• 국제지역연구
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.53-73
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• 2012

본 논문에서는 금리 스프레드가 두 아시아 국가의 경기불황을 예측할 수 있는가를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 세계시장에 상대적으로 개방이 많이 되어 있고 무역활동이 활발한 두 개의 신흥경제국가인 한국과 태국을 선정 하였다. 본 논문에서는 두 개의 국면(Two-regime Markov-Switching model)과 세 개의 국면(Three-regime Markov-Switching model)이 있는 마코프 국면 전환 모형을 이용하여 아시아 경제위기의 불황확률을 추정해 보았다. 추정결과 태국의 금리스프레드는 태국의 불황 확률을 반영하였으나 한국의 금리스프레드는 불황 예측을 하지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 세 개의 국면이 있는 모형이 두 개의 국면 있는 모형보다 아시아 금융위기의 불황예측에서 우수함을 밝혔다. 또한 본 논문에서는 경기상승과 경기불황이 있을 때 얼마나 지속되는가의 지속성(Duration)을 추정하였다. 이는 경기가 불황으로 움직일 때는 생산이 급격히 감소하는 반면 저점을 찍고 경기가 살아날 때는 생산이 천천히 오른다는 경기불황과 호황의 비대칭적 움직임을 테스트 하였다. 한편 마코프 국면 전환 모형의 결과와 전통적으로 많이 사용되어 왔던 프로빗(Probit) 모형의 결과를 비교 분석 하였다. 마코프 국면전환 모형이 프로빗 모형보다 경기변동의 예측력을 크게 향상시키지는 못하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.142-149
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• 2022

This study attempts to analyze the economic impact of the service robot industry using Input-Output analysis, which is conducted based on Demand-driven model, the Leontief price model, the Backward and Forward Linkage Effects, and the Exogenous Methods. In a Demand-driven model analysis, we can conclude that the service robot industry contains characteristics of both the manufacturing industry and the service industry, which causes a positive impact on the overall industry by compensating for the weaknesses of the two industries. The Leontief price analysis indicates when wages in the service robot industry increase, prices related to robot manufacturing also increase. Also, when profits in the service robot industry increase, prices related to service provision increase, too. The Backward and Forward Linkage Effects analysis shows that the service robot industry is highly sensitive to the current economic condition and has a great influence on the service industry. The service robot industry can highlight the aspect of service characteristics when the manufacturing industry is in recession and vice versa. In addition, the service robot industry can be regarded as a value-adding and domestic economy promoting industry which utilizes knowledge of information and communication technologies. It is important to foster the service robot industry in South Korea, which is in economic recession to provide an opportunity to stimulate the growth of both service and robot industries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권8호
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• pp.681-693
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• 2020

This study sees a critical gap in the previous body of research, which it seeks to fill; the disclosure of the unemployment ratio correlation has only been measured by the level of economic growth. This study is to add investment variables and government expenditure variables that objectively aim to measure the level of effectiveness in handling the unemployment ratio, which is then a measurement of the effectiveness of unemployment. Economic growth is measured by its impact on income inequality through empirical, conceptual relationships as a critical review and economic strategy for the future. The research uses secondary data on Indonesian macro and microeconomics since 2003-2018, then testing uses a quantitative approach to correlation, regression, and scatterplot. The results of this study show correlations between variables, and volatiles on the graphs show a similar trend. In other words, variables are bound together and support each other. The strategy of prioritizing the scale of government expenditure and investment to reach the target is the primary concern, so that the economic cycle can be optimal and equipped to face the possibility of an economic recession in the future. Many factors cause complex income inequality, though investment does not show a correlation to income inequality.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.115-143
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• 2023

In this paper, we address how the monetary authority should react to financial market status and exchange rate movements in a small open economy New Keynesian model with financial frictions due to asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. We show that the small economy with financial frictions is more susceptible to the exogenous shocks under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange regime. The small economy experiences a more prolonged and deeper economic recession under the fixed exchange rate regime than under the flexible exchange rate regime. The monetary policy taking into account external finance premium is better than the interest rate rule without considering the financial market status.

