• Title/Summary/Keyword: Duration Estimate Method

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A STUDY ON DURATION ESTIMATE METHOD USING STOCHASTIC MODEL IN THE BIM ENVIRONMENT

  • Jae H. Park;Seok H. Yun;Joon H. Paek
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1209-1215
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    • 2009
  • Recently, Construction Projects are being much bigger and more complex. So the importance of Construction Planning and Management is increasing and increasing because of the Construction Projects is involved in a variety of construction-related subjects. Competitive of the Construction Industry decided Cost, Construction Duration and Productivity. But they were just focused on Cost Saving instead of Construction Duration and Productivity. However, they have to finish construction projects using minimum cost and duration with quality and function of required level for successful Construction projects. Thus, current high exchange rate and high period, it is clear to decrease construction cost and to do economic construction in huge Construction Projects and it means more advanced Construction Schedule Management needs for economic construction. But Construction Scheduling Planning, basic of Construction Schedule Management, adjusted contract period without Pre-Planning, just depending on experience and ability of Construction Engineer. Because of that, this study suggests new Duration Estimate Method using Stochastic Model in BIM Environment for advanced Construction Schedule Management. Existing Duration Estimate Methods are just modified wrong points of them or analyzed effective factors of construction schedule. However, New Duration Estimate Method is just consists of Stochastic Model and BIM Environment without existing Duration Estimate Methods. So, new method has creativity and specialty. After this research, it would be a great model in construction industry field.

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The Estimations of A Conceptual Time Distribution of Rainfall and Design Flood (강우의 개념적 시간분포와 설계홍수량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Byung Woon;Jang Dae Won;Kim Hung Soo;Seoh Byung Ha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.937-942
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    • 2005
  • It is necessary to estimate the runoff hydrograph and peak flood discharge using law of probability for synthetic flood control policy and design of hydraulic structures. Rainfall analysis is needed in the process of peak flood discharge estimation and the time distribution of a design rainfall is a very important process in the analysis. In this study, we estimate design flood for a small urban basin and a rural basin of medium scale which have different travel times. The Huff method is widely used in Korea for the time distribution of design rainfall to estimate design flood. So, we use Huff method and a conceptual method which is suggested in this study for the comparative purpose. The 100-year frequency rainfall is used to estimate design flood for each basin and the design flood is compared with the existing design flood. As the result, the design flood is overestimated $14.6m^3/sec$ by Huff method and is underestimated $70.9m^3/sec$ by a conceptual method for the rural basin. For the small urban basin, the design flood is excessively overestimated $294.65m^3/sec$ by Huff method and is overestimated $173m^3/sec$ by a conceptual method. The reason of excessive overestimation by Huff method in the small urban basin is that the increased rate of rainfall intensity according to the decrease of duration is large and the duration exceeds the time of concentration when the increased rainfall intensity is concentrated in a quartile. Therefore, we suggested a conceptual method for the time distribution of design rainfall by considering the rainless period and duration. Especially, the conceptual method might be useful for the small urban basin with short concentration time which the design flood is overestimated by Huff method.

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A Study on Optimal Duration Estimation for Construction Activity

  • Cho, Bit Na;Kim, Young Hwan;Kim, Min Seo;Jeong, Tae Woon;Kim, Chang Hak;Kang, Leen Seok
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.612-613
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    • 2015
  • As a construction project is recently becoming large-scaled and complex, construction process plan and management for successful performance of a construction project has become more important. Especially a reasonable estimation plan of activity duration is required because the activity duration is directly related to the determination of the entire project duration and budget. However, the activity duration is used to estimate by the experience of a construction manager and past construction records. Furthermore, the prediction of activity duration is more difficult because there is some uncertainty caused by various influencing factors in a construction project. This study suggests an estimation model of construction activity duration using neural network theory for a more systematic and objective estimation of each activity duration. Because suggested model estimates the activity duration by a reasonable schedule plan, it is expected to reduce the error between planning duration and actual duration in a construction project. And it can be a more systematic estimation method of activity duration comparing to the estimation method by experience of project manager.

