• Title/Summary/Keyword: Econometric

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An Analysis of Relationship between Social Sentiments and Cryptocurrency Price: An Econometric Analysis with Big Data (소셜 감성과 암호화폐 가격 간의 관계 분석: 빅데이터를 활용한 계량경제적 분석)

  • Sangyi Ryu;Jiyeon Hyun;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.91-111
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    • 2019
  • Around the end of 2017, the investment fever for cryptocurrencies-especially Bitcoin-has started all over the world. Especially, South Korea has been at the center of this phenomenon. Sinceit was difficult to find the profitable investment opportunities, people have started to see the cryptocurrency markets as an alternative investment objects. However, the cryptocurrency fever inSouth Korea is mostly based on psychological phenomenon due to expectation of short-term profits and social atmosphere rather than intrinsic value of the assets. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze influence of people's social sentiment on price movement of cryptocurrency. The data was collected for 181 days from Nov 1st, 2017 to Apr 30th, 2018, especially focusing on Bitcoin-related post in Twitter along with price of Bitcoin in Bithumb/UPbit. After the collected data was refined into neutral, positive and negative words through sentiment analysis, the refined neutral, positive, and negative words were put into regression model in order to find out the impacts of social sentiments on Bitcoin price. After examining the relationship by the regression analyses and Granger Causality tests, we found that the positive sentiments had a positive relationship with Bitcoin price, while the negative words had a negative relation with it. Also, the causality test results show that there exist two-way causalities between social sentiment and Bitcoin price movement. Therefore, we were able to conclude that the Bitcoin investors'behaviors are affected by the changes of social sentiments.

A Study on Sentiment Score of Healthcare Service Quality on the Hospital Rating (의료 서비스 리뷰의 감성 수준이 병원 평가에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jee-Eun Choi;Sodam Kim;Hee-Woong Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.111-137
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    • 2018
  • Considering the increase in health insurance benefits and the elderly population of the baby boomer generation, the amount consumed by health care in 2020 is expected to account for 20% of US GDP. As the healthcare industry develops, competition among the medical services of hospitals intensifies, and the need of hospitals to manage the quality of medical services increases. In addition, interest in online reviews of hospitals has increased as online reviews have become a tool to predict hospital quality. Consumers tend to refer to online reviews even when choosing healthcare service providers and after evaluating service quality online. This study aims to analyze the effect of sentiment score of healthcare service quality on hospital rating with Yelp hospital reviews. This study classifies large amount of text data collected online primarily into five service quality measurement indexes of SERVQUAL theory. The sentiment scores of reviews are then derived by SERVQUAL dimensions, and an econometric analysis is conducted to determine the sentiment score effects of the five service quality dimensions on hospital reviews. Results shed light on the means of managing online hospital reputation to benefit managers in the healthcare and medical industry.

High Suicidal Risk Group of Elderly: Identification of Causal Factors and Development of Predictive Model (자살 고위험군 노인: 원인 파악 및 예측 모델 개발)

  • Gayeon Park;Woosik Shin;Hee-Woong Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.59-81
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    • 2023
  • Elderly suicide problem has become worse in South Korea. With a rapid aging of the population, the trend of suicide among the elderly is expected to accelerate, preventing elderly suicide has been considered an important societal problem. Thus, we aim to investigate various factors that explain suicidal ideation and to develop a predictive model for suicidal ideation in the context of elderly people in South Korea. To this end, this study contributes to addressing the elderly suicide problem. By using seven-year panel data from the Korea Welfare Panel Survey, we extract various potential causal factors for elderly suicidal ideation based on interpersonal theory of suicide and social disorganization theory. Then a panel logit model was employed to assess the impacts of potential factors on suicidal ideation and deep learning and machine learning algorithms were used to develop a predictive model for suicidal ideation of elderly people. The results of our study provide practical implications for preventing elderly suicide by identifying causal factors of suicidal ideation and a high suicidal risk group of the elderly. This study sheds light on synergy of mixed methodology and provides various academic implications.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

Simultaneous Effect between eWOM and Revenues: Korea Movie Industry (온라인 구전과 영화 매출 간 상호영향에 관한 연구: 한국 영화 산업을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Jungho;Shim, Bum Jun;Kim, Byung-Do
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • Motion pictures are so typical experience goods that consumers tend to look for more credible information. Hence, movie audiences consider movie viewers' reviews more important than the information provided by the film distributor. Recently many portal sites allow consumers to post their reviews and opinions so that other people check the number of consumer reviews and scores before going to the theater. There are a few previous researches studying the electronic word of mouth(eWOM) effect in the movie industry. They found that the volume of eWOM influenced the revenue of the movie significantly but the valence of eWOM did not affect it much (Liu 2006). The goal of our research is also to investigate the eWOM effects in general. But our research is different from the previous studies in several aspects. First, we study the eWOM effect in Korean movie industry. In other words, we would like to check whether we can generalize the results of the previous research across countries. The similar econometric models are applied to Korean movie data that include 746,282 consumer reviews on 439 movies. Our results show that both the valence(RATING) and the volume(LNMSG) of the eWOM influence weekly movie revenues. This result is different from the previous research findings that the volume only influences the revenue. We conjectured that the difference of self construal between Asian and American culture may explain this difference (Kitayama 1991). Asians including Koreans have more interdependent self construal than American, so that they are easily affected by other people's thought and suggestion. Hence, the valence of the eWOM affects Koreans' choice of the movie. Second, we find the critical defect of the previous eWOM models and, hence, attempt to correct it. The previous eWOM model assumes that the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) is an independent variable affecting the movie revenue (LNREV). However, the revenue can influence the volume of the eWOM. We think that treating the volume of eWOM as an independent variable a priori is too restrictive. In order to remedy this problem, we employed a simultaneous equation in which the movie revenue and the volume of the eWOM can affect each other. That is, our eWOM model assumes that the revenue (LNREV) and the volume of eWOM (LNMSG) have endogenous relationship where they influence each other. The results from this simultaneous equation model showed that the movie revenue and the eWOM volume interact each other. The movie revenue influences the eWOM volume for the entire 8 weeks. The reverse effect is more complex. Both the volume and the valence of eWOM affect the revenue in the first week, but only the volume affect the revenue for the rest of the weeks. In the first week, consumers may be curious about the movie and look for various kinds of information they can trust, so that they use the both the quantity and quality of consumer reviews. But from the second week, the quality of the eWOM only affects the movie revenue, implying that the review ratings are more important than the number of reviews. Third, our results show that the ratings by professional critics (CRATING) had negative effect to the weekly movie revenue (LNREV). Professional critics often give low ratings to the blockbuster movies that do not have much cinematic quality. Experienced audiences who watch the movie for fun do not trust the professionals' ratings and, hence, tend to go for the low-rated movies by them. In summary, applied to the Korean movie ratings data and employing a simultaneous model, our results are different from the previous eWOM studies: 1) Koreans (or Asians) care about the others' evaluation quality more than quantity, 2) The volume of eWOM is not the cause but the result of the revenue, 3) Professional reviews can give the negative effect to the movie revenue.

