• Title/Summary/Keyword: Early Forecasting

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Correlations of Rice Grain Yields to Radiometric Estimates of Canopy Biomass as a Function of Growth Stage, : Hand-Held Radiometric Measurements of Two of the Thematic Mapper's Spectral Bands Indicate that the Forecasting of Rice Grain Yields is Feasible at Early to Mid Canopy Development Stages

  • Yang, Young-Kyu;Miller, Lee-D.
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.63-87
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    • 1985
  • Considerable experience has been reported on the use of spectral data to measure the canopy biomass of dryland grain crops and the use of these estimates to forecast subsequent grain yield. These basic procedures were retested to assess the use of the general process to forecasting grain yield for paddy rice. The use of the ratio of a multiband radiometer simulation of Thematic Mapper band 4(.76 to .90 .mu.m) divided by band 3 (.63 to .69 .mu.m) was tested to estimate the canopy biomass of paddy rice as a function of the stage of development of the rice. The correlation was found to be greatest (R = .94) at panicle differentiation about midway through the development cycle of the rice canopy. The use of this ratio of two spectral bands as a surrogate for canopy biomass was then tested for its correlation against final grain yield. These spectral estimates of canopy biomass produced the highest correlations with final grain yield (R = .87) when measured at the canopy development stages of panicle differentiation and heading. The impact of varying the amounts of supplemental nitrogen on the use of spectral measuremants of canopy biomass to estimate grain yield was also determined. The effect of the development of a significant amount of weed biomass in the rice canopy was also clearly detected.

Prediction of Low Level Wind Shear Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model at the Jeju International Airport, Korea (고해상도 수치모델을 이용한 제주국제공항 저층급변풍 예측)

  • Kim, Geun-Hoi;Choi, Hee-Wook;Seok, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.88-95
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    • 2021
  • In aviation meteorology, the low level wind shear is defined as a sudden change of head windbelow 1600 feet that can affect the departing and landing of the aircraft. Jeju International Airport is an area where low level wind shear is frequently occurred by Mt. Halla. Forecasting of such wind shear would be useful in providing early warnings to aircraft. In this study, we investigated the performance of statistical downscaling model, called Korea Meteorological Administration Post-processing (KMAP) with a 100 m resolution in forecasting wind shear by the complex terrain. The wind shear forecasts was produced by calculating the wind differences between stations aligned with the runways. Two typical wind shear cases caused by complex terrain are validated by comparing to Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). This has been shown to have a good performance for describing air currents caused by terrain.

Development of an Aerial Precision Forecasting Techniques for the Pine Wilt Disease Damaged Area Based on GIS and GPS (GIS와 GPS를 이용한 소나무재선충병 피해지 항공정밀예찰 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Joon-Bum;Kim, Dong-Yun;Park, Nam-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.28-34
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    • 2010
  • The spatial distribution characteristics of damaged trees by the pine wilt disease appear scattered spots spreading from single dead trees. That is the reason why it is difficult to early detect damage and to prevent from extensive damage. Thus, it is very important to forecast and analyze the damage occurrences, to establish strategies for prevention, and to supervise them. However, conventional survey which observes around roads or residential areas by naked eyes was impossible to investigate completely, missing target areas and dangerous areas. Therefore, aerial forecasting techniques on the damaged area were developed using GIS, GPS, and helicopters for an accurate observation of systematic and scientific approach in this study. Moreover, advantages of the techniques application were confirmed to survey 972 dead tree samples at 349 position-coordinates in 32 cities (about $28,810km^2$), 2005. This study is expected to apply widely to find dead trees and the causes, particularly by pine wilt disease.

A Study on Development of Maintenance Cost Estimation System for BTL Project of Education Facilities Using Optimization Methodology (최적화기법을 활용한 교육시설물 BTL 사업 운영관리비용 비용예측 시스템 개발 기초연구)

  • Cho, Chang-Yeon;Son, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jea-On
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 2009
  • BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) Project for Education Facilities are contracted as a package which consists of several education facilities. The general maintenance period of BTL project for education facilities is 20 years. Thus, total cost variation largely depends on the accuracy of the maintenance cost forecasting in the early stage in the life cycle of the BTL Project. This research develops a cost forecasting system using complete linkage algorithm and branch & bound algorithm to help in finding optimal bundling combination. This system helps owner's decision-making to estimate the total project cost with various constraints changing. The result of this research suggests more reasonable and effective forecasting model for the maintenance facilities package in the BTL project.

A Study on the Verification of water level criteria for forecasting system of reservoir failure (저수지 붕괴예보 시스템의 수위기준 검증 연구)

  • Lee, Baeg;Choi, Byounghan
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.51-55
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    • 2019
  • The loss of safety for reservoirs brought about by climate change and facility aging leads to reservoir failures, which results in the loss of lives and property damage in downstream areas. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a Reservoir Failure Forecasting System for downstream residents to detect the early signs of failure (with sensors) in real-time and perform safety management to prevent and minimize possible damage. For the verification of established water level management criteria, 10 water level data up to reservoir capacity was selected. Weight factor and trend line were applied to dramatic increase section of water level in the 1 year period data. The results shows that water level criteria based on three even parts shows less than 7% of standard deviation and it is appropriate to verify management criteria.

