• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Estimation

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Estimation of Fertilizer Demand (비료수요(肥料需要)에 대(對)한 전망(展望))

  • Oh, Wang-Keun;Lee, Choon-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.2-15
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    • 1982
  • In this report, a total domestic demand for major commercial fertilizer for crop production in Korea up to 1996 was estimated. The agricultural products and area for demand for both 1982 and 1986 was quoted from the estimate of the 5th Five-year Economic plan. And the demands estimated for 1991 and 1996 reflected possible changes of diet from cereal to meat and their indirect effects on the increase of cereal consumption. As the advanced countries followed, consequently, the demands for soybean, corn and other feed grains were expected to be increased as well as the land for growing those crops. 1. Total annual demands for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers were estimated 1,050,000M/T, 1,110,000M/T, 1,280,000M/T and 1,010,000M/T for the year 1982, 1986, 1991, and 1996 respectively. 2. It was assumed that there would be difficulties in self-sufficiency of grains at the cost of the maximum utilization of land and fertilizers in 1996. 3. It was clear that the increase of the productivity per unit area is possible by improving the conditions of arable land which could resulted a self-sufficiency of food in Korea. As a consequence, the demand for fertilizers at that time would exceed the level of estimates. 4. The recent decrease in demand for commercial fertilizers (currently estimated 850,000M/T) was due to an inadequate application of fertilizers for respective crop reqirement. This inadequacy should be checked and encouraged the consumptions of fertilizers to be increased by supporting the price of grain.

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The Development of a Model for Selecting Method of Entry for Apartment in Remodeling an Underground Parking Lot (지하주차장 리모델링 공사시 주동진입방법 선정 모델 개발)

  • Song, Nak-Hyun;Jung, In-Su;Lee, Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2009
  • It is expected that the number of apartment complexes in Korea that are over 20 years old will rapidly increase to more than 3,500,000. Consequently, the remodeling of these buildings is being revitalized throughout the country. Among the requirements for such remodeling, the expansion of parking lots has considerable weight. When enlarging a parking lot, the access route from an underground floor to the main building (i.e., the means of entry into the main building) determines the possibility of vertical enlargement for elevators, the size of the parking lot, the construction period, and construction expenses, etc. When enlarging an underground parking lot of an apartment complex, the access between the main building and the parking lot, as well as the inhabitants' requirements for entering the main building, are generally determined based on the designer's experience, rather than on the exact estimation of the peculiarity of the complex. In order to resolve such a problem, when enlarging an underground parking lot, a systematic and rational method is needed for selecting the means of entry into the main building. In this study, a selection model is derived for the method of selecting an access route into the main building when constructing an underground parking lot, in order to provide a reasonable decision-making process. A research method was investigated for determining the access route into the main building when enlarging a parking lot. On the basis of research carried out through in-depth interviews with experts, the characteristics for each means of entry into the main building were analyzed and the factors affecting the selection of the access route were deduced. The affecting factors selected were construction efficiency, convenience efficiency and economic efficiency. Weight values were then estimated for the selected affecting factors by applying the AHP method. Results showed that convenience efficiency, which gained the highest value, is the most important factor in selecting the means of entry into the main building. The most suitable means of entry into the main building was also suggested after estimating the applicability of the site by selecting complexes with remodeling possibility. This study will be applied as a reference for selecting the means of entry into the main building when constructing an underground parking lot particularly for older apartment complexes.

High Density Tilapia Culture in a Recirculating Water System without Filter Bed (무여과순환수 탱크 이용 Tilapia의 고밀도 사육실험)

