• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제27권5호
• /
• pp.153-166
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
• /
• 제24권6호
• /
• pp.17-22
• /
• 2024

Software cost and schedule estimation is usually based on the estimated size of the software. Advanced estimation techniques also make use of the diverse factors viz, nature of the project, staff skills available, time constraints, performance constraints, technology required and so on. Usually, estimation is based on an estimation model prepared with the help of experienced project managers. Estimation of software cost is predominantly a crucial activity as it incurs huge economic and strategic investment. However accurate estimation still remains a challenge as the algorithmic models used for Software Project planning and Estimation doesn't address the true dynamic nature of Software Development. This paper presents an efficient approach using the contemporary Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) augmented with the desirable feature of fuzzy logic to address the uncertainty and flexibility associated with the cost drivers (Effort Multiplier Factor). The approach has been validated and interpreted by project experts and shows convincing results as compared to simple algorithmic models.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
• /
• 제11권1호
• /
• pp.329-339
• /
• 2011

본 연구는 비영어권 OECD 21개 국가들을 대상으로 영어능력과 경제활동(국가별 무역량, R&D투자 등), 그리고 경제 성장률과의 관계 분석을 통하여 영어능력이 국가의 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 규명하고자 하였다. 단순회귀분석(OLS)과 표면상무관회귀분석(Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation: SURE)의 기법을 사용하여 추정한 결과 체코, 핀란드, 그리고 폴란드를 제외한 여타 국가들에서는 영어능력이 직접적으로 경제성장에 정(+)의 효과를 미친다는 통계학적 유의성이 발견되지 않았다. 그러나 영어 능력은 무역량 증진의 기여를 통하여 간접적으로 경제성장에 영향을 끼치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 영어 능력은 경제성장에 있어서 하나의 필요조건이지 충분조건은 아닌 것으로 결론 지울 수 있다. 더불어 영어 능력은 최소한의 물적 자본과, 기술축적, 정치적 안정, 그리고 훌륭한 통치를 보완하는 충분한 보완재 역할을 담당한다면 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 끼칠 것이 예상된다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.47-55
• /
• 2001

직접(direct) 추정법, 합성(synthetic) 추정법, 복합(composite) 추정법, 베이즈(Bayes) 추정법 등 소지역 추정법들의 효율성을 비교, 분석하고자 '98 경제활동 인구조사에서 경기도의 실제 자료를 이용하여 각 시부지역의 실업자수 추정값의 편의(bias)와 평균제곱 오차(MSE)를 모의실험을 통해 계산하였다.

• 해양환경안전학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 해양환경안전학회 2018년도 공동국제학술발표회
• /
• pp.126-126
• /
• 2018

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.1694-1714
• /
• 2007

This study is to estimate economic benefits of Standardization R&D of Urban Rail System. Benefit was to be realized through standardization of main areas such as train vehicle, railway, power system, and signal system. To derive and calculate the quantitative benefit, the sources of economic impact was divided into three dimensions -operational cost savings, import substitution, and safety effects. Economic effect of the standardization was categorized based on a modified BSC model. Economic benefits from time and labor savings are converted into cost savings. Import substitution and investment multiplier effect have a positive impact in addition to cost savings. The estimation of the standardization R&D of Urban Rail System was conservatively estimated 370 billion Won. Cost effectiveness of standardized safety system was conservatively translated into economic benefit in this analysis. This study provides a practical guide to economic evaluation of the various railway R&D projects.

• 기술혁신학회지
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.772-793
• /
• 2010

본 논문은 공표데이터들(산업연관표, 관련미시통계)을 이용하여 2005년 우리나라의 방사선이용의 경제규모를 추정하였다. 방사선이용의 경제규모는 방사선 이용이 국민들의 후생과 복지 중진에 기여하는 부분적 정량적으로 도출한 것이므로 경제체제 내의 방대한 분야에서 다양한 형태로 사용되는 방사선이용의 전체 모습을 보여준다. 추정결과에 따르면 2005년의 방사선이용의 경제규모는 6조 2,971억원이며, 이는 GDP(851조 9,822억원)의 0.74%에 해당한다. 이는 미국 또는 일본의 방사선이용의 규모와 비교하면 낮은 수준이다. 분야별 방사선이용의 경제규모는 공업분야에서 5조 7,753억원(GDP 대비 0.68%), 농업분야에서 1,705억원(GDP 대비 0.020%), 의학 의료분야에서 3,513억원(GDP 대비 0.04%)이다. 공업분야에서 방사선이 가장 활발하게 이용되는 것으로 추정되었다. 그러나 우리나라의 연구구조의 변화를 고려할 때에 의학 의료분야에서의 이용이 보다 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 우리나라의 GDP에서 방사선이용의 경제규모가 차지하는 비중이 0.74%에 이른다는 추정 결과는 방사선이용이 국민생활에 기여하고 있는 정도를 새롭게 인식시킨다. 방사선이 이용되는 분야를 규명하고, 방사선이 국민의 후생을 향상시키는 것에 기여한다는 것을 명확하게 하는 것은 국민들이 방사선에 대해서 갖고 있는 부정적 이미지를 경감시키고 수용성을 높이는 것에 기여한다.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제22권2호
• /
• pp.201-217
• /
• 2015

In this paper, we report computational testing result to examine the validity of firm's bankruptcy risk estimation through quantification of supply chain risk. Supply chain risk in this study refers to upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk, To assess the firm's risk affected by supply chain risk, we adopt unit of analysis as industry level. since supply and demand relationships of the firm could be generalized by the industry input-output table and the availability of various valid economic indicators which are chronologically calculated. The research model to estimate firm's risk level is the linear regression model to assess the industry bankruptcy risk estimation of the focal firm's industry with the independent variables which could quantitatively reflect demand and supply risk of the industry. The publicly announced macro economic indicators are selected as the candidate independent variables and validated through empirical testing. To validate our approach, in this paper, we confined our research scope to steel industry sector and its related industry sectors, and implemented the research model. The empirical testing results provide useful insights to further refine the research model as the valid forecasting mechanism to capture firm's future risk estimation more accurately by adopting supply chain industry risk aspect, in conjunction with firm's financial and other managerial factors.

• 한국관개배수논문집
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.3-16
• /
• 2010

The subject of externality of agricultural water supply has been discussed in the OECD AC ( Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Agriculture Committee) while argued between monsoon Asian developing countries and the agricultural product export nations (Australia, EU, etc). It argued that a 'positive' approach to multifunctionality views agriculture as an economic activity with multiple, interconnected outputs or effects, and a 'normative' approach interprets multifunctionality in terms of the multiple roles assigned to agriculture. and the agricultural product export nations insisted 'negative' approach to externality of agricultural water supply like causing water pollution. So, in this study, define the externalities (positive, negative and economic, environmental) in terms of the agricultural water supply and calculate benefit and cost each the externalities by cost estimation. As results, BC is calculated to 1.28 which means that it is more economical to agricultural water supply and shows that although the negative exernalities comes out while supply the agricultural water, it still more valuable to supply the agricultural water.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.265-280
• /
• 2001

Estimation of the edge of a distribution has many important applications. It is related to classification, cluster analysis, neural network, and statistical image recovering. The problem also arises in measuring production efficiency in economic systems. Three most promising nonparametric estimators in the existing literature are introduced. Their statistical properties are provided, some of which are new. Themes of future study are also discussed.