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A Stochastic Simulation Model for Estimating Activity Duration of Super-tall Building Project

  • Minhyuk Jung;Hyun-soo Lea;Moonseo Park;Bogyeong Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.397-402
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    • 2013
  • In super-tall building construction projects, schedule risk factors which vertically change and are not found in the low and middle-rise building construction influence duration of a project by vertical attribute; and it makes hard to estimate activity or overall duration of a construction project. However, the existing duration estimating methods, that are based on quantity and productivity assuming activities of the same work item have the same risk and duration regardless of operation space, are not able to consider the schedule risk factors which change by the altitude of operation space. Therefore, in order to advance accuracy of duration estimation of super-tall building projects, the degree of changes of these risk factors according to altitude should be analyzed and incorporated into a duration estimating method. This research proposes a simulation model using Monte Carlo method for estimating activity duration incorporating schedule risk factors by weather conditions in a super-tall building. The research process is as follows. Firstly, the schedule risk factors in super-tall building are identified through literature and expert reviews, and occurrence of non-working days at high altitude by weather condition is identified as one of the critical schedule risk factors. Secondly, a calculating method of the vertical distributions of the weather factors such as temperature and wind speed is analyzed through literature reviews. Then, a probability distribution of the weather factors is developed using the weather database of the past decade. Thirdly, a simulation model and algorithms for estimating non-working days and duration of each activity is developed using Monte-Carlo method. Finally, sensitivity analysis and a case study are carried out for the validation of the proposed model.

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Survival Analysis for Prognostic Factors of Occupational Low Back Pain (직업성 요통 근로자의 장애기간에 영향을 미치는 요인 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Yun
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: The goals of this research are to find out factors influencing the duration of work-related disability and to present implications for policies to prevent delayed recovery. Method: The subjects of this study were 238 workers who had been proved to be industrial disaster victims for occupational low back pain between January 1 2000 and December 31 2003. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the proportion of duration of disability associated with low back pain, and Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to identify factors predicting it. The model distinguished main symptom variables affecting acute(${\leq}90\;days$) and chronic phase of disability (>90 days). Result: Fifty percent of the workers had not recovered in 408 days. The results of Cox regression show that delayed duration of disability was predicted by diagnosis, pain radiation (in chronic phase), sex, the size and labor union of the workplace, scheduled rest, compensation from the company, and operation. Conclusion: Duration of disability associated with compensated low back pain is influenced not only by factors related to the company and compensation system but also by individual factors. Thus, future efforts to reduce duration of disability may need to take into account all these factors.

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Dietary Intake of Korean Adults Is Not Significantly Affected by Sleep Duration

  • Kim, Young-Ok
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.395-400
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    • 2003
  • This study investigated the effect of sleep duration on food and nutrient intake among adult Koreans. The effects of sleep duration on dietary patterns was studied in 7,370 Korean adults, aged 20 and older, who participated in the 1998 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey in which the 24 hour recall method was used to estimate dietary intake. Sleep duration data from individual subject were collected by interview as a part of a behavior survey. Analysis of variance and Duncan's multiple range test were used to test the differences in food and nutrition intake and sleep duration. Food intakes of the male subjects were not significantly different among three groups. However, there were significant differences observed in intakes of beverage and alcohol among female subjects among the three groups. There were no significant differences observed for nutrient intake by sleep duration for either gender. Unlike the observation from European and American studies, food and nutrient intake of Korean subjects, in general, were not greatly affected by duration of sleep. This result may suggest that dietary habits of Koreans, as affected by sleep, are quite different from those of Europeans & Americans.

Development of the Inter-tidal Exposure Duration Formulae Using Tidal Harmonic Constants (조화상수를 이용한 조간대 노출시간 추정공식 개발)

  • Jeong, Shin Taek;Cho, Hongyeon;Ko, Dong Hui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.319-325
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    • 2012
  • A new formulae for the estimation of the exposure duration in the inter-tidal zone are developed. The exposure duration is one of the most important factors influencing the habitat distribution of the benthic organisms. The formulae can estimate the exposure duration only using the four major tidal harmonic constants available in almost coastal areas. It is easier than the existing method using the frequency analysis of the hourly tidal elevation data. The estimation results by using the formulae suggested in this study are compared with the value by using the observed tidal elevation data analysis in the west coast, Korea. The mean RMS (root-mean squared) errors ranged form 0.8 to 1.4%. It can be used to simply estimate the accurate exposure duration in the region not having the longterm hourly tidal elevation data.