  • KIM In-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 1983
  • An experiment on the rearing of tilapia stocked in closed recirculating tanks eliminating biological filter beds was carried out at the Fish Culture Experiment Station of the National Fisheries University of Pusan, from May 18 through October 21, 1982, and the growth rates, feed conversion, water quality, spawning prevention and space utilization efficiency were discussed. Finally discussed is the feasibility on the establishment of commercial production units. On the water quality, the water temperature ranged from $22.8^{\circ}C\;to\;29.1^{\circ}C$, and total ammonia arround 10 ppm or slightly up. Maintaining phytoplankton bloom was not successful probably because of the active consumption by the heavily stocked tilapia. Several attempts were made by changing the culture water with green water from a nearby earthen pond with results of fading-away in a couple of days. Feed conversions were relatively high ranging from 0.9 to 1.2 except for experiment 1 when the fish were not fully recovered from weakened wintering state. The feed used was partly laboratory prepared $25\%$ protein diet and mostly commercially available $39\%$ protein carp feed. Spawning was completely controlled during the experiment, resulting from density effect, which ranged from 10kg to 40.7kg per square meter with water depth of 0.5 to 0.6m. Space utilization efficiency was very high. Daily net production from the experiment division 3, which showed the highest result, was 6.206 kg per tank, which is calculated 3,235 metric tons per hectare per year, This time, water temperature ranged from 27.8 to $29.1^{circ}C$, average being $28.4^{circ}C$, and total ammonia arround 10 ppm. An estimation for the commercial set-up of the production system based on the results of experiment divisions which had initial stocking rate $15\;kg/m^2$ or up, is made. If the total facility, 8 tanks comprising $56\;m^2$ in surface area, is used for the present study, the yield would become 5,639 kg from 200 day rearing, which would be possible under double sheets vinyl house without additional heating, and it is thought feasible in the economic view point, when 10 or more units are operated.

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A Study on Analysis of Investment Effects of Farm Mechanization, Korea -Mainly on the Case Study of Saemaeul Farm Mechanization Groups in Nonsan Area, Chungnam Province- (농업기계화(農業機械化)의 투자효과분석(投資效果分析)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) -충남논산지역(忠南論山地域) 새마을 기계화영농단(機械化營農團)을 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Gwan Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.164-185
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    • 1987
  • The Korean economy has been developed rapidly in the course of implementing the five year economic development plans since 1962. Accordingly the industrial and employment structure have been changed from the traditional agriculture to modem industrial economy. In the course of implementing export oriented industrialization policies, rural farm economy has been encountered labour shortage owing to rural farm population drain to urban areas, rural wage hike and pressure on farm operation costs, and possibility of farm productivity decrease. To cope with the above problems the Korean government has supplied farm machinery such as power tillers, tractors, transplanters, binders, combines, dryers and etc. by means of the favorable credit support and subsidies. The main objectives of this study are to identify the investment effects of farm mechanization such as B/C and Internal Rate of Return by machinery and operation patterns, changes of labour requirement per 10a for rice culture since 1965, partial farm budget of rice with and without mechanization, and estimation labour input with full mechanization. To achieve the objectives Saemaeul farm mechanization groups, common ownership and operation, and farms with private ownership and operation were surveyed mainly in Nonsan granary area, Chungnam province. The results of this study are as follows 1. The national average of labor input per 10a of paddy has decreased from 150.1Hr in 1965 to 87.2Hr in 1985 which showes 42% decrease of labour inputs. On the other hand the hours of labour input in Nonsan area have also decreased from 150.1Hr to 92.8Hr, 38% of that in 1965, during the same periods. 2. The possible labor saving hours per 10a of Paddy was estimated at 60 hours by substituting machine power for labor forces in the works of plowing, puddling, transplanting, harvesting and threshing, transporting and drying The labor savings were derived from 92.8 hours in 1986 deducting 30 hours of labor input with full mechanization in Nonsan area. 3. Social benefits of farm mechanization were estimated at 124,734won/10a including increment of rice (10%): 34,064won,labour saving: 65,800won,savings of conventional farm implements: 18,000 won and savings of animal power: 6,870won. 4. Rental charges by works prevailing in the area were 12,000won for land preparation, 15,000won for transplanting with seedlings, 19,500won for combine works and 6,000won for drying paddy. 5. Farm income per 10a of paddy with and without mechanization were amounted to 247,278won and 224,768won respectively. 6. Social rate of return of the machinery were estimated at more than 50% in all operation patterns. On the other hand internal rate of return of the machinery except tractors were also more than 50% but IRR of tractors by operation patterns were equivalent to 0 to 9%. From the view point of farmers financial status, private owner-operation of tractors is considered uneconomical. Tractor operation by Saemaeul mechanization groups would be economical considering the government subsidy, 40% of tractor price. 7. Farmers recommendations for the government that gained through field operation of farm machinery are to train maintenance technology for rural youth, to standardize the necessary parts of machinery, to implement price tag system, to intercede spare parts and provide marketing information to farmers by rural institutions as RDA,NACF,GUN office and FLIA.

