• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.731-740
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.29-39
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• 2018

Purpose - With the improvement of people's living standards, traveling abroad has become a common way for people to release the pressure of life and work. In economics, this kind of way can affect the international trade. Because of this background, this paper sets BRICS countries as an example to explore the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Research design, data, and Methodology - The annual time series data sets form 1998 to 2016 are used to perform an empirical analysis under a series of econometric approaches such as the Phillips-Perron test and the Engle-Granger two-step test. In this paper, the cross-border tourism and the bilateral trade will be used to conduct an empirical analysis based on the econometric approaches to analyze the impact of cross-border tourism on bilateral trade. Results - The finding of this paper show that there is a long-run relationship between cross-border tourism and bilateral trade in this sample. Moreover, the cross-border tourism is the Granger causality of bilateral trade. Namely, the cross-border tourism can promote the development of bilateral trade. Conclusions - In short, the evidences that this paper presents show that the cross-border tourism is a driving factor that impacts the bilateral trade in the sample of BRICS countries.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 2016

Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.6646-6651
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• 2014

This study was carried out to find the social welfare effects of agricultural outlook information service for fruit in Korea. The goals of an agricultural outlook information service are to improve the efficiency of the agricultural product market, and stabilize the farmer's income and consumer price. This paper introduces the results of econometric analysis for the effects of social welfare benefits. According to the results of econometric analysis for the citrus industry, the effects of the social welfare benefits were estimated to be 15,228 million KRW on apples (ratio of the total revenue, 1.5%), 3,154 million KRW on pears (ratio of the total revenue, 1.8%), 1,936 million KRW on peaches (ratio of the total revenue, 0.9%), 5,211 million KRW on grapes (ratio of the total revenue, 1.0%), 44,976 million KRW on citrus (ratio of the total revenue, 5.4%), and 2,590 million KRW on sweet persimmon (ratio of the total revenue, 0.8%) in 2012.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.83 no.2
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• pp.133-147
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• 1994

Wastepaper recycling has significant implications not only in providing scarce raw material input for the paper industry but in environmental concerns such as reducing solid waste disposal, energy conservation and preservation of forest resources. The objectives of this study was (1) to develop an econometric model of demand for and supply of wastepaper, (2) to forecast wastepaper consumption and price to the year 2000 applying the econometric models estimated and (3) to estimate the elasticity of variables which are included in the wastepaper supply and demand equations. In this study wastepaper was classified into three groups, old newsprint, old corrugated and mixed For each group such as demand and supply equation were estimated. The demand equations were estimated as a function of paper and paper product consumption and wholesale price index and supply equations as a function of wastepaper price, one year lagged paper and paperproduct consumption and transportation price. Applying the econometric models to forcasting results in the future consumption and supply of wastepaper projected as 11.645 million MT and 7.396 million MT in 2000, respectively. The rate of wastepaper self-supply is forcasted about 63.5% in 2000. Especially, the rate of old neswprint self-supply is predicted about 16% which means about 2.2 million MT of old newsprint should be imported from foreign countries. Lastly, some policy measures to promote wastepaper recycling rate based upon economic and physical characteristics of wastepaper and market structure are suggested.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.222-233
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• 2010

This paper aims at predicting the BDI from Jan. to Dec. 2010 using such econometric techniues of the univariate time series as stochastic ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the two ARIMA models and five Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through December 2009. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME). The RMSE and MAE indicate that the ARIMA-type models outperform the random walk model And the mean errors for all models are small in magnitude relative to the MAE's, indicating that all models don't have a tendency of overpredicting or underpredicting systematically in forecasting. The pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are expected to be 2,820 at the end of 2010 compared with the optimistic forecasts of 4,230.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.3-16
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• 1982

Under the assumption that the size of military expenditures is largely determined by economic potential and military requirements as well, this paper conducts an econometric analysis for the purpose of predicting Korea's military expenditures using a technique of pooling time-series data (1967-1976) and cross-section data(95 countries) on the percentage of military expenditures to GNP (Cross National Product) and economic growth rate.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.69-94
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• 2017

This paper re-examines the impacts an institutional arrangement may have on labour market outcomes such as the employment and unemployment rates. Based on the results from a generalized econometric model, the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits, organized labour and active labour market policy have effects on a labour market in line with previous findings. However, taxes on labour and the degree of employment protection are found to affect neither the employment rate nor the unemployment rate. Thus, some findings in this paper validate earlier findings, whereas others do not.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.39-52
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• 1988

This study suggests the diffusion models to predict the spread pattern of telecommunications services. The extended models containing both (either) price and (or) income varible are offered on the basis of Bass model. At the empirical test using Korean telephone data, the models with either price or income varible are the best forecasting model under apriori selected econometric criteria.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.814-821
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 인터넷전화의 잠재 가입자를 대상으로 이들의 전화 사용 행태 및 사회-인구 통계적 특성 검토하여 이를 인터넷전화의 가입 확률로 연결하는 모형을 개발한다. 이때 가입 예측모형은 설문결과에 이산 프로빗 모형을 적용함으로써 구축하였다. 모형의 결과에 따르면 인터넷전화서비스 가입에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치는 변수는 월 전화요금, 월 전화사용회수, 채택하고 있는 전화요금제, 현재 가입 중인 전화회사, 가구 의사결정자의 나이 등인 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 위의 각 요인의 부호는 관련 분야의 전문가들의 일반적인 견해 및 상식과 일치하는 것으로 나타났다.