• Title/Summary/Keyword: Earthquake prediction

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Structural Integrity of PWR Fuel Assembly for Earthquake

  • Jhung, M.J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.212-221
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    • 1998
  • In the present study, a method for the dynamic analysis of a reactor core is developed. Peak responses for the motions induced from earthquake are obtained for a core model. The dynamic responses such as fuel assembly shear force, bending moment, axial force and displacement, and spacer grid impact loads are investigated. Prediction of fuel assembly stress during an earthquake requires development of a fuel assembly stress analysis model capable of interfacing with the models and results discussed in the dynamic analysis of a reactor core. This analysis uses beam characteristics which describe the overall fuel assembly response. The stress analysis method and its application for the case of an increased seismic level are also presented.

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The prediction of the critical factor of safety of homogeneous finite slopes subjected to earthquake forces using neural networks and multiple regressions

  • Erzin, Yusuf;Cetin, T.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2014
  • In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple regression (MR) models were developed to predict the critical factor of safety ($F_s$) of the homogeneous finite slopes subjected to earthquake forces. To achieve this, the values of $F_s$ in 5184 nos. of homogeneous finite slopes having different slope, soil and earthquake parameters were calculated by using the Simplified Bishop method and the minimum (critical) $F_s$ for each of the case was determined and used in the development of the ANN and MR models. The results obtained from both the models were compared with those obtained from the calculations. It is found that the ANN model exhibits more reliable predictions than the MR model. Moreover, several performance indices such as the determination coefficient, variance account for, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and the scaled percent error were computed. Also, the receiver operating curves were drawn, and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated to assess the prediction capacity of the ANN and MR models developed. The performance level attained in the ANN model shows that the ANN model developed can be used for predicting the critical $F_s$ of the homogeneous finite slopes subjected to earthquake forces.

Liquefaction Susceptibility of Quay Walls to Earthquake Loadings (지진으로 인한 안벽의 액상화 위험도 평가)

  • 권오순;박우선;윤길림
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.27-38
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    • 2000
  • The collapses and settlement of harbor facilities from earthquakes were known due mostly to liquefaction of reclaimed land. The most harbor quay wa1ls being designed as gravity types in Korea are known susceptible structures to liquefaction because reclaimed land was not treated resistant to earthquake. In this study, liquefaction susceptibility of reclaimed land behind a large quay walls under construction to earthquake was predicted and its stability was analyzed. In addition, liquefaction prediction methods in harbor facilities specification adopted by both Korea and Japan were compared by applying the methods to prediction of liquefaction susceptibility of reclaimed land, respectively.

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A Study on Lateral Bearing Capacity of PHC Piles Driven Vertically in Decomposed Granite and Clayey Soil (화강토와 점토지반에 연직으로 타입된 PHC말뚝의 수평지지력에 관한 연구(지반공학))

  • 문영민;이문수;이대재
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.466-470
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    • 2000
  • Recently, the calculation of horizontal bearing capacity of piles foundation has been considered very important for earthquake or wind resistant design in Korea. This study deals with the lateral resistance of PHC pile instead of vertical capacity for earthquake resistant design as well as wind. As case study, the prediction values were compared with measured ones based on ASTM. During this research, Matlock & Reese, Davisson & Gill, Broms and Chang's methods were selected in calculating prediction of lateral resistance of PHC piles. In decomposed granite and clayey soils, The result showed that prediction values proposed by Matlock & Reese(Davisson & Gill), Chang and Broms were smaller values than real values. four proposed methods by Matlock & Reese(Davisson & Gill) and Chang based on lateral deflection and Broms by ultimate lateral resistance turned out valid in view of engineering practice.

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Modified Disturbed State Concept for Dynamic Behaviors of Fully Saturated Sands (포화사질토의 동적거동규명을 위한 수정 교란상태개념)

  • 최재순;김수일
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2003
  • There are many problems in the prediction of dynamic behaviors of saturated soils because undrained excess pore water pressure builds up and then the strain softening behavior is occurred simultaneously. A few analytical constitutive models based on the effective stress concept have been proposed but most models hardly predict the excess pore water pressure and strain softening behaviors correctly In this study, the disturbed state concept (DSC) model proposed by Dr, Desai was modified to predict the saturated soil behaviors under the dynamic loads. Also, back-prediction program was developed for verification of modified DSC model. Cyclic triaxial tests were carried out to determine DSC parameters and test result was compared with the result of back-prediction. Through this research, it is proved that the proposed model based on the modified disturbed state concept can predict the realistic soil dynamic characteristics such as stress degradation and strain softening behavior according to dynamic process of excess pore water pressure.