• 한국경영공학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.49-72
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• 2018

Before the financial crisis of 1997 in Korea, many industrial sectors across the country have achieved remarkable economic growth since the 1970s because of the development of large-scale equipment industries such as civil engineering, steel, construction and chemical industries. However, after the financial crisis, the economic growth rate has slowed down. Also, the global recession and the rise of China in the global business environment have led to a long-term recession in the national industry as a whole. In current economic environment, it is not easy for the companies even having excellent resources to continue its competitive advantage. Moreover, the chemical industry, which has an influence as a basic industry of other industries, misses the point of transformation into a high value-added industry, as shown in previous research. In order to meet the rapidly changing global business environment, Korean chemical companies should have a dynamic capabilities which to rapidly reallocate and consolidate the resources and capabilities they possess. The dynamic capabilities to convert, rearrange and develop the resources possessed by the company in the direction of creating high added value and to promptly search for, absorb, transform and fuse newly required capabilities and resources should be continuously applied to Korean chemical companies. It is the core competence to secure competitive advantage. In order to secure the dynamic capabilities of the company, the dynamic capabilities of individual employees should be strengthened and employees should be able to demonstrate their own leadership so that they can proactively work and self-manage in a positive direction. Previous studies have focused mainly on the dynamic capabilities of firms. However, the competence of the human resources that make up the enterprise leads to the capabilities of the enterprise, and the human resources themselves are also important corporate resources. This paper focuses on the dynamic capabilities of individuals and strives to clarify the causal relationship between dynamic capabilities, self-leadership, and organizational effectiveness which have direct or indirect effects on management outcome. The reasons for choosing the chemical industry are based on the fact that a domestic chemical companies are in a long-term recession, and they lacks a innovation and value creation capabilities. Also, chemical industry has a large impact on the national economy.

• 건설안전기술
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• 통권50호
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• pp.71-79
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• 2009

Construction companies economic to lighten the restrictions on safety education and training due to the domestic recession as long as the global downturn. With this, the Korean government restrictions, but the incidents are being sharply increased nowadays. The construction industry hazardous than any others, so, they insist to reinforce the training for incidents prevention, to be disregarded at the subcontractors of the bigger construction companies problems. According to these matters, this study hereby surveyed regarding their suggestions for the improvements of the training concepts through questionnaires below.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.37-41
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the recent resurgence of popularism and the possible impacts it may have on contemporary business and economics. Research design, data and methodology: This is an exploratory case study that examines the rise of popularism and identifies and analyzes the likely implications for contemporary business and economics. Results: Although populists tend to reject elitism, capitalism, economic globalization, and political establishment, their ethnocentric behavior is no different from those of the corrupt political and economic elites. Popularism does enable nationalism and protectionism and negatively impacts business and economic growth. Conclusions: Popularism existed for a long time, and this phenomenon will continue to exist as long as a triggered mechanism exist, e.g., income inequality, resurgence of immigration, recession, insufficient factors of resources and social welfare. The recent rise of popularism is not a fad or a short-lived anti-establishment and anti-elitism movements but, rather, a force to be reckoned with in the near future. The rise of economic nationalism limits international trade, integration, and cooperation. As a result, international capital, service, and product flows will decline, and countries and multinational corporations have to develop and restructure their international supply and value chain to cope with this phenomenon.

