• Title/Summary/Keyword: Earthquake prediction

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Probability-based prediction of residual displacement for SDOF using nonlinear static analysis

  • Feng, Zhibin;Gong, Jinxin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.571-584
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    • 2022
  • The residual displacement ratio (RDRs) response spectra have been generally used as an important means to evaluate the post-earthquake repairability, and the ratios of residual to maximum inelastic displacement are considered to be more appropriate for development of the spectra. This methodology, however, assumes that the expected residual displacement can be computed as the product of the RDRs and maximum inelastic displacement, without considering the correlation between these two variables, which inevitably introduces potential systematic error. For providing an adequately accurate estimate of residual displacement, while accounting for the collapse resistance performance prior to the repairability evaluation, a probability-based procedure to estimate the residual displacement demands using the nonlinear static analysis (NSA) is developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. To this end, the energy-based equivalent damping ratio used for NSA is revised to obtain the maximum displacement coincident with the nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) results in the mean sense. Then, the possible systematic error resulted from RDRs spectra methodology is examined based on the NTHA results of SDOF systems. Finally, the statistical relation between the residual displacement and the NSA-based maximum displacement is established. The results indicate that the energy-based equivalent damping ratio will underestimate the damping for short period ranges, and overestimate the damping for longer period ranges. The RDRs spectra methodology generally leads to the results being non-conservative, depending on post-yield stiffness. The proposed approach emphasizes that the repairability evaluation should be based on the premise of no collapse, which matches with the current performance-based seismic assessment procedure.

Seismic Performance Assessment of Circular Reinforced Concrete Bridge Piers with Confinement Steel: II. Performance Assessment (원형 철근콘크리트 교각의 횡방향 철근에 따른 내진성능평가 : II. 성능평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Young-Jin;Kang, Hyeong-Taek;Shin, Hyun-Mock
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.2A
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    • pp.351-361
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    • 2006
  • In this study, nonlinear finite element analysis procedures are presented for the seismic performance assessment of circular reinforced concrete bridge piers with confinement steel. This paper defines a damage index based on the predicted hysteretic behavior of a circular reinforced concrete bridge pier. Damage indices aim to provide a means of quantifying numerically the damage in circular reinforced concrete bridge piers sustained under earthquake loading. The proposed numerical method is applied to circular reinforced concrete bridge piers with confinement steel tested by the authors. The proposed numerical method gives a realistic prediction of seismic performance throughout the loading cycles for several test specimens investigated.

A Study on the Dataset Structure of Digital Twin for Disaster and Safety Management (재난안전관리를 위한 디지털 트윈 데이터셋 구조 연구)

  • Ki-Sook Chung;Woo-Sug Jung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2023
  • The underground utility tunnel is an urban infrastructure that accommodates and manages important facilities such as water and sewage, electricity, and communication in the city, and is a national facility that needs to be protected from disasters such as fire, earthquake, and flooding. In establishing a disaster safety life cycle management system such as prediction, prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, a disaster safety management platform for underground utility tunnel is being developed by utilizing digital twin technology in which advanced ICT technology and data are converged. In this paper, the maturity model for the disaster safety digital twin was reviewed, and the datasets necessary for implementing the digital twin at each stage were defined.

Acceleration data and shape change characteristics of a gravity quay wall according to inclination condition grades

  • Su-Kyeong Geum;Jong-Han Lee;Dohyoung Shin;Jiyoung Min
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.90 no.6
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    • pp.591-600
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    • 2024
  • This study investigated the acceleration response and shape change characteristics of a gravity quay wall according to the magnitude of the applied acceleration. The quay wall was defined as a port facility damaged by the Kobe earthquake. Four experimental scenarios were established based on the inclination condition grades, considered to be a significant defect factor in the quay wall. Then, the shaking table test was conducted using scaled-down quay wall models constructed per each scenario. The ground acceleration was gradually increased from the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.1 g to 0.7 g. After each ground acceleration test, acceleration installed on the wall and backfill ground and inclination on the top of the wall were measured to assess the amplification of peak response acceleration and maximum response amplitude and the change in the inclination of the quay wall. This study also analyzed the separation of the quay wall from the backfill and the crack pattern of the backfill ground according to PGA values and inclination condition grades. The result of this study shows that response acceleration could provide a reasonable prediction for the changes in the inclination of the quay wall and the crack generation and propagation on the backfill from a current inclination condition grade.

Site Monitoring System of Earthquake, Fault and Slope for Nuclear Power Plant Sites (원자력발전소의 부지감시시스템의 운영과 활용)

  • Park, Donghee;Cho, Sung-il;Lee, Yong Hee;Choi, Weon Hack;Lee, Dong Hun;Kim, Hak-sung
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.185-201
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    • 2018
  • Nuclear power plants(NPP) are constructed and operated to ensure safety against natural disasters and man-made disasters in all processes including site selection, site survey, design, construction, and operation. This paper will introduce a series of efforts conducted in Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd., to assure the safety of nuclear power plant against earthquakes and other natural hazards. In particular, the present status of the earthquake, fault, and slope safety monitoring system for nuclear power plants is introduced. A earthquake observatory network for the NPP sites has been built up for nuclear safety and providing adequate seismic design standards for NPP sites by monitoring seismicity in and around NPPs since 1999. The Eupcheon Fault Monitoring System, composed of a strainmeter, seismometer, creepmeter, Global Positioning System, and groundwater meter, was installed to assess the safety of the Wolsung Nuclear Power Plant against earthquakes by monitoring the short- and long-term behavioral characteristics of the Eupcheon fault. Through the analysis of measured data, it was verified that the Eupcheon fault is a relatively stable fault that is not affected by earthquakes occurring around the southeastern part of the Korean peninsula. In addition, it was confirmed that the fault monitoring system could be very useful for seismic safety analysis and earthquake prediction study on the fault. K-SLOPE System for systematic slope monitoring was successfully developed for monitoring of the slope at nuclear power plants. Several kinds of monitoring devices including an inclinometer, tiltmeter, tension-wire, and precipitation gauge were installed on the NPP slope. A macro deformation analysis using terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) was performed for overall slope deformation evaluation.

