/내재 변동성, 그리고 금리변수들로 한정되었으며, 이 변수들의 분산프리미엄에 대한 수정결정계수는 65% 이상으로 높은 설명력을 보여주었다. 다음으로 분산프리미엄에 유의한 설명력을 가진 변수들을 이용해 1~6개월의 미래 주식수익률 및 변동성 변화를 예측함으로써 어떠한 변수의 정보력이 분산 프리미엄의 예측력과 관련되어 있는지 검증하였다. 예측분석을 수행한 결과, 분산프리미엄의 동역학과 관련된 변수들 중, 원달러환율만이 수익률/변동성에 대한 공통적으로 유의한 예측력을 보유하고 있었다. 이러한 결과는 분산프리미엄이 글로벌 위험요인과 관련되어 있다는 선행연구의 결과와 일관되며(Londono, 2012; Bollerslev et al., 2014), 분산프리미엄의 예측력이 대외변수에 대한 경제의 민감도와 관련이 있다고 해석할 수 있다.

• 복식문화연구
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.261-269
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• 2002

The purposes of this study were to investigate component of service quality and to determine significant factors on the service quality and buying intention of internet apparel shopping mall. The data were collected from 212 female adults using questionnaire. Using SPSS package, Cronbach's α, factor analysis, and multiple repression analysis were performed. The results could be summarized as follows. 1. The service quality of internet apparel shopping mall was perceived as reliability, advantage, responsibility, product assortment, tangibles, and rapidness. 2. For perceived risk, privacy risk, economic risk, delivery risk, size risk, and quality risk were investigated. The perceived risk except economic risk and web search ability had an effect on the service quality of internet apparel shopping mall. 3. The most of perceived risk, web search ability, and advantage of the service quality had an effect on the shopping intent of the internet apparel shopping mall. Based on the these results, marketing strategies were suggested.

• 패션비즈니스
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.120-136
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to analyze consumers' perceived risk which is shown in the process of purchase phase and consumption phase for the counterfeits of fashion luxury brands and to analyze the interrelationship of each type of perceived risk. The research method of the study used a qualitative approach. 6 informants were selected and then an in-depth interview was held with them. Through this process the data on the perceived risk for counterfeits were collected and analyzed. The results of the study are as follows; The perceived level of psychological risk including counterfeits exposure was extremely high; besides, economic risk and performance risk were also perceived. On the contrary, the perceived level of social risk and fashionability loss were relatively low. The risk perception for counterfeits appeared not only on the purchase phase but also on the consumption phase, and when perceived risk existed on the consumption phase, it had an influence on the level of perceived risk on the next purchase phase. However the psychological risk was continuously perceived on both purchase and consumption phase, even if it did not exist on the consumption phase. Psychological risk, economic risk and performance risk were not independent but interdependent. Moreover, the entire level of perceived risk could be controlled by reducing the level of other perceived risks when a certain type of risk was highly perceived.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.221-234
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• 2013

In this paper, we report bankruptcy risk level forecasting result for automobile parts manufacturing industry. With the premise that upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk could impact on automobile parts industry bankruptcy level in advance, we draw upon industry input-output table to use the economic indicators which could reflect the extent of supply and demand risk of the automobile parts industry. To verify the validity of each economic indicator, we applied simple linear regression for each indicators by varying the time lag from one month (t-1) to 12 months (t-12). Finally, with the valid indicators obtained through the simple regressions, the composition of valid economic indicators are derived using stepwise linear regression. Using the monthly automobile parts industry bankruptcy frequency data accumulated during the 5 years, R-square values of the stepwise linear regression results are 68.7%, 91.5%, 85.3% for the 3, 6, 9 months time lag cases each respectively. The computational testing results verifies the effectiveness of our approach in forecasting bankruptcy risk forecasting of the automobile parts industry.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.65-83
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• 2022