Development of Work Breakdown Structure and Analysis of Precedence Relations by Activity in School Facilities Construction Work (학교시설 건설공사의 작업분류체계 구축 및 단위작업별 선후행 관계 분석)

  • Bang, Jong-Dae;Sohn, Jeong-Rak
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.189-200
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    • 2017
  • The work breakdown structure and the precedence relations by work activity are very important because they are the basic data for estimating the construction duration in the construction work. However, there is no standard to accurately estimate the construction duration since the size of the school facilities construction is smaller than the general construction work. Therefore, some schools are unable to open in March or September and the delay of the construction duration can cause damage to the students. To solve this problem, this study developed a work breakdown structure of school facilities construction work and analyzed the precedence relations by work activities. The work breakdown structure of the school facilities construction is composed of three steps. The operations corresponding to level 1 and level 2 are as follows. (1) 2 preparatory work categories; preparation period and temporary construction. (2) 17 architectural work categories; temporary construction, foundation & pile work, reinforced concrete work, steel roof work, brick work, plaster work, tile work, stone work, waterproof construction, wood work, interior construction, floor work, metal work, roof work, windows construction, glazing work and paint construction. (3) 7 mechanic and fire work categories; outside trunk line work, plumbing work, air-conditioning equipment work, machine room work, city gas plumbing work, sanitation facilities and inspection & test working. (4) 4 civil work categories; wastewater work, drainage work, pavement work and other work. (5) 1 landscaping work categories; planting work. The work breakdown structure was derived from interviews with experts based on the milestones and detailed statements of existing school facilities. The analysis of precedence relations by school facilities work activity utilized PDM(Precedence Diagramming Method)which does not need a dummy and the relations were applied using FS(Finish to Start), FF(Finish to Finish), SS(Start to Start), SF(Start to Finish). The analysis of this study shows that if one work activity is delayed, the entire construction duration may be delayed because the majority of the works are FS relations. Therefore, it is necessary to use the Lag at the appropriate time to estimate the standard construction duration of the school facility construction. Lag is a term used only in the PDM method and it is used to define the relationship between the predecessor and the successor in creating the network milestone. And it means the delay time applied to the two work activities. The results of this study can reasonably estimate the standard construction duration of school facilities and it will contribute to the quality of the school facilities construction.

Design of Uplink Initial Ranging Algorithm for Large-Cell Coverage Fixed Wireless Communication System (광범위 고정형 무선 통신 시스템을 위한 상향 링크 초기 레인징 기법 설계)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hoon;Hwang, Won-Jun;Choi, Hyung-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.37 no.7A
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    • pp.569-580
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, an enhanced initial ranging algorithm for large-cell coverage fixed wireless communication system is proposed. In typical wireless communication system such as WiBro, because a round-trip delay between a transmitter and a receiver is within one OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) symbol duration, a frequency-domain differential correlation method is generally used. However, the conventional method cannot be applied due to an increase of a maximum time delay in large-cell system. In case of an accumulative differential method, estimation errors can occur because of frequent sign transitions. In this paper, therefore, we propose an algorithm which can estimate a total timing offset in a ranging channel structure for 15 km cell. The proposed method can improve performance by sign comparison based sign error correction rule between the estimated values and using a weighting scheme based on channel correlation, the number of accumulations, and the noise reduction effect in normalization process. Also, it can estimate the integer timing offset of symbol duration by comparing peak-powers after compensating for the fractional timing offset of symbol duration.

A Study on Error of Frequence Rainfall Estimates Using Random Variate (무작위변량을 이용한 강우빈도분석시 내외삽오차에 관한 연구)

  • Chai, Han Kyu;Eam, Ki Ok
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.20 no.A
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2000
  • In the study rainfall frequency analysis attemped the many specific property data record duration it is differance from occur to error-term and probability ditribution of concern manifest. error-term analysis of method are fact sample data using method in other hand it is not appear to be fault that sample data of number to be small random variates. Therefore, day-rainfall data: to randomicity consider of this study sample data to the Monte Carlo method by randomize after data recode duration of form was choice method which compared an assumed maternal distribution from splitting frequency analysis consequence. In the conclusion, frequency analysis of chuncheon region rainfall appeared samll RMSE to the Gamma II distribution. In the rainfall frequency analysis estimate RMSE using random variates great transform, RMSE is appear that return period increasing little by little RMSE incresed and data number incresing to RMSE decreseing.

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