• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2020

The stochastic point-source model has been widely used in generating artificial ground motions, which can be used to develop a ground motion prediction equation and to evaluate the seismic risk of structures. This model mainly consists of three different functions representing source, path, and site effects. The path effect is used to emulate decay in ground motion in accordance with distance from the source. In the stochastic point-source model, the path attenuation effect is taken into account by using the geometrical attenuation effect and the inelastic attenuation effect. The aim of this study is to develop accurate equations of ground motion attenuation in the Korean peninsula. In this study, attenuation was estimated and validated by using a stochastic point source model and observed ground motion recordings for the Korean peninsula.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2002년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.493-498
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• 2002

The purpose of this report is to show the process of the development of the database of physical and social environments of Iwata City as the basic information for estimation of earthquake disasters and to show the contents of a computer application for handling the database. As the development of GIS in Iwata City, several facts were revealed as the very useful information for the prediction of disasters.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.421-428
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• 2022

본 연구는 2022년 발표한 한국의 제6회 과학기술예측조사와 2019년 발표한 최신의 일본 과학기술예측조사 결과에 주목하여 최근 지질자원 분야에서 국가·사회적으로 높은 기대를 받고 있는 지진재해와 우주이용에 관한 미래기술을 분석하였다. 한국의 2022년 발표한 지진재해 관련 미래기술은 2017년 제시한 지진 예측 및 조기경보 기술 형태와 달리 지진·복합재난 정보기술과 공공데이터 플랫폼으로 제시되었고, 건물·도시의 재난대응 생활밀착 로봇에 적용하는 형태로 제시되었다. 일본 2019년 과학기술예측조사에서는 한국의 3배 수준의 많은 미래기술이 제시되었으며, 지진재해 기술 또한 대규모 지진 예측, 지층 주입에 따른 유발 지진 예측, 전국 액상화 위험 규명, 규모 광역 응력 측정, 사물인터넷(IoT) 혹은 인공지능 관측 영상 분석에 의한 지진 재해 감시·예측 등 상세 기술이 제시되었다. 최신 한국과 일본의 과학기술예측조사의 우주이용 기술은 물/얼음, 헬륨-3, 희토류 금속 등의 자원을 채굴하는 로봇 기술과 달·화성에서 현지자원을 활용한 유인기지 기술 형태로 더욱 구체화되었다. 일본의 기술적 실현시기를 비교해 보면 2019년에 예측한 실현시기가 2015년의 조사결과보다 4~10년 정도 지연되었다. 2019년 이후에도 코로나19 전염병 상황, 2020년 한국과 일본의 탄소중립 선언, 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등 환경변화에 따라 한국과 일본의 미래기술 실현시기의 예측 결과의 불확실성이 더 커질 수 있다. 하지만 앞으로 지질자원 분야에서 정보기술과 연계한 지진재해 및 우주이용 기술에 대한 더욱더 활발한 연구개발이 요구된다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.29-44
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• 2018

A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the Korean Peninsula, especially for South Korea, is developed based on synthetic ground motions generated using a ground motion model derived from instrumental records from 11 recent earthquakes of $M_L$>4.5 in Korea, including the Gyeongju earthquake of Sept. 12. 2016 ($M_L$5.8). PSAs of one standard deviation from the developed GMPE with $M_W$ 6.5 at hypocentral distances of 15 km and 25 km are compared to the design spectrum (soil condition, $S_B$) of the Korean Building Code 2016 (KBC), indicating that: (1) PSAs at short periods around 0.2 sec can be 1.5 times larger than the corresponding KBC PSA, and (2) SD's at periods longer than 2 sec do not exceed 8 cm. Although this comparison of the design spectrum with those of the GMPE developed herein intends to identify the characteristics of the scenario earthquake in a lower-seismicity region such as South Korea, it does not mean that the current design spectrum should be modified accordingly. To develop a design spectrum compatible with the Korean Peninsula, more systematic research using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is necessary in the future.