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Groundwater Level Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm (ANFIS 알고리즘을 이용한 지하수수위 예측)

  • Bak, Gwi-Man;Bae, Young-Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1235-1240
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    • 2019
  • It is well known that the ground water level changes rapidly before and after the earthquake, and the variation of ground water level prediction is used to predict the earthquake. In this paper, we predict the ground water level in Miryang City using ANFIS algorithm for earthquake prediction. For this purpose, this paper used precipitation and temperature acquired from National Weather Service and data of underground water level from Rural Groundwater Observation Network of Korea Rural Community Corporation which is installed in Miryang city, Gyeongsangnam-do. We measure the prediction accuracy using RMSE and MAPE calculation methods. As a result of the prediction, the periodic pattern was predicted by natural factors, but the change value of ground water level was changed by other variables such as artificial factors that was not detected. To solve this problem, it is necessary to digitize the ground water level by numerically quantifying artificial variables, and to measure the precipitation and pressure according to the exact location of the observation ball measuring the ground water level.

Seismic Research Network in KIGAM (한국자원연구소 지진 네트워크)

  • 이희일
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2000
  • Instrumental observation of earth quakes in KIGAM was first attempted in the earty 1980`s by using 6 portable seismographs in the vicinity of Yang-San Faults. Now twenty-four permanent stations, which are equipped with short-period or broad-band seismometer, are included in seismic research network in KIGAM, including KSRS array station in Wonju which is consisted of 26 bore-hole stations. The seismic network of KIGAM is also linked to that of KEPRI(Korea Electric Power Research Institute)which is consisted of eight stations installed within and around the nuclear power plants. Owing to real-time data acquisition by telemetry, it became feasible to automatically locate hypocenters of the local events within fifteen minutes by computer data processing system, named KEMS(Korea Earthquake Monitoring System). Results of the hypocenter determination, together with observational data, are compiled and stored in the data base system. And they are published via web site whose URL is http://quake.kigam.re.kr KIGAM is also running t재 permanent geomagnetic stations installed in Daejun and Kyungju. The observed geomagnetic data are transmitted to Earthquake Research Centre in KIGAM by seismic network and compiled for the purpose of earthquake prediction research and other basic geophysical research.

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Establishment of Korea Integrated Seismic System (KISS) (통합 지진네트워크 구축)

  • 이희일;지헌철;임인섭;조창수;류용규
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2002
  • The four agencies in Korea - KMA, KIGAM, KEPRI, and KINS - have been operating their own seismic network for many years. In this study we have developed an integrated seismic system named KISS (Korea Integrated Seismic System), which is very similar to LISS (Live Internet Seismic Server) of Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory. Through KISS we could share all the earthquake data observed by those organizations in near real time. This research result will lead to provide the opportunity to use all seismic information of the earthquakes around Korean peninsula. And KISS will make us enable to do systematic researches, such as study on focal mechanisms of earthquakes around Korean peninsula, seismic design, earthquake prediction, etc. KISS will be used in developing an Early Earthquake Warning System like TriNet in Southern California, USA so as to minimize seismic hazard.

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Estimation of b-value for Earthquakes Data Recorded on KSRS (KSRS 관측자료에 의한 b-값 평가)

  • 신진수;강익범;김근영
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2002
  • The b-value in the magnitude-frequency relationship logN(m) = $\alpha$ - bmwhere N(m) is the number of earthquakes exceeding magnitude m, is important seismicity parameter In hazard analysis. Estimation of the b-value for earthquake data observed on KSRS array network is done employing the maximum likelihood technique. Assuming the whole Korea Peninsula as a single seismic source area, the b-value is computed at 0.9. The estimation for KMA earthquake data is also similar to that. Since estimate is a function of minimum magnitude, we can inspect the completeness of earthquake catalog in the fitting process of b-value. KSRS and KMA data lists are probably incomplete for magnitudes less than 2.0 and 3.0, respectively. Examples from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment calculated for a range of b-value show that the small change of b-value has seriously effect on the prediction of ground motion.

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Prediction of Strong Ground Motion in Moderate-Seismicity Regions Using Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios

  • Kang, Tae-Seob
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2007
  • For areas such as the Korean Peninsula, which have moderate seismic activity but no available records of strong ground motion, synthetic seismograms can be used to evaluate ground motion without waiting for a strong earthquake. Such seismograms represent the estimated ground motions expected from a set of possible earthquake scenarios. Local site effects are especially important in assessing the seismic hazard and possible ground motion scenarios for a specific fault. The earthquake source and rupture dynamics can be described as a two-step process of rupture initiation and front propagation controlled by a frictional sliding mechanism. The seismic wavefield propagates through heterogeneous geological media and finally undergoes near-surface modulations such as amplification or deamplification. This is a complex system in which various scales of physical phenomena are integrated. A unified approach incorporates multi-scale problems of dynamic rupture, radiated wave propagation, and site effects into an all-in-one model using a three-dimensional, fourth-order, staggered-grid, finite-difference method. The method explains strong ground motions as products of complex systems that can be modified according to a variety of fine-scale rupture scenarios and friction models. A series of such deterministic earthquake scenarios can shed light on the kind of damage that would result and where it would be located.