A Conceptual Design of Knowledge-based Real-time Cyber-threat Early Warning System (지식기반 실시간 사이버위협 조기 예.경보시스템)

  • Lee, Dong-Hwi;Lee, Sang-Ho;J. Kim, Kui-Nam
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2006
  • The exponential increase of malicious and criminal activities in cyber space is posing serious threat which could destabilize the foundation of modem information society. In particular, unexpected network paralysis or break-down created by the spread of malicious traffic could cause confusion and disorder in a nationwide scale, and unless effective countermeasures against such unexpected attacks are formulated in time, this could develop into a catastrophic condition. As a result, there has been vigorous effort and search to develop a functional state-level cyber-threat early-warning system however, the efforts have not yielded satisfying results or created plausible alternatives to date, due to the insufficiency of the existing system and technical difficulties. The existing cyber-threat forecasting and early-warning depend on the individual experience and ability of security manager whose decision is based on the limited security data collected from ESM (Enterprise Security Management) and TMS (Threat Management System). Consequently, this could result in a disastrous warning failure against a variety of unknown and unpredictable attacks. It is, therefore, the aim of this research to offer a conceptual design for "Knowledge-based Real-Time Cyber-Threat Early-Warning System" in order to counter increasinf threat of malicious and criminal activities in cyber suace, and promote further academic researches into developing a comprehensive real-time cyber-threat early-warning system to counter a variety of potential present and future cyber-attacks.

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A Case Study of Modified Real Options Valuation Model for Early Stage Start-Ups in the Game Industry (초기 게임개발사 가치평가 모형 사례 연구)

  • Yoo, Changsok;Jung, Jaeki;Poe, Baek
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2014
  • Real options valuation models are now proved as a effective valuation method both in Theoretically and empirically. However, to use real options model for early stage start-ups, additional non-financial information is crucial in the valuation process. Previous studies theoretically suggested the modified real options valuation model and process to use non-financial information in the valuation of early stage startups, but there is no empirical evidence on the suggested model. Therefore, this study investigated the effectiveness of the modified real options valuation model using a case study. The case study result showed that the modified real options valuation effectively reflect the non-financial information in early stage startups, and decrease the forecasting error in the valuation process.

Effect of ages and season temperatures on bi-surface shear behavior of HESUHPC-NSC composite

  • Yang Zhang;Yanping Zhu;Pengfei Ma;Shuilong He;Xudong Shao
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.359-376
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    • 2023
  • Ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) has become an attractive cast-in-place repairing material for existing engineering structures. The present study aims to investigate age-dependent high-early-strength UHPC (HESUHPC) material properties (i.e., compressive strength, elastic modulus, flexural strength, and tensile strength) as well as interfacial shear properties of HESUHPC-normal strength concrete (NSC) composites cured at different season temperatures (i.e., summer, autumn, and winter). The typical temperatures were kept for at least seven days in different seasons from weather forecasting to guarantee an approximately consistent curing and testing condition (i.e., temperature and relative humidity) for specimens at different ages. The HESUHPC material properties are tested through standardized testing methods, and the interfacial bond performance is tested through a bi-surface shear testing method. The test results quantify the positive development of HESUHPC material properties at the early age, and the increasing amplitude decreases from summer to winter. Three-day mechanical properties in winter (with the lowest curing temperature) still gain more than 60% of the 28-day mechanical properties, and the impact of season temperatures becomes small at the later age. The HESUHPC shrinkage mainly occurs at the early age, and the final shrinkage value is not significant. The HESUHPC-NSC interface exhibits sound shear performance, the interface in most specimens does not fail, and most interfacial shear strengths are higher than the NSC-NSC composite. The HESUHPC-NSC composites at the shear failure do not exhibit a large relative slip and present a significant brittleness at the failure. The typical failures are characterized by thin-layer NSC debonding near the interface, and NSC pure shear failure. Two load-slip development patterns, and two types of main crack location are identified for the HESUHPC-NSC composites tested in different ages and seasons. In addition, shear capacity of the HESUHPC-NSC composite develops rapidly at the early age, and the increasing amplitude decreases as the season temperature decreases. This study will promote the HESUHPC application in practical engineering as a cast-in-place repairing material subjected to different natural environments.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Water Level Tracking System based on Morphology and Template Matching

  • Ansari, Israfil;Jeong, Yunju;Lee, Yeunghak;Shim, Jaechang
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.1431-1438
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we proposed a river water level detection and tracking of the river or dams based on image processing system. In past, most of the water level detection system used various water sensors. Those water sensors works perfectly but have many drawbacks such as high cost and harsh weather. Water level monitoring system helps in forecasting early river disasters and maintenance of the water body area. However, the early river disaster warning system introduces many conflicting requirements. Surveillance camera based water level detection system depends on either the area of interest from the water body or on optical flow algorithm. This proposed system is focused on water scaling area of a river or dam to detect water level. After the detection of scale area from water body, the proposed algorithm will immediately focus on the digits available on that area. Using the numbers on the scale, water level of the river is predicted. This proposed system is successfully tested on different water bodies to detect the water level area and predicted the water level.