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A Study on Economic Value of Daegu Arboretum based on Contingent Valuation Methods (가상가치평가법을 이용한 대구수목원의 경제적 가치평가)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Lee, Kee-Cheol;Lee, Hyun-Taek;Ryu, Byong-Ro;Kim, Dong-Pil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.787-798
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    • 2011
  • An arboretum is defined as a collection of facilities that conserve plant species by surveying, collecting, and proliferating and preserving the plants in nature, perform diverse researches on plants and display the plants in exhibition spaces or outdoors as well as provide the public with educational programs and refreshment spaces according to the laws concerned. The public, however, recognizes the exhibition and education functions on plants of arboretum more importantly compared with the roles to survey, collect, and proliferate plants as regulated by the laws. In particular, arboretum plays a role to offer a pivotal educational place in urban area where the public can obtain an hands-on experience and understanding on a wide range of plant species and natural environment. The study aims to estimate the non market environmental values of Daegu Arboretum operated by Daegu Metropolitan City government by using the Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM), which yields the current monetary estimates for the arboretum. The value estimation was undertaken by using the Double-Bound Dichotomous Choice (DBDC) method, and each estimated value was derived from respective functions based on a logit distribution known to include relatively stable estimates according to the shape of the distribution. Considering the statistical fitness test results, the author estimated the amounts of the Willingness To Pay (WTP) such as mean WTP of 12,718 KRW, median WTP of 11,033 KRW, and truncated mean WTP of 11,468 KRW, which represented the annual recreational values per a person visiting Daegu Arboretum respectively. The analysis showed that Daegu Arboretum created the annual environmental values which were estimated to be approximately 16 to 19 billion KRW. The study also has an implication that the valuation method for the environment of Daegu Arboretum may be effectively applied for estimating the values of other types of environmental goods by altering the locations or goods to be analyzed.

Estimation of Optimum Raate of Cattle Slurry Application for Forage Production Using Idled Rice Paddy I. The Effect of cattle slurry application on annual dry matter yield in reed canarygrass. (유휴 논토양에서 조사료 생산을 위한 적정 액상구비 시용수준의 추정 I. 액상구비의 시용이 Reed Canarygrass의 연 건물수량에 미치는 영향)

  • 이주삼;조익환;김성규;안종호
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 1994
  • This study was investigated for the purposes of securing forage resource using idled rice paddy recently increased in accordance to a current trend of farm products' liberalization and also of presevation of environment by using cattle sluny as liquid manure, which is seriously increasing these days. In this study, mean annual dry matter yield and its seasonal variation with reed canarygrass, and a optimum rate of cattle sluny application were investigated. The results are as follows: 1. According to the conditions of cutting frequencies(3, 4 and 5 cutting per year), mean annual dry matter yield was recorded from 8.9 tons to 10.9 tons per hectare and was the highest at 3 cutting frequency. 2. The use of cattle sluny with the levels of between 300 and 360 kg N per hectare showed a significantly higher mean annual dry matter yield than that of the control (non-fertilization). 3. The treatments with 3 and 4 cutting frequencies(90 kg Nhdyear, 120 kg Nhdyear) recorded higher dry matter yields than the control of the former level by 1.23 tons and 2.34 tons respectively and in the treatment of 5 cutting frequency, the second level with cattle sluny of 300 kg Nhdyear showed an increased dry matter yield of 2.11 tons compared to the former level(l50 kg Nhdyear). With regards to nitrogen efficiency, one kg of nitrogen is applied to 13.7, 19.4 and 14.1 kg of dry matter yields in the conditions of 3, 4 and 5 cutting frequencies respectively. 4. In view of seasonal variance of annual dry matter yield, the second cut in 3 cutting frequency, the third cut in 4 cutting frequency and the third in 5 cutting frequency showed the highest ratio as 42, 37 and 32% respectively compared to the total. 5. Under the conditions of this study, the 'Input-Output curve' from 5 cutting frequency was the closest to sigmaformed process(i=0.9993) of various cutting frequencies, and the maximum marginal yield in the treatment was obtained at the level of 250 kg Nha with cattle sluny. The economic level of cattle sluny was between 371.0 and 402.2 kg N and the highest dry matter yield was obtained at 489.3 kg Mdyear in the same treatment

