• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.193-201
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• 2016

An anomalous cold-weather period occurred during January 2011 in East Asia, and this study investigates the event by focusing on the blocking phenomena formed at Northeastern Asia. The area of cold weather is determined to represent the characteristic features of abnormal cold temperature. The 2010/11 winter is divided into three periods P1, P2 (cold period), and P3. For the cold area ($30-50^{\circ}N$, $115-135^{\circ}E$) the corresponding cold period P2 is determined to be 39 days from 23 December 2010 through 30 January 2011. During P1 and P3 temperature anomalies from the climatological mean are small with large standard deviation compared to those of P2, which has large negative anomaly and small standard deviation. The period P2 is dominated by blocking, which was determined by distributions of 500-hPa geopotential height and potential temperature on the 2 PVU surface. Correlation-coefficient analyses show that during P2 the temperature in the cold area is related with pressure of Northeastern Asia, while the temperature during P1 and P3 is related with pressure of Northwest of Korea. Also, during P1 and P3 the temperature pattern shows eastward propagation, but during P2, a stationary pattern. All the observations imply that, during the cold period P2, the temperature in the cold area is related with blocking in Northeastern Asia. During P1 and P3 temperature pattern is related with 500-hPa geopotential height in Siberia, and this relationship is also observed in the climatological mean state.

• 대기
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.401-412
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• 2013

East Asia experienced extremely cold weather in January 2011, while the previous December and the following February had normal winter temperature. In this study National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data are used to investigate the characteristic features observed in the meteorological fields such as temperature, sea-level pressure, geopotential height, and wind during this winter period. In January the planetary-wave pattern is dominated by stationary-wave form in the mid-to-high latitude region, while transient waves are significant in the previous month. To understand the planetary-wave features quantitatively, harmonic analyses have been done for the 500-hPa geopotential height field. In the climatological-mean geopotential heights the wave numbers 1, 2, and 3 are dominant during the whole winter. In January 2011 the waves of number 1, 2, and 3 are dominant and stationary as in the climatological-mean field. In December 2010 and February 2011, however, the waves of number 4, 5, and 6 play a major role and show a transient pattern. In addition to the distinctive features in each month the planetary-wave patterns dependent on the latitude are also discussed.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2021

In this study, using 16 ORA-IP (Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project) data, we investigated spatial and temporal changes of net surface heat flux in the East Asian seas and presented a new ensemble net surface heat flux index. The ensemble net surface heat flux index is produced considering the data distribution and the standard deviation of each ORA-IP. From the correlation analysis with air temperature averaged over the Korean Peninsula, ensemble net heat flux around the Korea Strait shows the highest correlation (0.731) with a 3 month time lag. For the correlation study regarding precipitation over the Korean Peninsula, it also shows significant correlation especially in winter and spring seasons. Similar results are also found in comparison with climate indices (AO, PDO, and NINO3.4), but ensemble net surface heat flux data in winter season reveals the strongest correlation patterns especially with winter temperature and spring precipitation.

• 대기
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.117-128
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• 2012

Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly rescaling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability is generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.

• 대기
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.55-68
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• 2007

Future climate changes over East Asia are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G). Climate simulation in the 21st century is conducted with three standard SRES scenarios (A1B, B1, and A2) and the model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment. From the present climate simulation (20C3M), the model reproduced reliable climate state in the most fields, however, cold bias in temperature and dry bias of summer in precipitation occurred. The intercomparison among models using Taylor diagram indicates that ECHO-G/S exhibits smaller mean bias and higher pattern correlation than other nine AOGCMs. Based on SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. Changes of geographical patterns from the present to the future are considerably similar through all the scenarios except for the magnitude difference. The temperature in winter and precipitation in summer show remarkable increase. In spite of the large uncertainty in simulating precipitation by regional scale, we found that the summer (winter) precipitation at eastern coast (north of $40^{\circ}N$) of East Asia has significantly increased. In the 21st century, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. Hence, more enhanced (weakened) land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia in summer (winter) will cause strong (weak) monsoon. In summer, the low pressure located in East Asia becomes deeper and the moisture from the south or southeast is transported more into the land. These result in increasing precipitation amount over East Asia, especially at the coastal region. In winter, the increase (decrease) of precipitation is accompanied by strengthening (weakening) of baroclinicity over the land (sea) of East Asia.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.295-308
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• 2015

Based on the CMIP5 historical simulation datasets, we assessed the performance of state-of-the-art climate models in respect to the relationship between interannual variabilities of the North Pacific synoptic eddy (NPSE) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Observation (ERA-Interim) shows a high negative correlation (-0.73) between the interannual variabilities of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) intensity and North Pacific synoptic eddy (NPSE) activity during the period of 1979~2005. Namely, a stronger (weaker) EAWM is related to a weaker (stronger) synoptic eddy activities over the North Pacific. This strong reverse relationship can be well explained by latitudinal distributions of the surface temperature anomalies over East Asian continent, which leads the variation of local baroclinicity and significantly weakens the baroclinic wave activities over the northern latitudes of $40^{\circ}N$. This feature is supported by the distribution of the meridional heat flux (${\overline{{\nu}^{\prime}{\theta}^{\prime}}}$) anomalies, which have negative (positive) values along the latitudes $40{\sim}50^{\circ}N$ for strong(weak) EAWM years. In this study, the historical simulations by 11 CMIP5 climate models (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) are analyzed for DJF of 1979~2005. Correlation coefficient between the two phenomena is -0.59, which is comparable to that of observation. Model-to-model variation in this relationship is relatively large as the range of correlation coefficient is between -0.76 (HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-AO) and -0.33 (MRI-CGCM3). But, these reverse relationships are shown in all models without any exception. We found that the multi-model ensemble is qualitatively similar to the observation in reasoning (that is, latitudinal distribution of surface temperature anomalies, variation of local baroclinicity and meridional heat flux by synoptic eddies) of the reverse relationship. However, the uncertainty for weak EAWM is much larger than strong EAWM. In conclusion, we suggest that CMIP5 models as an ensemble have a good performance in the simulation of EAWM, NPSE, and their relationship.

