• 한국안전학회지
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

Most factories deal with toxic or flammable chemicals in their industrial processes. These hazardous substances pose a risk of leakage due to accidents, such as fire and explosion. In the event of chemical release, massive casualties and property damage can result; hence, quantitative risk prediction and assessment are necessary. Several methods are available for evaluating chemical dispersion in the atmosphere, and most analyses are considered neutral in dispersion models and under far-field wind condition. The foregoing assumption renders a model valid only after a considerable time has elapsed from the moment chemicals are released or dispersed from a source. Hence, an initial dispersion model is required to assess risk quantitatively and predict the extent of damage because the most dangerous locations are those near a leak source. In this study, the dispersion model for initial consequence analysis was developed with three-dimensional unsteady advective diffusion equation. In this expression, instantaneous leakage is assumed as a puff, and wind velocity is considered as a coordinate transform in the solution. To minimize the buoyant force, ethane is used as leaked fuel, and two different diffusion coefficients are introduced. The calculated concentration field with a molecular diffusion coefficient shows a moving circular iso-line in the horizontal plane. The maximum concentration decreases as time progresses and distance increases. In the case of using a coefficient for turbulent diffusion, the dispersion along the wind velocity direction is enhanced, and an elliptic iso-contour line is found. The result yielded by a widely used commercial program, ALOHA, was compared with the end point of the lower explosion limit. In the future, we plan to build a more accurate and general initial risk assessment model by considering the turbulence diffusion and buoyancy effect on dispersion.

• 한국분무공학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.101-106
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• 2015

Gas leakage and dispersion in the underground LNG power plant can lead to serious fire and explosion accident. In this study, computational fluid dynamics simulation was applied to model the dynamic process of gas leakage and dispersion phenomena in a closed space. To analyze the risk assessment factor, such as the flammable volume ratio, transient simulations were carried out for different scenarios. The simulation results visualized the gas distribution with time in the closed space. The flammable volume ratio was introduced for quantitative analysis the fire/explosion probability.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.125-136
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• 2016

In this study, the effects of the mesh barrier on the free dispersion of ammonia were numerically investigated under different atmospheric conditions. This study presents the detail and flow feature of the dispersion of ammonia through the mesh barrier on various free stream conditions to decline and limit the toxic danger of the ammonia. It is assumed that the dispersion of the ammonia occurred through the leakage in the pipeline. Parametric studies were conducted on the performance of the mesh barrier by using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with realizable k-${\varepsilon}$ turbulence model. Numerical simulations of ammonia dispersion in the presence of mesh barrier revealed significant results in a fully turbulent free stream condition. The results clearly show that the flow behavior was found to be a direct result of mesh size and ammonia dispersion is highly influenced by these changes in flow patterns in downstream. In fact, the flow regime becomes laminar as flow passes through mesh barrier. According to the results, the mesh barrier decreased the maximum concentration of the ammonia gas and limited the risk zone (more than 500 ppm) lower than 2 m height. Furthermore, a significant reduction occurs in the slope of the upper boundary of $NH_3$ risk zone distribution at downstream when a mesh barrier is presented. Thus, this device highly restricts the leak distribution of ammonia in the industrial plan.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.353-363
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• 2019