• 한국사회정책
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.233-263
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• 2018

이 글은 정부의 자살예방을 위한 노력이 효과적으로 작동하지 않은 것은 변화하는 자살의 위험양식과 그 메커니즘을 포착하지 못했기 때문이라는 판단 하에 한국 사회의 자살위험 발생 양식의 역동적 변화를 밝히고자 한다. 이를 위해 자살율이 급증한 1997-1998년과 2008-2009년 두 경제위기 시기 자살 위험양식의 차이를 젠더 관점에서 살펴봄으로써 다음과 같은 세 가지 주요 논의를 제공한다. 첫째, 두 경제위기 시기 자살률이 증가한 기전이 서로 달랐다. 1997년 외환위기는 대기업 상용직 중심의 실업이, 2008년 금융위기는 비정규직 중심의 노동빈곤이 자살을 증가시키는 핵심 메커니즘으로 작동했다. 둘째, 따라서 각 시기별 남성과 여성의 자살위험 양식이 다르다. 다시 말해 1997년 외환위기의 효과는 대기업 상용직으로 주로 일하던 남성에게, 2008년 금융위기의 효과는 노동빈곤의 처지에 주로 있는 여성에게 상대적으로 더 크게 영향을 미쳤다. 마지막으로, 두 시기 발견되는 자살 위험양식과 메커니즘의 젠더 차이는 여성차별적 노동시장구조와 남성주도적 사회정책의 결과로 이해 가능하다. 즉, 여성을 사회적 보호가 미치지 못하는 노동시장의 주변부에 위치시킴과 동시에, 오히려 이들을 위기 시기 완충요소로 활용한 결과이다. 결론적으로 자살의 원인은 노동시장과 사회정책이라는 근본적이고 사회적인 지점에 있으며, 이러한 위험이 젠더와 결합하면서 또 다른 차별로 결과한다는 점을 알 수 있다. 따라서 한국의 자살예방을 위한 정책적 전략은 젠더 관점으로 접근하는 것이 바람직하며, 인구집단 건강 관점에서 자살의 사회적 원인에 그 중심을 둘 것을 제안한다.

• 항공우주산업기술동향
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.12-22
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• 2010

금융위기로 불거진 불경기와 불확실성에서 기인한 국제 유가의 변동은 세계 항공기 시장에도 심각한 영향을 끼쳤다. 항공 수요의 급감과 운영비용의 증가를 가져왔으며, 이에 따라 항공기 수요의 특성과 양에 있어서도 변화가 발생하였다. 2000년대 중반의 경기 회복기조 속에서 항공기 주문과 인도가 급증하였으나, 2009년에는 주문량이 급감하였으며, 신형 항공기의 인도와 항공수요 급감에 따라 중고항공기 및 임대 시장 그리고 MRO 시장도 축소되었다. 이렇게 위축된 항공기 수요는 2009년 하반기 세계 항공물류 및 승객 수송의 회복으로 다시 반등을 보이고 있으며, 향후 수요는 단일 통로기가 광동체기의 수요를 인도할 것으로 보인다. 현재, 시장의 반등이 단기적으로 끝날지 지속적으로 이어질 지에 대해서 확답을 내릴 수는 없으나, 장기적으로는 지속적인 항공기 수요의 증가가 이어질 것으로 예상되며, 이러한 수요는 아시아, 아프리카 등의 신흥시장의 성장에 힘입을 것으로 기대된다.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권5호
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• pp.181-200
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• 2022

After the COVID-19 pandemic, a global economic downturn and a recession in the shipping market are expected, it is important for domestic shipping companies to establish appropriate strategy in response to the recession. Accordingly, domestic shipping companies should grow into integrated logistics companies that combine shipping and logistics in the future. And for this purpose, it is necessary to actively promote logistics integration with external shipping and logistics companies. This paper presents the direction of logistics integration for domestic shipping companies to develop as integrated logistics operators with competitiveness in the global shipping market, and presents detailed alternatives. Domestic shipping companies lack the infrastructure such as ships, port terminals, and warehouses, so they have a weak capacity to independently promote logistics integration. At the shipping company level, a logistics integration promotion strategy should be established, and accordingly, logistics infrastructure, service network, and logistics integration operating system should be established. The government should provide tax benefits for logistics integration, financial support for M&As led by domestic shipping companies, a standardized information sharing system, and preparation of educational courses for nurturing digital manpower.