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Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Swine (종돈의 경제 형질의 유전모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, C.S.;Lee, I.J.;Cho, K.H.;Seo, K.S.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameter of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire breeds based on the on-farm performance tested records of 57,316 pigs under the supervision of Korean Animal Improvement Association from 1992 to 1999. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF - REML. The result obtained in this study was summarized as follow ; The estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire were 0.46${\sim}$0.65 for the average backfat thickness, 0.28${\sim}$0.31 for loin depth, 0.50~0.60 for percent lean, 0.45${\sim}$0.55 for the average daily gain, 0.38${\sim}$0.50 for age at 90kg, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90㎏ for the three breeds were -0.12${\sim}$-0.01, -0.81${\sim}$-0.76, 0.34${\sim}$0.46, and -0.41${\sim}$-0.33, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.12${\sim}$0.23, 0.03${\sim}$0.21, and -0.17${\sim}$-0.03, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.37${\sim}$-0.26 and 0.26~0.35, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg was -0.97${\sim}$-0.95. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg estimated for the three breeds were -0.17${\sim}$0.03, -0.79${\sim}$-0.69, 0.24${\sim}$0.45 and -0.41${\sim}$-0.19, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.11~0.19, 0.23 and -0.30~-0.20, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficients of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.36${\sim}$-0.13 and 0.10~0.34, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average daily gain with age at 90㎏ was -0.96${\sim}$-0.95.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits and Profit by Milk Production of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 경제형질과 착유량에 따른 소득의 유전모수 추정)

  • Noh, Jae-Kwang;Choi, Yun-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Tae-Jeong;Na, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Ju-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Hyung;Shin, Ji-Sub;Do, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2012
  • The data including milk yields, fat and protein percent for 628,395 heads collected by National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, 15 type traits and final score for 62,262 heads collected by Korea Animal Improvement Association, which were born in 1998 to 2004, and net profits calculated from milk price and raising expenses of individuals were used to estimate genetic parameters. The highest positive genetic correlation, 0.81, was shown between body depth (BD) and loin strength (SR). Genetic correlations between body depth (BD) and udder depth (UD), front teat placement (TP) and front teat length (TL) were -0.23, which were lowest among the linear type traits. Furthermore, medium level of negative genetic correlations were shown the milk yield with milk contents rate traits. Mostly low level of positive genetic correlations were shown between the milk traits and linear score traits except milk yield and stature. Most of the genetic correlations of between the linear score traits and net profit were low level of positive or negative genetic correlations. Among the genetic correlations, body depth (BD), angularity (DF) and rear attachment width (UW), and final score (FS) with net profit were high as 0.17, 0.17, 0.18 and 0.18, respectively. Finally all of the genetic correlations between net profit and milk traits were positive and higher than the linear traits with positive genetic correlations. The results of this study suggest that net profit has been related with the linear traits, such as body depth (BD), angularity (DF) and rear attachment width (UW) traits, and furthermore, milk traits including yield and contents rates influence positively and greatly on net profit.

Estimation on the Consumption Patterns of Potentially Hazardous Foods with High Consumer Risk Perception (식중독 위험성 인식이 높은 잠재적 위해식품 섭취실태조사)

  • Park, Hee Jin;Min, Kyung Jin;Park, Na Yoon;Cho, Joon Il;Lee, Soon Ho;Hwang, In Gyun;Heo, Jin Jae;Yoon, Ki Sun
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2013
  • This study investigated the frequency, amount and consumption patterns of 50 potentially hazardous foods (PHF) along with consumers' risk perceptions towards PHF in Korea. A quantitative survey was performed from May through August by trained interviewers, surveying 1,000 adults aged over 18 who were randomly selected from six major provinces in Korea. Consumers perceived seafood, including shellfish, mussel, sashimi and sushi, as the top foods with the highest risk, followed by raw sliced beef. The food with the highest frequency intake per month was leafy vegetables, which is used to wrap other foods, followed by blanched vegetables, fried chicken, etc. The group of middle aged individuals with economic stability had the highest frequency intake of sashimi and sushi. Respondents living in small regions consume greater PHF portions at once. Food safety education with regard to the risk of PHF is essential for consumers, with high frequent intake of PHF.