• 대기
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.259-267
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• 2006

In the present study, the neural network (NN) model with cluster analysis method was developed to predict storm surge in the whole Korean coastal regions with special focuses on the regional extension. The model used in this study is NN model for each cluster (CL-NN) with the cluster analysis. In order to find the optimal clustering of the stations, agglomerative method among hierarchical clustering methods was used. Various stations were clustered each other according to the centroid-linkage criterion and the cluster analysis should stop when the distances between merged groups exceed any criterion. Finally the CL-NN can be constructed for predicting storm surge in the cluster regions. To validate model results, predicted sea level value from CL-NN model was compared with that of conventional harmonic analysis (HA) and of the NN model in each region. The forecast values from NN and CL-NN models show more accuracy with observed data than that of HA. Especially the statistics analysis such as RMSE and correlation coefficient shows little differences between CL-NN and NN model results. These results show that cluster analysis and CL-NN model can be applied in the regional storm surge prediction and developed forecast system.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.119-129
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• 2022

본 논문에서는 최근 경주와 포항에서 심각한 피해를 주며 발생한 지진의 규모를 과거자료에 근거한 통계적 분석방법을 통해 예측하고자 한다. 이를 위해, 조선시대 역사지진 자료중에서 연단위 밀집도가 상대적으로 높은 1392~1771년의 5년 블록 최대 규모 자료를 이용하였다. 이 자료를 기반으로 일반화 극단값(generalized extreme value) 확률분포에 기초한 극단값 이론을 이용하여 조선시대 재현기간별 지진 규모 예측 및 분석을 제시하고자 한다. 일반화 극단값 분포의 모수추정을 위해 최대가능도추정법(maximum likelihood estimation, MLE)과 L-적률추정법(L-moments estimation, LME)을 사용한다. 특히 본 논문에서는 일반화 극단값 분포가 이러한 역사지진 자료에 대한 적절한 분석 모형이 될 수 있음을 적합도 검정(goodness-of-fit test)을 통해 보인다.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2000년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Spring
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• pp.70-80
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• 2000

In order to reduce seismic hazard the characteristics of strong earthquakes are required. In the region where strong earthquakes do not happen frequently the stochastic simulation of strong motion is an alternative way to predict strong motions. this simulation required input parameters such as the quality factor the corner frequency the moment magnitude the stress drop and so on which can be obtained from analyses of records of small and intermediate earthquakes. Using those parameters obtained in the previous work the strong ground motions are predicted employing the stochastic method, . The results are compared to the two observed earthquakes-the Ulsan Offshore Earthquake and the Kyungju Earthquake. Although some deviations are found the predictions are similar to the observed data. Finally we computed attenuation equations for PGA PGV and ground accelerations for some frequencies using the results of predictions. These results can be used for earthquake engineering and more reliable results will come out as earthquake observations continue.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 1990년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.66-71
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• 1990

The prediction and estimation of R/C structure behavior subjected to earthquake type loading is partly based on the experimental results of the monotonically increased cyclic loading, rather than that of the irregularly increased cyclic loading. However, actual earthquake is typical random vibration. In this respect, comparing and analysing experimental test results of R/C specimens subjected to monotonically increased cyclic loading and irregularly increased cyclic loading, this study proposes the research direction of irregularly increased cyclic loading during earthquake.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2002년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.231-238
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• 2002

The AASHTO seismic base isolation design approach has been reviewed and modified to fit the nonlinear static analysis procedure for reinforced concrete structures in a simpler way. Such an adaptation may be possible for the fact that the reinforced concrete under development of damage due to earthquake loading keeps softening to result in period shifting toward longer side. The validity of the proposed approach was verified by applying it to the examples presented in the current state-of-the-practice approach.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 1997년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall 1997
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• pp.249-256
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• 1997

This paper deals with the prediction and the evaluation of the measured seismic responses of the Hualien large-scale seismic test soil-structure system. The predicted analysis was carried out for the model structure by the computer code SASSI utilizing soil properties derived from geotechnical investigations and correlation analysis of recorded earthquake responses of soil. Utilizing the soil properties, seismic responses were predicted and compared with measured ones. The nonlinear effects of soil on structural responses were also evaluated.