In addition to simply providing quality food to the people, the fishery industry must be maintained and developed because it has various functions such as national food security, preservation of natural scenery, protection of national territory, and revitalization of the local economy. However, risk factors such as climate changes and environmental destruction have raised concerns about the sustainable development of the industry. Since these risk factors are becoming larger and more complex over time, it is time to conduct research related to the risk of the fishery industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the risk factors facing the fisheries at this point, to analyze the economic ripple effect of regional fishery product supply shortage, and to draw implications. As a result of this study, the economic ripple effect of fishery product shortage per won was highest in Busan, followed by Gangwon, Gyeongnam, and Gyeongbuk. Considering the size of the local fishery industry, Busan had the highest supply shortage per 1% of local fisheries production. It is also necessary to prepare special risk management and countermeasures for these regions since the effect of supply shortage in regions such as Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeju is large compared to other regions.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.391-423
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• 2016

By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries over the period 2000:1Q-2015:2Q, this paper shows that the impact of private credit growth on credit risk is apparent under the high ratio of capital inflows, and its impact on credit risk in the seven Asian countries is even stronger. And the possibility of credit risk caused by private credit is mainly coming from portfolio inflows rather than direct inflows. Finally, portfolio inflows strengthen the positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk in Asian countries, and this trend is seen more in these after the global financial crisis. Taken together, the stronger positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk can be strengthen under the massive portfolio inflows in particular in the seven Asian countries such as Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.789-795
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• 2014

In a demand response (DR) market run by independent system operators (ISOs), load aggregators are important market participants who aggregate small retail customers through various DR programs. A load aggregator can minimize the allocation cost by efficiently allocating its demand response resources (DRRs) considering retail customers' characteristics. However, the uncertain response behaviors of retail customers can influence the allocation strategy of its DRRs, increasing the economic risk of DRR allocation. This paper presents a risk-based DRR allocation method for the load aggregator that takes into account not only the physical characteristics of retail customers but also the risk due to the associated response uncertainties. In the paper, a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is applied to deal with the risk due to response uncertainties. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.4-5
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• 2015

Owning to rapid infrastructure development, Asia is experiencing dramatic economic growth. There are not a few cases in which, however, economic growth is achieved by increasing the external diseconomy. Pursuit of sustainable development is one of the most important issues for mankind. Under the post-industrial capitalism society, however, there seems a big risk of increase in the external diseconomy worldwide. The objectives of this manuscript are to discuss importance of risk management of construction practice in present and future. Regarding the latter, a particular attempt is made to discuss how project risk communication should be done to reduce the external diseconomy. Presently, one of the important issues in implementation of infrastructure projects is practice of risk management to properly manage time, cost, quality, and safety: mainly maximization of internal economy. Multi-party risk and uncertainty management process (MRUMP) is one of tolls to assist it. The idea on MRUMP can be used to reduce the external diseconomy through identifying, sharing, and tuning people's rhythms.

• 대한방사선기술학회지:방사선기술과학
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.23-27
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• 2020

In South Korea, female individuals in their forties show a high rate of incidence, with approximately 13% of the patients being <40 years. This statistic is more than twice as high as that in Western countries. It is therefore necessary to identify the risk factors for breast cancer incidence by age and economic activity participation status. Women aged 30 to 59-whether breast cancer patients or those in the control group and having no breast cancer-were appraised from the sample cohort database. The data were analyzed using the statistical software R36.2. To identify the factors affecting breast cancer incidence, the degree of association was determined with HR and 95% CI by means of cox regression analysis. As for the socio-demographic variables, the older the individual, the higher the risk of breast cancer incidence becomes. As for the economic activity variables, those who were dependents (unemployed) and who had higher income (medium and high) were at higher risk of breast cancer incidence, which was statistically significant. The income-adjusted HR (model 1) for breast cancer development associated with the economic activity was 1.452 (95% CI, 1.19-1.77). The body mass index and alcohol intake-adjusted HR (model 2) was 1.431 (95% CI, 1.18-1.74). One needs to pay attention to policy plans regarding women's quality of life, as well as to the risk of breast cancer incidence by their economic activity. In other words, policies need to give post care, instead of focus on early detection and cancer treatment.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.