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An Analysis of the Internal Marketing Impact on the Market Capitalization Fluctuation Rate based on the Online Company Reviews from Jobplanet (직원을 위한 내부마케팅이 기업의 시가 총액 변동률에 미치는 영향 분석: 잡플래닛 기업 리뷰를 중심으로)

  • Kichul Choi;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.39-62
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    • 2018
  • Thanks to the growth of computing power and the recent development of data analytics, researchers have started to work on the data produced by users through the Internet or social media. This study is in line with these recent research trends and attempts to adopt data analytical techniques. We focus on the impact of "internal marketing" factors on firm performance, which is typically studied through survey methodologies. We looked into the job review platform Jobplanet (www.jobplanet.co.kr), which is a website where employees and former employees anonymously review companies and their management. With web crawling processes, we collected over 40K data points and performed morphological analysis to classify employees' reviews for internal marketing data. We then implemented econometric analysis to see the relationship between internal marketing and market capitalization. Contrary to the findings of extant survey studies, internal marketing is positively related to a firm's market capitalization only within a limited area. In most of the areas, the relationships are negative. Particularly, female-friendly environment and human resource development (HRD) are the areas exhibiting positive relations with market capitalization in the manufacturing industry. In the service industry, most of the areas, such as employ welfare and work-life balance, are negatively related with market capitalization. When firm size is small (or the history is short), female-friendly environment positively affect firm performance. On the contrary, when firm size is big (or the history is long), most of the internal marketing factors are either negative or insignificant. We explain the theoretical contributions and managerial implications with these results.

Econometric Analysis on Factors of Food Demand in the Household : Comparative Study between Korea and Japan (가계 식품수요 요인의 계량분석 - 한국과 일본의 비교 -)

  • Jho, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.371-383
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    • 1999
  • This report gave analysis of food demand both in Korea and Japan through introducing the concept of cohort analysis to the conventional demand model. This research was done to clarify the factors which determine food demand of the household. The traits of the new model for demand analysis are to consider and quantify those effects on food demand not only of economic factors such as expenditure and price but also of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of the householder. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: 1) The comparison of the item-wise elasticities of food demand demonstrates that the expenditure elasticity is higher in Korea than in Japan and that the expenditure elasticity is -0.1 for cereal and more than 1 for eating-out in both countries. In respect to price elasticity, the absolute values of all the items except alcohol and cooked food are higher in the Korea than in Japan, and especially the price elasticities of beverages, dairy products and fruit are predominantly higher in Japan. In this way, both expenditure and price elasticities of a large number of items are higher in Korea than in Japan, which may be explained from the fact that the level of expenditure is higher in Japan than in Korea. 2) In both of Korea and Japan, as the householder grows older, the expenditure for each item increases and the composition of expenditure changes in such a way that these moves may be regarded as due to the age effect. However, there are both similarities and differences in the details of such moves between Korea and Japan. Those two countries have this trait in common that the young age groups of the householder spend more on dairy products and middle age groups spend more on cake than other age groups. In the Korea, however, there can be seen a certain trend that higher age groups spend more on a large number of items, reflecting the fact that there are more two-generation families in higher age groups. Japan differs from Korea in that expenditure in Japan is diversified, depending upon the age group. For example, in Japan, middle age groups spend more on cake, cereal, high-caloric food like meat and eating-out while older age groups spend more for Japanese-style food like fish/shellfish and vegetable/seaweed, and cooked food. 3) The effect of the birth cohort effect was also demonstrated. The birth cohort effect was introduced under the supposition that the food circumstances under which the householder was born and brought up would determine the current expenditure. Thus, the following was made clear: older generations in both countries placed more emphasis upon stable food in their composition of food consumption; the share of livestock products, oil/fats and externalized food was higher in the food composition of younger generation; differences in food composition among generations were extremely large in Korea while they were relatively small in Japan; and Westernization and externalization of diet made rapid increases simultaneously with generation changes in Korea while they made any gradual increases in Japan during the same time period. 4) The four major factors which impact the long-term change of food demand of the household are expenditure, price, the age of the householder, and the birth cohort of the householder. Investigations were made as to which factor had the largest impact. As a result, it was found that the price effect was the smallest in both countries, and that the relative importance of the factor-by-factor effects differed among the two countries: in Korea the expenditure effect was greater than the effects of age and birth cohort while in Japan the effects of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of householder were greater than those of economic factors such as expenditures.

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