Efficient Structral Safety Monitoring of Large Structures Using Substructural Identification (부분구조추정법을 이용한 대형구조물의 효율적인 구조안전도 모니터링)

  • 윤정방;이형진
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents substructural identification methods for the assessment of local damages in complex and large structural systems. For this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for a substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. Using the substructural methods, the number of unknown parameters for each identification can be significantly reduced, hence the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. Secondly, the damage index is defined as the ratio of the current stiffness to the baseline value at each element for the damage assessment. The indirect estimation method was performed using the estimated results from the identification of the system matrices from the substructural identification. To demonstrate the proposed techniques, several simulation and experimental example analyses are carried out for structural models of a 2-span truss structure, a 3-span continuous beam model and 3-story building model. The results indicate that the present substructural identification method and damage estimation methods are effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

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An Object-Based Verification Method for Microscale Weather Analysis Module: Application to a Wind Speed Forecasting Model for the Korean Peninsula (미기상해석모듈 출력물의 정확성에 대한 객체기반 검증법: 한반도 풍속예측모형의 정확성 검증에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hea-Jung;Kwak, Hwa-Ryun;Kim, Sang-il;Choi, Young-Jean
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1275-1288
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    • 2015
  • A microscale weather analysis module (about 1km or less) is a microscale numerical weather prediction model designed for operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs such as radiant energy, thermal energy, and humidity. The accuracy of the module is directly related to the usefulness and quality of real-time microscale weather information service in the metropolitan area. This paper suggests an object based verification method useful for spatio-temporal evaluation of the accuracy of the microscale weather analysis module. The method is a graphical method comprised of three steps that constructs a lattice field of evaluation statistics, merges and identifies objects, and evaluates the accuracy of the module. We develop lattice fields using various evaluation spatio-temporal statistics as well as an efficient object identification algorithm that conducts convolution, masking, and merging operations to the lattice fields. A real data application demonstrates the utility of the verification method.

Cyclic Seismic Performance of Reduced Beam Section Steel Moment Connections: Effects of Panel Zone Strength and Beam Web Connection Type (패널존 강도 및 보 웨브 접합방식이 RBS 철골 모멘트접합부의 내진거동에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Cheol-Ho;Jeon, Sang-Woo;Kim, Jin-Ho
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents test results on eight reduced beam section(RBS) steel moment connections. The testing program addressed bolted versus welded web connection and panel zone(PZ) strength as key variables, Specimens with medium PZ strength were designed to promote energy dissipation from both PZ and RBS regions such that the requirement for expensive doublet plates could be reduced. Both strong and medium PZ specimens with a welded web connection were able to provide satisfactory connection rotation capacity for special moment-resisting frames. On the other hand, specimens with a bolted web connection performed poorly due to premature brittle fracture of the beam flange of the weld access hole. If fracture within the beam flange groove weld was avoided using quality welding, the fracture tended to move into the beam flange base metal of the weld access hole. Plausible explanation of a higher incidence of base metal fracture in bolted web specimens was presented. The measured strain data confirmed that the classical beam theory dose not provide reliable shear transfer prediction in the connection. The practice of providing web bolts uniformly along the beam depth was brought into question. Criteria for a balanced PZ strength improves the plastic rotation capacity while reduces the amount of beam distortion ore also proposed.

Modified Similitude Law for Pseudodynamic Test on Small-scale Steel Models (철골 축소모헝의 유사동적실험을 위한 수정된 상사법칙)

  • Kim, Nam-Sik;Kwak, Young-Hak;Chang, Sung-Pil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2003
  • Although there are several experimental techniques to evaluate the seismic behavior and performance of civil structures, small-scale models in mast of physical tests, instead of prototypes or large-scale models, would be used due to a limitation on capacities of testing equipments. However, the inelastic seismic response prediction of small-scale models has some discrepancies inherently because the similitude law is generally derived in the elastic range. Thus, a special attention is required to regard the seismic behavior of small-scale models as one of prototypes. In this paper, differences between prototypes and small-scale models pseudodynamically tested on steel column specimens are investigated and an alternative to minimize them is suggested. In general, small-scale models could have the distorted stiffness induced from some experimental errors on test setup, steel fabrication and so on. Therefore, a modified similitude law considering both a scale factor for length and a stiffness ratio of small-scale model to prototype is proposed. Using the modified similitude law to compensate experimental errors, the pseudodynamic test results from modified small-scale model are much improved as compared with the results of prototype. According to the pseudodynamic test results of small-scale steel models, it can be concluded that the modified similitude law proposed could be effective in simulating the seismic response of prototype structures.

Risk-Targeted Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Concentrically Braced Frames Considering Seismic Hazard (지진재해도를 고려한 철골 보통중심가새골조의 위험도기반 내진성능)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.371-380
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    • 2017
  • The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.