This paper presents a comprehensive simulation and assessment of gas dispersion above sea from a subsea release using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. A 3D CFD model is established to evaluate the behavior of flammable gas above sea, and a jack-up drilling platform is included to illustrate the effect of flammable gas cloud on surface vessels. The simulations include a matrix of scenarios for different surface release rates, distances between surface gas pool and offshore platform, and wind speeds. Based on the established model, the development process of flammable gas cloud above sea is predicted, and the dangerous area generated on offshore platform is assessed. Additionally, the effect of some critical factors on flammable gas dispersion behavior is analyzed. The simulations produce some useful outputs including the detailed parameters of flammable gas cloud and the dangerous area on offshore platform, which are expected to give an educational reference for conducting a prior risk assessment and contingency planning.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.242-256
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 위험물질 누출 사고로 인한 영향을 예측하고 피해를 줄이기 위한 대응 방안으로 기상장(풍향 풍속)과 실제 도시 구조를 고려한 가상의 사고 시나리오를 구축하였다. 위험물질 확산에 대한 시나리오를 기반으로 서울시 강남 지역을 대상으로 보행자 환경에서의 위험특성을 분석하였다. 풍향과 풍속 조건에 따라 48개의 시나리오를 가정하였으며, 스칼라 물질의 확산 특성을 분석하기 위한 위험물질로써 불화수소를 가정하였다. CFD_NIMR_SNU 모델을 이용하여 모의한 기상장(풍향 풍속) 평가를 실시하여 모든 검증 지수가 유효한 범위 내에 나타남을 보였다. 보행자 고도에서 모의된 확산장 분석 결과, 도시의 인공적 구조에 의해 기상장의 조건에 따라 상세 흐름이 변화하며 위험물질이 확산되는 경향에 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다. 또한, 유입류의 풍속이 가장 약한 조건의 경우, 하층에서 유입방향의 역방향으로 흐름이 형성되어 보행자 고도에서의 물질 이동경로가 변화함을 보였다. 본 연구에서는 도시 지역의 난류흐름 형성에 도시의 인공적 구조가 매우 중요한 영향을 미치는 것을 보였다. 본 연구에 사용된 기술은 향후 실제 위험물질을 취급하는 도시 내 산업단지에 확산모의 실험과 보행자 환경에서의 위험성 평가에 유용할 것으로 기대된다.

• International Journal of Safety
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.47-53
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• 2010

The speed difference in mountainous area is known causing traffic conflicts and accidents. Thus, climbing lanes have popularly been installed in mountainous roads around the world. In the present paper, vehicle speeds within and around climbing lanes of Ho-nam and Jung-ang expressway were collected and evaluated. The evaluation was performed in terms of coefficient of variations which represent dispersion of vehicle speed in climbing lanes. Results show that speed dispersion is more significant at segments before and after climbing lanes than those within climbing lanes. The estimated accident risk was evaluated using The Solomon's u-shaped curve. It was identified that the accident risk is also a lot significant at the same segments as much as 2.2 times greater than those of climbing lanes.

• 대한조선학회 특별논문집
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• 대한조선학회 2008년도 특별논문집
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• pp.76-83
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• 2008

New and more efficient propulsion systems are required for LNG carriers. One of the proposed systems is a combination of a gas turbine with a heat recovery steam generator. This system constitutes a novel approach, which needs to be analyzed by system analysis and risk assessment to compensate for the lack of field experience. Of specific concern is the high pressure fuel supply system. This paper describes the dispersion and fire analysis performed to identify for safety and design improvement of proposed system.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.413-420
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• 2022

In this study we adapt discrete weibull regression model for clustered count data. Discrete weibull regression model has an attractive feature that it can handle both under and over dispersion data. We analyzed the eighth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VIII) from 2019 to assess the factors influencing the 1 month outpatient stay in 17 different regions. We compared the results using clustered discrete Weibull regression model with those of Poisson, negative binomial, generalized Poisson and Conway-maxwell Poisson regression models, which are widely used in count data analyses. The results show that the clustered discrete Weibull regression model using random intercept model gives the best fit. Simulation study is also held to investigate the performance of the clustered discrete weibull model under various dispersion setting and zero inflated probabilities. In this paper it is shown that using a random effect with discrete Weibull regression can flexibly model count data with various dispersion without the risk of making wrong assumptions about the data dispersion.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제35권7호
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• pp.946-956
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• 2011

The main objectives of this study are to analyze the leaked gas dispersion and quantify the potential overpressures due to vapor cloud explosions in order to identify the most significant contributors to risk by using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFX & FLACS) for gas fuelled ships. A series of CFD simulations and analyses have been performed for the various gas release scenarios in a closed module, covering different release rates and ventilating methods. This study is specially focused on the LNG FGS (Fuel Gas Supply) system recently developed for the propulsion of VLCC crude oil carriers by shipyards. Most of work presented is discussed on the gas dispersion from leaks in the FGS room, and shows some blast prediction validation examples.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.235-243
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• 2014

Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.