• 대기
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.403-417
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• 2014

Future changes in seasonal mean temperature and precipitation over East Asia under anthropogenic global warming are investigated by comparing the historical run for 1979~2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006~2100 with 20 coupled models which participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Although an increase in future temperature over the East Asian monsoon region has been commonly accepted, the prediction of future precipitation under global warming still has considerable uncertainties with a large inter-model spread. Thus, we select best five models, based on the evaluation of models' performance in present climate for boreal summer and winter seasons, to reduce uncertainties in future projection. Overall, the CMIP5 models better simulate climatological temperature and precipitation over East Asia than the phase 3 of CMIP and the five best models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) has better performance than all 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME). Under anthropogenic global warming, significant increases are expected in both temperature and land-ocean thermal contrast over the entire East Asia region during both seasons for near and long term future. The contrast of future precipitation in winter between land and ocean will decrease over East Asia whereas that in summer particularly over the Korean Peninsula, associated with the Changma, will increase. Taking into account model validation and uncertainty estimation, this study has made an effort on providing a more reliable range of future change for temperature and precipitation particularly over the Korean Peninsula than previous studies.

• 대기
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.37-51
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• 2018

In this study, we investigate the performance of Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) in Korea Meteorological Administration on the relationship between El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and East Asian climate for the period of 1991~2010. It is found that the GloSea5 has a great prediction skill of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ whose anomaly correlation coefficients of $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ indices are over 0.96 during winter. The eastern Pacific (EP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and the central Pacific (CP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ are considered and we analyze for EP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$, which is well simulated in GloSea5. The analysis period is divided into the developing phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ summer (JJA(0)), mature phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ winter (D(0)JF(1)), and decaying phase of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ summer (JJA(1)). The GloSea5 simulates the relationship between precipitation and temperature in East Asia and the prediction skill for the East Asian precipitation and temperature varies depending on the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ phase. While the precipitation and temperature are simulated well over the equatorial western Pacific region, there are biases in mid-latitude region during the JJA(0) and JJA(1). Because the low level pressure, wind, and vertical stream function are simulated weakly toward mid-latitude region, though they are similar with observation in low-latitude region. During the D(0)JF(1), the precipitation and temperature patterns analogize with observation in most regions, but there is temperature bias in inland over East Asia. The reason is that the GloSea5 poorly predicts the weakening of Siberian high, even though the shift of Aleutian low is predicted. Overall, the predictability of precipitation and temperature related to El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ in the GloSea5 is considered to be better in D(0)JF(1) than JJA(0) and JJA(1) and better in ocean than in inland region.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• 제26권11호
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• pp.639-648
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• 2023

The sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content in the Korea Waters are gradually increased. Especially the increasing trend of annual mean SST in the Korea Water is higher about 2.6 times than the global mean during past 55 years (1968-2022). Before 2010s, the increasing trend of SST was led by winter season in the Korea Waters. However, this pattern was clearly changed after 2010s. The increasing trend of SST during summer is higher about 3.9 times than during winter after 2010s. We examine the long-term variations of several ocean and climate factors to understand the reasons for the long-term pattern changes of SST between summer and winter in recent. Tsushima warm current was significantly strengthened in summer compare to winter during past 33 years (1986-2018). The long-term patterns of Siberian High and East Asian Winter Monsoon were definitely changed before and after early- or mid-2000s. The intensities of those two climate factors was changed to the increasing trend or weakened decreasing trend from the distinctive decreasing trend. In addition, the extreme weather condition like the heatwave days and cold spell days in the Korea significantly increased since mid- or late-2000s. From these results, we can consider that the occurrences of frequent and intensified marine heatwaves during summer and marine cold spells during winter in the Korea Waters might be related with the long-term pattern change of SST, which should be caused by the long-term change of climate factors and advection heat, in a few decade.

• 대기
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.79-91
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• 2017

It is imperative to understand the characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns under the climate system due to its impact on climatic factors. Thus this study focused on analyzing the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the relationship between precipitation and temperature regionally. Here we used monthly gridded observational data (i.e., CRU-TS3.2, NOAA-20CR V2c) and HadGEM2-AO climate model by RCP8.5, for the period of 1960~1999 and 2060~2099. The experiment results indicated that the negative relationship was presented over East Asia and Europe during summer. On the other hand, at around Korea (i.e. EA1: $31^{\circ}N{\sim}38^{\circ}N$, $126^{\circ}E{\sim}140^{\circ}E$) and Northwestern Europe (i.e. EU1: $48^{\circ}N{\sim}55^{\circ}N$, $0^{\circ}E{\sim}16^{\circ}E$) in winter, strong positive relationship dominate due to warm moist advection come from ocean related to intensity variation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. It was found that values of positive relation in EA1 and EU1 at the end of the 21st century is regionally greater than at the end of 20th century during winter since magnitude of variation of the EAWM and NAO is projected to be greater in the future as result of simulation with RCP 8.5. Future summer, the negative correlations are weakened in EA1 region while strengthened in EU1 region. For better understanding of correlations with respect to RCP scenarios, a further study is required.